1 0 Archive | November, 2008
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Beaulac’s Extra Reason to be Thankful

By Toby Hyde on 30. Nov, 2008

This week, the estate of Robert and Catherine McDevitt donated $50 million to Le Moyne College, more than doubling the university’s endowment.  If you’re like me, the first thing you think about when you hear Le Moyne is, “Oh, that’s Eric Beaulac’s school.”  From the Syracuse Post-Standard:

Le Moyne College in Syracuse has received the largest single donation in its history — and one of the largest ever to a Jesuit-run college or university, the school announced…

So, good for Beaulac, and good for Le Moyne.  Beaulac, the Mets ninth round pick in 2008, who throws in the low 90s with a sharp slider, struck out 60 batters in 48 innings between Kingsport, Brooklyn and Savannah.

I originally found the story in Greg Easterbrook’s TMQ column.

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Martinez Returns to Action

By Toby Hyde on 28. Nov, 2008

After leaving the lineup Monday, and missing Tuesday and Wednesday’s game, with what Mets ProspectHub deduced was “flu-like” symptoms in a hilarious translation via babelfish, Fernando Martinez retuned to the Leones de Escogido lineup on Thanksgiving.  He was 2-4 with an RBI and a pair of strikeouts.

Martinez is now hitting .345/.391/.548  with 4 2B, 2 3B, and 3 HR and 6 BB and 18 SO in 84 AB over 24 games.

Per reader request, here is the babelfish version of the story:

Martinez, who wrote down a race, was replaced by Alex Fernandez, that she batted of 3-2, with a written down race and two pushed. ***Martinez been has affected of a strong gripal virus***

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Enjoy Your Turkey

By Toby Hyde on 26. Nov, 2008

Like so many thousands of Americans I’m traveling home to see family and friends this weekend. Remember to tell those close to you what you’re thankful for.

I expect to check in here at least a few times in the next few days.

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Salfino and Friends on AFL Pitchers

By Toby Hyde on 26. Nov, 2008

Michael Salfino’s scout friend, likes Bobby Parnell in the bullpen.

“I like Parnell better as a reliever, where he could dominate with his fastball and slider; both of which have outstanding movement,” says our scout. “He throws with a bit of effort and doesn’t change speeds real well, so the move [to the pen] would probably boost his peripheral numbers.”

I agree.  Parnell is best suited at the MLB level in the bullpen.

The scout liked Tobi Stoner some.

“I would rate the fastball/cutter/curveball as average pitches, with the slider being slightly below,” our scout says. “Stoner is athletic and has good arm action, but tends to rush through his delivery. He profiles as a long reliever for me.”

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Salfino: Scouting the AFL: Josh Thole

By Toby Hyde on 25. Nov, 2008

Michael Salfino at SNY.tv and friends on Josh Thole:

Our NL scout thinks he has a relatively modest big-league future. “Thole is an extreme contact hitter whose bat plane isn’t conducive to power. Defensively, he’s average: solid receiving skills and average arm strength. I see him more as a platoon catcher given his left-handed bat.”

Thole’s performance record just doesn’t support the platoon player comment.  He hit much better against lefties in a tiny sample in the AFL, but it was a fitting sequel to his performance at St. Lucie in 2008.

Vs. L: .333.386/.432 – 81 AB

Vs. R: .289/.380/.426 – 266 AB

Manuel thinks that defensive assessment is a minority opinion, but agrees with the offensive assessment.

“He’s got a decent swing with a good approach but is just not a guy scouts think will drive the ball consistently for power. Defensively, he’s a backup at best, fringe-average or below-average in most aspects.”

The divergence in opinion about Thole’s defensive capability is very, very interesting.  Manuel is drawing from a wider range of opinions, but the scout is the guy who saw Thole most recently.

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Salfino: More AFL Scouting – Murphy

By Toby Hyde on 25. Nov, 2008

At SNY.tv Michael Salfino caught up with a scout and two Baseball America writers, editor John Manuel and Kary Booher for some Mets prospects chat.

Regarding Daniel Murphy, Salfino and friends cover well trod ground regarding his hitting skills and power potential.  Said Salfino’s scout:

“Murphy has good bat speed, is short to the ball and judges the strike zone, which should allow him to hit for average. But I’m not convinced he is much more than a 15-20 homer hitter. I don’t think his bat is solid enough to play left field.”

And then we get to the big question: what about Murphy’s defense at 2B?

Scout first:

“He is below average at second base with fringe-average range and stiff hands,” says our NL scout. “Third base is his best position.”

Oh man.  I saw Murphy play 3B nearly every day in HWB and it was not MLB level good.  This makes me question whether this scout has ever seen Murphy play 3B.  On the other hand, if he has, and still believes 3B is Murph’s best position, that’s a damning indictment of his play at 2B.

BA joined the skepticism party on Murphy at 2B:

Booher:

“He showed some signs that he might be able to pull it off, but even his fall league manager said he was pretty raw over there. He just may not have enough range and agility.”

