Teams at non-waiver trading deadline fell into two categories: those looking to improve in 2009, and those looking to acquire prospects to piece together a roster for 2011 and beyond. So, in order to play the trade game, a team needed to know first and foremost whether its goal included competing for a playoff spot this year or not.
The Mets made no moves. That’s right, the team couldn’t decide whether they were a playoff candidate in 2009 or not. They’re not. Really. They should have been selling any veteran like Livan Hernandez, Gary Sheffield or even Tim Redding who another team had any interest in. However, by standing pat, the Mets actually put themselves at a significant competitive disadvantage by not taking advantage of an unsually fluid and active market place. In particular, the Mets should be terrified of a Phillies team that in 2010 will boast a rotation headlined by Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. Even the clueless Nationals, while failing to move Adam Dunn, picked up live bodies from Florida (for Nick Johnson) and Colorado (for Joe Beimel). The Mets only move for 2010 has been adding Jeff Francoeur.
The Mets should take a long, hard look at the Nick Johnson-Aaron Thompson swap. Thompson is a AA right-hander with middling numbers and stuff to match. By the trade deadline, adding win-now players weren’t going to help the team make up enough ground in either the wild card or division race. Could the Mets have made the Nationals a better offer months ago?
However, the Mets have been hurting for offense for months now and their 2009 season comes down to a series of missed assessments. Adding a player like Johnson in May, or even early June might have made a big difference. Did Washington’s price come down? Probably. Still, by failing to act early to shore up their lineup, the Mets playoff odds had slipped to the point by the end of July where no single acquisition justified the price. Were the Mets honest enough in their initial evaluation of the severity of their players’ injuries and the healthy players’ skill sets? I’d lean towards a clear no.
Last Friday, Omar Minaya explained in part why the Mets didn’t make a move. Reasonably, he cited the fact that the Mets were 6+ games out of a playoff spot for not adding a win-now talent. However, it doesn’t justify the Mets inactivity earlier this season, nor does it explain why the Mets might have sought to unload veterans like Sheffield or Hernandez for live bodies who might help in future years. (Of course, Sheffield was on the DL at deadline time, which surely hurt his value.) Then, as quoted by Matt Cerrone, Minaya said:
Unless it is someone we were going to hold on to beyond one year, we’re gonna hold on to as many prospects as we can.
This makes very little sense. Holding on to prospects is not a worthwhile goal on its own. Prospects are only valuable to the degree that they help the MLB team either by developing into MLB players themselves or as a piece of a trade for an actual MLB contributor. Teams can seek to maximize 1. profit or 2. wins and yes, they’re related. Sometimes, trading prospects actually leads to a significant increase in a team’s talent base. What Mets fan or front office employee wouldn’t do the Santana deal again, and again and again?
A number of readers have asked about what an equivalent package of Mets prospects to what the Phillies paid for Lee and the Red Sox paid for Martinez. I will write that up in the coming days. Are there any other trades that you are particularly interested in seeing a Mets equivalency?
The question isn’t really what prospects are comparable, but what deals did Omar actually turn down… that is what I really want to know to pass judgement. Omar even said something along the lines of ‘the cost probably would have been to high’ which indicates to me that he didn’t actually check on it, just assumed his prized prospects would be asked for. Omar is like the guy at the poker table to gets 75% of his stack blinded off before he makes a move. Bet the prospects one way or the other…
Holliday would have been a great guy to get back in June or July, so maybe him.
Reportedly, the Padres may make Adrian Gonzalez available. This is an example of the type of player worth trading prospects for. And he meets Omar’s definition of someone who’s not a 2-month rental.
Toby, by mentioning 2011 and the Phillies having Lee and Hamels next year are you suggesting the Mets give up on 2010 and rebuild for 2011?
The way the Mets contracts are structured it makes sense for them to think of ’11-’12 winter as a time to rebuild/retool significantly. I think all they can do is rely on the same guys for 2010 with some mild tinkering. It is really just a chance to give the farm system a little help while giving away some dead weight that Omar missed out on, imo.
Nope. I wasn’t suggesting punting 2010 at all. After all, if Beltran is healthy, he Reyes, Wright, Johan, Frankie are still a championship caliber core. The key will be finding another corner bat at a palatable price.
