Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 230 lbs
Acquired: NDFA 7/8/06
Born: 10/12/89 (Santo Domingo, DR)
Why Ranked Here: Youth, position and power.
Youth: Pena turned 19 in October 2008. At the age when many players drafted out of high school would be beginning their first full professional season, Pena will be beginning his third. More germane than the experience he’s garnered, is the room (and time) that he has to improve.
Position: Catchers, as a whole, were the least productive MLB position at the plate in 2008, combining to hit .257/.325/.390 with a .715 OPS, three points lower than SS. Just four catchers in baseball hit 20 homers in 2008 (Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Kelly Shoppach and Mike Napoli). Only 15 hit double digit homeruns. Pena, who led the SAL with 28 passed balls has work to do to become MLB caliber defensively, but the same can be said of almost all minor league catchers. On the plus side, he has soft hands and a strong arm. His footwork and anticipation must continue to progress.
Power: Pena has the plus power that only a few MLB backstops possess. When he grows up, he is capable of 20 HR annually on the high end. He has batspeed, strength and the ability to drive the ball comfortably. Of the catchers who hit 20 HR in the majors in 2008, only Soto signed at an age similar to Pena, who has shown more power than Soto did at the same age against tougher competition.* Soto, in his first three seasons hit the same number of HR (6) as Pena did in 2008. Soto never hit more than nine HR in a season until exploding for 26 at AAA Iowa in 2007 as a 24 year-old.
2008: The Mets had Pena begin his professional career as a 17-year old in the SAL in 2007. In 2008, as an 18-year old, which is still very young for the league, Pena added 14 extra base hits and 14 singles to his 2007 performance. Teammates and coaches alike agreed that Pena made major strides defensively in both the mechanics of catching and the nuances of game calling.
Dr. Pangloss Says: Pena has the chance to develop into an above average MLB caliber backstop who will play in a few All-Star games.
On the Flipside: Pena has a large beta around his eventual outcome since there is so much in his game he needs to work on to reach his full potential. At the plate, must become more selective. That will help him both hit for a higher average and more power. Pena must get serious about his conditioning. He was carrying a lot of baby fat in 2008. While catchers often carry some weight to absorb the pounding of an MLB season, Pena’s heft affected his agility behind the dish, his swing and his stamina.
Projected 2009 Start: St. Lucie
| G | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAL 07 | 103 | 367 | 77 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 76 | 1 | 1 | .210 | .263 | .283 |
| SAL 08 | 105 | 397 | 105 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 95 | 0 | 0 | .264 | .308 | .380 |
*Sentence eroneously stated that Soto was an international signee like Pena, when in fact, the Cubs selected Soto in the 11th round in 2001.
I think it is clear, and most would agree, that Pena has tremendous upside and potential. His genes are impressive. His performance at a young age, exciting. However, as Toby said, a lot of areas to improve upon — defense (perhaps most important), conditioning (not far behind), strike zone and pitch selectivity, etc. If he blossoms into a Geovany Soto, I would be very pleased, as I would think most Mets fans would be.
Seems a little high for Pena at this point given all the ares he needs to significantly improve, but what do I know?
Your top 6 seems straightforward (assuming Murphy and Evans are ineligible – Martinez, Flores, Holt, Niese, Mejia and Havens), just not sure of your order. But that means you’ve left Dylan Owen off your top 41 all together, which surprises me (unless I missed him on your list). I had him in the high-20′s, and view him as almost interchangeable with Stoner, Gee, Shaw and Allen. Wonder what you have seen, or not seen, in him that you feel he is not a top 40 prospect.? (You have far more knowledge, experience and access to actual performance than I – who am typically stuck reading about these players and checking stats, aside from an occasional game I can catch).
Most of those guys are within a tick or two of an average MLB fastball. Owen has to overthrow to ever consider hitting 90.
Toby touched on that in the comments to the post on Shar — http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2009/01/14/36-rhp-scott-shaw/
I was surprised by Owen being totally off the list, too. I guess he seems to be a guy that has low potential based on his tools and just happened to meet that potential early.
I think Pena’s high ranking has everything to do with being a catcher. Toby’s point is that catchers, by default, suck. Any catcher who shows plus power and the slightest bit of pitch recognition will be a highly regarded prospect.
If Pena were at any other position, he would be ranked much lower. I don’t mean to undersell the guy, in fact I have high hopes for him. I just think this is why so many of us are confused by the #7 ranking.
sounds about right
Toby, I can’t believe you didn’t use either “has a large beta around his eventual outcome” or “must become more selective at the plate” to segue into Pena’s weight issue. Those were softballs, man!
Anyway, at minimum, despite what they think of Pena and where he should be slotted, I think most people visiting the site will give you credit for doing your own analysis and not just regurgitating others’ rankings. Here’s hoping Pena hits the gym, continues progressing with the glove and the bat, and in a few years makes you look like a genius.
“Must become more selective at the plate.” Ha ha!
Maybe they were subconscious puns, making my subconscious smarter than my conscious mind.
First off, I’ll preface this by stating the obvious. Toby has seen Pena play and I don’t believe any of us has, so I can appreciate Toby’s personal POV on Pena. Unfortunately, Pena will probably be at St. Lucie this year, so I will probably not get to see him if I make it down to Savannah.
Still, while I personally lean toward favoring long-term potential over current stats like Toby (at least until you get to AA), I’m still confused by Pena’s #7 ranking. Sure if all things work out he has a chance to be an above-average player at a prime position, but that’s a lot of ifs for someone who has not shown anything special.
Look, Pena has been rushed more than any of player not names Flores or Martinez. While Martinez and Flores has been able to hold their own, I think in the case of Pena it’s hurt him because catcher is a more difficult position to master, so he would have been better served by being brought slower and letting him master the tools of the trade in the GCL.
That said, if we’re going to throw stats aside and use long-term potential then why not rank Rustich above Moviel or Niese, because if all goes well Rustich is a #2 (okay, probably not). There are just too many ifs with Pena and even judging him on sheer talent alone doesn’t jusitify the #7 slot in my opinion.
1) The kid has not shown a commitment to getting in better shape, which to me is always a sign of work ethic. He hasn’t master how to be a top flight catcher yet? Okay. He’s young and catching is hard. He hasn’t developed power and better strike zone judgment? Okay. That may improve with more at bats. However, not getting in better shape and walking around like someone that should be blocking/protecting Eli Manning’s blind spot is unforgiveable. I know he’s 19, but this is his second full season and he’s still fat. Until this kid comes into camp in better shape and keeps the weight off, none of his potential matter.
2) His stats show an increase in extra base power, but nothing special.
3) His receiving and throwing are reported as fine, but his overall defensive skills have not developed as quickly as the Mets thoughts (or at least that’s what I’ve read).
Look, he’s only 19 and that is the one thing to hang your hat on. This kid has time to develop and a year from now or two years from now he may justify being this high in the rankings, but TODAY I think it’s a stretch, but that’s just me.
I hope he develops into a 20 homer catcher. That would be great, but there are too many ifs for my taste at #7, but man did this make for a great debate.
By the way — I think he was rushed more than Flores — he started his career in the SAL, didn’t he? Flores started in Kingsport I believe. That being said, if he does not show strides this year in terms of his defense and conditioning, I think many Mets fans will truly start to question how he was handled and his long term viability as a prospect.
Just to clarify, Sotto was not an international signee as Puerto Rico has been, wrongly, subject to the amateur draft for quite a while now. He was drafted in the 11th round in 2001. Not that it matters in this discussion, just thought Id clarify that mistake.