Wally calls Darrell Ceciliani and Cory Vaughn “can’t miss” guys.  Again.

At Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein focused on Lucas Duda in his look at the Mets farm system this week.  He wrote in part that Duda’s:

…a behemoth with massive raw power, Duda works the count and makes a surprising amount of contact for a slugger, with scouts saying that his statistical line is no mirage. His play in left field is laughable, but
he understands the need to improve, knowing that the presence of rookie first baseman Ike Davis in the big leagues means that the weak outfield corner is his only path to the big leagues…

Duda’s at bats will be right up there with Jenrry Mejia’s offerings are going to be two of the most interesting things to me about the finale to the Mets season.
There’s a key point that Goldstein, and nearly everyone else who’s written about Duda, including me, recently has taken for granted: Ike Davis has first base locked down.  The 23-year old Davis has hit just .248/.331/.419 with 15 home runs.  That’s not good enough.  There’s some case he’ll improve, but his 27.9% K/rate is scary.  Davis is 27th among MLB first basemen in Fangraph’s batting runs.  He hops up to 17th in overall value (1.9 WAR) because he’s been the second-best fielder at the position (+7.4) behind only Justin Morneau.

It’s not going to be easy for Duda to supplant Davis at first, and frankly, no one should be rooting for it.  However, the idea that Davis is clearly the answer at the position is simply wrong.  Davis has done plenty of nice things in 2010, but the numbers make plain that he’s been a below average performer at first base.   Maybe Duda won’t hit much in the big leagues either.  In a perfect Mets world, both Duda and Davis hit enough to deserve everyday jobs on a corner with above average production.  Fans would not only watching good baseball players, but get the extra warm, fuzzy feeling that comes from knowing that they’re homegrown.  Right now, all fans have is the warm fuzzies without the production.

……

In the New York Post, earlier this week, Tim Bontemps argued that the Mets should not have recalled Jenrry Mejia to the big leagues right now.

The more prudent thing to do would be to keep Mejia in the minors, to have him pitch in instructional league and the Arizona Fall League toget to the necessary innings (roughly 125) for him to be a starter for the Mets next season, then prepare to have him as the team’s fifth starter in 2011, giving fans a bright new face to be excited about, one that isn’t tainted by what looks like it will be a rough finish to the 2010 season.

I just don’t buy any of this argument at all.  The question earlier this week was simply whether Mejia was going to start Saturday in Lehigh Valley for Buffalo or for the Mets in Chicago.  After that one start on Saturday, there’s no reason Mejia shouldn’t join the Mets rather than sit around watching the games on TV.
With Buffalo slipping out of the playoff race, it’s not like the Mets moving Mejia to the big leagues for Saturday’s start, was going to deny their affiliate a playoff payday.  So, the question is purely one of development.
As for Mejia, is one more start in AAA going to make much of a difference?  I don’t see it.
On the innings front, Mejia’s has thrown 70 innings between the Majors and minors right now.  If he starts every fifth day for the Mets from now until season’s end, they should be able to get him six more starts.  Lets say he goes five innings a start.  That takes him to 100 innings.  Then, if they wanted to, the team could have him throw a few games in instructs in early October if they were concerned with getting him a little more work.  This is actually preferable to having him throw in Buffalo on Saturday and then shutting it down for a few weeks before getting geared back up for Instructs/AFL.  Also, Mejia threw just 14.1 innings in the AFL.  The AFL is an extremely hard environment for a pitcher’s development.
Mejia won’t be “tainted” by the “rough” end to the Mets 2010 season.  He’ll be thrilled to be living his big league dream.
If you want him to make an impact in 2011, he should throw for the Mets here now in 2010 so that the team has a feel for whether his made enough progress both with his fastball command and his secondary offerings to be a viable option early next year.  I would bet that Mejia’s next month could help shape some of the Mets’ offseason pitching plans.

The “taking it slow” concept sounds nice, but Mejia has blown right past that.

A+:
Tuesday
@ St. Lucie Mets 4, Bradenton Marauders 3 (9 innings)
@ St. Lucie Mets 4, Bradenton Marauders 3 (8 innings – completed Wednesday)

Wednesday
@ St. Lucie Mets 5, Bradenton Marauders 4

Brad Holt in game one Tuesday: 5 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 6 BB, 8 K.  That’s now 52 BB, 58 K in 61.2 IP for him in advanced-a this year.

