The Mets will have to make the ugly decision to play either Alex Cora or Ruben Tejada at SS in Jose Reyes’ absence.  My first thought was that they’re really, really going to miss Reyes. My second thought was that both players are going to be offensive sinks, so the gains from one to the other are very small at best.  But which guy should they choose?

So, lets turn to the projections for the two players.  I’ve compared the weighted means generated by most recent build of Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system for the two players below.  For years, PECOTA has outperformed the other available projection systems.  However, BP has really been struggling with PECOTA this year while making a long-overdue attempt to modernize their backend architecture.  It seems that they now have enough of the bugs worked out that I’m comfortable using it.

I hate to say it, but those numbers for Cora feel a little optimistic coming off a .251/.320/.310 campaign in 2009.   Cora is on record saying he can do better, and his broken thumbs hurt his offensive output in 2009. I’m sympathetic to this argument, but the fact is that he’s cleared a .320 OBP and a .360 SLG just once in the last six years.  In the other five, I believe, his thumbs were intact.  At Fangraphs, Bill James, CHONE and Marcel put Cora around .250/.320/.340, which is close enough.

CHONE is the only one of the systems hosted by Fangraphs to evaluate Tejada, pegging him for an unimpressive .237/.291/.316 line.  Tejada, lest you forget hit .289/.351/.381 for AA Binghamton in 2009.

Obviously, Tejada, as the younger player by 15 years, is a much better bet to improve.

Defensively, by UZR, Cora has been a few runs below average the last two years, after playing a few runs above average for the preceding three seasons.  Total zone has also not liked Cora’s work defensively recently.  I firmly believe that Tejada would outplay Cora defensively.  A middle infield of Cora and Luis Castillo would be murder on Mike Pelfrey, but not on the grounders pitchers try to generate.

And the Winner is:

The Phillies.  And the Braves.

And Tejada, weakly.

The Mets need Reyes on the field to mount a playoff challenge. In the interim, the Mets can use the final three weeks until Opening Day to figure out whether Tejada’s defensive advantage is as real as I think it is.  Either way, the team will be getting very poor production from their SS position.  Tejada at least makes a lot of contact, so with balls in play, he’ll have a chance to put up a decent batting average for a month.

Other Takes:

Adam Rubin believes it’ll be Tejada on Opening Day.

Ted Berg wants to remind everyone again, and again, how little sense resigning Alex Cora made, especially given that the Mets don’t trust him to play SS in Reyes’ absence.

Kevin Goldstein thinks the Mets should go with Tejada:

This wouldn’t be another case of the Mets curbing the development of some high-ceiling prospect by rushing him to the majors; Tejada is pretty much all he’s ever going to be right now, and he’s certainly not going to be worse than Cora.

In The Star Ledger, Brian Costa writes about Jenrry Mejia’s unusual path into baseball and his former job shining shoes. 

No doubt, Mejia’s a cool story right now. 

Mike Vaccaro dreams about Mejia and Davis and writes that in spring training:

“You are permitted to dream. Some would say required to.”

This one should be decided in a few years.  Morrison hit for less power than Davis, but showed a lot more strike zone control, walking 63 times and striking out just 46 times in 79 games at AA last year.  Still, usually to be an impact 1B, you gotta hit the ball out of the yard.  Freeman, who was just 19 last year, ripped in the FSL (.302/.394/.447) but struggled in AA (.248/.308/.342).  He appears to be at least a year behind Davis, but also makes more contact  (19 K, 11 BB in 41 G at AA). 

According to Adam Rubin, of the Daily News, Jerry Manuel plans to use Jenrry Mejia in short relief spurts for the remainder of spring training. Rubin reports that Manuel wants to see how Mejia reacts to pitching in short relief situations, as supposed to stretching his outings out to starting pitchers length. Rubin also expects Mejia to be in big-league camp through the final week as a reliever.

All I can do is shake my head when I read things like this. This is a classic case of a lame duck manager, that is desperate for solutions, regardless of future ramifications. Mejia has been completely dominant so far this spring. In 2 appearances Mejia has pitched 5 1/3 innings giving up 2 hits no walks while striking out 5. Its 2 appearances folks, 5 1/3 innings! To think that Mejia is ready for a major league role is ridiculous. The Mets have an asset in Mejia, but he needs time in the minor-leagues to work. In 2009, Mejia had a BB/9 of 3.58, in A+ and AA combined. Then in his AFL experience, Mejia walked 13 in 14 1/3 innings. Mejia needs innings as a starter in the minors to determine if he can ultimately become a big league starting pitcher. Having a dominant starting pitcher is much more important than having a dominant short reliever. The Mets need to look across the street to the Bronx to find out how not to handle a young flame-thrower (Joba).

