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The Mets saved over $3 million dollars by trading Billy Wagner to the Boston Red Sox on Monday, but accomplished little else of value.
Wagner was owed over $2 million dollars in 2009 and the team was going to have to offer him a $1 million buyout to avoid paying him $8 million in 2010. Saving $3 million dollars is no joke, and it can certainly be put to good use this winter when the Mets will need to address questions at C, 1B and the corner OF.
In return for Wagner, according the Boston Herald, the Mets will receive 1B/LF Chris Carter, who will turn 27 in September, and a prospect from the GCL of little significance. Carter, who swings from the left side was hitting a pedestrian .279/.340/.439 with 21 doubles and 14 HR for AAA Pawtucket in the International League. His numbers have declined from his .300/.356/.515 AAA campaign in 2008 with 25 doubles and 24 homers. Carter has always been a patient hitter with some pop.
Carter in AAA this year has hit all 14 of his homers against righties as part of a .283/.336/.478 year. Against lefties, he becomes patient and impotent: .268/.351/.320. His splits in 2008 (.304/.354/.540 vs. RHP and .291/.360/.459 vs. LHP) were less extreme, but show the same pattern.
DH is his natural position; he plays both first and LF terribly. Scouts who sw him play in the California League used to openly mock his indifferent attempts to play defense.
Drafted by the Arizona Diamonbacks in the 17th round in 2007, Carter became Red Sox property in a three-team swap that sent Wily Mo Pena to the Nationals in the summer of 2007.
What’s Carter doing on the Mets now? Good question. Thank you, glad I asked.
Can he help in 2009? Only if he owns a time-traveling machine to go back to May and a magic baseball bat that he can use to use to fortify the Mets players against injury.
Can he help in 2010? As a 28-year old without a position who can’t hit lefties? It seems awfully early to be filling the role of lefty bench bat in August, 2009.
Can he grow up into the first-baseman of the future? Nope, he’s all grown up. A liability in the field, Baseball Prospectus translates his AAA offensive level to a touch below average EQA at .259. Bad defensive first-basemen must hit a lot more than that to be valuable.
Can he platoon with someone, somewhere to hit righties? Sure, but Daniel Murphy, who’s been playing first-base everyday also hits left-handed. The Mets could try playing two inadequate first basemen at the same time, just for comedy’s sake.
Can Carter’s antics afield help make Murphy feel better about his own defensive struggles? Now, there’s an idea.
If the Mets hadn’t traded for Chris Carter, they would 1. owe Billy Wagner $3 million dollars, 2. have the right to offer him salary arbitration. Given Wagner’s stated desire to return to a closer’s role, he would surely have declined the arbitration offer. Given that he will be a Type A free agent, the Mets would have received the signing team’s first round pick (as long as it was #15-30) and a compensation round selection when Wagner came to terms with another team.
Would those two picks be more valuable to the organization moving forward than Chris Carter? Yes, yes and yes. Red Sox fans already think the major benefit of this deal is the extra picks their team could acquire for Wagner this winter.
Would those picks be more valuable than Chris Carter and $3 million dollars? Depends on how much you need that $3 mil. In the Mets case, that money seems to loom very large. The problem is that dollars don’t win championships. Talented players do, and the Mets did not increase their talent base in this transaction.
The Mets, given a desire to shed Wagner’s salary would have been far better off choosing some live arm out of the Boston system, any old lottery ticket would have done, who had a chance at helping in the future, rather than Carter, who will never hit enough to overcome his own defensive ineptitude to be a productive regular on a championship team.
That the news of the trade broke on a day when the Mets ace needing “only” season-ending elbow surgery reminded the Mets faithful that they’re living in Strange Times.
Edit 1:40 PM.
1. Carter and Nick Evans, who crushes lefties, would make for a very cheap 1B platoon in 2010 that just might hit 25 HR. Is that the plan here? That could be a crafty, cost-effective solution. I’m not sure the available free agent options offer anything obviously better, just more expensive. Would the money saved on 1B in this scenario allow the Mets to load up and make a run at Matt Holiday? I can only dream, right?
2. The market for type A relievers last year was awful. Juan Cruz sat around until the end of February before the Royals signed him. Mike Silva at NYBD claims the Mets would not have offered Wagner arbitration anyway. Wagner could probably find a contract, but it wouldn’t be an easy sell.
Strange Times by the Black Keys
wilpon sure is backing up his word about improving buffalo……….
well they just saved another 7 mil because they cannot pick up Putz option now. Considering Putz had basically the same surgery Santana will have, why should we expect Santana to come out any better?
Of all the injury silliness this year, not noticing a UCL tear when you remove bone spurs, (the very bone spurs that likely caused the tear) this has to rank right up near the top. Good luck Johan!
Carter and Nick Evans, your NY Mets 2010 LF platoon…
If the idea is to make Buffalo better well Carter only has one more option year, so he could be out of the organization in 2011 if he doesn’t make the big club.
its not quite as bad as Heath Bell for Ben Johnson, but it has about the same effect…
putz had bone spurs.
santana had bone chops
completely different things.
semi different, but hopefully it works in Johan’s favor…
you don’t know what you’re talking about.
In that sense neither do you, neither of us have seen the medical info.
Unusual pieces of bone in the elbow joint are a prime cause of the ligament damage. Yes they are more dangerous when attached (spur) than loose (chips) but the chips have to come from somewhere.
Actually, by getting rid of Wagner the Mets save the 3 mil twice. The second time being when they don’t have to pay bonus’s to the extra draftees they won’t be getting.
