Bats/Throws: L/L
Height/Weight: 6’4”, 215 lbs
Acquired: 7th Rd 2005
Born: 10/27/86 (Lima, OH)
Why Ranked Here: An organizational favorite, Niese combines near-MLB readiness with the potential to be a rotation regular for a winning team. Niese’s best offering is a plus, big looping curveball. His fastball has average velocity from a lefty, in the 89-91 range, although it can straighten out at times. In the first inning, Niese will crank up the velocity a little more, but it dropped as he worked deeper into starts in 2008. Niese’s changeup is a distant third in his arsenal. Niese made three big league starts in 2008, in his first and final starts, he yielded five and six runs respectively in three innings each. In between, he shut out the Braves for eight innings on September 13th. In his one good start, Gameday counted Niese as throwing a mere four changeups among his 116 pitches. Three were balls and one resulted in a base hit. With the help of former AA pitching coach Ricky Bones, Niese claimed he added a cutter to his arsenal to attack righties. Niese deserves credit for getting serious about his conditioning recently, which allowed him to make 32 starts across three levels in 2008.
2008: Niese conquered AA on his way to AAA and then the big leagues when the Mets were searching for a few good starts in September. In his final ten starts at AA, Niese put together a 2.64 ERA over 64.2 innings with 60 strikeouts against just 21 walks. Promoted to AAA on July 30th, Niese allowed two runs or fewer in five of his seven starts. Niese’s three big league starts included two three-inning outings and a brilliant eight-inning blanking of the Braves.
Dr. Pangloss Says: Niese could fit into the middle of a rotation as a durable #3.
On the Flipside: At present, Niese’s ceiling is limited by his pedestrian fastball and command. Niese walked eight batters in 14 innings in the big leagues. Perhaps this was just a case of a young pitcher showing his nerves in a pennant race. In any event, Niese must continue to refine the command that he showed in the minors at the at the MLB level.
Projected 2009 Start: The Mets have brought lots of competition to Spring Training for the fifth starter’s job and it appears as though Jon Niese is headed to Buffalo for a little more seasoning to begin 2009. Given the up-and-down nature of his brief big league time in 2008, this is reasonable enough.
| ERA | G/GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | K/BB | BB/9 | SO/9 | GO/FB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA - EL | 3.04 | 22/22 | 124.1 | 118 | 53 | 42 | 5 | 44 | 112 | 2.55 | 3.19 | 8.12 | 1.50 |
| AAA - PCL | 3.40 | 7/7 | 39.2 | 34 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 14 | 32 | 2.29 | 3.21 | 7.35 | 1.66 |
| MLB - NL | 7.07 | 3/3 | 14 | 20 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 1.38 | 5.14 | 7.07 | 1.38 |
Personally, not a Niese fan at all. Fastball always looked way too straight when I saw him in the minors, and that didn’t change in the majors. We also didn’t really see the cutter, if the pitch really exists and works for him. Unless he has a good one that he starts throwing as his primary pitch, I don’t think he can survive without the fastball movement even if he adds a tick of stamina and velocity.
I wouldn’t read into that start against the Braves, he was basically facing a minor league lineup, and if you look at the box score all the “real” major league hitters in it happened to fare very well against him.
WC and I have been among Niese’s doubters for about a year and a half now. I don’t see anything he’s done that will change that. Nothing personal against the kid or anything, but I think he tops out as a LOOGY. If he incorporates a fastball with some movement, maybe he can be Jamie Moyer.
Righty or lefty, you just can’t be overly effective with a fastball that straight.
if niese turns into darren oliver i’d be happy/surprised