Thanks to metsblog.com for the picture, you can find more spring training photos here.

Bats/Throws: L/L

Height/Weight: 6’0”/192 lbs

Acquired: 3^rd Rd ’07 (Wake Forest)

Born: 9/4/85 (Wyandotte, MI)

2009 Rank: NR

Why Ranked Here: I think Niesen was my worst miss in last year’s rankings.  I focused on his unimpressive 3.5 BB/9 and 5.87 K/9 in 2008 rather than his solid velocity.  (By the way, I missed him throw when I was in the FSL, and if you’re headed to Florida in July to see baseball, you need to allot about 8 days to see five games and the whole pitching staff.  But we digress…)  So Niesen cleaned up his act, threw more strikes in 2009 and worked his way to AA where he was lights out at the end of the year.  Niesen has above average velocity from the left side.  He’s a very thoughtful guy and at times seems to outthink himself.  He admits that he does better when he stays in the moment and has struggled to control focus in the past.  His curve was useful against minor leaguers but hardly a plus pitch.

2009: As a 23-year old, Niesen’s improvement in the FSL was nice, but hardly the thing that gets prospects noticed.  The way he ended the season by dominating AA hitters does get players noticed.  In his last seven starts for AA Binghamton, he was 3-1 with a 2.40 ERA over 41.1 IP , 29 H, 13 R, 11 ER, 1 HR, 15 BB, and 45 K!  Up, that’s a K/BB of 3 at AA.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Predicting Niesen is so hard, because he’s been so all over the place, but I know I like lefties with velocity.  I see him as a very good lefty reliever, but his late-season run in Binghamton might suggest that he can start in a big league rotation.

Debbie Downer Says: Eh, lets see him have more than two good months.  He’ll be an up-and-down guy who won’t stick in the big leagues.

Projected 2010 Start: Good question.  Western New York for sure.  Buffalo most likely, with Binghamton a 35% chance.  (Ok, I made that number up, but it feels reasonable).

MLB Arrival: Late 2011

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6’2”, 230 lbs

Acquired: NDFA 7/8/06

Born: 10/12/89 (Santo Domingo, DR)

2009 Rank: #7

Why Ranked Here: Pena drops 12 spots down the rankings because he hit a whopping .224/.258/.329 in St. Lucie as a 19-year old.  Last year I had him in the top 10 on the basis of his youth, position and power.  He still has power, with the potential for above or slightly better power in the big leagues from a position that generally contributes little at the plate.  His eight home runs in 2009 are the same number that Josh Thole has hit in his last two US professional seasons spanning his time in St. Lucie, Binghamton, the AFL and the big leagues. However, the rest of Pena’s offensive game is still exceedingly raw.  Pena should repeat the FSL, where he’ll still on the young side for the league, and still younger than almost all of the ballplayers drafted out of college, none of whom have 308 games of professional experience.  For those of you who have done a single-league fantasy draft recently in a reasonably deep league, you understand how precious a catcher who can hit can be.  In this very demanding defensive position, Pena’s power could play.   

2009: Pena struck out in 18.8% of his plate appearances, his lowest rate in his three professional seasons, but also walked an anemic 3.6% of the time.  He simply must start seeing more pitches and working at bats better to be an All-Star.  The Mets have gradually increased Pena’s workload behind the plate in the last three years.  He’s seen action in 103, 105, and 100 games in the last three years, but caught 81, 92 and 100 games in those seasons.    Pena’s work behind the dish took a big step forward as well.  After throwing out 23% of runners in ’07 and ’08 he nailed a very solid 37% of prospective base stealers in 2009.

Dr. Pangloss Says: This is the best of all possible worlds, and I’m not giving up on the idea that with a better approach at the plate, Pena can be an All-Star.

Debbie Downer Says: He’ll never handle the demands of catching every day in the big leagues.

Projected 2010 Start: St. Lucie.  I just can’t see Pena catching everyday in AA.  He belongs in the FSL.

MLB Arrival: September 2013

At Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein has ranked all 30 MLB teams in his annual Organizational Rankings.  He bumped the Mets up from #18 a year ago to #15 this year.  He wrote this:

The system is on the upswing, thanks to a nice group coming from the international market and, for the first time in a while, a draft class (2009) that looks like it will pay some dividends. With four Top 101 prospects and a three-star list that runs into the early teens, there’s room for optimism here.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6’1”/205 lbs

Acquired: 4^th Rd ’07 (Wolfson HS)

Born: 11/2/88 (Jacksonville, FL)

2009 Rank: NR

Why Ranked Here: After a knee injury ended a 2008 that
began slowly with an aggressive assignment, Lucas stayed healthy in
2009, and started to really produce. Lucas features an usually strong approach for a young hitter: he really can
use the whole field and, when he’s going right, is patient at the plate. He credits a youth coach for insisting
that his right-handed hitters learn to hit the ball to right field, and as a result, Lucas lets the ball get deep naturally. However,
he still has plenty of batspeed to get out in front and pull a ball. Lucas is thickly built and naturally strong, but will need to ensure that he does not get any thicker otherwise he’ll have trouble staying at third. At third, he’s still figuring out how to use his arm and body to put himself in the right position. In 2008, the Mets skipped the HS  product from the GCL to the SAL and he struggled in 31 games as a 19-year-old.

