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Top 41 Review: 21-25

By Toby Hyde on 10. Jul, 2009

This is part four of my continuing review of my pre-season ranking of the Mets Top 41 prospects.  Part 1 (36-41) is here, part 2 (31-35) is here and part 3 (26-30) is here.  Among this group, there’s only one guy decidedly up (Beaulac) while Nieuwenhuis is in a similar position he was at the beginning of the year.

#21 LHP Angel Calero

  ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 SO/BB GO/AO
08 A 2.57 12/12 66.2 54 30 19 3 15 59 2.04 8.02 0.41 3.93 0.86
08 A+ 7.07 4/4 14 18 11 11 3 7 10 4.50 6.43 1.93 1.43 0.52
09 A+ 4.24 13/13 68 74 38 32 5 29 51 3.84 6.75 0.66 1.76 0.93

Stock: confused, but down a little

Lets toss out Calero’s St. Lucie performance in 2009 under the assumption that his shoulder was never right from the time he arrived in Florida.  This year, when he says he’s healthy, he’s been pretty hittable, yielding over a knock an inning, and is striking out below seven batters an inning.

#22 RHP Eric Beaulac

  ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 SO/BB GO/AO
08 NYP 9.82 2/0 3.2 1 4 4 0 2 6 5.63 16.88 0.00 3.00 0.25
08 APP 1.89 6/2 19 15 5 4 1 6 23 2.84 10.89 0.47 3.83 1.36
08 SAL 3.55 6/6 25.1 22 13 10 1 18 31 6.45 11.12 0.36 1.72 1.47
09 SAL 2.72 14/7 56.1 47 24 17 5 21 65 3.37 10.43 0.80 3.10 1.31

Stock: Up

eric-beaulac-cyclones-hatThe 22 year-old Beaulac has addressed my major worry about the right-hander from 2008, his increased walk rate in the SAL, by dropping it almost by a half from 2008 to 2009.  Even though he’s throwing more strikes, he’s not giving up any more hits, although his home run rate has increased.  His strikeout rate is still a sparkling 10.43.  He’s very safely among my top 20 prospects and is a guy who probably doesn’t get written about or talked about enough.

If I were running the Mets farm system, and clearly I’m not, I would promote Beaulac to St. Lucie displacing Nick Waechter from the rotation.

#23 OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis

  G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG BB% K% XBH% PA
08 SSA 74 285 79 15 5 3 29 70 11 7 .277 .348 .396 9.09 21.94 7.21 319
09 A+ 69 268 68 16 1 9 28 67 12 1 .254 .338 .422 9.24 22.11 8.58 303

Stock: Barely holding

nieuwenhuis-stance2009 looks a lot like 2008, doesn’t it?

There are a lot of things to like about Nieuwenhuis’s game: he can play centerfield, has the arm for right, and walks in over nine percent of his plate appearances.  On the downside, he’s striking out in over 20%, and his average is in the .250 range.  I’d need to see some improvement in something, to have him rise up the rankings and project him as anything other than a backup.

#24 LHP Michael Antonini

  ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB GO/AO
08 A 2.71 13/13 73.0 63 29 22 2 16 61 1.97 7.52 3.81 1.05
08 A+ 1.84 7/7 44.0 34 10 9 3 7 33 1.43 6.75 4.71 1.18
08 AA 3.74 8/8 45.2 43 19 19 10 16 32 3.19 6.37 2.00 0.72
08 PWL 3.45 9/8 47.0 42 18 18 4 13 29 2.49 5.55 2.23 0.73
09 AAA 12.27 2/2 7.1 16 10 10 1 3 6 3.80 7.61 2.00 1.29
09 AA 5.02 13/11 66.1 76 37 37 6 19 54 2.59 7.35 2.84 0.83

Stock: Down

mike-antoniniAntonini’s two starts in AAA were a disaster.   In AA, Antonini has been in the strike zone more in 2009 than in 2008 with a a little increase in his K/rate and decrease in walk rate.  However, the price he’s paid for the extra strikes have been extra hits.  The Mets recently moved Antonini to the AA bullpen, which indicates that he has slipped in the eyes of his employers.    He’s still a three pitch guy, fastball, slider and change, and I don’t see any of them working well enough to be a quality big leaguer.

#25 2B Greg Veloz

  G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG BB% SO% XBH% PA
08 A 111 455 130 25 5 6 32 93 28 12 .286 .339 .402 6.39 18.56 7.19 501
08 A+ 21 77 18 1 0 0 7 20 1 2 .234 .298 .247 8.24 23.53 1.18 85
08 HWB 25 87 18 2 0 0 9 27 2 2 .207 .281 .230 9.38 28.13 2.08 96
09 A+ 62 246 60 11 1 0 21 53 15 7 .244 .307 .297 7.69 19.41 4.40 273

Stock: Down

That’s a bad first half.  Veloz, who doesn’t yet walk much or hit for any power is going to have to hit .300 to have any offensive value.  His strikeout rate is down this year in the FSL to near where it was in the SAL last season, but that’s just too many whiffs for a guy with his skillset, who is little threat to drive the ball.  He had a big second half in 2008 and will need another similar surge in 2009 or face a dramatic slide in my rankings.

6 Comments

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  1. NickM
    10. Jul, 2009 at 3:27 pm #

    Agreed on Beaulac, he should be bumped up to St. Lucie rotation.

  2. JB
    10. Jul, 2009 at 4:41 pm #

    It seems that a lot of the prospects in your rankings have had their stock slip. These are supposed to be the TOP prospects in our farm. Is this common (the top of the top remain to a certain extent…top 1-5 or so…and the others fluctuate in and out over the course of a year?) So after the top 10, are they more break out candidates than legitimate prospects?

    • NickM
      10. Jul, 2009 at 4:48 pm #

      i would assume alot of guys at the top of the prospects list have stock up.. ie: Thole, Davis, Flores (might be “even” .. depends on what people expected.. hes hit well for his age in the SAL but hasn’t really hit for power, which im not worried about hes still very young and i keep going back to the fact miguel cabrera didn’t break out with power until he reached the majors), FMart, Davis, Holt, Mejia

      • ravin108
        10. Jul, 2009 at 11:34 pm #

        I’m sure there were also guys who weren’t on the pre-season top 41 but have jumped onto the list

  3. NickM
    10. Jul, 2009 at 4:45 pm #

    i noticed something in mets transactions: they signed undrafted RHP bobby gagg – http://thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Bobby-Gagg.shtml .. good numbers, but nothing dominant in college. he was assigned to the GCL.

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