At Baseball Prospectus, Dan Maikel constructed a model to analyze whether teams should play promising rookies (he used Cameron Maybin and Matt Wieters) over established and mediocre veterans.  Not surprisingly, the model, an expected value framework, favored playing the youngsters, who have the chance to be special, over the proven pedestrian.

In part 2, Maikel asked how long teams should stay with struggling rookies.  In this case, the answer depends obviously on 1. the initial projection for the young player, 2. how well or poorly he’s played, and the level of player he’s replacing.  Given that Mets fans were disappointed in Fernando Martinez’s .176/.242/.275 line in 91 AB this summer, it’s worth revisited Maikel’s conclusion:

These limitations notwithstanding, the results suggest that teams not hastily give up on a promising rookie who gets off to a slow start, especially if the organization and its scouts are confident in his eventual success. ….  a knee-jerk reaction to a small sample hurts a team by reducing its expectation over the course of the season. Generally speaking, teams faced with an under-performing rookie should be patient unless they have very good reason to believe that he will continue to struggle.

Oh, the Mets would never overreact to a small sample size, right?

Oh, check that.  At Fangraphs, Carson Cistulli revisits the Mets “misunderestimating” Heath Bell in small sample sizes in 2004-06 and misreading his high BABIP numbers.

Next post will be positive.  I hope.

Most Mondays in this space, I’m going to write something about football. Why?  Because I want to.  Sunday was a big early-season day for both NY, or if you prefer, New Jersey teams, as both the Jets and Giants won to go to 2-0.  Both teams are now alone in first in their divisions.  You could make a strong case that the Jets 16-7 victory at home over New England was the bigger win because it could be seen as a shift of power in the AFC East, while the Giants win in Dallas was less surprising.

However, this morning’s topic will be the huge games Sunday night from Steve Smith and Mario Manningham in the Giants’ 33-31 win over the Cowboys in the debut of the new Dallas Cowbows Shrine to Themselves and the numbers 10 of 13.

Lets take a look at the numbers first.  Overall, Eli Manning was 25-38 for 330 yards and two touchdowns.  Of those 38 passes, Manning threw 26 times to  Smith and Manningham, 13 times each.

Does a this feel familiar?  The 10 of 13 numbers sure do.  Just a little over one year ago, Manning targeted Plaxico Burress 13 times and completed 10 of those passes in the team’s season-opening 16-7 win over the Redskins.  It was a very different game from the see-saw last second win in Dallas; the Giants were in control throughout, and the teams didn’t score in the second half, but the comparison between Big Blue’s passing attack in 2008 and 2009 is illuminating.

- Manning was much, much better on September 20, 2009, than he was on September 4, 2008, not just by overall yardage, but by yards/attempt as well.

- SS and MM accounted for 86% of Manning’s passing yardage and 68% of his targets in Week 2, while Burress accounted for 37% of Manning’s targets a year earlier, but 66% of his production.  Manning targeted Smith and Manningham individually 34% of the time, very close to as often as he looked for Burress a year ago.

- Burress’ Week One last year is almost exactly a dead ringer for Steve Smith’s Week Two this year.  However, Smith had the second-best day by a Giant receiver this time out, while Burress was the majority of the team’s whole passing offense early in 2008.

- What about the others?  In 2008, I chalked up Manning’s 9-22 to “others” as both evidence of 1. his underlying inaccuracy and 2. the others lack of playmaking ability to create space and get open.  The 2008 others were Sinorice Moss, Derick Ward, Smith, Amani Toomer and Brandon Jacobs.  The 2009 others were Kevin Boss, Domenik Hixon, Derek Hagan and Ahmad Bradshaw.

- In 2009, Manning was 0-1 throwing the ball to Jacobs and just 1-4 in the 2008 game.  The less the offense throws to Jacobs, the better?

Moving Forward

- Simply, two is better than one.  At this point in the season, the Giants in 2009 are better for having two legitimate threats on the outside than they were in 2008, when Burress was Manning’s only trusted receiver.

- Did the Giants get a Draft Day steal in Manningham?  He had a huge 2007 as a Michigan Wolverine, and looked like a first-round pick, but slipped to the Giants with the final pick of the third round at #95 on the heels of a slow 40-yard dash time (4.59) at the combine, admitting that he smoked weed, and concerns about his intelligence, magnified by a terrible Wonderlic test score.

