Aside from Mejia, it was a busy day Wednesday for the Mets in their Surprise Rafters 6-4 win.

SS Ruben Tejada: 2-5, 2 R, RBI
1B Ike Davis: 1-3, 2 RBI
DH Reese Havens: 0-3, BB, 3 K
- Keith Law was particularly unimpressed with Havens, tweeting during the game, “You could put the ball on a tee for Reese Havens today and he’d swing and miss.”
LF Lucas Duda: 0-0, was pinch-hit for in his first AB

RHP Scott Moviel: W, 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 0 K.
-Moviel was 89-90, and touched 93 once.  He showed a full four-pitch mix: slider, curve and a changeup.
LHP Eric Niesen: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K.
-Niesen was 92-93 from the left side with a slider at 79-80.

RHP Jenrry Mejia, the top pitching prospect in the Mets organization, made his Arizona Fall League debut on Wednesday.  He illustrated very clearly in 39 pitches over the span of an inning plus, why he’s so well regarded as a prospect, and just how far he is from reaching his lofty ceiling.
The box score numbers from his Surprise Rafters 6-4 win over the Peoria Javelinas, illustrate his primary problem Wednesday: 1 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 1 K.  Forget command, that is locating within the strike zone, Mejia was having trouble throwing strikes at all.

Pitch fx is kinder to Mejia than the box score.  Mejia’s 22 fastballs averaged 95.5 mph, and he touched 98 repeatedly.  That’s pretty special.  His 13 changeups were all between 86 and 89 mph, with most at 87 or 88.  He threw four curveballs, two at 78 and one each at 77 and 79, the latter of which produced his only strikeout, on a called third strike to end the first inning.

The only hit Mejia gave up, a triple to leftfield, came on a changeup, which looks to be about thigh-high, middle in.

The twittering classes were all abuzz.  And yes, I get many baseball goodies from Twitter these days.  You can follow me at (@tobyhyde).
ESPN’s Keith Law (@keithlaw) offered the following:
-More Jenrry: changeup 84-87 with + fade/tail and he finished the inning by striking out Lucroy on a curveball.
-Mejia out on pitch count. Command was poor but velo, CH were good. I’ll blog more about him later this week.

Baseball America’s Ben Badler (@benbadler), responding to a question from NY Baseball Digest’s Joe DeMayo about how Mejia projects:
-”@jdemayoNYBD Upside is potential outstanding starter, but command, secondary need work. If not, and w/ his mechanics, possible relief ace”

And Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein (@kingclip) responded to our own Nick M’s question:
-Both. RT @nmigliore: @kingclip should i be happy he threw so hard or be worried about his subpar control?

Recommended reading:
At the Daily News, Adam Rubin wrote a glowing piece on Mejia. The piece includes a nice story about his audition with the Mets and the apparently brief negotiations that made him a Met.

Ike Davis broke a 1-1 tie with a third-inning grandslam off Tigers LHP Andrew Oliver.  Oliver, a second rounder, signed for $1.45 million, roughly twice slot, but was hit hard in his professional debut.  Davis’s slam came on a 92 mph fastball on a 3-1 count in which Oliver missed with a slider for ball one and then threw Davis four straight heaters.  Davis had to have been sitting dead red.  All told, Davis finished 4-6 with with doubles, his slam, and six RBI in the Surprise Rafters 17-4 pummeling of the Peoria Javelinas.

LF Lucas Duda was 2-5 with a double, a walk and two RBI while SS Ruben Tejada was 2-5 with a double, a stolen base, and a pair of strikeouts.

As if those performances weren’t exciting enough, the AFL now features full pitch fx for some games, including those in Surprise.  This is awesome on its own merits for evaluating AFLers.  Also, since the AFL is often a lab where MLB experiments withideas for the upcoming MiLB season, does this mean that pitch fx is coming to the minors?

Adam Rubin reports that “Virtually the entire Mets front office was watching as the AFL got under way [Tuesday]. GM Omar Minaya, assistant GM John Ricco, top deputies Sandy Johnson and Bryan Lambe, Adam Fisher and virtually every professional scout from the organization is here in Peoria, Ariz.”  So, Ike picked a good time to put on a show.

The Mets prospects on the Surprise Rafters begin their Arizona Fall League season today at 12:35 MT.  My plan is to catch nearly a week of AFL games from 11/9-11/13, the second-to-last week of the season.

Once again, the participating Mets:
RHP Jenrry Mejia
Why He’s Going: The Mets want to see their best pitching prospect pick up some more game time against the best MiLB hitters after he missed a month with a blister problem at AA.
A Question: Can he learn to throw his potentially nasty curveball for strikes?

