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Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 165 lbs
Acquired: 2nd Rd (2008)
Born: 4/4/90 (Dorado, PR)
Why Ranked Here: Athleticism, athleticism and athleticism. The lanky Rodriguez lopes across centerfield with plus range already. It’s like he’s built with springs in his cleats. As Mets fans who watch and appreciate Carlos Beltran’s play should know, playing center is not just about being a burner and Rodriguez already gets good reads of the bat. Rodriguez’s long swing prevented him from making good consistent contact, although once underway, he showed fine batspeed. He has room to fill out on his wiry frame, which will bring more power into his game.
2008: Hitting .193/.258/.237 is fine in a 38 game professional debut in the GCL, but would be acceptable for a prospect in almost no other league.
Dr. Pangloss Says: Rodriguez has the defensive chops to be an above average MLB CF defender. How his bat progresses (and it has time as he’ll start 2009 at age 19) will determine his ceiling.
On the Flipside: Hitting under .200 is not so hot.
Projected 2009 Start: Savannah with a good Spring Training. XST is a possibility as well.
| G | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GCL | 38 | 135 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 2 | .193 | .258 | .237 |
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Javier Rodriguez is an interesting prospect. I wasn’t so keen on this pick as I thought that C Adrian Nieto and RHP Tim Melville were better prospects (actually, Melville is but the Mets never go above slot).
You always have to be cautious about the idea of power coming with a propect “filling out” because many times power does not come with such maturity or at least enough power to make a prospect standout as more than a AAAA player.
Right now Rodriguez makes Endy Chavez look like Mark McGuire. Hopefully, he adds power and improves on his plate discipline to make him an above-average prospect in the future, but he’s really raw – though he is only 19 so he has time.
Personally, I think he was too raw to merit a 2nd round pick as you didn’t hear his name talked about as a possibility in the first 3 rounds and now other team seemed to be in on him as far as I could tell from the reports as the draft was progressing.
I may have still taken Nieto over him as this organization lacks catchers with pop.
This is why, despite the fact that the Mets farm system has made improvements this past year, it still is in the bottom half (I’d argue bottom third) of all farm systems.
When someone as raw – lacking results or true projectibility – is your #15 prospect it showcases the overall lack of depth throughout the system. In many of the other above-average farm systems, someone like Reese Havens or Ike Davis would in the #15 spot.
Assuming, for the time being, that Havens makes the top ten in Toby’s ranking (a reasonable assumption), it should be pointed out that the Sickels and BA rankings did not have Davis (or for that matter, Raodrigeuz) as a top ten, with only BP having Davis in the top ten. Sickels did not even have Rodriguez in his top 20. So, while not arguing where each belongs on the list, if you take the approximated average ranking of Davis that Toby did earlier this year, Davis was collectively ranked number 10. Who is to say Davis makes the top ten in Toby’s rankings (yet to be seen of course). That being said, when you are talking about 4-5 spots (assuming he is ranked 10 or 11) compared to an “above-average system”, while that does make a difference, I don’t think it is THAT substantial so as to fully support your point. Especially since possibly, minus the Putz deal, and certainly minus the Santana deal, Davis (and obvioulsy Rodriguez) would be lower on the list in any case
Just to follow up my comments from yesterday, now that Toby has Davis at number 14 (not that surprising), I’m not sure how you could say Rodriguez at 15 is indicative of a bottom third system.
I think it depends how you rank prospects, if you’re the type of person that favors upside at the expense of near-readiness then a player like Javier Rodriguez could make the Top 15-20 of many systems (Which judging by these rankings so far, it seems like Toby does). If you place high importance in being able to contribute to the major league team in the near future above all else, then he wouldn’t.
Agreed — I think that was part of the point I was trying to make above — ranking prospects is not a science in many ways, as it is subject to the value system of the ranker. That being said, I am thoroughly enjoying this series from Toby and think he is doing a great job, as always!
Ranking prospects is a constant balancing act. I weigh a player’s upside against the chance that the player is going to reach that ceiling, the chance that he reaches some mid-rang outcome, and the chance that he will miss entirely.
Which makes sense, and is more or less how I like to look at prospects rankings. That being said, as an inherent part of the process, some degree of guesswork must go into the ranking, with the guesswork increasing as the prospect is farther and farther away from the major leagues, such as is the case with Rodriguez.