Has the Mets scouting and development been doing its job?  Not if you ask most Mets fans, and more importantly, not according to the numbers produced by the always insightful Jeff Sackman of the Hardball Times. 

Sackman broke down the dollar value of the production every MLB team received from their 1. draft picks, 2. international free agents, 3. trades, 4. waiver wire pickups and 5. free agency. 
According to Sackman’s research, the 2009 Mets reaped only a $ 12.9 value from their own draftees, the second worst mark in all of baseball.  Only the Mariners ($5.4M) were worse.  By contrast, the Phillies derived $54.8 in surplas value from their work in the draft. 

In 2009, according to Sackman, the Mets had no international signee contribute any value.  The zero value is tied for last in MLB.  Given the amount of time it takes to develop international signees, this is at least partly a legacy of Mets administrations prior to Omar Minaya.

The Mets have not efficiently allocated their free agency money either, coming in at $-12.1 in 2009, the worst mark in all of baseball. The truly amazing (not Amazin’) thing about that number is that it exludes the $12 million the Mets wasted on Oliver Perez and his -0.8 WAR in 2009 because Sackman limited his study to players who contributed 1 WAR or more, that is, who were actually good. 

Also, since Sackman only examined players who produced 1 WAR or better that excludes Jose Reyes (0.7) in 2009 as well. 

It’s a pretty damning indictment of the Mets player acquisition processes.  

Earlier this week, Adam Rubin posted the rosters for the two Mets Instructional League league teams which now play in the Dominican Republic.  Essentially, Team 1, which has 44 players, is composed of guys from Savannah and down, top draft picks, or those who might well see A-ball next year, while Team 2 is mostly Dominican teenagers.

Team 1 has lots and lots of interesting pitching talent.
Kyle Allen, Yohan Almonte, Eric Beaulac, Robert Carson, Jeurys Familia all had success this past season, and will find their place in any ranking of the Mets top pitching prospects.  The roster also features the Mets three most interesting amateur mound additions from this past year: LHP Juan Urbina, LHP Steven Matz and LHP Zach Dotson.

Team 1 is carrying six (!) catchers ranging in age from 23-year old Dock Doyle to 18-year olds Jeffrey Glenn, Nelfi Zapata and Camden Maron.
On the infield, Team 1 looks like 2010′s St. Lucie and Savannah infields.  The hotcorner is particularly well stocked with 3B Jefry Marte joined by 3B Zach Lutz, who’s probably the most accomplished hitter on the team, Richard Lucas and Aderlin Rodriguez.  It says something about Lutz that even after graduating St. Lucie for AA for a week at the end of the season, he chose to go work out in the DR for two months in the fall rather than work out at home.  Or maybe the choice between weather in Pennsylvania and the DR this time of year actually makes that a rather easy choice.  He’s also listed as a 3B/1B.  A move to 1B in 2010 would damage his prospect status.
2B Alonzo Harris is the only listed second-baseman, but the team is carrying four SS including Wilmer Flores.

The OF has everyone who should be there: the young athletes, led by Darrell Ceciliani, Julio Concepcion (the Sterling winner in the GCL this year, and an impressive 6’4″ 200lber), Chase Greene, RJ Harris, Cesar Puello and Javier Rodriguez.

It appears as though the move from St. Lucie to the DR has not harmed attendance at all.  The prospects who should be getting their work in will do so.  And just to pre-empt the next question, no, do not expect to see stats from instructional league games at all.  Really, they’re closer to scrimmages than full-fledged competitive games anyway.

While the Yankees play a game that matters a little bit tonight in the Bronx, Mets fans have to look forward into a more distant future.  Jim Callis wrote the Mets draft report card for Baseball America yesterday, and here’s his summation of the Mets work in the 2009 draft:

Though they’re wealthier than most clubs, the Mets don’t press their financial advantage in the draft. They went over slot to sign Matz ($895,000) and Dotson, but otherwise were conservative and didn’t add much depth to a thin farm system.

I certainly can’t argue with that assessment.

BA surprised me by showing a bunch of love for 19-year old OF Chase Greene, who the Mets picked in the 16th round out of West Boca Raton (FL) HS.  The Mets signed Greene for $125K, buying him out of a committment to the University of South Florida.  BA lists Greene as the Mets draft class’s BEST ATHLETE and he shared the title of FASTEST RUNNER with ZeErika Hall (29).  Based on conversations with Mets people, I thought fourth-rounder Darrell Ceciliani would be a candidate for both awards.

Callis on Greene:

In addition to his speed, Greene has strong hands and bat speed that bode well for future power once he fills out.

After a 2-for-15 start to his professional career this summer in the GCL, Greene hit .333/.385/.458 with six doubles in his final 15 games.  A shortstop in HS, the Mets wasted no time moving him to the outfield, as he played just one game at second in the GCL, while splitting the rest of his time evenly between the three OF positions.

PG Crosschecker.com also praised Greene’s speed this spring:

Though his arm is well below-average, he has a chance for plus range out there [in CF]. Though I didn’t get a good running time in this game, he would grade out as a 65 runner on the 20-80 scale.

The Mets list Greene at 5’11″, while PG has him shorter:

The 5-9, 160 righthanded hitting Greene will have to figure out a pesky offensive game to take advantage of his speed; he doesn’t project as a big power guy or middle order hitter. The bat-speed and raw power isn’t quite there for that.

That the $125,000 the Mets paid Greene to sign was the sixth largest bonus of their draft class, provides some measure of the value the Mets placed the young outfielder.  He’s obviously a long way away, but the Mets are quite thin in high-upside athletes, especially in the OF.

