Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6’3”, 175 lbs
Acquired: NDFA
Born: 8/6/91 (Valencia, VZ)
Why Ranked Here: Flores is ranked here because he can hit, and really hit. His bat, says scouts, could well be an All-Star level piece of lumber. In an Appalachian Leauge season which he began at the tender age of 16, Flores had an extra base hit once every 6.9 at bats. Flores rolled through the Appalachian League while playing against players two, three, four even five years his senior.
Flores, who committed 21 errors in 68 games in 2008, is not a good defender at shortstop, nor is he likely to stay at the position as he grows and fills out. Observers who saw him play regularly in Kingsport used words like “awkward” when describing his work at shortstop. At 6’3”, and still growing, Flores is unusually tall for a shortstop. There were only three SS in the top twenty VORP for their position, Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter and Ben Zobrist, listed at 6’3” in 2008. Generally speaking advanced fielding metrics consider the first two below average, if not well below average and Zobrist a strong defender. No MLB starting SS is listed as tall as 6’4”, a height Flores might well reach if he continues to grow. Should Flores reach the Majors at 6’4”, he would be the tallest SS in baseball. It’s not impossible for Flores to stay at short, but succeeding there would be unusual for a player his height. At age 17 in 2009, the Mets will certainly give Flores the opportunity to improve at short even if his MLB position lies in at an infield or outfield corner, where his bat might be good enough to make him a star.
2008: Flores finished fourth in the Appalachian League in total bases. All three players above him had at least three years on him. After crushing to a .331/.363/.554 mark through the season’s first two months, Flores slowed down in August, hitting a more pedestrian .278/.336/.392 in 24 games with Kingsport. The Mets promoted him to Savannah for one day on August 27th, before moving him to Brooklyn, where he had just one extra base hit in his eight games in the NYP.
Dr. Pangloss Says: Flores’s bat could make him a star. He’s big now with batspeed and some power, and will add much more as he fills out.
On the Flipside: It’s not clear where Flores will end up defensively at the MLB level. Properly, the Mets will continue to work him at short in the hope he can stick there, but his size alone makes that a long shot. He doesn’t walk much yet, but that’s really nitpicking in the game of a true kid. Also, he’s years away from the big leagues, which leaves plenty of room for things to go wrong or for further development.
Projected 2009 Start: Savannah
| G | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R - APP | 59 | 245 | 76 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 28 | 2 | 1 | .310 | .352 | .490 |
| A - SAL | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .400 | .400 | .400 |
| SSA - NYP | 8 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | .267 | .290 | .300 |
If Flores has a similar year to what he did in Kingsport last year (or even slightly less productive) do you see him moving up to St. Lucie at some point this year? Or will they give him the entire year at Savannah no matter what?
I thought Toby might give Flores the top spot. I may have too back in August, but Martinez’s strong winter league showing gives him the edge.
I haven’t gotten a chance to see Flores live. I did see him on SNY and one video and all I can say is that I feel old now. He’s a fetus. He reminds a lot of Miguel Cabrera. If you say Cabrera early in his minor league career before he discovered a buffet line, he look like Flores – similar build.
What I have seen of Flores leads me to agree with Toby and the scouts. At 17, he is almost already too big to play short, plus his motions aren’t fluid and his range just average – though I thought his hands were okay though not great.
I like what I’ve seen of his arm, which leads me to think that he may have a future in right field.
His bat will carry him to the big leagues. He showed great maturity playing against older competition. He seemed to tire toward the end of the year, but he’s only 17 playing almost everyday. It’s natural.
As with all young prospects, I will temper my excitement. He is advanced, but he has to continually prove his bat and keep developing. If he continues on this progress then the sky’s the limit for this kid offensively.
I hope he plays in Savannah this season as I may make it down there for an extended weekend, so I am hoping to see him live for a better assessment.
While I criticize the overal depth of the Mets minor league systems in terms of impact players and their dumb decision not to go over-slot, you have to like the Mets top 2 prospects. Martinez (if he can stay healthy) and Flores could be the next two very good/great players that graduate from the Mets system since Wright and Reyes – their tools are than good.
Still, remember that the Mets thought the same thing about Carlos Gomez and Lastings Milledge. With Milledge I think it was his attitude, but with Gomez – he was clearly rushed by the Mets and Twins and has regressed. But considering that Gomez was traded in a weak package for Santana – there are no complaints. Also, the Milledge trade will be judged on how good Church is.
