Reader Nate W wrote:
With the Mets currently having no AAA starters besides Niese and Parnell who may find themselves on the Mets staff or traded, would you say its a given that the group who spent the last half of 2008 in Bingy will start 2009 there? That being Antonini, Owen, Gee, and Stoner. Or do you think the Mets will push some of them at AAA rather than fill out Buffalo’s rotation with has beens?
Toby answered:
Oh, no, it’s definitely not a given that all of those guys will start 2009 in Buffalo! I think at this point it’s helpful now to no longer treat that four-some as a group. Here are their 2008 performances at AA-Binghamton:
| Pitcher | IP | RA | H | BB | SO | BB/9 | K/9 | K/BB | H/9 |
| Antonini | 45.2 | 3.74 | 43 | 16 | 32 | 3.19 | 6.37 | 2.00 | 8.56 |
| Gee | 27.0 | 1.33 | 18 | 5 | 20 | 1.67 | 6.67 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Owen | 16.1 | 5.51 | 20 | 9 | 15 | 5.03 | 8.39 | 1.67 | 11.18 |
| Stoner | 79.0 | 4.44 | 80 | 29 | 59 | 3.30 | 6.72 | 2.03 | 9.11 |
-With the exception of Stoner, this is a very limited sample for each gentleman.
- I see a few dominating starts from Gee, who has the best fastball of the bunch. Actually, it’s the only average or better MLB fastball among the quartet.
- Michael Antonini survived without great peripherals. When I saw him, he had trouble throwing his slider to righties, so was reduced to two pitches, fastball/changeup, against ‘em. I’d say he needs to head back to AA to refine his breaking ball.
- Owen simply did nothing at AA, allowing a BB/9 rate above five and a H/9 rate above 11, to indicate he’s ready to move on to a higher level.
- Stoner spent the most time of the quartet at AA, posted unexceptional walk and strikeout rates while giving up over a hit an inning. At the conclusion of the 2008 regular season, I would have suggested that he was going to struggle in the Arizona Fall League and that he should return to Binghamton to begin 2009.
So lets go to the Winter Ball tape:
| Pitcher | IP | RA | H | BB | SO | BB/9 | K/9 | K/BB | H/9 |
| Antonini – PWL | 9.0 | 6.00 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4.00 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 10.00 |
| Gee – PWL | 11.0 | 0.00 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 0.00 | 9.00 | INF | 5.73 |
| Stoner – AFL | 18.0 | 2.50 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 3.00 | 7.00 | 2.33 | 7.00 |
- Gee has made two terrific starts.
- Antonini has made two unimpressive starts.
- Stoner was a very pleasant surprise in 18 innings in the AFL.
In Conclusion
Gee is making a strong case that he’ll ready for AAA in 2009 despite very little time at AA in 2008. His progress and development in the PWL will be one of the important stories to follow this winter.
Stoner’s on the cusp between AA and AAA.
Antonini and Owen open will 2009, if they are still Mets property, at AA Binghamton.
I’d also suggest that “Filling out Buffalo’s rotation with has beens” could also be seen as stacking a AAA pitching staff with MLB ready depth. The Mets goal is not to produce a winner in Buffalo, it’s to produce a winner in Queens.
Please email me at toby.m.hyde@gmail.com with Mets Minors Mailbag in the subject line to submit a question.
My presumption was that most or all would start 2009 in AA.
Thanks for the informative response.
I really don’t think any of them should be in Buffalo, at least not as of yet.
Gee has the most compelling case, except he still only pitched 27 Innings in AA ball, I would wait for a larger sample size before pushing him further. I want to see another 50 innings at least in AA before I consider moving him up.
None of the others really stood out or anything, yeah, Stoner and Antonini were okay, but hardly dominant that they should be pushed with less then 100 innings under their belt there.
I think the names to keep your eyes on for a Buffalo rotation is….
Jonathon Niese, Bobby Parnell, Brian Stokes, Jason Vargas (Of course, any of these four might be up on the big league club to start the year, so they might be removed here), Salvador Aguilar and Adam Bostick
Also, lets not forget that the Mets are bound to bring in at least a half-dozen AAAA players, hoping to catch some lightning in a bottle. Preferrably ones who throw hard like Stokes.
Stokes will be in the Mets pen, or will be claimed on waivers.
Vargas likely wont clear waivers either, not with the fall league he is putting up.
While both Parnell and Niese could be in AAA, I think Neise will be the Mets 5th starter, or Parnell will be traded to bring back a 5th starter. The chances that both are in AAA are slim, imo.
So after Bostick and Niese/Parnell and Sal Aguilar its looking like there is some room for competition. As guys like Figueroa, Claudio Vargas, etc dont really do it for me, they might as well let the crop of young starters be pushed now that the Mets are back in the IL. I’d like to see it, but I doubt it will happen as the Mets just don’t seem to work that way.
Why would Jason Vargas have to clear waivers? He was in AAA when he was hurt.
Yeah Jason Vargas should be there. He’s on the 40-man and he should be kept there to start in AAA with the AFL he’s having for sure.
If you wind up with say, Derek Lowe, Niese is probably your #5. If you wind up with Oliver Perez, I think you might want to find someone more established and reliable for #5, Javier Vasquez maybe.
As for Parnell, I think its just time to get him used to coming out of the bullpen. He still has impact potential in the late innings, but he just doesn’t have enough to be a starter. Let him focus on getting one more pitch really tight. He has the fastball to be a pretty solid two-pitch reliever, if he can just develop the second pitch. Make him the AAA closer to start the year unless you absolutely need another SP in Buffalo. Start Kunz back at AA .
Are Willie Collazo and Brandon Knight still around? They could be in the Buffalo rotation. If Niese and Vargas are there thats 4 SP. Then I guess you could promote Gee or find veteran fodder. Is Brad Penny supposed to be ready for ST? If not maybe offer him a split contract like the Red Sox did with Bartolo Colon, where after a certain number of days he’s not in the big league team, he can opt for free agency. Imagine the numbers to old Brad Penny would have put up if he never had to face the Mets!
Jason Vargas is on the 40 man roster and out of options. There is no way to get to AAA without clearing waivers. Vargas was optioned in ’05, ’06, and ’07 and spent all of 2008 on the DL in part because if they had activated him he would have had to be on the Mets or put through waivers.
Meddler: Collazo and Brandon Knight are minor league free agents able to sign with anyone. So are Figueroa, Lugo, Jose Sanchez, Armas Jr, and Claudio Vargas.
I would like to have the two you mentioned back as AAA relievers, or swingman types, but not starters.
I wonder if there are any native Bullalonians (Bermanism?) who could be on the Buffalo’s roster. Always nice to have a hometown guy on the squad…
Gee could be contingent on how he looks the rest of the winter and in spring training.
The difference between AA and AAA isn’t nearly the same as A+ and AA, so it’s not really a big talking point either way.
Either level is going to adjust to the fact that he throws lots and lots of strikes, so it might as well be at AAA where the adjustment will happen a bit faster and we can see how Gee handles himself.
Again, I continue to be a big Gee fan… I understand his velocity isn’t very much more than average for his kind of right hander, but I was always intrigued by the movement he gets.
I think Gee and Stoner will come down to spring training as I imagine both will be in big league camp. While Gee has more potential, Stoner has more experience and is having a nice little AFL so I call it a toss up between the two.
I expect Stokes to be in the BP and Parnell to be in the BP or traded. That leaves Vargas and/or Niese, Bostick and Aguilar. And of course the obligatory ML retread who will surely make a few emergency ML starts…