I did an interview about the minor league system with Will Sommer of Mets Fans Forever. You can read it here. We discussed many of the hot names right now in the system including Brad Holt, Wilmer Flores, Fernando Martinez and Brant Rustich.

I want to explore Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress and the Giants offense in Big Blue’s season-opening win over the Redskins.

Manning was 19-35 for 216 yards and a pick. That’s not great, but it’s not terrible either. Burress, on the other hand, was excellent: a career high 10 receptions, some of which were plenty difficult, for 133 yards. Compare the difference in the table below between what happened when Manning threw to Burress or anyone else on the field.

Giants Receiving on Thursday 9/4

I think the numbers speak for themselves. Burress was that great.

There were three players who were targeted for as many as three incompletions: Burress, Amani Toomer and Brandon Jacobs. The difference is that Toomer caught two balls and Jacobs had one catch.

For more, check out giantsfootballblog.

Note: one incompletion on the 1^st and 10 from the Washington 15 with 4:36 to play in the 1^st quarter does not have an intended receiver listed in the official pxp, so I have left it out of the analysis. I was not in front of a tv at that time, so if you know which receiver Manning was looking for, let me know.

Stars of the Day:

SSA: Chris Schwinden/Jordan Abruzzo & Kirk Nieuwenhuis

… … …Schwinden: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

… … …Abruzzo: 3-4, HR, R, 3 RBI

… … …Nieuwenhuis: 2-4, 2B, R, RBI, SB, CS

Brooklyn (SSA – New York Penn League)

@ Brooklyn Cyclones 5, Hudson Valley Renegades 3

Chris Schwinden (4-1, 2.01) tossed six good innings as the Cyclones won for the 11^th time in 12 games. He gave up two runs on six hits and a while fanning six.

C Jordan Abruzzo was 3-4 with a two-run homer in the fifth inning that extended Brooklyn’s margin to 5-2. Kirk Nieuwenhuis was 2-4 with a double – his 15^th – a stolen base –his 11^th - and a run scored. He also threw out a runner at third. Ike Davis was 2-3 with a walk and a strikeout. He has hits in 11 of his last 13 games.

The Cyclones (45-29) lead the Jamestown Jammers (44-29) for the NYP wild card by one half game with two games to play. The Jammers have three games left including a doubleheader at home against Williamsport (38-34) on Friday.

There’s a terrific article here at the Hardball Times carefully breaking down Brad Holt’s mechanics using video from his time in college.

Wenesday Keith Law Chatted at ESPN.com

Jeff (NYC): should I be excited about Holt and Flores?
Keith Law: Yes, although I still want to see a better second pitch from Holt.

Sure. Everyone does.

John - Philadelphia: Hey Klaw, Thoughts on Jon Niese’s debut last night. Results were pretty rough but that curve looked good at times. Where does he fit in the future?
Keith Law: Four-pitch LHP with a potentially plus-plus curveball. I’d have to say #3 starter with a chance to be a #2 if his command really comes along. He looked like a nervous wreck last night, though.

I’m a little surprised Law is this high on Niese.

mike (NJ): Love your work Keith. Fernando Martinez and Jon Niese or Michael Taylor and Carlos Carrasco, who’d you rather have??
Keith Law: The Mets’ guys, easily.

BA ranked Carasco as the Phillies #1 prospect coming into this year. The 22 year old Taylor, a beast at 6’6” 250 lbs has enjoyed a breakout year split between the SAL and FSL combining for a .346/.412/.557 line with 39 doubles and 19 HR.

Ariel (Albany, NY): Does Bobby parnell have a future in this league? Starter or Reliever
Keith Law: Reliever, potentially a good one.

Jim Callis dropped the bomb of the day, Wednesday ranking Wilmer Flores the Mets #1 prospect in his chat at ESPN.com:

Josh (NC): Mets #1 Prospect-Fernando Martinez or Wilmer Flores?
Jim Callis: Wilmer Flores.

I know at least one more person who shares this opinion.

Nick (Long Island, NY): Brad Holt’s future, starter or reliever?
Jim Callis: Reliever.

CJ (Queens, NY): What do you project for Jon Niese?
Jim Callis: Chance to be a No. 3 starter, but give him some time. He’s not ready to do that yet.

Note that Callis is a little lower on Niese than Keith Law.

Stars of the Day:

SSA: Dock Doyle & Ike Davis

… … …Doyle: 3-5, 2 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI

… … …Davis: 2-4, 2 2B, BB, R, RBI

Brooklyn (SSA – New York Penn League)

Brooklyn Cyclones 9, @ Hudson Valley Renegades 6

Manager Edgar Alfonzo pulled Pedro P. Martinez after the righty allowed four runs in an inning and a third to begin the game.

Brooklyn rallied from 4-0 down to take a 9-4 lead by scoring in every inning from the third to the sixth.

1B Ike Davis drove a pair of doubles, narrowly missing a home run on one at least according to play-by-play man Warner Fuselle’s call. Dock Doyle, who entered the game as a pinch-hitter was 3-5 with two doubles and two RBI. DH Jordan Abruzzo was 3-5 with two doubles as well.