I am very excited about Martinez and Flores. You add Daniel Murphy to the mix and the Mets have some nice young pieces coming out of the farm.
It’s tough to criticize Gomez, and while you didn’t really do that, I can’t say he really fell off as a prospect. he advanced through our system much like Reyes did in that his defense was very good and ML ready while the offense had time to catch up. Reyes was ahead at his arrival offensivley, but thats not the point. Gomez played great for MIN, even hitting for the cycle. In that he helped us acquire Santana, then i can’t knock him one bit.
Milledge was highly touted and suffered from some Fernando-type injuires whenever he got hot in AAA, further delaying his help to us. But that deal will depend on what Church can provide us. And I think he can provide very much to us.
Either way, I am very excited about Wilmer and Fernando as our top 2 prospects, and fernando is only 20 years old and only up to 1 year away from seeing ML time IMO.
It’ll be interesting to see what they do in 2,3 years when Reyes is about to hit Free agency. I dont think there should be any doubt that we pay him what he wants and keep him at SS, but just saying b/c of Wilmer. Although, I agree with many that he will not be a SS in MLB.
It’s all well and good that he tore up the lower minors, but I can’t get excited until he at least begins ripping up A+. I would have ranked him out of the top five for that reason alone– the fact that he’s so far away. Kill me for this one also, but I would bump Holt down the list for the same reason. Benefit of the doubt goes to the MLB-readiest guys on my end.
I doubt you’re thinking literally about who you’d rank above them. Outside of Fernando, there aren’t 4 guys in the upper minors impressive enough to knock out Holt and Flores in any way, shape, or form. You don’t even like Niese, about whom nearly the only argument can be made. That’s an incredible amount of faith in Parnell to become a good bullpen arm, and putting anyone out of Gee/Antonini/Thole/Bowman/Duda/Coronado above the two is crazy talk.
Is your position that you need to have at least been “ripping up A+” to make it into the top five??? First of all, good thing you are not a GM of other teams in MLB (including the Twins — see Guerra, a key component of the Santana trade). Second of all, I still fail to see how that would drop him (or Holt for that matter) out of the top five — Evans and Murphy don’t qualify, Carp is gone, and who else is there who has “ripped up A+” or above? On Toby’s list, you would have to go down to Parnell, Kunz and Gee to get there. Kunz showed us last year he is not quite the “MLB-readiest guy”, and historically, he has been better and more proven than Parnell. Gee? Over Flores? And I like Gee! Why don’t you post who your top five would be (since they apparently would not include the two prospects who in some ways, may have the most trade value of all)???
Thanks for jumping down my throat. I’m not saying I would be prepared to ship any of them off. I’m not in the business of including guys below A+ in trades unless it nets, say, Johan Santana or Mike Piazza. There is no prospect valuable enough to hold back in a trade for one of the game’s premier players in his prime.
I would keep Flores and Holt by all means, but to get insanely excited over them is IMO ridiculous. Just let them develop. They could be great; they could be garbage.
As for my top five that would include neither of those guys:
1. Fernando Martinez – as he has done well at AA and I’ve seen him play several times, one of which was in person, and I have faith in his skills.
2. Bobby Parnell – because I think he has a great shot at being a bottom-rotation starter with a mean streak, like Jake Westbrook except with the ability to stay healthy. He has a plus two-seam fastball and an underrated slider. Shoot me.
3. Jon Niese – not necessarily because I like him, but because he made the Majors at 21 already and can still make enough adjustments to be– like I mentioned in my comment about him– another Jamie Moyer type as he gets older. His floor is a really good LOOGY a la Pedro Feliciano in his day.
4. Dillon Gee – because he’s found success at literally every single level thus far, and he’s simply further along than Flores and Holt. He could legitimately make his debut in September. His control numbers are unreal.
5. Eddie Kunz – plus-plus sinker means he still has a great shot at being a closer-caliber player. It’s almost certain at this point he becomes a permanent contributor in the Mets bullpen by September.
For the record, Coronado would be 6 (I consider him heavily underrated) and Holt 7, then Antonini 8 and Flores 9.