I said the entire Front office has to be fired if they mucked up this Wagner situation…. And Guess what. They did, and They should indeed be fired. It wasn’t that hard. Get top prospects or keep him and get 2 valuable draft picks.
What do the Mets get. A player with an ok bat and no position, and what is said to be a player of no significance.
3 million dollars in terms of the payroll wasted this year on numerous injuries is a drop in the bucket.
Then again in the draft the Mets wouldn’t have selected the best talent available because they wouldn’t be allowed to spend over-slot. So it wouldn’t have mattered much anyways.
Man a fan base can’t get more frustrated, can it?
playing devil’s advocate:
1.) Carter has been incredibly lucky this year in AAA. He has a great LD%, but an incredibly pedestrian BABIP. His luck adjusted slash line is .318/.376/.487, with a .324/.374/530/.904 split vs. righties and a .303/.382/.365/.747 vs. lefties.
Those are pretty impressive numbers, though obviously his age comes into question.
Is it out of the question for him to become Luke Scott?
2.) 3.5 million dollars is a lot of money to save. And Wagner is no sure thing. The Mets would have to spend 3.5 million dollars on the chance that Wagner would have no recurring injury problems, while also pitching so well to make it absolutely certain that a team out there would think it wise to sign 39 year old post-TJ Billy Wagner and sacrifice a first/second round draft pick. Not to mention the risks of Wagner accepting arbitration.
Big Baby you played a terrific Devils advocate.
And while I agree offensively he looks like he has talent and some pop. I also said over on the Metsblog that factors into his age could easily be his lack of defense causing him to be blocked from the majors. With Youkilis at 1st; Bay/Manny, and Drew and this year Baldeli blocking him on the Corner Outfield spots; also Ortiz blocking him from the DH spot. He has no other place to be played.
Now i have never seen him play and maybe he does have potential to really help this team out in 2010. But being a 26 year old prospect chances are he’s not going to.
Personally i think that taking that 3.5 million and holding onto Wagner. Taking the probable 2 picks was worth the risk you put forward above. Those 2 picks would have added much needed top level talent to the Minors. Would they turn out to be stars, good chance no. But it’s about as good a chance of this kid having a late career revival and becoming an All-Star. And you would have a 2-1 chance of that happening with the 2 picks.
But I also know that the 1 pick that they would get from Wagner would probably be shipped off when the Big League team signs a Type A of their own, if that even happens because for a Big Market team 3.5 million in savings sickens me. You wasted that much easily on, Redding, Livan, Garcia, Sullivan, cora, tatis, etc, etc, etc.
I am obviously just one frustrated fan, and when people in the know like Toby are pointing out how flawed this move and this thinking was it really validates my frustration.
I think the big question is whether the Mets could have gotten the draft picks out of the arbitration process. If yes, this is probably a bad deal. If not, it is a great deal.
Let’s consider this: even if Wagner pitches lights out, he is a 38-year-old relief pitcher. Given what we saw with Juan Cruz last year, does a team give up its first-rounder for Wagner? I think it is far more likely that a team with a protected first-rounder, or one who has already signed one Type A guy signs him, and then the Mets get a sandwich pick and a second rounder, which isn’t that impressive.
And that is a top scenario. Consider the other alternatives: Wagner pitches badly in September and hurts his value. Wagner gets injured. Or worst of all: Wagner decides he can’t get $8 million anywhere else, and accepts arbitration, and the Mets can’t afford to sign anyone else of consequence in the off season.
The good thing here, is we can speculate now, but we get to see how the Wagner situation now plays out for the Red Sox. If they get the picks, we can all bad mouth Minaya. And if not, we all get to feel good about this trade.
The sense I get is that Wagner would not accept arbitration because he wants to close that badly. The fact that he might be willing to pitch for the Nats means he wants to close over getting money. And with the protected draft picks the Nats have, it would make sense for them to sign him for 3 or 4 million just to stabilize their pen for a year.
What I want to ask is whether getting Carter is really much more that getting absolutely nothing should Wagner’s health fail, which is highly unlikely with only a month left on a Mets team that would not overwork him.
I don’t know how you feel good about this trade. You can always use draft picks which helps ensure a constant flow of prospects in your system.
But what about the other guy? Didn’t we get 2 players?
Just based on his offensive numbers in the minors, Chris Carter has consistently proven he can hit and hit with power. He is overdue by at least 2 years to get a fair and legitimate shot at proving himself as a big league hitter. In his two brief stints at the major league level, he did a respectable job in only 13 games. He will turn 27 in September and will be 27 until close to the end of the 2010 season. Of course, since his defense is suspect he would naturally be a better fit in the American League but if he can prove himself in the Mets organization and impress the brass at Spring Training next season, he may be able to contribute to the parent club Mets in 2010. What more can be asked of this guy? Give him a chance. It looks like he’s earned it since he’s had continued success at the AAA level for many years. Mets fans are rightfully frustrated with the direction of their team and they should be but I don’t think this was a such a bad move to acquire Carter. Only time will tell. Until then, try to be a little more optimistic if that is possible. The Mets will bounce back, I assure you. Maybe just not as quickly as some of the fans would prefer. There is some really good talent in the Mets farm system. Patience is a virtue, to quote the old cliche.
I predict Carter will hit with power but won’t hit for much average. After a couple of seasons with the Mets he will be shopped and shipped to the American League. As a Reds fan, this brings back shades of Russell Branyan, a below average fielder who hit 210 HR in the minors and now at the age of 33 he is having a career year for the Seattle Mariners with 31 HRs.