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This will be the first in a series of pieces taking a look at some of the players that will be available in the MLB phase of the rule 5 draft.
Today, prompted by an email exchange with Ted Berg, we start with C James Skelton of the Detroit Tigers. Skelton, who turned 23 in October was a 14th round pick in the draft.
Bat: L Throw: R Ht: 5′11″ WT: 165 lbs.
James Skelton 2008
| Team | Level | G | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | 2B | HR | BB | SO | BB% | SO% | TPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeland | A+ | 63 | 212 | .307 | .468 | .406 | 8 | 3 | 64 | 50 | 22.70 | 17.73 | 282 |
| Erie | AA | 24 | 85 | .294 | .425 | .388 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 | 17.92 | 21.70 | 106 |
| West Oahu | HWB | 21 | 64 | .281 | .405 | .391 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 13.75 | 22.50 | 80 |
| 2008 | 108 | 361 | .303 | .456 | .401 | 15 | 5 | 94 | 91 | 20.09 | 19.44 | 468 |
Mets catchers in 2008 hit .249/.324/.328 with a .703 OPS. That’s slightly worse than the MLB average of .257/.325/.390/.715.
And Skelton can throw: he through out 35% percent of baserunners, which would have been 3rd in the FSL if he had enough games to qualify among the league leaders.
But Is He Big Enough?
Skelton is listed at 5′11″, 165lbs. Catchers and major league baseball players just aren’t built that way.
In August at Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein wrote about Skelton this way:
James Skelton, …baffles scouts because there’s just been no precedent for a player like him. ….few players elicit more wide-ranging opinions. He has very little power, and at 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds, he’s bone-thin and just doesn’t look right when he gears up and crouches behind the plate. A scout who has been following Skelton for years remains unsure what to make of him, and finds it nearly impossible (as do many who have seen him), to get past the slender body. “He has me scratching my head twenty times and flipping coins,” joked the scout. “He has a feel for hitting, there’s no question about it, and he has catch-and-throw, receiving, and on-base skills. When you see him, there has to be durability questions—I don’t even think he’s as big as listed.” Asked what could be done, the scout remained baffled, and admitted that he had some hopes of a position change in Skelton’s future. “Hell, if he was a second baseman, I’d love him,” he joked.
The argument goes not that Skelton’s too short to catch, it’s that he’s too light. I examined the height and weight of all the top 20 catchers by VORP in baseball in 2008. The average top 20 catcher in MLB outweighs Skelton by 50 pounds. These catchers averaged 6′ 1/2″ 216 lbs.
Ivan Rodriguez at 5′9″ 190 lbs was the shortest and lightest of the group. Skelton is listed 25 lbs shy of Rodriguez’s weight while standing two inches taller.
All of the catchers at Skelton’s height or greater weighed at least 195 lbs including Brian Schneider and Kurt Suzuki both of whom are listed at exactly 195. (When he was in A-ball, I heard more than one scout express concern that Suzuki was too slight to catch everyday.)
Does Skelton really belong at 2B? On weight along, he would find himself with some more lightweights, but he’s still lighter than every 2B in the VORP top 20.
Height and Weight By Position
| 2B | SS | C | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVG HT | 5'11" | 6'0" | 6'1/2" |
| AVG WT | 192.75 (lbs) | 193.75 (lbs) | 215.75 (lbs) |
| MAX WT | 210 | 215 | 245 |
| MIN WT | 170 | 175 | 190 |
| STD WT | 12.08 | 12.70 | 14.71 |
I love the idea that Skelton might be undervalued because he’s too skinny and does not look like a single above average MLB backstop today. Of course, maybe this winter, Skelton will discover the virtues of Buffalo Wings, bacon cheese-burgers and protein shakes and will put on enough weight to look like a catcher.
However, despite his obvious ability to make contact and draw walks, the bat doesn’t exactly scream MLB ready. In some ways Skelton’s offensive profile (contact and discipline) is similar to the Mets own Josh Thole, but to a more extreme degree. The scouting reports suggest that Skelton is a MLB caliber defender while Thole is still refining his technique behind the dish. Perhaps most importantly, could the Mets committ to carrying a rookie catcher on the major league roster all year?