2009: In a favorable environment for offense, Lucas ripped through the Appalachian League. His most impressive feat: perhaps his 1:1 K:BB ratio. He ended the season with an unimpressive two weeks in Brooklyn. However, in Brooklyn, I saw Lucas do one of the more impressive things I’d seen from a 20-year old hitter in while. In one AB he drilled a double down the rightfield line, and then in the next hooked a ball into left field.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Lucas’s bat and strength make him very interesting and he could mature into a capable starting 3B.

Debbie Downer Says: He’ll be 21 this year with just one really good month in Kingsport to his credit. He’s
an org guy.

Projected 2010 Start: St. Lucie. The bet here is that the Mets will start Jefry Marte back in Savannah, and jump the older Lucas over him the FSL. This is actually one of the most fascinating questions of the spring with the possibility
that both Lucas and Marte will be headed to Savannah.

MLB Arrival: 2013

Lots of interesting prospect action over the weekend, but we’ll start the week with a push toward finishing up our top prospect series.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6’1”/180 lbs

Acquired: NDFA signed 7/15/06

Born: 12/23/89 (Valencia, VZ)

2009 Rank: 38

Why Ranked Here: Aldama moves up 17 spots from ’09 to ’10 not just because he got some hitters out in the Appalachian League, but
because he did it in a manner which impressed scouts who saw him throw. He can run his fastball, which sits around 91 up to 93. He complements his heater with what one scout described as a “hard true curve ball” which he spins tightly with impressive bite. The
pitch has above average velocity at 77-79 mph but he frequently overthrows it, which leads him to bury the offering in the
dirt. There’s lots of room for growth with Aldama, who was just a teenager in 2009.

2009:
After a pretty lousy July (21.1 IP, 30 H, 20 R, 14 BB, 17 K, 7.12 ERA), Aldama
was much, much better in August (30.1 IP, 8 R, 5 BB, 30 K, 2.37 ERA)

Dr. Pangloss Says: A plus fastball means

Aldama could, in theory be an asset in the rotation or bullpen.

Debbie Downer Says: He’s a young pitcher years away from the big leagues. A lot more could go
wrong than right, and he might never make it.

Projected 2010 Start: Savannah starting rotation

MLB Arrival: 2014

LHP Jonathan Niese continued his strong spring this afternoon against Florida, tossing 2.2 innings (1 ER, 5 K, 2 BB, 3 H). He threw a lot of cutters, a pitch he started working on last year while with B-Mets pitching coach Ricky Bones.

“It’s a new pitch for me and I’m just trying to get consistent with it so I was throwing it a lot … I’m just as confident throwing it as I am with the change-up and curve,” Niese said to SNY during today’s broadcast.

Meanwhile RHP Jenry Mejia continues to open eyes every time he has a baseball in his hands. The 20 year-old made and an electric debut, striking out four in a perfect 2.1 innings of work. His fastball registered as high as 96 mph and had phenomenal movement on his off speed pitches, drawing smiles from both Dan Warthen and Jerry Manuel in the dugout.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6’1”/195 lbs

Acquired: 21^st rd ’07 (UT Arlington)

Born: 4/28/86 (Cleburne, TX)

2009 Rank: 10

Why Ranked Here: Gee drops 12 spots after a lost year in 2009.  He was shut down on May 25 with a shoulder problem, but never looked right with Buffalo after a very heavy workload in 2007 and 2008.  In ’07 between UT-Arlington and Brooklyn, Gee threw 173.2 innings and then in ’08 with St. Lucie, Binghamton and Ponce (PR winter league) he tossed 203 innings.  Both his velocity and location were off to begin 2009.  At his best, he tops out around 91 with strong control and mixes in his breaking ball for strikes.   

2009: Gee won his only game on May 2^nd, but even in a one-run, seven inning effort, he struck out only one batter.  In his final two starts, he walked five on May 17, and then was hit up for four runs on four hits in four innings on the 25^th.  He started throwing again late in the summer, but it was too late to return to game action.

Dr. Pangloss Says: #5 starter/middle reliever

Debbie Downer Says: above average AAA regular

Projected 2010 Start: Buffalo

MLB Arrival: 2010 for a taste, 2011 to stay, if he ever sticks