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Friday, after publishing a Prospect Hot Sheet that was Mets-free, JJ Cooper took a couple of Mets questions in his associated chat.
JAYPERS (IL): Josh Thole has been very consistent thus far this season. Is he in your Mets' Top 10 prospects list if you had to put one together today?
J.J. Cooper: I couldn’t put him in my personal Top 10 yet because I’m still worried about where he plays in the big leagues. On the one hand, the man can hit, and that’s the most important tool there is. But on the other, there are still concerns about where he’ll play in the big leagues. He ranks near the bottom of the Eastern League in caught stealing percentage (31.5 percent) and he’s still working on framing pitches. If he can’t catch well enough to be an everyday catcher, he doesn’t really have a clear full-time position. He doesn’t have the power (one home run this year with a career high of five) to play first base, especially for a big-market team like the Mets, and he’s too slow to be an outfielder. He may end up as a very useful lefty hitting backup catcher who can play some first, but his lack of a profile means he still has an uphill battle for a starting job.
I agree with Cooper that if Thole’s defense is not good enough to start at catcher, he’s a tweener, whose offensive profile doesn’t play at first at all. On the other hand, I have Thole in my Mets top 10 now. I’ll also point out that with the relative decrease in the importance of stealing bases to offensive production around the leaguein the last twenty-five years, the Mets could live with a catcher who doesn’t have a Pudge-like arm. Lets play a game, construct a reasonable Mets top 10 without Thole.
Jack Bauer (We'll see): Where's Ike Davis? He hit .333 with 2 HR, 1 2B, 4 BB and only 3 K. He's leading the Florida State League in XBH and Total Bases and is near the top of the leaderboard in just about every stat. Where's the love?
J.J. Cooper: Dropping 24 references won’t work on me like it will on Callis—try Top Gear references for me, but I’ll answer anyway. Ike was on the short list this week, although he was a little ways from making the photo. But he’s having a very solid year and has done a good job of putting last year’s putrid start behind him. But he is a good example of how it’s worth remembering when some first or second-round pick goes out and stinks up the joint in short-season ball this year that it isn’t time to write them off. Prospects can be gassed or otherwise struggle in their first pro season, just ask Chipper Jones.
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re: Thole – i remember someone here said why bring up Thole to be a backup catcher next year… well JJ Cooper basically answered that. His defense still needs to improve this year though, if it does, I can see him being the backup catcher for the Mets next year.. and if they think he has the pontential to be a #1 starting catcher they should sign someone like Bengie Molina to a 1 year deal. Molina/Thole would be a nice catching tandem next year, but again thats assuming if Thole improves his defense a bit more.
Well Thole is 22 and in AA. You figure he gets another 2-3 years of seasoning in the minors if need be to work on his defense and game calling in AA this year and AAA next year then you have to assume that he will be ready to go.
If he’s not a catcher he has little or no pop to be considered an every day anything.
I dont think it should take that long.. hes killing pitchers in AA (with his bat), he should jump to AAA this year. But again, that depends on how the Mets feel about his defense and game calling.
Here’s my take on the Thole situation. At the end of the season, the Mets will believe one of the following 3 things: (1) Thole’s defense is MLB ready (or close enough that it can be polished at the MLB level); (2) Thole’s defense is not yet MLB ready, but he could still reach that point; or (3) Thole’s defense is not MLB ready, and it’s unlikely it ever will be (at least to the level of a Major League starting catcher).
If (1) is true, Thole should be the Mets starting catcher going into Spring Training next year. They should bring in a veteran as his backup, someone they’d be comfortable enough to have as a Plan B regular catcher.
If (2) is true, Thole should be in AAA as the starting catcher, focusing on whatever deficiencies kept the Mets from considering him for the big league job.
If (3) is true, but the Mets are comfortable enough with him as an MLB backup catcher, then I guess that’s where he should be. I just don’t see why as an organization you’d make that determination on someone so young.
To me, it makes no sense to have Thole as the major league backup if scenario (1) or (2) is true. If either is the case, Thole needs to be getting regular work, be it at AAA or in the Majors.
As far as Cooper’s leading criticism, CS% is one of the most overrated statistics out there. Frankly, it’s as much a function of the pitcher as it is the catcher (for what it’s worth, only 11 MLB catchers with at least 30 starts this year have thrown out runners at a clip better than 31.5%). Regardless, it doesn’t even matter that much. After the Mets, the Dodgers are the most likely team in the NL to attempt a steal, with 81 tries in 70 games, an average of just 1.16 attempts per game. If throwing out runners is Thole’s main problem, then I’m thrilled. I don’t care if he only throws out 15% of would be base-stealers, his offense more than makes up for it. It seems more likely, however, that his trouble areas are gamecalling and pitch framing (which Cooper also mentioned). That’s the kind of thing that requires lots of reps and close coaching, neither of which he’s likely to get as an MLB backup.
Well this year, the Mets and Dodgers are top teams that steal bases but in years to come maybe alot more teams are running teams — look at Pittsburgh the OFers run very well. I like Thole and hope he can become a nice catching prospect, but if not I hope an AL team finds him very useful in which we can trade for another need (maybe an ARM or something)
Remember guys the minors is to 1) have young players to down the line become pros in New York 2) have players to trade to help the organization
Now you want to bring up that New York makes bad trades (which they do alot) fine, but maybe Thole is more a DH type player. But at 22, the Mets have time to see if his catching ablity improves.
Thole reminds me a little bit of John Baker on the Marlins-a catcher who doesn’t have much power but will consistently be around .300. That being said, once Schneider goes, I say make give Omir Santos the starting job. And if not, we have Abruzzo, Pena, and Doyle all as catchers in addition to Thole