Reese Havens was a late scratch from the lineup.

The Cyclones lead the Jamestown Jammers by 0.5 of a game for the NYP Wild Card spot with three games to play.

Kevin Goldstein took four Mets questions in his chat Wednesday at Baseball Prospectus. My comments are italicized.

J.P. (Hartford): Does Brad Holt start 09 at Bingo, or does he stay in PSL until the weather warms up? And how’s the breaking stuff coming along?

Kevin Goldstein: Look, I love Holt, but no way he’s ready for Double-A, unless you want him to be solely a reliever and move quickly. He’s dominating solely off his fastball — there’s still work to be done.

Yup. No way should he start 2009 in the Binghamton rotation

Shae (Queens, NY): Kevin, Are you excited with what Wilmer Flores has shown this year? Just turning 17, he’s producing at Brooklyn, will he be in the Mets top 10 and what kind of upside does he have? thanks.

Kevin Goldstein: He was in the Mets Top 10 coming INTO the year, at least from me, so he’ll absolutely still be there.

Kevin nailed this before the season and he’s not gonna let you forget it.

Meddler (Brooklyn, NY): Will Mets prospect Dylan Owen start to get some more attention this offseason? He’s had two very good pro years under his belt now. Do his borderline outstanding ratios make up for the little righty with an averagish fastball stigma? What’s his ceiling? Back end big league starter who relies on pitchability more than “stuff”? Or just a Quad-A guy?

Kevin Goldstein: No; No; Not very high; No; Yes. I can’t see him getting much more than a few bullpen innings here and there. He’s not going to miss bats at the upper levels, and Double-A already provided some major issues for him.

I have nothing to add.

Trent (CT): What do you think of Dan Murphy. Would Youkilis be a good comp for him?

Kevin Goldstein: Maybe in the sense that they are both carbon-based lifeforms . . . and bipeds.

HAHA.

Savannah “Wants a Winner” or a Loser…

The opening line of Adam Van Brimmer’s column Tuesday in the Savannah Morning news was, “The Sand Gnats’ new ownership wants a winner.” I’d also like a million dollars, a Mets World Championship, and world peace.

The Gnats contract with the Mets expired with the end of the 2008 season. The Gnats finished 61-76 in 2008 and were 102-170 in two years as a Mets affiliate after going 41-94 in 2007. There are a lot of expiring a-ball contracts in the SAL and MWL so it is hard to predict whether or not the Mets will return to Savannah.

Savannah is a good fit for the Mets. First, it is convenient for the players who can drive from St. Lucie to start the year or back down to Florida if they earn a promotion. Second, the ballpark has a new playing surface and video board and the club has made improvements to the clubhouse which now has a weight room with more improvements on the way. Third, the team is producing a better environment with better crowds.

Now back to Van Brimmer, who continues:

“Futility on the field, meanwhile, leads to futility in the stands. The Gnats hit .250 as a team this season with a league-low 62 home runs. They scored two or fewer runs in 37 of their 76 losses - and three or fewer runs in 11 of their 61 victories.

Nobody makes a point to support a low-scoring loser like the Sand Gnats. Most of the 1,600 fans who came out on average this season were at Grayson for the experience, not the baseball. Promotions such as cheap beer and amenities like kiddie play areas can only attract so many more fans.”

Ok, read the second sentence of that second paragraph again. “Most of the 1,600 fans who came out on average this season were at Grayson for the experience, not the baseball.” That statement is both true, and ruins the rest of this argument. The vast majority of fans go to minor league baseball games because they are wonderful affordable, family friendly entertainment. Few can name more than a handful of players.

The product on the field must match the goods off it to truly impact attendance.

Fine, show me the statistical evidence tying attendance to winning at the minor league level. You can’t, because it doesn’t exist. Minor league attendance is driven by the effectiveness of the minor league team’s front office and the club’s market size. How much fun do fans have at a game? Will they tell their friends and bring their company on a group outing? Are the kids entertained? Is the food at the concessions a solid value? Are there effective salespeople selling group and season tickets? None of this has to do with a winning team on the field.

A few years ago in fact, I did this exact study. I had 60+ years of attendance and win totals for the Stockton Ports franchise going all the way back to 1941. The correlation between team wins in a given year and team wins in year -1 to attendance in year zero was negligible. First half wins correlated slightly better with that year’s attendance, but really, not particularly well at all.

How about this year’s South Atlantic League? The top three teams in attendance were the Lakewood Blue Claws (6,346), Greensboro Grasshoppers (6,297) and the Lexington Legends (5,450). Just one of these teams was over .500 - Lakewood was 80-60. Greensboro was 66-72 and Lexington was a league-worst 45-93.

The bottom three teams in attendance were the Kannapolis Intimidators (1,899), Savannah Sand Gnats (1,624) and the Columbus Catfish (1,022). Kannapolis (67-68) and Columbus (67-69) were within two games of .500.

Star of the Day:

SSA: Jenry Mejia

… … …Mejia: 7 ip, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 2 HR