For a team playing out the string, that’s a lot of baseball in two days.

A
Savannah Sand Gnats 11, @ Greensboro Grasshoppers 0
The Gnats have scored 32 runs in the first three games in this series helped in large part by the CF Matt den Dekker, SS Robbie Shields and 3B Aderlin Rodriguez trio at the top of the order.
Den Dekker was 0-6 on Wednesday, but had multiple hits in each of the first two games of the series and is hitting .384/.448/.512 as a Gnat.
Shields who was 3-4 with two walks on Wednesday homered Monday and Tuesday nights, becoming the first Gnat to homer in back-to-back games all year.  He’s hitting .285/.322/.465 in 35 games with Savannah.  He drew three walks in his first 25 games as a Gnat, but five in his last ten while hitting .333/.409/.641.  So that’s pretty sweet.
Meanwhile, Rodriguez has hit safely in each of his first three games with Savannah (4 H/13 AB) and driven home seven thanks in part to den Dekker and Shields who have been on base for him in seemingly every at bat.

Jimmy Fuller was named the SAL Most Outstanding Pitcher.  He currently leads the SAL in ERA at 1.93, but since he was promoted to St. Lucie on August 5, with 107.1 innings pitched, he’ll fall one start of qualifying for the SAL’s year end leaderboard.

Vermont Lake Monsters 6, @ Brooklyn Cyclones 4- 8 innings- Game 1

@ Brooklyn Cyclones 3, Vermont Lake Monsters 2- 8 innings- Game 2

In game 1, the Cyclones blew a 4-0 lead, as Vermont scored two runs in each of the final three innings.  Chris Hilliard  (5 1/3 IP, 4 hits, 2 er. 2 bb, 2 K) started, but was chased in the the top of the sixth.  Wes Wrenn took the loss as he gave up 4 earned runs on 6 hits, over 2 1/3 innings.  Cory Vaughn 1-3, 3 RBI was the lone bright spot on offense.

In game 2, the Cyclones won in walk-off fashion for the second time in as many nights.  Joe Bonfe (4-4) led off the bottom of the 8th with a single.  William Cherry then laid down a sacrifice bunt, that Vermont pitcher Wilson Eusebio threw wildly, allowing Bonfe to score the winning run.  Bonfe had 4 of  Brooklyns 6 hits.  Five Brooklyn pitchers combined to limit Vermont hitters to 4 hits and 2 runs.  Looks like Johnny Allstaff was in business.

@ Buffalo Bisons 4, SWB Yankees 3 (7 innings)
SWB Yankees 4, @ Buffalo Bisons 1 (7 innings)

The Bisons, at 1-5 in their last six games, have now slipped into third place in the wild card hunt, 4.5 games out of a playoff spot with five games to play.  That’s too bad.
In game one, 2B Justin Turner (.315/.378/.482 – pictured) was 3-4 with a double and a home run, his second straight game with a two-bagger and a blast.  He’s two months younger than Joaquin Arias, has shown more pop at AAA and more patience.  He deserves a chance in September.  If Reyes doesn’t make it back, there should be enough AB to go around.  If not, well, it’ll be an interesting look at organizational priorities.

CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis was 3-3 in game two.  The 23-year old has struggled to a .214/.287/.327 line with 33 strikeouts in his first 25 games in AAA.  Sure, guys can have bad months, but it’s also a pretty good reminder that AAA really is a tougher level than AA.  The strikeouts are the most alarming.  I calculate his BABIP at .308 right now, so he hasn’t been terribly unlucky, he just hasn’t been putting the ball in play enough.  I don’t want to make too much of 98 at bats, but fans have to realize that at this point, he can’t be part of the Mets plans for next year and despite his impressive .289/.337/.510 performance in AA, he still has things to work on in AAA.

Game 2, Josh Stinson: 6 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 2 HR.  Bah.

