|
|
|
Trading Ryan Church for Jeff Francouer accomplishes nothing for the Mets other than strengthening a division rival. Actually, it makes the Mets worse. I will say it simply: Ryan Church is a better baseball player than Jeff Francouer.
Compare their 2009 stat lines in the table below. VORP is Value Over Replacement Player, a Baseball Prospectus Stat that compares players against the free talent type AAA guys, measured in runs. UZR is Ultimate Zone Rating, and measures how many runs above or below average a player is at his position. PMR is David Pinto’s Probalistic Model of Range and the number below is a ratio of how many balls a fielder handles, versus how many he was expected to field. Bigger is better.
Church vs. Francouer 2009
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | 2B | HR | VORP | UZR (RF) | PMR (RF- 2008) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Church | 255 | .280 | .332 | .375 | 16 | 2 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 99.31 |
| Jeff Francoeur | 324 | .250 | .282 | .352 | 12 | 5 | -7.1 | 0.6 | 102.14 |
Add the VORP and UZR columns together and Church has been basically 12 runs better than Francouer this year. That means he’s over one full win better.
Omar Minaya explains why the Mets made the move, as quoted by Brian Costa in the Star-Ledger:
“We just wanted to change it up a little bit,”
Sorry, that’s not a good reason. Lets try another one. Minaya as quoted by Tim Britton of MLB.com:
“This ballpark plays better for Francoeur because, even though Ryan Church is a good defensive player, Francoeur covers a lot of ground,” Minaya said. “Base hits to right field — you just don’t run [on Francoeur].”
This is half right. Francouer doesn’t cover any more ground, but he does have a good arm. The overall defensive metrics don’t really like him any better than Church.
So, when does this help the Mets?
“This is a trade that’s not only for now, but for next year and beyond, because of the youth of the player… (also from Britton)
Oh. It’s going to help this year and next year, when Francouer learns how to take a pitch. Francouer has a sub .300 OBP, but it’ll be better next year. Francouer’s OBPs from 2005-08: .336, .293, .338, .294. The clear trend has been – no trend at all. He’s at best still the same player, as he was four years ago. Maybe he’s worse. Rightfielders with sub-.300 OBP do not help baseball teams win games.
It’s true that Francouer is younger than Church and more durable. The idea is that younger players have more room to improve. The only problem is that the Mets new outfielder hasn’t progressed at all in the last four years. Not one bit. And he’s so bad offensively, he’s costing his team runs when he’s in the lineup.
And yet, Minaya as quoted by Adam Rubin in the Daily News, knows that Francouer needs to take a walk now and then:
“He’s going to have to improve his plate discipline if he’s going to be the player he needs to be in the major leagues,” Minaya said.
And as quoted by Ed Price at AOL’s Fanhouse:
“I do believe because he’s 25 years old,” Minaya said, “I think he can improve that.”
Sorry. There’s no evidence that Francouer has improved. He could, but there’s no evidence that it has happened. Or will happen. Actually, the numbers say he’s consistently gotten worse. Francouer’s WARP1 (which includes offense and defense) from Prospectus by year from 2005 onward: 2.8, .1, 4.8, -0.6, -0.8.
Price also finds a scout to point out that Francouer hasn’t made any kind of progress at all since his MLB debut in 2005:
“He’s gone backward,” the scout told FanHouse. “He’s too tight, too stiff. It’s going to be a project.”
Ted Berg nails this one in his column at SNY.tv, writing in part,
I didn’t think the front office could be so silly as to think Jeff Francoeur might be the answer to any single one of their questions.
… snip…
So what’s the plan there, exactly, until Beltran gets back? Angel Pagan? That guy who’s never had more than 170 at-bats in a big-league season and who has spent most of the last two seasons on the Disabled List? Awesome. I hope you’re stretched out, Cory Sullivan.
Ah yes, “plan.” What is the plan here, anyway? Is this a move to get younger in the hopes of competing in the future? I would at least see the purpose there, but man, if that’s the idea, I’d rather acquire someone unproven than someone who is steadily declining.
As a Mets fan, I’m terrified about what this move means for the Mets decision making process. Will the team use this as an excuse to not upgrade the outfield over the winter? Could the Mets enter the off-season thinking that they’re now set in the OF for 2010 with Beltran flanked by Francouer and Martinez with Nick Evans backing up the corner spots?
ugh, I can’t count the times I’ve mocked how bad Francoeur is
this season is lost, but did we have to give the braves a solid player, who’ll help them compete this year and probably platoon with Matt Diaz for an OPS of a billion next year when their pitching is sick?
best part is going to be when Francoeur goes on a power streak, flashes his still-terrible 06 form, the front office thinks they’ve found their young stud outfielder and makes Fernando expandable
They should have just signed Pat Burrell. He’s a better player and he wouldn’t have made the fan base and more disgusted than trading for a Brave…
You know just when it seems the organization can’t do anything worse to its fanbase this year they find a way to try.