Manuel:

“The scouts and Minor League managers I’ve talked to A, believe he’ll hit, B, love his grinder mentality and C, doubt his ability to play second effectively in the Majors.”

I want to emphasize this point: the Mets employed bad defensive 2B in 2008. The issue is not whether Murphy will be a gold glover – he won’t – but whether the sum total of his contributions, with bat and glove – will be bettter than what the Mets would otherwise expect to receive from the position.

There is one decent defensive 2B in Argenis Reyes.  However, his bat is just not MLB caliber.

The two guys, Luis Castillo and Damien Easley, who saw the majority of time at the keystone in 2008 were both very bad defenders.  Neither player had enough chances to qualify among The Hardball Times’ Revised Zone Rating leaderboard.  However, Castillo (.751) was worse than EVERY SINGLE qualified 2B.  Easley beat out three of the qualifiers, but his .795 is nothing to brag about.  By the way, the worst 2B with enough chances to qualify, was … Orlando Hudson.

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Available in the Rule 5: James Skelton

By Toby Hyde on 25. Nov, 2008

This will be the first in a series of pieces taking a look at some of the players that will be available in the MLB phase of the rule 5 draft.

Today, prompted by an email exchange with Ted Berg, we start with C James Skelton of the Detroit Tigers.  Skelton, who turned 23 in October was a 14th round pick in the draft.

Bat: L                Throw: R                  Ht: 5’11″                  WT: 165 lbs.

James Skelton 2008

Team Level G AB AVG OBP SLG 2B HR BB SO BB% SO% TPA
Lakeland A+ 63 212 .307 .468 .406 8 3 64 50 22.70 17.73 282
Erie AA 24 85 .294 .425 .388 2 2 19 23 17.92 21.70 106
West Oahu HWB 21 64 .281 .405 .391 5 0 11 18 13.75 22.50 80
2008   108 361 .303 .456 .401 15 5 94 91 20.09 19.44 468

Mets catchers in 2008 hit .249/.324/.328 with a .703 OPS.  That’s slightly worse than the MLB average of .257/.325/.390/.715.

And Skelton can throw: he through out 35% percent of baserunners, which would have been 3rd in the FSL if he had enough games to qualify among the league leaders.


But Is He Big Enough?

Skelton is listed at 5’11″, 165lbs.  Catchers and major league baseball players just aren’t built that way.

In August at Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein wrote about Skelton this way:

James Skelton, …baffles scouts because there’s just been no precedent for a player like him. ….few players elicit more wide-ranging opinions. He has very little power, and at 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds, he’s bone-thin and just doesn’t look right when he gears up and crouches behind the plate. A scout who has been following Skelton for years remains unsure what to make of him, and finds it nearly impossible (as do many who have seen him), to get past the slender body. “He has me scratching my head twenty times and flipping coins,” joked the scout. “He has a feel for hitting, there’s no question about it, and he has catch-and-throw, receiving, and on-base skills. When you see him, there has to be durability questions—I don’t even think he’s as big as listed.” Asked what could be done, the scout remained baffled, and admitted that he had some hopes of a position change in Skelton’s future. “Hell, if he was a second baseman, I’d love him,” he joked.

The argument goes not that Skelton’s too short to catch, it’s that he’s too light. I examined the height and weight of all the top 20 catchers by VORP in baseball in 2008.  The average top 20 catcher in MLB outweighs Skelton by 50 pounds. These catchers averaged 6′ 1/2″ 216 lbs.

Ivan Rodriguez at 5’9″ 190 lbs was the shortest and lightest of the group. Skelton is listed 25 lbs shy of Rodriguez’s weight while standing two inches taller.

All of the catchers at Skelton’s height or greater weighed at least 195 lbs including Brian Schneider and Kurt Suzuki both of whom are listed at exactly 195.  (When he was in A-ball, I heard more than one scout express concern that Suzuki was too slight to catch everyday.)

Does Skelton really belong at 2B?  On weight along, he would find himself with some more lightweights, but he’s still lighter than every 2B in the VORP top 20.

Height and Weight By Position

  2B SS C
AVG HT 5'11" 6'0" 6'1/2"
AVG WT 192.75 (lbs) 193.75 (lbs) 215.75 (lbs)
MAX WT 210 215 245
MIN WT 170 175 190
STD WT 12.08 12.70 14.71

I love the idea that Skelton might be undervalued because he’s too skinny and does not look like a single above average MLB backstop today.  Of course, maybe this winter, Skelton will discover the virtues of Buffalo Wings, bacon cheese-burgers and protein shakes and will put on enough weight to look like a catcher.

However, despite his obvious ability to make contact and draw walks, the bat doesn’t exactly scream MLB ready.   In some ways Skelton’s offensive profile (contact and discipline) is similar to the Mets own Josh Thole, but to a more extreme degree.  The scouting reports suggest that Skelton is a MLB caliber defender while Thole is still refining his technique behind the dish.  Perhaps most importantly, could the Mets committ to carrying a rookie catcher on the major league roster all year?

You be the judge: Will I ever write the name James Skelton again on this blog after the rule 5 draft?