THIS IS NOT A MEASURE OF TRADE VALUE. IT IS A MEASURE OF GUYS’ ABILITY TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAJOR LEAGUE TEAM, OBVIOUSLY SOONER THAN LATER. That is the way I prefer to rank prospects. For me, a farm system is not about developing trade chips. It’s about cranking out young depth that can carry a team through the rigors of a 162-game season and eventually the starters that will serve as your franchise cornerstones. The homegrown players breed the most excitement and loyalty from the fan base, and they come the cheapest both during their initial contracts and when they re-sign at a hometown discount.
Toby has clearly ranked on trade value. That’s fine. I don’t put any stock in low-level prospects as they are almost always throw-ins to deals and really portend nothing as far as MLB contributions. There’s a long line of heavily hyped players who have turned into basically nothing. I prefer getting back the closer players to sure things. BY THAT LOGIC, I CONSIDER FLORES AND HOLT UNTOUCHABLE– NOT DUE TO PURE SKILL, BUT BECAUSE THE VALUE THEY BRING BACK WOULD NOT JUSTIFY TRADING THEM. That is, unless I can get Andrew Friedman totally hammered and trade Flores for David Price straight-up.
As far as factoring my prospects into my plans for the MLB team, though, if you think I’m penciling in Flores or Holt, you’d have to be nuts. However, I can take my pencil and write in Coronado for 2B because he’s basically ready now. That’s the sole justification for my ranking. It’s not because I think Coronado will be a better player than Wilmer Flores. That, we can all agree, is ridiculous.
I hope that satisfies everyone.
Yeah. Um. Reading over everthing thats been written I have no idea why you are talking about trade value as a measure for these prospects. It seems that you totally misunderstood “Displaced Mets Fans” point – and his one reference to a GM – and ran with it. From what I understood he intimated that you would not be a good GM because you would value MLB readiness over skill set, hence the Guerra comment. And I totally disgree with your assessment that Toby’s ranking is based on trade value. Not at all.
If you think Toby ranked on trade value do you think all prospect lists are based on trade value? Cause I can’t think of any prospect list from any source I’ve seen, for the mets, that looks much different from Toby’s. Most of the guys you listed are fringe prospects/major leaguers. Usually prospects are ranked by a combination of upside/talent and how close they are to the major leagues. I don’t see how being older makes a bunch of guys who will likely be career AAAA’s/fringe players better prospects.
Also why would you pencil in ? Other than being old what has he shown that makes you think he’s ready? Teams just don’t pencil in awful players because they’re old, or at least not teams that are trying to win.
There is literally nothing else substantiating the national publications’ rankings of Tim Beckham and Casey Kelly than trade value. They both crapped out exceptionally hard, and Kelly now has to switch positions. Would you rank Beckham as the 15th-best prospect in America when he started in a lower League than Wilmer Flores and put up like a .550 OPS? Wilmer is younger and has produced at a higher level. Other than the fact that Tim Beckham was drafted first overall and the Rays would never trade him for Flores, there’s nothing substantiating him being 15th and Flores being like 50th on every national list out there. By all rights, Flores should be ranked ahead of him, considering he has had actual success at playing baseball professionally, but what do I know?
If Toby’s ranking isn’t based on trade value, what is it based on? Potential? Potential’s nice, but it doesn’t mean anything. Would you have killed me for ranking Ty Wigginton over Paul Wilson? For ranking Mike Jacobs over a freshly-drafted Lastings Milledge?
Toby, you have Flores, Marte, and Lagares all marked for Savannah. How do you see this working? With Flores and Marte both needing work defensively they could be a bad combo on one side of an IF.
Kinda agree with Smokey…. Basically Flores could legitimately be a junior in high school…
Is there a high school junior out there that would rank as the 2nd best prospect in any org.?
also agree on Holt a little…. He may have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the org. but only if he develops his secondary pitches… He’s probably had more heliem then any player selected last year. Prior to that basically no one had heard of him. Not a lot of history to go on with him except one great year. He pulled that year off with primarily one pitch which he wont be able to do this year. He could easily be a top 3 prospect but imo he hasnt proved it yet.
hmm… this doesn’t answer my question at all…. but thanks for the reply I guess.
I love this kid!! He has the potential!!
Some say he might be next.. Miguel Cabrera!?!!?
I don’t know about that, but he might hit a lot of home run
I’ve watched Flores play several times this season for the Sand Gnats. It’s obvious to me the guy is special, even though his stats this season don’t give a clear indication of his true talent and big potential He is young, tall, lanky and posseses amazing instincts and displays great fundamentals, especially for a kid that who just turned 18 earlier this month.