RHP Scott Moviel
Why He’s Going: Like Mejia, Moviel missed an awful lot of time – nearly the entire first half of the season – recovering from injury.  His numbers at St. Lucie, 3.92 ERA, 64.1 IP, 61 H, 1 HR, 24 BB, 46 K, were very pedestrian.
A Question: Now 21, will Moviel ever turn his projection and decent feel into a plus pitch?
LHP Eric Niesen
Why He’s Going: His last seven starts for AA Binghamton: 3-1, 2.40 ERA, 41.1 IP, 29 H, 13 R, 11 ER, 1 HR, 15 BB, 45 K.  K/9=9.9, K/BB=3
A Thought: This should be good preparation for an Opening Day assignment to Buffalo.

RHP Josh Stinson
Why He’s Going: 35 K in 36.1 IP out of the St. Lucie bullpen after 49 in 42.1 IP for Savannah.  That, and the Mets decided not to send Brad Holt to keep Holt’s IP down.
A Thought: the AFL will tell us a lot about whether Stinson’s for real or not.

2B Reese Havens
Why He’s Going: He really needs the game action after playing in just 120 games since he was drafted last June.  As a member of the taxi squad, he’ll get to play 2x a week.
A Thought: After hitting .247/.361/.422 for St. Lucie, the exposure to more upper-level pitching will be a nice preparation for a 2010 assignment to Binghamton.

1B Ike Davis
Why He’s Going: He’s the best hitting prospect in the upper minors not named Fernando Martinez.  This is the beginning of prospect finishing school for Davis.  By the way, Davis hit 20 HR this year.  Martinez’s career high is 9.
A Question: How much did Davis’ big 2009, and now how much will his upcoming AFL performance factor into the Mets plans for 1B in 2010?

SS Ruben Tejada
Why He’s Going: He’s the best upper-level up-the-middle prospect in the system.
A Question: Tejada got better as the year went on at AA.  Can he continue to improve in the AFL?

LF Lucas Duda
Why He’s Going: The Mets used their A-ball exemptions on Stinson, Havens and Moviel.  Duda had 39 XBH for Binghamton at age 23.
A Question: Will Duda ever figure out how to leverage is size and strength and his natural raw power into more game power?  And will he figure out lefties after hitting .192/.283/.225 against them in AA?

I apologize for the slow weekend around here. Duty forced to travel to New Orleans for one of my best friend’s bachelor parties. It was pretty damn awesome.  Every day spent in New Orleans or Las Vegas must take at least a year off my life expectancy. 
 
Anyway, Friday, Baseball America released their list of Eastern League Top 20 prospects.  Only 1B Ike Davis made the list. 

John Manuel, one of BA’s best, handled the writeups.  He had this to say about Ike Davis, who he ranked at #13:

….Whereas fellow Mets ’08 draftee Brad Holt stumbled in Binghamton, Davis thrived. He led the B-Mets with 13 homers in just 55 games before joining Team USA for the World Cup.

Davis has true plus power from the left side. He sells out to reach it at times, spinning off balls in an attempt to jerk the ball out of the park, and it costs him plate coverage. Lefthanders took advantage of that tendency, and he struck out 25 times in 71 at-bats against them (though he did his .262/.342/.465).

Davis isn’t afraid to go deep in counts and showed the ability to make adjustments. He has the bat speed to turn on good fastballs inside.

A potential plus defender at first base, Davis has good hands but needs a bit more focus with the glove. He has above-average arm strength—he pitched some at Arizona State—and got a brief trial in the outfield with Binghamton.

Davis’ L/R splits by OPS by level in 2009:

.             .vs LHP            .vs RHP

FSL         .509                 .992

EL           .807                 1.027

The point I’m trying to make is that he showed some progress against the southpaws over the course of the 2009 season.

Manuel also took chat questions about Josh Thole, RHP Brad Holt and SS Ruben Tejada. 

Michael (NY, NY): In hope of any good news, Mets fans are looking to the good season of Josh Thole. Was it his limited upside that left him off the list or is defense still too shaky at catcher to make a positive impression?

John Manuel: He’s just not a great profile. He’s just fringy defensively, fringy offensively because of the lack of power. … Thole is the all OBP, no power catcher. Scouts don’t seem to think that will work long-term, but scouts have been wrong before. The Mets sent Thole up to the majors as much to learn from Brian Schneider on the subtleties of catching and handling a pitching staff as they did any other reason. If we went 30 deep, Thole would have made it, but when I wrote up his report, he just sounded like less of a prospect than the other 25 or so that I wrote.

Zach (Wilton, CT): What do you make of Brad Holt's struggles in Binghamton?

