Q: Clooch from VT asks:
Ruben Tejada had a tough year while being pushed very aggressively. Is this the type of experience that can break a young player? Are there positives to take out of his performance this year? The kid reportedly plays good defense, seems to have a good batting eye and had very good numbers as a 17 year old in 2007. Does he have the tools to be a starting shortstop on a team that doesn’t have Reyes in front of him?

A: Tony Bernazard, the Mets VP for player development, definitely has altered the mindset of the organization. Before he arrived and Omar Minaya returned, the Mets were very conservative promoting prospects. Now, other than at Brooklyn, we often see players – particularly the internationally signed teenagers – playing a level or two over their heads. The Mets’ theory is that players ought to experience adversity before they reach the big leagues, and the mentally strong ones will benefit from it. The mentally weak ones eventually won’t succeed anyway. (That’s the logic, at least.)

Geez.  A successful baseball player makes an out 65% of the time.  A prospect in the minor leagues makes multiple (usually minor) mistakes a week.  Successful big leaugers talk all the time about learning to deal with failure – the failure involved with hitting .300, not struggling to hit .220 as Pena did in 2007.

Speaking as someone with coaching experience, I believe the most important mental attribute for athletes learning a new skill is confidence.

Adam Rubin answered questions in his Baseball America chat Friday afternoon. A few responses really caught my eye.

Q: Steven M from NY asks:
Brad Holt looks like a great pick! He sounds alot like Mike P, Is that true?

A: Steven, The Mike Pelfrey comparison is right on. Both Mets special assistant Sandy Johnson and VP for player development Tony Bernazard said Holt is ahead of where Pelfrey was at the same point. Bernazard strongly hinted to me that Holt would start 2009 at Double-A Binghamton.

Emphasis added.  I can’t tell you how misguided I think this is.  Again, I think Holt is the Mets top pitching prospect.  However, Holt had one plus pitch in the New York Penn League.  He featured a below average breaking ball and changeup, both of which he struggled to throw consistently for strikes.  Holt, for all of his virtues, walked 4.12 batters per nine innings in 2008 in the NYP.  Why would the organization skip him THREE LEVELS to begin the season?  I would argue that struggling in AA would not, in any way help Holt’s development.  I will go on record here: this is a BAD IDEA.

Rubin continues:

While the Mets probably will have a veteran Triple-A rotation with players such as Nelson Figueroa, I can certainly see a scenario where Holt gets starts for the Mets next season, like Jon Niese did three times last year. Holt has the best fastball in the Mets’ minor-league system.

Again, throwing a fastball is just usually not enough to be a successful MLB starter.  Mets fans need only to recall Mike Pelfrey’s early struggles to confirm this point.

At Baseball America, Adam Rubin has posted his list of Top 10 Mets Prospects.

1. Fernando Martinez
2. Wilmer Flores
3. Jonathan Niese
4. Brad Holt
5. Bobby Parnell
6. Jefry Marte
7. Jenrry Mejia
8. Reese Havens
9. Nick Evans
10. Eddie Kunz

It’s a list that makes sense. Also, Rubin, who’s around the big league team everyday, displays a preference for guys who have been around the big league team. Four of his top 10 prospects saw MLB action in ’08 and Martinez was in big league spring training.

Chat at 2 PM.

Chris from LI emailed Matt Cerrone at Metsblog:

just had a couple of questions about our top prospects. what are their plans for flores and marte, since their positions are pretty much locked up at the major league level?  will they eventually be moved, maybe flores to 2B? and also, any chance of seeing Holt in the bigs this year, maybe for a spot start or two or even compete with niese for the fifth spot? do they view this as an option? I’m pretty excited about this kid.

1.  The Mets plan for Flores and Marte is to leave them at SS and 3B respectively for the 2009 season.  The fact that the Mets are well set with elite players in Reyes and Wright at the MLB level at the positions that Flores and Marte are playing now is largely irrelevant.  Flores and Marte are both many years away from the big leagues.  Flores would be unusually tall for an MLB shortstop.  He could end up as a tall MLB SS.  Likelier, he will be given a shot at 3B or in the OF at some time in the future when he is closer to the majors, and the Mets roster needs at the time of his anticipated arrival are more obvious.  Marte has work to do to remain at the hotcorner, but has a chance.  I doubt either will move to 2B, which requires the footspeed that both players might lose as they fill out.  Trying to anticipate what the big league roster will need in four years is a fruitless exercise.

