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Toby Hyde

On Putz and Friends
By Toby Hyde - Dec 11, 2008 5:25 am

For the second day in a row, the Mets greatly improved their bullpen and thus their team, adding a premium arm for a very reasonable price. Omar Minaya told reporters that heading into the offseason, the Mets gathered their professional scouts to evaluate the “Closer” market.  The team determined that Putz and Rodriguez were the two best.  Now they are both Mets.  Well played gentlemen.

The Mets acquired RHP JJ Putz, OF Jeremy Reed and RHP Sean Green from the Mariners for RHP Aaron Heilman, OF Endy Chavez, LHP Jason Vargas, 1B Mike Carp, OF Ezequiel Carrera and RHP Maikel Cleto while sending Joe Smith to Cleveland.  The Indians sent OF Franklin Gutierrez to Seattle for INF Luis Valbuena.

I’d like to propose thinking about the trade this way: the Mets picked up a stud for the backend of the bullpen for Aaron Heilman and a bunch of iffy minor leaguers while swapping a 4th OF and righthanded set up man with Seattle.

MLB Portion

JJ Putz in the last three years has struck out 11.95, 10.30, 10.88 batters per nine, in 2006-08 respectively.   In ‘06 and ‘07 he had BB/9 rates below two, but that ballooned to 5.44 while he dealt with injuries.  However, when he’s totally healthy, as he was in the final months of ‘08, or the preceding two seasons, he’s an elite level bullpen ace. At ESPN.com, Keith Law argues, with some justification, that Putz is better than Francisco Rodriguez.

Jeremy Reed is a former top prospect who after his age-27 season is a .257/.314/.365 hitter in 1061 MLB AB.  Reed, who’s a strong defender is like a younger version of Endy Chavez, himself a career .270/.311/.369 hitter in over 2,000 AB.  The White Sox drafted Reed in the second round in 2002 out of Long Beach State, before sending him to the Mariners in 2004 in the Freddy Garcia deal.  Reed was eligible for arbitration this winter.

RHP Sean Green, who will turn 30 in April, is actually very similar to RHP Joe Smith who will be 25 by Opening Day. Compare the two pitchers’ 2008 seasons, particularly the last three columns with SO, BB and GB rates.

  W-L-S ERA G IP BB SO AVG OBP SLG K/BB BB/9 SO/9 GO/AO
Green 4-5-1 4.67 72 79 36 62 .261 .344 .346 1.72 4.10 7.06 2.98
Smith 6-3-0 3.55 82 63.1 31 52 .220 .322 .336 1.68 4.41 7.39 2.86

Moreover, both pitchers have significant platoon splits.  Here is their 2008 performance by batter handedness.

  Vs. Left       Vs. Right      
  AVG OBP SLG OPS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Green .299 .401 .425 .826 .233 .298 .285 .583
Smith .320 .443 .460 .903 .192 .286 .302 .588

Aaron Heilman and his 5.21 ERA and 10 HR allowed needed out of New York.  The Mets needed him gone.  Actually, I’d be willing to bet that nearly any one of the millions of Mets fans would have personally offered to drive Heilman to whichever city hosted the luck MLB team that volunteered to take him from the Mets.

The Minor Leaguers

LHP Jason Vargas missed all of the 2008 campaign thanks to surgery on the labrum in his right hip.  He returned to go 1-0 wit ha 2.10 ERA in the Arizona Fall League with 13 SO and 5 BB  and a 0.94 GO/AO ratio in 25.2 IP.  Notice, that even while he was dominating, he struck out fewer than five batters per nine innings and gave up lots of fly balls.  In his last big league look, Vargas who owns a 5.81 ERA in 127 IP, gave up 17 hits and 14 runs in 10.1 innings in 2007 for the Mets.  He is out of options.

1B Mike Carp is coming off an age 22 season at AA Binghamton in which he hit .299/.403/.471 with 29 2B, 17 HR, 79 BB and 88 SO in 134 G.   He had an oddly streaky season: after a scorching April, he didn’t hit a single homer in May, reached base at a .409 clip in June, floundered in July (.260/.390/.340) and then blasted his way through August .289/.435/.567.  Carp hits righties (.314/.425/.486) better than lefties (.268/.354/.438).  Scouts express concern that Carp, who is not terribly athletic, will hit for the kind of average/power combination expected of top-flite 1B.  His power and his hit tools might be slightly above average, but that’s not enough at 1B.  He’ll be a big leaguer, but hardly an impact player.  Pre-trade, I had Carp ranked as the 13th best Mets prospect for his proximity to the big leagues, and hitting ability.

OF Ezequiel Carrera is a speedster.  At age 21, he hit .263/.344/.393 in the FSL with St. Lucie while swiping 28 of 37 bases.  Anything he hit up the gap or down the line was as likely to turn into a triple (13 in 2008) as a double (12).  He uses his plus speed to good effect in centerfield, showing fine range into the gaps.  Even when his initial read off the bat is not perfect, he has the speed to outrun any initial hesitation.  Carrera skpped Savannah after an ‘07 in which he played 45 games in the GCL and 20 in Brooklyn.  At the time of the trade, Carrera was 2-for-11 in the VWL.  In my last ranking of Mets prospects before the trade, I had Carrera as the third-best OF prospect behind Fernando Martinez and Javier Rodriguez, at #19 overall.

Maikel Cleto is a 19 year old fireballing righty who I had ranked as the 9th best pitcher and 18th best Mets prospect overall after he put up a 5-11, record with a 4.25 ERA in 135.2 IP in Savannah in 2008 with 140 H, 78 R, 64 ER, 34 BB, 81 SO, 25 WP and a 1.55 GO/AO.  Yeah, those control numbers, (25 WP!) are bad, but Cleto does one thing exceptionally well: he throws hard.  When I saw him in July, he was sitting at 93-94, and mixing in 95s and 96s.  However, his command of the pitch was poor.  His changeup – in the upper 80s, was rather firm.  He trusted his curve so little, that he rarely threw it.  It’s hard to project Cleto to be more than a reliever without any trustworth secondary offerings yet, but he might grow into a good one.

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1 Comment »

Comment by loveodgame08
2008-12-11 12:20:35

Thanks for the breakdown…makes me more reassured that we didn’t give up anything I’ll miss. Except Mike Carp’s mustache.

 
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