The Mets did attempt to buttress their position player depth in the ’09 draft.  As Callis points out, the Mets signed just three pitchers from the first 20 rounds after failing to sign RHPs Damien Magnifico (5), David Buchanan (6) and Casey Schmidt (15).

Jenrry Mejia’s third AFL start was his longest: 3 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K.  Despite being charged with his second loss, he threw 35 of his 56 pitches for strikes.  There was pitch-fx for this game and to me, it shows that Mejia went back to the basics: he threw fastballs and changeups nearly exclusively with just one curveball in the third inning.  He continues to generate groundballs; four of his six non-strikeout outs came on the ground.  The take-away message: he’s fine.

After one-hit games on Thursday and Saturday, SS Ruben Tejada was 2-3 with a walk, his second, on Monday and is now hitting .344/.417/.438 through 32 AB.  That’s pretty much all batting average, but if nothing else, he’s proving (again) that he can make lots of contact.

1B Ike Davis also had single hits on Thursday, Saturday and Monday, but Thursday’s hit was a double, and Saturday’s was a solo HR, his second longball of the season.  He’s hit safely in eight of his nine games for a .378/.400/.703 a line.  Eight of his 14 hits have gone for extra bases.

RHP Scott Moviel worked around two hits to throw a scoreless inning Friday.  He hasn’t allowed a run yet, but has walked three and fanned two in his five innings.  LHP Eric Niesen has allowed a run, 10 in 3.2 innings to be exact, after two more on Saturday in just .2 IP.

Last week, we discussed the fact that the Mets had met with Japanese LHP Yusei Kikuchi and Cuban LHP Aroldis Chapman.  Both young pitchers were coveted for their ability to throw in the mid-upper 90s.  Now, it appears that neither will be a Met in the foreseeable future.

As quoted by NPBtracker, Kikuchi will begin his professional career in Japan, although he made clear that he hopes to compete in MLB someday, “I want to be given the chance to play in Japan…for now I’m closing the door to the Majors, and after becoming a top pitcher in Japan I want to take on the world.”

Meanwhile, two Mets beat writers believe that the price for Chapman will be too rich for the Mets.  On Friday, David Lennon of Newsday tweeted,

If the price for Aroldis Chapman gets to $40-$60 M, as some have speculated, forget the #Mets. They have no desire to get into that range.

The New York Post’s Bart Hubbach, who has been very skeptical of the Mets ability to spend heavily this winter, tweeted on Sunday,

The Mets won’t be pursuing Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman after being told he wants up to $60 million to sign.

Meanwhile, according to Jon Heyman, the Yankees, in an effort to impress Chapman, invited him to the Stadium for Sunday night’s ALCS game 6 with the Angels.  Heyman does not indicate that the Mets are out of the bidding for Chapman despite describing the Yankees and Red Sox as “gearing up for a battle.”  Heyman points out that the Mets bid $39 million on Daisuke Matsuzaka’s posting fee, although the Sox beat them out with their $51 million bid.

Will Chapman really command $60 million? That’s a lot of pretty pennies, especially given Cuban pitchers’ failure to live up to their hype.  Alay Soler anyone?

Feeling weekendy?

This will help.  A-Trak

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the Yeah Yeah Yeahs “Heads Will Roll.”   Yes.

Or maybe you like your Karen O a little mellower, in which case, you’ll like the soundtrack to Where the Wild Things Are done by Karen O and the Kids. I should admit, that when I was a kid, I really didn’t like WtWTA, but maybe now I’m old enough.

I’m going to do something that I should have done a week ago, and break out interesting prospects who are playing in winter ball leagues other than the Arizona Fall League.  Remember that these winter ball rosters are always in flux, so this will change fairly regularly.

Hitters
Josh Thole – Leones del Caracas – VWL – .410/.511/.538, 2 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 2 K – 37 AB
Thole’s leading the VWL, which is hitting a collective .284/.359/.418, in OBP.  Anyone surprised?

Chris Carter – Tigres de Aragua – VWL – .353/.450/.559, 2 2B, 3B, HR – 34 AB
The MLB ready return from the Red Sox for Billy Wagner, Carter is off to a strong start in Venezuela, as he prepares for what might be a fierce Spring Training competition at firstbase.  Given Ike Davis’ progress late in the ’09 regular season and early in the AFL, I don’t see the Mets bringing in an expensive, long-term option at 1B, so Carter will have to be impressive and fast to earn his playing time.

Jordany Valdespin – Tigres de Licey – DWL .444/.444/.778 – 9 AB.
Valdespin is 4-for-9 with a HR in the DWL, which last year played at a level perhaps a touch below AA.

Jose Coronado – Caribes de Anzoategui – VWL – .273/.385/.455 – 11 AB

Francisco Pena – Aguilas Cibaenas – DWL – 0-for-2, BB

Pitchers
LHP Adam Bostick – Tiburones de La Guaira – VWL – 1-2, 14.54 ERA, 4.1 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 5 BB, 7 K
After that kind of work in seven relief appearances they might well be ready to send Bostick to the Tiburones rather than run him back out to the mound.  Bostick is joined on the Tiburones by Junior Guerra and Chris Mason.

LHP Angel Calero – Navegantes del Magallanes – VWL – 5 G, 0 GS, 1-0, 4.15 ERA, 4.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

RHP Tobi Stoner – Leones del Escogido – DWL – 1-0, 1.80 ERA, 1 GS, 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K
I fully expect Stoner to dominate the DWL, but that won’t mean much for his ability to help the Mets at the big league level.

RHP Jose Sanchez - Navegantes del Magallanes – VWL – 3 GS, 0-0, 0.00, 12.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 9 K
Well, that’s nice, isn’t it?