2.  The chances of seeing Brad Holt in the Big Leagues in 2009 are very, very low, bordering on nil, despite the fact I think he’s the Mets best pitching prospect.  He has no chance to compete with Niese for the fifth spot.  At the end of 2008, Holt had one plus big league pitch.  He needs minor league reps to facilitate the development of his secondary offerings.

Please email me at toby.m.hyde (at) gmail.com with other burning minor league questions for upcoming mailbags.

TH: Josh Thole hit a little and reached base a lot in the FSL and AFL.  My guess is that you’ll say that questions about his defensive ability prevented him from cracking the top 11.  True?

KG: and the fact that he just doesn’t have much juice in his swing.

KG: It’s hard to rank catchers with defensive issues.  They have to be good enough offensively to start, because it’s hard to find backups who aren’t defensively oriented.

TH: Important point.

KG: Yeah, every once in a while I make sense.

TH: I know you’ve only gone through 1/3 of the big league teams, but if you had to take a guess, where would the Mets system rank if you were ranking 1-30?

KG: My gut says somewhere in the middle, maybe a bit below because of depth issues.

TH: That sounds about right, from my myopic view of the baseball world.  Thanks a million for your time

KG: Anytime, and good to see you in Vegas.

TH: Yeah, you too.  Ok, I lied.  I have one more set of questions.  You got 5 more min?

KG: Yup

KG: For you the world, though you are delaying my video game time, as Aquanaut’s Holiday arrived today from Hong Kong.

TH: Oh, well then for your own good, I’ll keep you!

KG: My thumbs thank you.

TH: Dillon Gee.  Ceiling?  Mid range outcome?

KG: Ceiling? solid 4-5 at best, midrange; middle relief.

TH: Awesome.  Thanks again.

KG: You got it.

TH: You mentioned that there were 8-10 candidates to take the last three spots: that list clearly includes Parnell, Kunz and Moviel who rounded out the [top 11] list, and Gee, Pena and Puello (pictured) who were in the Just Missed section.  To get to ten players, I add in Brant Rustich, Javier Rodriguez, Ruben Tejada, Josh Thole and Robert Carson.  Ok, I cheated and added five guys.  Where those guys part of your larger “just missed” group?

KG: You nailed them except for one.  I liked Rodriguez and Niewenhuis as amatuers.

KG: I also had some pretty big reports on the other young Rodriguez, Aderlin, but it’s too early to think top 11 for him

KG: though I did have Flores on last year’s list, and that made me look good — but in talking to the Mets last year, he really sounded special.

TH: Ah, now two follow-ups… Does “except for one” just mean you considered Niewenhuis in the list, and I left him out?

TH: And what did you hear about Aderlin Rodriguez

KG: no, it means I considered Aderlin.

KG: They are very high on his skillset, both offensive and defensively.  Not on a Flores level, but maybe on a Marte one.

KG: As far as how high they were on him before he played a game.

KG: For guys like that, it’s nice to get thoughts from people outside the org about him, and my international guys from other teams were also high on him.

TH: Ok, among prospects, on or off your list, who will be the most important contributors to the Mets big league team in 2009?

KG: Niese is in the rotation. I think the 09 mets are pretty set, other then the last few bullpen slots, so there’s a chance that none of the [other] players will start the year in the big leagues.

KG: Actually a very good chance of that

KG: Parnell will get a shot this spring for sure, but that might be it.  Martinez would need an injury for anything more than a September look, unless he really blows up and left field turns into a nightmare

TH: … Parnell and Kunz are part of the nasty battle for the few bullpen spots

KG: I don’t think Kunz is in that battle.  One Mets official called that an “extreme longshot”

KG: Parnell definitely is, and Manuel is a big fan, so that could help his cause.

TH: Interesting.  I think the odds of a Fernando sighting at Citi/Taxpayer Field is very high unless he absolutely tanks in AAA.  The obvious joke/question is whether he’ll be sighted in uniform or in street clothes on his way to the MRI

KG: Ouch.

TH: I’m tempted to say uniform!

KG: I think he’s definitely going to get a Sept. look, but I wouldn’t guarantee more at this point.