Toby’s Note at 4:39 PM Thursday:

I messed this up in my original post.  The Mets must add Carp to protect him.  Players are now eligible for  their fourth and fifth rule five drafts….

Thursday, November 20th is the deadline for MLB teams to file their reserve lists with the commissioner’s office identifying players on the roster for the MLB and all minor league rosters.  These are lists used for the Rule 5 Draft on December 11th in Vegas.  (Lets pause here and acknowledge the genius of placing nearly every baseball executive, all of the agents, the major media, and thousands of job seekers let loose in Vegas for five days.)

Any player who is not on an MLB team’s 40-man roster is eligible to be drafted in the MLB phase of the rule five draft with two important exceptions.

1. Players who signed at age 19 or older are until their FOURTH rule 5 draft.

2. Players who signed before their 19th birthday are excluded until their FIFTH rule 5 drafts.++

++Edited

MLB Phase

Teams pay a fee to draft a player who must then be kept on the drafting team’s active 25-man roster all season.  If not, the drafting team must offer the player back to his former team.  For losing the player, the drafting team gets half of the fee it paid to MLB back.  So when the Mets drafted Steven Register from the Rockies in December 2007 they paid MLB.  When they returned him to the Rockies, they received half of their fee back.

Minor League Phase

After the Major League Phase comes the minor league phase.  In this section, the fees drop dramatically, and there are no rules about where the drafting team must place the acquired player.  So the second phase includes all players not officially on a MLB or AAA roster and is called the AAA phase.

Players to Add

I counted only one player - 3B Shawn Bowman - who has an absolute no doubt about it case to be added to the 40-man roster.

Bowman, who will turn 24 two days before the draft had missed most of the previous three seasons heading into 2008 with chronic back pain.  A thirdbaseman with soft hands and a strong arm, Bowman came back to the diamond in 2008 and hit his way right out of the FSL with a .340/.369/.485 line in 97 AB.  He hit a more pedestrian .248/.263/.363 in 113 AB at AA at the end of the season.  Bowman’s season came to an end after a brief trip to the Arizona Fall League in which he hit .297/.333/.541 in 37 AB when he went home to take care of an ailing family member.

Two months ago, Junior Guerra looked like another good candidate for inclusion on the 40-man roster.  On September 24th, I wrote:

The 5’11” 213 lb Guerra pitched over four levels in the system, spending most of his July with Savannah where he was 1-1 with two saves in 25.2 dominating IP. He gave up just 14 hits and two walks while punching out 34. Guerra didn’t give up a hit in his four innings at St. Lucie to conclude his season. I missed Guerra when I saw Savannah, but an AL scout told me that he liked Guerra a little bit as a relief prospect. After all, Guerra had thrown 93-95 mph the night before to go along with an 83 mph slider. A strong Hawaii showing could set up Guerra for an Opening Day assignment to Binghamton and a rapid rise through the system in 2009.

The converted catcher did not have a strong Hawaii showing.

1-1, 9.18 ERA, 14 G, 16.2 IP, 29 H, 19 R, 17 ER, 13 BB, 10 SO, 3 WP, 0.81 GO/AO, .382 AVG.  He threw 58% of his pitches for strikes.

I have no idea what the Mets will do with Guerra, although it was only 16.2 rough innings in HWB.  I counted 33 men on the 40-man as of late Wednesday night.

Yes, Eligible:

Mike Carp signed his first contract on 6/8/04, three weeks shy of his 18th birthday.  This is his fifth Rule 5 draft, so absolutely has to be protected now the 40-man. ++

Eligible