Jim Callis dropped the bomb of the day, Wednesday ranking Wilmer Flores the Mets #1 prospect in his chat at ESPN.com:
Josh (NC): Mets #1 Prospect-Fernando Martinez or Wilmer Flores?
Jim Callis: Wilmer Flores.
I know at least one more person who shares this opinion.
Nick (Long Island, NY): Brad Holt’s future, starter or reliever?
Jim Callis: Reliever.
CJ (Queens, NY): What do you project for Jon Niese?
Jim Callis: Chance to be a No. 3 starter, but give him some time. He’s not ready to do that yet.
Note that Callis is a little lower on Niese than Keith Law.
A few points:
1) The Wilmer vs. Martinez debate will rage on I’m sure, but I give the slight edge over Martinez. Martinez still has not fully developed, but he has played against better competition and is more major-league ready than Wilmer, so I give Martinez the #1 spot barely.
2) I think it’s too soon to deemed Holt a reliever. I say we will have a better idea after he goes through a full-season schedule. From most reports his secondary pitches have shown improvement, so that’s encouraging.
3) I seem to side more with Callis on Niese. #2 seems a bit too high. I think that #3 or #4 starter range is more realistic, but heck I hope he’s a #1 that wins 20 games like I wish on all Mets pitching prospects.
1. I agree.
2. I agree.
3. I agree.
I think Niese’s peak is as a #2 starter because he works can work very complementary to an ace while not having the repertoire of an ace . For example, Santana (ace) is a fastball/changeup guy who’s still considered a borderline power pitcher
Niese complements him by having that nasty curveball among 3 other decent pitches which gives nice diversity to the pitching staff.
*sp. correction “he can work very complementary to an ace”
Toby , Guys im pretty excited with the news in ENDI.com (Puerto Rico newspaper) that Toby Stoner and Nick Evans will play winter ball in my hometown team of Aguadilla PR (same hometown of Delgado). I will have the chance to watch them everyday !
nice
Funny, Callis says RELIEVER for HOLT.
Been my belief since the beginning.
He has an exceptional FB, but that secondary stuff is very below average.
Holt makes the ML as a reliever. He’ll stay in that slot for many years as the set up guy.
Projection: 2010 (touches), 2011 (MLB).
I think you can’t label a prospect one or the other until they’ve had one full season of minor league baseball under their belt, sometimes more for high schoolers.
This is why it takes about 3-5 years to really rate the impact of a draft.
Excellent reliever is a good downside to have. Obviously the hope is that he continues to make progress with his secondary offerings to start…. I think he has a good chance to start, but only time will tell on this.
Callis absolutely despises the Mets. Though, on a random note, he’s been in love with Niese for a long, long time.
Holt has the #1 thing needed to be a good starter. A big time, swing and miss fastball with movement that maintains velocity late into games. The fact that his curve shows a lot of upside is a bonus.
Callis’ opinion also kinda means as much as a pile of dung, since he steals most of his info from preseason BA reports and makes a career of interpreting stats based off of them. And it’s not like BA does much more than pool a handful of scouts that see each guy a few times. Hell, I’ll take Toby’s scouting reports over theirs most of the time.
That’s why I still think of him as a starter. Every time I see video of him I think he’s a clone of Maine. While a pitcher like Maine usually goes only 5 or 6 innings, pitchers like this aren’t suited for the bullpen because bullpen pitchers typically have a lot of speed differentiation on their pitches while both of these pitchers are fastball guys.
Callis has also decided that Fernando’s comps are Garret Anderson and Bobby Abreu. He loves to knock the “NY hype machine.”
I’ll wait until he needs to throw his off speed to succeed before labeling him a future reliever.
That would be NEXT year.
That won’t work with advanced hitters in SAL or FSL.
We’re talking about college kids in NY-PENN who are LEARNING how to hold a WOOD BAT vs someone who has a few years under their belt HITTING with a WOOD BAT.
Holt is a FUTURE reliever and will be successful at it.
His 2nd offering is way behind development for a 21 year old with 3 years of college, but that FB is above average.
Purely opinion!
Toby, I’d be curious to get opinions on when you think the current farm system can help the Mets in different areas. Not individual people, but positional depth. For instance…
I like the depth of potential relievers impacting the Mets later in 2009. Kunz, Parnell, Rustich, and Holt. Even guys like Cleto and Beaulac give such depth that they should be able to be counted on to provide help in some form later next season.
In contrast there is a ‘gap’ from Niese and Parnell, who could help in 2009, to a group of starters who probably cant provide anything to the Mets until 2012 unless Antonini or Moviel take off.
Do you think you could provide some insight on the position players and your opinions on the pitching?
Nate,
I’m not so interested in “depth” as much as I am as particular guys and their individual skillsets and strengths and weaknesses.
Kunz and Parnell are potential bullpen help in 09.
Rustich, Holt, are very unlikely to provide that help in 09. Cleto and Beaulac are not options.
You’re right about the gap in starters at the upper level, although I’ll point out that Gee’s AA numbers (in fewer innings) were better than Antonini’s who allowed 10 HR in 45 innings.
For me, Holt or Rustich would be the next starters (if they’re still starters!) ready to contribute and that wouldn’t be until 2011 for both.
Minor League position players within 2 years of contributing to the MLB team as average or better starters: Fernando Martinez. Carp if you believe enough in his bat….
Davis, Havens or Pena are all a few years away still. Carrera’s still raw, but a terrific athlete so he could come up as a designated late inning catcher (Endy Chavez style).
I always look at depth as a good measure of having some assurity something will pan out. Individuals can get side tracked or flame out… but when you have 3 or 4 someone is more likely to stick. I think we share the same opinion that depth is lacking everywhere except pitching.
It seems like many teams around baseball have pitchers in the big league bullpen who started this year as starters in A+ ball. It would be nice if the Mets could look at Rustich or Holt (even Moviel?) as someone who could take that path next year. The tried and true relievers around MLB are so bad en mass that this idea will take hold more each year imo.
Ofcourse Jon Niese is gonna be a #3 starter for a long time and the 2 reasons are Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana !