Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6’4”, 195 lbs
Acquired: Supplemental 1st rd ’08, 33rd overall (UNC Wilmington)
Born: 10/13/86 (Albemarle, NC)
Why Ranked Here: Holt has both the highest ceiling and the best downside projection among Mets pitching prospects. He has the best fastball in the system with a great pitcher’s build and clean, easy mechanics. In college, he moved from the third-base side of the rubber to the first base side, which allowed him to land more online to homeplate, and snap his hips through more effectively in his motion where before he had landed closed, which prevented him from accelerating his hips as quickly. The result of the change by 2008 was a legitimate mid-90s fastball that he threw 93-95 mph that exploded on hitters out of Holt’s hand. Moreover, the plus, or perhaps plus-plus heater played up thanks to fine command. A detractor might complain about Holt that he has only one plus pitch. That detractor’s criticism would be entirely justified. On the other hand, Holt has made terrific progress with his breaking ball, tightening up a slurvy offering from college into a tight, hard curveball, that at times, flashes plus potential. A scout who had seen him as an amateur, and then repeatedly in the New York Penn League, was left shaking his head, noting that every time he saw Holt as a professional, he made strides with his breaking ball. Holt rarely threw his below average changeup in the NYP League. He did not need it against less advanced hitters, although he has expressed a desire to improve the pitch.
Holt’s progress with his breaking stuff will dictate whether he becomes a frontline starter. Even if he struggles with his changeup, his fastball will take him to some kind of big league bullpen role, where he could excel.
2008: Holt had a monster debut in Brooklyn, easily outshining the two gentlemen, Ike Davis and Reese Havens, the Mets picked ahead of him in the 2008 draft. Holt led the circuit in ERA and strikeouts while landing second in WHIP (1.05) behind teammate Chris Schwinden. Holt reached double figures in strikeouts four times, including a 14 punch-out performance on July 24th, that tied a Cyclones single-game record. Holt worked deep into games, throwing five innings or more in five of his last six contests.
Dr. Pangloss Says: Holt could grow up into a very good #2 starter.
On the Flipside: Holt’s secondary offerings lag behind his superb heater. If those don’t improve, he will find himself as a flamethrower, and a good one, out of an MLB bullpen. Holt had arm trouble in high school and college that prevented some scouts from seeing him at his best at a young age. Despite his past injury history, he was healthy and durable in 2008.
Projected 2009 Start: St. Lucie rotation
| ERA | G/GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | K/BB | BB/9 | SO/9 | GO/FB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSA - NYP | 1.87 | 14/14 | 72.1 | 43 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 33 | 96 | 2.91 | 4.12 | 11.98 | 0.98 |
I like this guy. I’m hoping that he can move up quickly. He has the size and build, and clean mechanics. Plus he is already 22, so he isn’t being rushed.
Other than the FB, the clean mechanics and control are what should help him move quick. that, and how he seems to pick up and master additional pitches quickly.
If he worked hard on the secondary offerings over the winter, and masters them early in the year (at whatever level he ends up at) there really won’t be much reason to keep him (waste him?) in the minors for too long.
There are plenty of SPs in the majors already that don’t have a plus, or especially a plus,plus pitch, so he is already ahead of the pack in some ways!
having a nice pitchrs build and easy, clean mechanics (plus already having shown the ability to stay strong late in games) really does lend itself to being a SP. I would only see him in the pen if somehow none of his 2nd level pitches ever become consistant, ML quality. But I don’t think that will happen.
Anyway, an appearance this year at Citi field is possible (either a call up or some pen work) if not liekly, but winning a job in the rotation for 2010 seems doable.
The writeup really touches on what excites me most about Holt – not necessarily his ceiling, but his floor. Even if he doesn’t have a meteoric rise to the big league rotation, it’s very hard to imagine him not being at the back end of a bullpen within 3 years. Out of all the prospects on the list, Holt’s probably the closest to a sure thing.
Of course, there’s still a million pitfalls a young pitcher can run into between the NYPenn League and the MLB.
Look, I like Holt. I’ll admit it, I wasn’t a fan of the Havens and Holt picks as I thoughts Chris Friedrich and Conor Gillespie were the better selections at those picks and that’s the way I drafted in my mock draft, but Holt is proving me wrong. That said, my excitement it tempered. I’ve been an avid minor league observationalist since the early ’90s when Generation K, Edgardo Alfonzo and that crew was coming up. I’ve seen way too many one pitch pitchers fade away quickly as they moved up the ladder because the were not able to develop their other pitches.
Holt HAS to develop either a good breaking ball or change to be a good major league pitcher period. Very few pitchers that are one pitch fastball pitcher are any good. If all Brad Holt is is a guy with a good fastball and nothing else, then we may not even be a very good reliever. Remember Terry Bross? No, well he has a plus fastball and was supposed to be the closer of the future in the early ’90s. Hitter rocked him as they learned to sit on his fastball.
The fact that Holt dominated the NY-Penn League means nothing. A lot of pitchers that won’t amount to much dominated in the NY-Penn.
Okay, I’m not saying that there isn’t anything to get excited about, but let’s not tab him as the next Mike Pelfrey, yet. Heck, Mike Pelfrey is still not THIS Mike Pelfrey yet because he has to prove that 2008 wasn’t a fluke.
That said, Holt has a plus fastball – that’s been documented to death. If he can develop a breaking pitch that is good/borderline plus and then a serviceable change then he has the potential to be a very good starter.
If he only develops a breakin pitch, then he has a chance to be an 8th-inning reliever or closer.
If he doesn’t develop a second pitch, he’ll be making sandwiches with Terry Bross as Subway in 5 years. Okay, just kidding.
I’m excited about Holt’s potential, but his “floor” is not as high as people think. It’s not like it’s – “Oh, he’ll be a #2 or a closer.” It’s more like he can be either of those OR a complete bust like a Todd Van Poppel, who had better stuff, control and arsenal than Holt and still went bust.
Get excited, but temper that excitement.
I wonder who #1 and #2 are. I’m thinking Toby will pick Flores #1. Just a guess. I still rank Martinez #1, though.
I’m pretty sure Alex Ochoa will be number 1.
My thoughts on Holt pretty much echo those of mrmustseetv; be excited, but lets not go overboard here. As good as Holt’s fastball may be, it’s hard to imagine it’s as good as Pelfrey’s 2 seemer (which might be one of the 5 best fastballs in baseball), and rushing Pelfrey was still a bad idea (just because he turned a corner doens’t mean that messing with his head for two years was a good idea.) Patience here, patience. Lets see how holt does in the FSL.
The situation with Pelfrey I blame Rick Peterson for. For as much as people praise Peterson, my criticism of him was that he never seemed to be able to tailor his style to the pitcher rather the pitcher had to adjust to his style.
He took a fastball pitcher in Pelfrey and tried to make him into a finesse pitcher. Made him rely less on his two-seamer and try other pitches. It just messed with his head.
that is just a flagrantly statement.
one of the most inane things i’ve ever read.
I disagree with the statement about making him rely less on his two-seamer. But other than that it seems pretty on point. What’s inane about it?
Well, i don’t think bouncing the kid up and down helped either. I understand what Rick was trying to do with Pelfrey, but I agree that Peterson was trying to fit him into a mold (strict sinker/slider), rather than letting mike pitch to his strengths.
I’ve never understood why the mets never pushed Pelfrey to develop the change a bit more. Neither one of the breaking balls have ever been any good (the slider has a bit more polish, but it’s a below average pitch at best) and a reasonable circle change would pretty much solve all of Pelfrey’s glaring problems (lack of change of speed, difficulty with lefties) and really be hard to distinguish from the two seemer (which also dives and runs armside.) Now, he has to find a feel for it, but you’ll never know until you try.
“Made him rely less on his two-seamer and try other pitches. It just messed with his head.”
That’s pretty much exactly the opposite of what Peterson did with Pelfrey. He tried to get him to throw the 2 seamer almost exclusively. The difference in Pelfrey now isn’t really that he throws the 2 seamer more than the slider and changeup, it’s that he went back to the 4 seamer as one of his primary pitches, after barely throwing it at all. His success in 08 came from reintroducing the 4 seamer. He said he would right out of spring training. Early in the season, he pitched using mainly the 4 seamer and shelfing the 2 seamer. He didn’t put up good numbers, but he looked much better. He started looking like a world beater when he mixed in the 2 seamer as his secondary pitch.
Pretty much spot on WC. It all started when he ditched the mouthpiece and threw the 4-seemer exclusively for few starts (and for the record, peterson was still the pitching coach when that happened.) Though I would argue that once he reintroduced the ‘bowling ball’ that it again became his primary pitch, though the split is probably pretty close between the two fastballs (I’m far too lazy to comb through the pitch f/x stats to find out.) Either way, the 2-seemer is still his best pitch, and one of the best offerings in the game, as far as I’m concerned.
I still say that I’d like to seem work on/throw more change ups. Even if he only works up to an fringe-average change, I’d rather him throw a pedestrian change than a pedestrian slider, because at least the change would help the lefty/righty split, while the slider is just a show me offering to righties. I’ve never seen much of all in the curve at all, but it’s not like we’ve seen him throw a bunch of them.
I don’t think pitch f/x differentiates between the two fastballs, I know fangraphs had him at an insanely high fastball % which I assume was because it lumped them both together.
I think Holt should be number 1 because of his stuff. He showed to the crowds and I think he deserves #1… I understand Martinez has this hype… but Martinez hurts a lot and Holt does not.
He’s stuff is nasty! mid 90′s!?!? I saw him playing in Brooklyn and he’s stuff is “wow”!!
He should be in AA this year at least, or AAA.