The Mets should sign Kerry Wood to be their bullpen ace in 2009.
Late last week, the Chicago Cubs foolish traded for Kevin Gregg and then announced that the team would not bring back Kerry Wood, sending Wood out to the open market. Wood had accepted a hometown discount in 2008 to remain a Cub, but now the Cubbies say they aren’t interested. The Mets should be.
The 2008 Numbers
Compare the 2008 performance of the best free agent closers and Bobby Jenks, who has been linked to the Mets in trade rumors, in the table below.
Closer Targets 08-09
| '09 Opening Day Age | IP | RA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/FB % | GB% | FA Type | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wood | 31 | 66.1 | 3.26 | 11.4 | 1.9 | 4.6 | 39.4 | A |
| Rodriguez | 27 | 68.1 | 2.77 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 42.4 | A |
| Fuentes | 33 | 62.2 | 3.16 | 11.78 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 32.6 | A |
| Jenks | 28 | 62.2 | 2.63 | 5.55 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 57.6 | - |
| Hoffman | 41 | 45.1 | 3.77 | 9.13 | 1.8 | 17.1 | 39 | B |
Context:
- Wood’s 66.1 IP in 2008 were the most he’d thrown since 2004. He narrowly edged out his 66.0 from an injury-marred 2005 and fell well shy of the 140.1 he threw in 22 starts in 2004.
- Rodriguez’s strikeout rate was his lowest since 2003 and his walk rate was the second highest of his career, behind only the 4.54 BB/9 he posted in 2007.
- Fuentes’ HR/fb rate in 2008 was a career low, following seasons of 9.4, 9.3, 9.8, 9.7 in 2004-2008.
- Jenks’ strikeout rate was a new career low.
- Hoffman’s gb% was a career high, although it has remained over 30 each of the last five years. His HR/FB was at a five-year high versus a low of 2.9% in 2007 when he allowed two homers to 2008′s 8.
In signing a type A free agent, the Mets would forfeit their first round draft pick to the player’s former team. So Wood, Rodriguez and Fuentes would all cost the Mets their first-rounder, while the team losing the player would also net a supplemental pick after the first round. Hoffman, the oldest of the group, would not cost the Mets a draft pick of their own. Bobby Jenks wouldn’t either, but he would cost the Mets some other young talent.
All pitchers carry risk and all multi-year pitcher contracts are risky propositions. However, based on recent performance, I see Kerry Wood as the ideal fit for the New York Mets. Hoffman, despite his age, is enticing as well.
Why Wood over K-Rod?
Wood throws more strikes and struck out more hitters. He’ll be cheaper. K-Rod is no longer the pitcher he once was. His strikeout rate dropped in 2008, while his walk rates have trended gently upward. Most concerning, is that batters have hit him consistently harder in each full year of his career.
Examine K-Rod’s career:
K-Rod Career
| Year | IP | BB/9 | K/9 | H9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 86.0 | 3.66 | 9.94 | 5.23 |
| 2004 | 84.0 | 3.54 | 13.18 | 5.46 |
| 2005 | 67.1 | 4.28 | 12.16 | 6.01 |
| 2006 | 73.0 | 3.45 | 12.08 | 6.41 |
| 2007 | 67.1 | 4.54 | 12.03 | 6.68 |
| 2008 | 68.1 | 4.48 | 10.14 | 7.11 |
And now graphically, just for fun:
Why Wood over Fuentes?
Wood has a better walk rate, and ground ball rate, while Fuentes has a higher strikeout rate. Both had very similar WHIP in 2008. Despite the fact that Fuentes is a few years older than Wood, because he was a starter as a younger pitcher, Wood has thrown about three times as many innings as Fuentes in their respective careers. However, Wood threw all those innings because he was one of the best pitching talents in baseball. He’ll never be the Kerry Wood of 2003 again, but some part of that pitcher is still around.
Why Wood over Hoffman?
These two pitchers share the lowest walk rates on the chart above while Wood still misses more bats. It’s impossible to dismiss the 10-year age gap between the two when discussing value over a multi-year contract. However, working strongly in Hoffman’s favor is that he’s a type B free agent who would only cost the Mets money. Potentially, he would also be interested in a shorter contract than the other big names on the market. For the right price, Hoffman is mighty tempting.
Why Not Jenks
One of the Closers above is not like the others: Bobby Jenks. First, he’s not a free agent. Second, his strikeout rate is strikeout rate was roughly half that of the other elite closers, but he has compensated with an outrageously high groundball rate. Jenks career MLB walk, strikeout and groundball rates follow.
Bobby Jenks Career
| Year | Age | BB/9 | SO/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 24 | 3.3 | 11.3 | 44.6 |
| 2006 | 25 | 3.6 | 10 | 58.8 |
| 2007 | 26 | 1.4 | 7.6 | 53.8 |
| 2008 | 27 | 1.9 | 5.6 | 57.6 |
Jenks has induced lots and lots of groundballs. After struggling with control issues earlier in his career, his walk rate has remained below two in 2007 and 2008. However, his strikeout rate has plummeted in the last four years. This is a huge red flag. Jenks is an attractive option only at a very cheap price.
Minors
There are no pitchers in the Mets minor league system who can be expected, in 2009, to match reasonable performances from Wood, Fuentes, Rodriguez or Hoffman.
