1. F-Mart OF
2. Javier Rodriguez OF
3. Cesar Puello RF
4. Kirk Nieuwenhuis OF
5. Eric Campbell 3B/LF
6. Rafael Fernandez OF
7. Pedro Zapata CF

Martinez is followed by Puello, who has a chance to really hit, and two guys who have the athleticism to play CF.  Campbell started to play LF for Brooklyn and the big guy, who scouts liked a little, showed some wheels. Fernandez and Zapata are both pretty raw.

Because, dear reader, your request is my command, I’ve broken down my top Mets prospects by position.  In doing so, I’ve taken the liberty of sprinkling in 10 extra names just for giggles.  All but one of the new entrants has played a professional game on US soil, but I made an exception for Aderlin Rodriguez.

Actually, I think it’s a worthwhile exercise to split it up as it reveals some areas of organizational strenghth ….. and umm the opposite of stregnth.

I was tempted to lump SS and 2B together into a monster middle infielder category, but that’s not really fair to the SS who could play 2B, whereas the 2B are listed as such because they can’t play SS.

I also gave thought to breaking the OF up into corner guys and CF guys, but decided that there were such a small number of players, it was not worth the effort.

In Matt Cerrone’s nice interview with Bobby Parnell at Metsblog, one exchange struck me.  The two were talking about Parnell’s work on a splitter, a pitch he threw in college, but picked but up this spring.

Matt:  How long does it take?

Parnell: Talking to JJ [Putz], he says he says he still works on his. I feel like I’ll always be working on it…

I like this answer.  There is no point at which a pitcher feels like he can’t improve a pitch.  Something to ponder.

Toby, I have a question about your methodology used when making the list.  What type of prospect would have a greater value, a player who has a 90% chance to reach his ceiling of a solid, everyday MLB player (i.e. Ryan Church), or someone who has a 50% chance to be a MVP-type superstar, but also a 50% chance of being an Alex (Escobar or Ochoa)?

Thanks,

Kevin

This is a very interesting question. To answer the question Kevin asked, I’ll take the superstar candidate. Superstars are way, way more valuable than solid, everyday type players. The problem is that the question as Kevin posed it is very unrealistic. No prospect has a 90% chance of being a solid everyday MLBer, and no chance at being a star. Moreover, the guy who has a 50% chance of being an MVP type superstar should have a downside of an everyday guy. So it’s not quite this cut and dried, but I like upside when ranking prospects.

Hey Toby,
Where would you have ranked Mike Carp, Maikel Cleto, Zeke Carrera, and Jason Vargas if they hadn’t been traded this offseason?

Chris W.

This is a question about the gaggle of prospects the Mets traded for JJ Putz.

In my rankings on the day before the trade, I had Mike Carp at #13. The last position player ahead of him was Jefry Marte, and the next below him was Ike Davis. I was a little relieved that the Mets traded Carp because ranking him is tricky. Hitting .299/.403/.471 in AA at age 22 as Carp did in 2008 is nothing to scoff at, but most scouts just don’t seem to buy him doing it at the MLB level.

I had Cleto at #18, one ahead of Ezequiel Carrera. Brant Rustich was the the next pitcher above Cleto, while Angel Calero and Robert Carson were behind him. Javier Rodriguez was the position player ranked in front of Carrera, with Josh Thole in behind him.

Vargas has pitched too many MLB innings to be rookie eligible thus was not under consideration on my list.

Bats/Throws: L/R

Height/Weight: 6’1”, 190 lbs

Acquired: NDFA 2005

Born: 10/10/88 (Rio San Juan, DR)

Why Ranked Here: Martinez maintains the top spot on this list by combining just about the best upside in the system with a close proximity to the Major Leagues. I became a believer watching Martinez take BP in the summer of 2008. The ball just exploded off his bat thanks to plus batspeed which generated above average power from left-center on over to rightfield. It was easy for him. Martinez has held his own in centerfield for the last two years in Binghamton, but with Carlos Beltran patrolling center for the Mets, if Martinez is going to make an impact at Citi Field in 2009, it will be on the corners. At this point, Martinez will grow up into a big leaguer, although scouts differ on whether he will be a solid regular or something much better.

2008: Martinez doubled his homerun production from 2007 in Binghamton, moving from four to eight, but he once again battled injuries, missing over a month in May and June. It all seemed to click for Martinez playing winter ball for Escogido in the Dominican Republic. Tellingly, he had the highest walk rate of his career and the best power numbers, homerun rates of his career. It would appear that he took the crucial step of becoming more selective, learning which pitches he can drive.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Martinez gets off to a hot start in Buffalo and forces his way onto the Mets roster where he becomes an important piece of the playoff bound Mets in 2009.

On the Flipside: Martinez has not played more than the 86 games in a season he played in 2008. When he wasn’t playing everyday in 2008 in July, it looked as though Martinez had allowed himself to become a little thick through the middle although he appeared to have slimed down during his time in winter ball.

Projected 2009 Start: AAA Buffalo Bisons

I’ll be doing a live chat tonight at 8 PM EST at the Happy Recap, a very tastefully named Mets board.  We’ll be talking what else, prospects and minor leaguers.  Prospect rankings and anything else you can think of will be fair game.

Click here to join in at 8 PM EST.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6’3”, 175 lbs

Acquired: NDFA

Born: 8/6/91 (Valencia, VZ)

Why Ranked Here: Flores is ranked here because he can hit, and really hit. His bat, says scouts, could well be an All-Star level piece of lumber. In an Appalachian Leauge season which he began at the tender age of 16, Flores had an extra base hit once every 6.9 at bats. Flores rolled through the Appalachian League while playing against players two, three, four even five years his senior.

Flores, who committed 21 errors in 68 games in 2008, is not a good defender at shortstop, nor is he likely to stay at the position as he grows and fills out. Observers who saw him play regularly in Kingsport used words like “awkward” when describing his work at shortstop. At 6’3”, and still growing, Flores is unusually tall for a shortstop. There were only three SS in the top twenty VORP for their position, Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter and Ben Zobrist, listed at 6’3” in 2008. Generally speaking advanced fielding metrics consider the first two below average, if not well below average and Zobrist a strong defender. No MLB starting SS is listed as tall as 6’4”, a height Flores might well reach if he continues to grow. Should Flores reach the Majors at 6’4”, he would be the tallest SS in baseball. It’s not impossible for Flores to stay at short, but succeeding there would be unusual for a player his height. At age 17 in 2009, the Mets will certainly give Flores the opportunity to improve at short even if his MLB position lies in at an infield or outfield corner, where his bat might be good enough to make him a star.

2008: Flores finished fourth in the Appalachian League in total bases. All three players above him had at least three years on him. After crushing to a .331/.363/.554 mark through the season’s first two months, Flores slowed down in August, hitting a more pedestrian .278/.336/.392 in 24 games with Kingsport. The Mets promoted him to Savannah for one day on August 27^th, before moving him to Brooklyn, where he had just one extra base hit in his eight games in the NYP.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Flores’s bat could make him a star. He’s big now with batspeed and some power, and will add much more as he fills out.

On the Flipside: It’s not clear where Flores will end up defensively at the MLB level. Properly, the Mets will continue to work him at short in the hope he can stick there, but his size alone makes that a long shot. He doesn’t walk much yet, but that’s really nitpicking in the game of a true kid. Also, he’s years away from the big leagues, which leaves plenty of room for things to go wrong or for further development.  

Projected 2009 Start: Savannah