You be the judge: Will I ever write the name James Skelton again on this blog after the rule 5 draft?
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That’s an intriguing player and great article. Lights out OBP, good BA….worth a shot definitely, but Mets arent the kind of team who would do this move.
great stuff as always, toby. been reading your site for a little while now. question: do you think there are any players in the mets system that shouldve been protected that have a good chance at being drafted by another team this year? in other words, are there any potential jesus flores’? thanks. and great job.
On November 20, Toby named Shawn Bowman and possibly Junior Guerra as players that might need to be protected.
I’d love to see the Mets try something like this, but Minaya doesn’t have the imagination. He’d rather have a guy like Robinson Cancel, who can never be a disappointment because he is guaranteed not to exceed replacement level.
Toby, Great Post!!!
I like Shelton, reminds me of Alex Trevino with a better stick. He is number 3 on my Rule V wish list. A few Tiger fans were not happy he is unprotected.
My two top guys are Pedro Strop and Eduardo Morlan.
Pedro Strop is 23 year old pitcher in the Texas organization. in 86 minor league innings he has struck out 117 batters and only allowed 68 hits. He started out as a SS in the Rockies organization, before switching to pitching a few years ago. He was ranked the 9th best prospect in the Rockies farm system at the start of the year. I read that Cleveland stole him from the Rockies on a waiver technicality when the Rockies tried to take him off of the 40 man roster to activate Helton, but it sounds more like a calculated risk that they lost . Scout.com described Strop as having a mid-90s fastball with late life, a plus slider, and a nasty splitter, giving him (as Baseball America described it) “three swing-and-miss pitches.” Most of his minor league innings have been at high A,so it is a long jump, BUT he had arm surgery (Stress fracture in his elbow in June) and therefore we may be able to hide him in rehab a good portion of 2009 (which counts as being on the major league roster, therefore meeting that requirement).
Eduardo Morlan, 23 year old RHP with the Rays. Just a year ago he was considered one of the best relief arms in the minors when he was included in the Delmon Young trade. He was bothered with shoulder problems this year but it is hard to argue with 10.7K/IP over his minor league career and a 1.15 WHIP.
Bobby Wilson is another catcher who I believe is available (Angels, 25 years old and hit .312 in AAA this year).
Carlos Guevara, 26 year old RHP, is also interesting. He was the #5 pick in last years Rule V draft, selected by the Marlins from the Reds organization, and then sold to the Padres. His minor league numbers are impressive, 404 K in 315 IP, and his out pitch is a nasty screwball. Unfortunately he struggled with the Padres this year and the rest of his stuff is considered “ordinary”.
I was surprised to see KC release Ryan Braun, he could be another Stokes type scrap heap find. KC also has a few interesting Rule V candidates but I don’t think they are great fits for the Mets. Matt Fox, a RHP may have as much upside as anyone eligible in the Rule V but he is only a year removed for arm surgery and hasn’t pitched above A ball.
I still have a few 40 man rosters to go but with a few spots in the pen open for competition, there are a lot of possibilities.
Yeah, I’m going to write about Morlan and Strop. I think it’s much more likely that the Mets try to find an arm as they did last year with Register.
Sorry, I just reread what I wrote and realized the Matt Fox comment should have been a new paragraph, he is in the Twins system, so therefore not part of the Royal comments.
Also appologize for the length of the comment, I got a little carried a way
Seems like a nice kid, but we won’t be taking this gamble. We already have 2 catchers under contract, there’s almost no chance we would take a 3rd who would need to be on the big league roster all season.
Much more likely we gamble on a potential bullpen arm like Eduardo Morlan.
I vote “No” you will not be writing about Skelton again on this blog. The Mets are not in a position to carry him on their roster, and as intriguing as the kid is, I do not pine for the Mets to be a 73 win team years away from contending that could afford to stash him. He does remind me that I miss Jesus Flores, however.
I look forward to hearing more about the pitchers.