Notes
I prompted to write this by a few notes from readers asking me about the Mets and the closer market. Also, Sunday, Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus, compared Kerry Wood to Francisco Rodriguez here. I expanded the analysis to include a fuller picture of the available closers.
The categories HR/FB% and GB% were culled from the Hardball Times. RA, K/9, BB/9 are all widely available.
Toby. This is excellent analysis. Well thought out, great, great, great stuff. You sold me on Wood. I was originally in favor of Fuentes over K-Rod, and I had never even considered Wood. I did not realize K-Rod’s walk rate…kenny Rodgers just pops into my head, and Armando Benitez, and the last 2 years of our bullpen…walks kill. Give me a guy who throws strikes. Excellent job, I hope Cerrone on Metsblog links to this b/c I think you will inform a lot of people.
How do you figure they will use the young arms in the bullpen? Should we pretty much only expect Parnell to be in there (assuming he is not traded away)?
What level do you see Owen, Shaw, Holt, Gee and Stoner starting next year? I think a lot of people don’t think we have much depth in the pitching department. But these guys seem pretty solid.
Great job!
Parnell and Kunz will be given an opportunity to win MLB bullpen jobs in spring training.
Owen – AA
Shaw – A+
Holt – A+
Gee – AA or maybe AAA
Stoner – AA or AAA
There have been a number of questions on this subject, so I’ll write a lengthier post about potential ’09 pitching assignments later this week.
Thanks Toby!
You do a great job with this site. Keep up the good work!
I have been on the Wood bandwagon since the beginning saying he would be a great fit for the Mets.
He has both the big game and big city experiance we need as well as the obvious talent to do the job.
I also think the Mets should back themselves up by offering Hoffman a 1 year contract as the setup guy who would also have closer experience. The chance to be on a playoff caliber team should help to perswade him to become a setup guy.
This would be a cost effective way to fill 2 top priority needs for the price of K-Rod.
I hope someone has Omar’s ear because tradeing F-Mart and/or Parnell would be HUGH mistakes. F-Mart could be a big bat and be a 4th or 5th outfielder mid-way through 2009 while Parnell could get some much needed experiance in the bullpen as our 7th inning guy.
I love the idea of Hoffman on a 1-year deal behind Wood. I don’t know if Hoffman likes it as much though!
Trading F-Mart for Jenks would be shear folly. Parnell can/should be available for the right price.
I was on the Jeremy Affeldt bandwagon until he was signed today… Why was his interest so low?
I thought that was a very nice signing by the Giants.
I don’t necessarily disagree that signing Wood could be a good option, but a couple of issues… you didn’t really make a case for Wood over Fuentes aside from saying that Wood used to be a great starter. I’d take Fuentes’ K rate and hit rate over Wood’s GB and walk rate, especially given that Fuentes was putting up those numbers in Coors (presumably Citi will be at least fair), and a higher fly ball % isn’t as much an issue when you’re talking about Carlos Beltran in center field.
And I can’t see why the ChiSox need to trade Jenks, or why we would pay the price in prospects for him, unless they’d be interested in a deal centered around Niese… but his K/9 doesn’t bother me as much as it might, since his stuff hasn’t really gone through a dramatic decline and he’s posted good whips the past two years.
Great analysis…I registered as a commenter immediately after reading. Based on his past HR/FB rate it would seem as if Fuentes is due to a regression as this past season was a large aberration from his performance in the past. Hoffman is also greatly helped by the fact that he pitched at Petco holding down his HR numbers. Does anyone know if any of the free agent closers have been offered arbitration? If not then the team that signs them would not lose a draft pick.
I’m pretty sure all of those guys will be offered arbitration, they’d be bargains on one year deals of any size.
Fuentes and Hoffman’s HR ratios are somewhat misleading considering how different are Coors and Petco to flyballs.
In the end, I think Wood is the best choice, especially if he takes something like 3/30, while Fuentes would be the runner up for 3/33 imo. I’ll pass on K-Rod.
Wow. I didn’t realize that Wood was already that old. It’s amazing how much of his youth was consumed by injury.
Is signing him worth risking Wagnerian fate?
Do you think his risk of injury is more than KRod? KRod’s arm is just getting weaker while his throwing motion is just as violent. Warning sign?
This is a good analysis, Toby but your case for Wood over Fuentes does not convince me that the Mets should take on the substantially escalated injury risk. While its hard to not be intrigued by Wood and his production, the injuries throw up about a thousand red flags. Sure, everyone has an injury risk, but Wood can’t seem to stay on the field, and that is why he should be avoided, lest we want to end up in the same (or rworse) situation as last year.
Fuentes makes all the sense in the world.
Way to go Toby. You should run Metsblog. Its a shame that place gets so many comments and hits when you have better information, opinions and knowledge about the game. When it comes to a place to go for exclusive Mets information and opinions, I come here. I don’t comment much but I check up everyday. You are the voice of reason in the Mets blogging community. So nice to see somebody who doesn’t use stats like Saves, Holds, ERA and Wins. Great job, keep it up. BTW, agree completely on Wood.
Cerrone and his staff do a great job with Metsblog. The problem now is that the comments section use to be a place for intellectual discussion. The success of Metsblog brought all the bandwagon and philly fans over to share their obnoxious opinions. Now, this blog is where fans are going to share logic-based, intellectual arguments.