- Smith is finally looking like the receiver the Giants thought they were getting when they drafted him out of U$C in 2007.  With 16 receptions thus far, he’s already almost 30% of the way to equaling last year’s production and his one touchdown matches his 2008 total.  Clearly, Smith has benefited from his time with Eli and from the absence of Burress.

- Fantasy Implications: Smith, Manningham and Manning’s stock should be up after their week two showings, especially Manningham who was available on the waiver wire entering Sunday’s play in most leagues.  In my first draft in August, I picked Smith in the tenth round and wasted a pick on Sinorice Moss in the 13th on the theory that Eli would have to throw to someone.  I now have a waiver claim in on Manningham in both of the leagues I play in.

SSA: LHP Mark Cohoon

Born: 9/15/87

Where he came from: Drafted 12 rd 2008 out of North Central Texas JC

What he is: A 6’2”, 195 lb lefthander with below average stuff who throws strikes.

When he grows up: An organizational arm

Other Good Candidates:

Brandon Moore

Moore has the slight edge in ERA, K-rate, K/BB ratio, WHIP, opponents’ batting average and WHIP.  The only thing Cohoon does better is induce ground balls.  However, Moore did something historic in 2009, throwing the first Cyclones no-hitter and the only one in the Mets system.  Shouldn’t that count for something given that his number were very similar if slightly better than Cohoon’s?

A: LHP Robert Carson

Born: 1/23/89

What he is: A lefthanded pitcher with a fastball in the low 90s and a slider in the mid 80s, both potential plus offerings from the left side.

Where he came from: Drafted in the 14^th Rd in ’07 (Hattiesburg, MS HS)

When he grows up: A big leaguer.  Carson’s progress with a changeup, his third pitch in 2009, will determine whether he’ll be a reliever or a starter.

Other Good Candidates: Niether teenaged infielder – SS Wilmer Flores (.264/.305/.332) or 3B Jefry Marte (.233/.279/.338)– hit enough to merit an award.

However, one could easily make the argument that 19-year old Kyle Allen had a better season than Carson.  Carson had Allen beat on ERA, 3.21 to Allen’s 3.45, but add unearned runs back into the equation and Carson’s RA jumps to 4.65 while Allen’s moves to just 4.09.  Allen had more strikeouts  (111 to 90), a better K/BB ratio (2.17 to 2.0) and more groundballs by go/ao (2.18 to 1.68).

A+: CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis

Born: 8/7/87

What he is: Just about the hottest Mets prospect at the end of the 2009 season after an August in which he hit .345/.406/.647 for St. Lucie.  He finished by leading the FSL in doubles and OPS, and was third in HR.  He learned to pull the ball as the season progressed.

Where he came from: Drafted 3^rd Rd 2008 (Azusa Pacific)

When he grows up: Nieuwenhuis has the speed and instincts for centerfield. After his breakout August, it looks more likely he’ll be a big leaguer.  Will the strikeouts keep his average down at the upper levels to the point where he’s a fourth OF?  Or can he maintain his power stroke to become an MLB regular?

Other Good Candidates: None.

C Josh Thole

Born: 10/28/86

What he is: Busy auditioning for a share of the Mets 2010 catcher’s job with his contact oriented approach at the plate.  Striking out less than he walked in AA is a very, very impressive accomplishment.

Where he came from: Drafted in the 13^th round of the 2005 draft out of Breese Mater Dei HS (IL)

When he grows up: In a perfect world, Thole’s defense will continue to improve and he will be a valuable piece of the Mets lineup out of the #2 or #7 spots.

Other Good Candidates: SS Ruben Tejada had a really nice year at age 19, but at .289/.351/.381, Thole had him beat out on the numbers.  Sub .810 OPSes from Lucas Duda (.808) and Shawn Bowman (.804) aren’t that impressive given the players’ ages and level.

2009: .311/.348/.382, 30 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 25 BB, 44 K, 13/18 SB in 495 AB over 130 G

What he is: A AAA outfielder without the secondary skills (speed or power) to profile in an MLB corner job or centerfield.

Where he came from: Signed as a MiLB FA 2/1/07.  Originally drafted by the Dodgers in the 36^th round in 1997

When he grows up: Feliciano, who turned 30 in June, is all grown up.

Other Good Candidates: None.