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I haven’t been linking to a lot of the draft coverage, and the first round mock drafts simply because the Mets don’t have a first round pick. (The Angels own the Mets first round pick as compensation for K-Rod.) However, as always the draft is a crucial opportunity to add talent for every organization.
Anyone who dares to predict who will be available at the Mets first pick in the second round at #72 is really stretching the truth. Instead, I thought I’d look to the Mets recent drafts under GM Omar Minaya for guidance.
In each draft since 2005, the Mets first selection played college baseball (Mike Pelfrey -05, Kevin Mulvey – 06, Eddie Kunz – 07 and Ike Davis – 08. Of that list, only Mulvey was drafted in the second round.
In the second round since 2005, the Mets have selected two college pitchers (Mulvey and Brant Rustich -07), one HS pitcher (Scott Moviel -07) and one HS position player, (Javier Rodriguez – 08) who was a pretty big surprise on draft day. Rodriguez however, was already the Mets fourth pick last year following Davis, Reese Havens and Brad Holt, three collegians.
The Mets have exclusively picked college players in the third round and trended towards pitching nabbing Joe Smith in 06, Eric Niesen and Stephen Clyne in 07 and OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis in 08.
Moreover, over Minaya’s tenure, the Mets have shifted towards college players. The chart below compares the number of players the Mets drafted in the first 15 rounds from college, high school and junior colleges. In 2005, the Mets picked 7 high schoolers, three collegians and a pair of players from junior colleges in the first 15 rounds. By 2008, that had shifted to 12 collegians, three high schools and one JC player.
If I was a betting man, I’d wager that the Mets will draft two collegians on Tuesday night. I’d also bet further that at least one if not both will be a pitcher.
This makes sense especially with how large Citi Field plays, bringing the Mets back to their older strengths of SP and defense. I think the Mets will have to focus on Speed, D and pitching winning by small ball to adhere to the limitations Citi Field will bring.
Its quite funny how both New York teams have gone to two separate extremes with their new ballparks. Very small sample sizes, but still intriguing.
Personally, I want the Mets to pick up a mix of everything, by picking the B-O-A and pay them above slot if need be. The team’s lower levels are looking good, but I want more high risk, high reward guys than they’ve taken in the past. The Mets should take advantage of teams being frugal by getting the best they can.
I wonder if at least a part of this trend is related to the Mets’ efforts in Latin America. If the Mets believe that it is more cost effective to acquire young, high ceiling talent through their Caribbean pipeline, they would be less inclined to take risks on those types of players in the draft (especially if they come with a Scott Boras-type price tag). That may be part of the reason we’re seeing the Mets use their draft picks to acquire “safer” college players who might have lower ceilings, but be more likely to reach them.
Wow, the Mets took a HS pitcher with their top pick. Did not see that coming. Anyone know anything about Steven Matz (other than that his name goes very well with the team that drafted him)?
Let’s go Mets… and Matz!
From the short mlb.com video on him, he looks like a control pitcher with some pretty refined pitches for a high schooler. I like his mechanics; his motion looks very sound.
He’s from Long Island so the transition to professional ball should be really easy in Brooklyn and later (hopefully) in Binghamton and Buffalo.
ESPN has a different take, which I’m sure is more accurate: 88-92 fastball, plus curveball and a developing changeup, they think his motion is not clean with a violent finish.
He committed to coastal carolina, but the mets must think they are in a good position to sign him.
hes starting in the GCL first, but yeah, once he moves up the ranks it should be an easy transition