AA: Binghamton Mets 6, Portland Sea Dogs 5
After taking an 0-3 on Wednesday, 2B Jordany Valdespin is down to .225/.231/.292 in 22 games in AA with one walk and 19 strikeouts.  The 22-year old is headed for the Arizona Fall League this year.  As Adam Rubin noted in his weekly farm report at ESPNNY, “Mets officials hoped to send 2008 first-round pick Reese Havens to the Arizona Fall League, but the second baseman continues to see doctors for persistent oblique injuries and is not expected to be ready to participate.” So, now it’s Valdespin, who’s struggling at AA.
1B Josh Satin, who the Mets moved to first to make room for Valdespin, homered Wednesday.  Satin might not have Valdespin’s speed or hops, but unlike Valdespin, the 25-year old Satin has shown he can hit AA pitching going .311/.399/.487 for Binghamton in 73 games.

After promoting Lucas Duda to the big leagues, Wednesday was a crazy busy day for transactions in the minor league system.  Here are as many as I know about.

3B Zach Lutz was transferred from AA Binghamton to AAA Buffalo.

INF Hector Pellot was promoted from St. Lucie to take Lutz’s place in Binghamton.  Also in Binghamton, recently promoted RHP Eric Beaulac was placed on the DL and Edgar Ramirez was promoted from St. Lucie.

RHP Michael Hebert and 2B Ray Van Gurp were promoted from Kingsport to Savannah.
– The fact that the Mets brought Van Gurp up with the Gnats short on outfields as well, makes me wonder if Alonzo Harris who hasn’t played for a few days, is headed to the DL.

OF ZeErika McQueen and RHP Michael Weldon were transferred from Kingsport to Brooklyn.

RHP Richard Pena and OF  John Semel were moved from Kingsport to St. Lucie.

No, in case you’re wondering the K-Mets don’t have a team left.  Their season ended on Tuesday night.  We’ll be doing some form of season recap.  I don’t know what form it’ll take, but only that it will happen.  Watch for the recaps by affiliate to begin in the third week of September, after the SAL playoffs end.

So, Mets traded Jeff Francouer to the Texas Rangers for INF Joaquin Arias.  That’s a complete win.

How about Joaquin Arias?  Arias was the prospect that the Yankees traded to the Rangers, along with Alfonso Soriano for Alex Rodriguez in 2004.  The trade was initially consummated as a player to be named later, and I heard at the time that the Yankees moved Arias around in spring training to prevent the Rangers from getting a good look at him.  Arias was on the first minor league team I ever worked for, the 2004 Stockton Ports, then the Rangers California League affiliate.  At that time, he was a lanky, toolsy 20 year old with nice fielding actions and some feel for contact with questions about whether he would ever hit for power or show any plate discipline after a season in which he hit .300/.344/.396.  Now, he’s a utility infielder who turn 26 on September 21st, who walks roughly never (4.1% for his big league career) and hits for no power (.093, career) as evidenced by his .276/.290/.347 batting line.  That might be an upgraded on Ruben Tejada, but it should not be good enough to start for a major league team with designs on going to the postseason.

As recently as 2007, Baseball America had Arias ranked as the Rangers’ #6 prospect.  His career thus far has been a great reminder that most prospects, even those who hit .300 in Advanced-A or .315 AA at 21, don’t automatically become valuable big leaguers. Arias, who’s bounced between Arlington and AAA Oklahoma is out of minor league options, so he’ll have to stick on the Mets Major League roster, or they’ll risk losing him.

The other nice part of the Francouer trade is that the Mets promoted Lucas Duda.  As recently as Tuesday, I heard that Duda was not guaranteed to get a big league look in September.  At the time I thought that was silly, in large part because the 24-year old Duda has pounded out a .314/.389/.610 line in 70 games in AAA with 23 doubles and 17 homeruns.  The left-handed hitter has massacred righties at a .348/.421/.663 rate.  He’s a more natural first baseman, who’s played more leftfield than first in the last two years.  In 2008, he played 118 games at first for St. Lucie.  Last year in Binghamton, he played 49 games at first and 42 in the outfield, while this year, he’s up to 95 in the outfield and just 14 at first.  He’s always hit for average and controled the strike zone.  This year, he’s turned his big strong frame into usable game power.

Tuesday was a good day for Mets transactions.  However, as much as I like dispatching Francouer for Arias, it doesn’t solve the Mets second-base problem in 2011 or answer the Mets, who are third from last in the NL in WAR from their hitters, need for offense.  Rather, it’s a crucial first step in determining whether Arias and Duda can help create solutions.