In terms of the future, yes Francoeur is younger, but both players will be free agents after 2011. So the Mets gained nothing in terms of service time. And got worse in terms of talent on the field.
As for the last paragraph’s question… that is a resounding yes. Francoeur will be billed as the replacement for Delgado’s power and the everyday RF and middle of the order bat… Although I would still hope they go after a new LF and see Evans and Reed as the bench OF.
no hes not. there is no way francoeur will be the power that replaces delgado, unless he suddenly bursts out for 30 HR with the Mets.
Oh I know that, but just watch, Omar will sell it…
eh i thought it was a good deal… church wasn’t really liked by management it seemed, it was inevitable he would be traded, so they got a guy who, IF HE GETS RIGHTED, could be a hell of a player.
it makes the braves better this year… but so what? the mets are pretty much done for this year anyway.. this a future move IMO
I guess there is no longer a shot at getting Alex Rios. I thought he would have been perfect for the Mets. Simply moving him to the NL would boost his stats and while his contract is ridiculous this team should be able to make a move in which they give up a non prospect and take on money
I pretty much side with Toby on this. But, in the grand scheme, the move by itself doesnt really matter (unless you felt you could get better talent back for Church).
If anything, it gives the mets 1/2 a year to see if they can get any improvements out of him, and to evaluate what they got. If he comepletely stinks out citi filed (highly probable), then they probably just cut him loose somehow.
At least they didn’t get stuck with a vernon wells like terrible contract, to go along with a terrible player.
And hey, it wouldn’t be the 1st time a hot shot “natural” prospect had to get beat down, before rising from the ashes, right? DIdn’t Jayson Werth do pretty much the same thing?
if frenchy really stinks it up, they could easily dump him to texas in the off-season where jaramillo would take him under his wing and get him in that hitter’s park (seriously, look at Andruw Jones whose OPS increased over .300 points from last year to this year)… and then that opens the door to pick up a power hitting OF via free agency.
Jason Werth was a guy with a lot of talent who had injury problems, got healthy, got a shot, and put it together.
Francoeur is a guy that had lots of raw power, never put together a good season in the minors, got called up young because they thought he could hit home runs and hope he might magically learn plate discipline when he’s shown absolutely nothing in his entire career to indicate that he could learn to take a walk.
Francoeur is horrible. Saying he might be a good player if he learns plate discipline is a lot like saying Angel Pagan might be a good player if he learns to hit 35 homeruns.
OH, and I think Toby alluded to this, but while I consider this deal to be a bit of a head scratcher, it is mostly a “whatever” change of scenery move. And it probably doesn’t change anything about the 2009 situation.
My real fear though is, what hideous move will Omar do next? ANd I really, Truly, do not think the FO has the faintest idea of a plan or long term vision. And giving those chickens without heads the launch codes could doom this franchise for a long, long time.
I am really starting to worry that if Omar keeps control, the 2010 team will roll out of ST uncompetitive, but with nothing left in the frm worth waiting for.
Omar, thanks to you and john ricco we pick up a guy the braves would have likely released soon, since Frenchy would have balked at being sent down. You saved the braves from a pr hit Thankfully you didn’t include 2 or 3 mid level prospects in the deal. 1 for 1 straight up. (wtf is this really u omar?) good luck church must be nice going to a team that’s in the playoff hunt. Play the kids.
Dump jerry omar the front office and sell the team wilpons. You can keep your likely NY Penn league champ team.
This is a catastrophe. Not for the trade itself, but for what it says about our team. As others have said, it’s not like the Mets were going to win a championship with Church, but he was at least a major-league-caliber baseball player. Francoeur is basically a glorified Wily Mo Pena at best, and he’ll be trotted out every day to save face for the front office.
But more importantly, the move indicates that Omar has learned nothing, and has no idea how to make this team competitive. Francoeur’s disdain for the concept of plate discipline is now symbolic of the arrogant incompetence of the entire organization.
Can you tell I’m disgusted with this team right now? I’m starting to wonder if the Mets really have deliberately changed David Wright’s approach to try to reduce his power in some ultra-misguided attempt to play to Citi Field’s dimensions. If that’s so, the entire coaching staff needs to be fired immediately.
I know what the stats say. The 3 worst hitting RF in the NL are Giles , Francouer and Church. The deal is really not worth getting worked up about. It was drek for drek.
But forgetting the stats for a moment and look at what was going on the field.
Church’s body language was awful. He looked completely lost. The only way that may have changed was getting rid of Manuel since that was not going to happen they got rid of him.
Also Church has possibly cost the Mets 2 wins with his dropped fly ball and missing third base. If the Mets could have sent him to the minors or benched him it would have happened.
It is possible that Church could put it all together with the Braves it is also possible he could end up like Corey Koskie. ( concussion victim out of baseball ).
In the end most likely Francoeur will be a bust and non tendered at the end of the year,
but it was worth the gamble to make this move.