John Manuel: First full pro season, a little fatigue, and a little lesson in how to use his breaking ball. He can spin the breaking ball; one scout in particular who has read what we’ve written about Holt says the problem with his breaking ball isn’t that he doesn’t have one, it’s that he doesn’t command one. He didn’t throw it often in college because he didn’t have to; now, in Double-A, when he needed it, he couldn’t shorten it up and throw it for strikes to keep people honest on his fastball. He was in a lot of 2-0 and 3-1 counts and guys were sitting on his heat. That sounded eerily like Phil Humber, and that’s not a good sign. I like Holt so I hope he makes better adjustments next season.

By the way, Philip Humber is now a minor league free agent – this is not a flattering comparison.  Humber, who at the time he was drafted had a plus fastball, had a below average heater by the time he reached AAA. 

Zach (Wilton, CT): What is your take on Ruben Tejada?

John Manuel: Definite 21-30 guy, would have made the top 30 if he just had one plus tool. He had a nice season, though, and I’m impressed with how well he grinds through a year. He had a poor April and then was solid the rest of the season. But again, he’s maybe a 55 runner according to the scouts I talked to, and the guys who liked him considered him fringy offensively with below-average power. The consensus was that he’s more of a utility guy as a result.

No question he has below average power.  He also hit .289/.351/.381 at age 19. 

Scott G. asks:
Couple of questions I have about Brahiam Maldanado.
He did hit 17 HRS and have 73 RBI’s at St Lucie
1) Is  he going to be a minor league  free agent  or do the Mets still have control over him.

2)  I realize he will never be a ML player but simply an organizational filler type.
    If he could put up the same numbers at Binghamton next year at least he could
     help make the AA team better than it was this year.
    
1. Maldonado will be a minor league free agent next year.  Players become free agents after six FULL minor league seasons.  Maldonado was the Mets 10th round pick in ’04, so that year doesn’t count.  His full seasons include ’05, ’06, ’07, ’08, and ’09.  He’ll be a free agent after 2010. 

2. Yeah, you pretty much nailed this one.  Hitting .273/.348/.466 at age 23 in the FSL does not make him a top prospect.  The 18 HR and 19 2B are nice, but the 126 strikeouts in 122 games while being old for the league suggests that his problems making contact will preclude him from an MLB career.  It’s not obvious to me that he’ll make the AA Binghamton affiliate better; pitchers at the next level might just exploit his troubles with contact. 

David C asks:
Love the blog and you do excellent work. One quick question for 2010. What are your thoughts/opinions on Emmanuel Garcia. I’ve grown to really like this kid, even tho he will probably never be a star. Where do you see him in 2010, AA stil?? Thanks for the time.

Manny Garcia helped his stock in 2009 by moving to centerfield, and even though he was learning on the job, performing well.  However, he hit just .246/.305/.320 at age 23.  Not only will he not be a star hitting like that, he cannot be a big league regular.  Garcia spent most of the year in the leadoff spot where he admitted that he being asked to see more pitches was hard on him, because he was uncomfortable hitting with two strikes. 
His 2010 destination will in part be determined by what the Mets do in the offseason, but CF in double-A does not look like an option with Kirk Nieuwenhuis poised to patrol NYSEG Stadium’s turf for the B-Mets.  Would they bring Jesus Feliciano back for another year at AAA?  Garcia’s season hardly indicates he’s ready for AAA, but the Mets might try him up there anyway. 

I’m starting to clean out the email inbox this morning.  I’ve had lots of really good questions recently, so there will be more mailbags today, and next week.  You can email me fresh questions here.

Ben T asks:
Why does Arizona pick ahead of the Mets? What was the tiebreaker?

The tiebreaker is the previous year’s record.  So despite finishing with identical 70-92 records this year, the D-Backs edge the Mets on overall level of lousiness as their 82-80 2008 record was worse than the Mets 89-73 mark.

Ben T. follows up:

The seventh pick in the draft is a premium pick.  And yes, the best players do drop for signability reasons.  The Mets should be in a position to add a big-time talent at #7 next year.
This year for example, after the Nationals selected Stephen Strasburg, who was the best pitcher and best prospect in the draft, the Mariners selected OF Dustin Ackley, the best college hitter at #2 and then the Padres went for OF Donavan Tate, the top prep position player.  After Tate, teams avoided prep position position players until pick #16.  Also, after Tate, teams went signability, or at least mixed cost into their calculations.  At #4 the Pirates drafted BC C Tony Sanchez, and while the pick was widely panned at the time, the 21-year-old hit .309/.409/.539 in his debut, mostly at West Virginia in the SAL.  The next eight teams all picked pitchers, mixing HS arms with college arms, while taking players’ bonus demands into heavy consideration.  On the slipping front, the Rockies at #11 and the Rangers at #13 drafted Tyler Matzek and Matt Purke (although Purke didn’t sign), who were generally considered the two best LHP arms in the draft.