I’m going to have to defend the Mets a little bit on this one–
I don’t think the Mets really missed an opportunity to sell. The players we’d sell will probably pass through waivers this month anyway and I don’t think the interest is very high for Shef, Livan or Redding. Like Toby said, Shef was hurt, but I think he’s a guy that will attract interest closer to August 31.
I also don’t think the Mets missed an opportunity to buy a player like Cliff Lee or Halliday. When you aren’t competing, you can’t go out of your way trading for a player at his peak. Lee and Halliday aren’t going to produce any better numbers in 2010 and beyond when we’d actually need them. I prefer we hold onto the young guys which will give us way more flexibility in the off-season and next years trade deadline where a need will likely need to be filled.
For the Mets, I think the problem is not the players, but how we keep screwing around with their injuries. Most of these injuries have been mishandled and its a 15 day injury that becomes a season long injury that agitates me most. Whose idea was it to let Reyes play at 80% early in the season. How the hell is that going to pay dividends over a 162 game season? This department is where the Mets need to reevaluate so they don’t keep making the same mistakes. I thought they learned their lesson after mistreating Ryan Church last season, but they didn’t and I’m afraid they will continue to make the same mistakes.
this is a non issue. the mets had no tradeable assets. except feliciano, who they can use next year.
this is much ado about nothing.
omar didn’t make any stupid buy now moves. what else is there to complain about?
sheffield = injured
felly = useful for next year
we’re going to get something for livan? or redding?
i mean, trading for nick johnson, he of the .800 OPS and awful defense at 1st. how is that worth the cost to the mets, and was he guaranteed to markedly outproduce murphy to the extent that it would’ve been worth said cost, as well as murphy’s lost development time?
this is a total non issue
Well I’m not so sure the Mets messed up any diagnosis as much as maybe they were optimistic about some of these guys coming back early. While the press has said one thing, the players (Beltran, Putz, Maine for example) seem to be saying the same thing that the Mets were.
I agree with big baby about non-tradeable assets. Those guys are not worth anything.
I’m not sure why anyone is surprised by Omar doing nothing. He’s been saying since Santana’s deal that they could not keep trading away prospects because you need a farm. Yes, the farm system is middle of the road but why is anyone surprised by that given what they have traded away? And I am not talking about talent as much as depth.
Nick Johnson? Please! And if Omar made a trade for him and he got hurt the press would have been all over him.
Victor Martinez? His value is at catcher which he does not seem to be much of anymore. Why trade a Holt or Meija for that? Or for Cliff Lee for that matter?
Ever look at the Phillies age? They are a lot older than people think. Their window is rapidly closing. The Phillies adding Lee does not worry me anymore than before.
Have any team lose its SS, 1B, CF-All star caliber to boot, plus a reliever and starter, and let’s see where they end up.
Rest assured I’m not an Omar defender but the criticism to me gets a bit ridiculous at times.
yep.
absolutely.
perfectly stated.
And yes what do you do with Murphy if they make those trades?
Maybe they are using this to see what Murphy can do?
Wow novel thought-the Mets may actually have a 1B, cheap and under contract, on their roster already-from their farm system no less!
We have to be realistic about next year , we all know that F-Mart will be at LF and with Frenchy at RF that will leave just the 1b hole and i doubt that they will leave Murphy in there , so i think that in any trade he will be included . Unlesss… (My personal opinion is that Murphy looks comfortable and athletic enough to play any infield position but SS , so yes i think he can play 2b ).
Toby
Aaron Thompson is a lefty and a former first round pick.
Baseball still overvalues lefties with middling numbers over the equivalent right handed pitcher.
The Nats took a gamble on unfulfilled promise more than anything else.
I have two issues. The first being the selling of the players. Tim Redding, Livan Hernandez, and Sheff are not producing at a high enough clip where I personally think anyone would take a shot on them even for the most middling of prospects. If all the mets received was a mid-level prospect while having to front cash for the players, how would that possibly be worth a trade. Also, in terms of the selling concept, you can make that santana trade again and again, but the development of prospects to bring them into their system is pretty vital to the growth of an organization. case in point 2008 phillies (howard, utley, rollins, victorino, hamels and others). 2006 had the Cardinals(molina, pujols, wainwright)…even look at the 2008 rays (longoria, crawford, upton, price, shields etc.) these teams built talent from the farm and brought in core veterans to shore up the team. Big trades dont equate championships. I am not content to sacrifice the farm just to have a winning season