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I know there are a lot of questions out there about Baseball America’s Top 10 Mets Prospects list. The biggest surprises for me, where the addition of Ruben Tejada (#9) and Juan Urbina (#10).
I personally thought Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Jeurys Familia would round out the top 10, but according to Adam Rubin’s chat , they felt strongly about the list they came up with. Here are some of the questions that were asked about these players mentioned above…
Harris (Brooklyn): How did Nieuwenheis and/or Familia not make the top 10 over Thole? They both project to be better players than Thole. This should be list of players who will be better in the majors and not how fast they can get to the majors.
Adam Rubin: Guess you disagree, but we projected them to be better players than Thole, they probably would have been ranked higher than Thole on our list. They should be in the next set of 10. Nieuwenhuis has 20-homer, 20-steal potential, and one scout was reminded of Kirk Gibson—in terms of Nieuwenhuis’ mentality. Familia, named by the Mets as their top pitching performer, is exceedingly raw. Here’s what one scout who watched Familia closely said about him: “He’s got arm strength, that’s it. Great kid. Arm strength. Bad delivery. No breaking ball. Walked six guys the outing I saw him. Everything in delivery messed up. Was up to 95 mph. Doesn’t get through with his back side, no real balance, misses up in zone because doesn’t follow through/finish. He can’t because of the rest of stuff that’s going on.”
JAYPERS (IL): Kirk Nieuwenhuis had arguably one of the best seasons of any Mets prospect this year, yet missed the list. How close did he come, and what’s the skinny on him?
Adam Rubin: Here’s a little more on Nieuwenhuis from someone who watched him after he was promoted to Binghamton: “He will garner comparisons to Curtis Granderson in terms of his position and ability to fill up the stat sheet in many offensive categories. Good opposite field power and a plus overall hitter. Great contact guy. Batted in the leadoff spot at the end of the season with St. Lucie and Binghamton and produced many multi-hit games. Figures to be a 20-20 guy. Good range in center and an average to slightly above average major-league arm.”
Max (New Orleans): Don’t you think it’s a bit early to place Juan Urbina in the top 10? How does his stuff compare to Jeurys Familia’s or Kyle Allen’s?
Adam Rubin: The Mets spent $1.2 million on Urbina because they believe he’s a top-10-caliber prospect. His fastball averages 88-89 mph, with a peak of 91 mph, but he has a clean delivery. Team officials believe the velocity will climb a little as he gets instruction, but that’s fine for a lefthander. Familia throws from the opposite side and considerably harder and doesn’t have a clean delivery. Allen also is righthanded.
On to Tejada. In a previous chat, John Manuel had a different opinion on Ruben Tejada.
Zach (Wilton, CT): What is your take on Ruben Tejada?
John Manuel: Definite 21-30 guy, would have made the top 30 if he just had one plus tool. He had a nice season, though, and I’m impressed with how well he grinds through a year. He had a poor April and then was solid the rest of the season. But again, he’s maybe a 55 runner according to the scouts I talked to, and the guys who liked him considered him fringy offensively with below-average power. The consensus was that he’s more of a utility guy as a result.
For John Manuel to say that Tejada was a 21-30 guy last month, then to find Tejada in the top 10, to me is a bit of a surprise. I know we are splitting hairs on this, but it brings on great conversation….
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That scout quoted on Familia sounds full of it to me.
He mentions that Familia walked 6 guys when he saw him…which Familia obviously doesn’t do every day, since he’s averaged 2.9 BB/9 over his career. I’ll admit I’m no scouting expert, but it seems crazy to watch a guy just once, on what may have been his worst start of the year, and diss him based on that sample.
seriously, talk about dumb.
he “watched him closely” in “the one outing.”
what’s more likely: he had a bad day mechanically or that it’s an everyday occurrence. presumably, with a walk rate ~3, i’m going to assume that it was a bad day.
why do they have to generalize? he saw him once. any pitcher can have a day where their mechanics are out of whack. that’s why they have bad days.
Allen’s righthanded…haha. So are 90% of all Major League starters! Urbina I’ve read is only topping 86MPH right now so his assessment of sitting 88-89 is total crap!
I love he doesn’t answer that guy’s question on Allen… “Allen is also right handed.”
Thats nice, Adam. Did you know the sky was blue?
It’s sad that Familia was beat up in such a manner by Rubin through his single source. Young man had a wonderful season and for a single scout to downgrade that it’s truly unappealing as is Rubin for using that inaccurate info, just ask Omar.
Rubin talks with fork tongue. Neiuwenhuis doesn’t make it, yet he’s a 20/20 guy? Is our depth that deep in talent? Sure sounds like it.
Rubin comments on his own blog that he makes the lists and Baseball America approves them.
I see that NickM is plugging away at the three (3), Allen, Familia and Neiuwenhuis and the guy still doesn’t answer him with any validity as to why or why not. Oh that’s right, Allen’s also a righthander and Familia had a bad outing once.
Toby, what is it that separates Familia from Allen for you? Do you ever speak to the Mets staff or do you base this on your opinions/stats things you’ve seen/heard?
As I recall, you were able to see them last year live, but not this year, correct?
It’s a topic of discussion on many boards, Familia vs Allen, when it’s great the two are in the Mets system, but for you it’s seems to be Familia. Why? Many others say Allen. We all know that Urbina isn’t even in the same category at this point. Certainly he maybe in years to come, but for now he’s a future prospect, not a prospect.
Obviously, when Manuel said Tejada was 21-30 he meant in the AA Eastern League. That shouldn’t make him a surprise at #9 in one system. Maybe a bit more a surprise though is that he was ahead of Thole in that league, but behind him here.
But, those AA lists are very deep. The #19 guy on that list, Zach McAllister, was recently voted the #5 guy in the Yankees system by community members at minorleagueball.com, and the 20th guy, Brandon Snyder was ranked 7th in a deep Orioles system. So it shouldn’t surprise to have a guy in the low 20s there rank 9th. Tejada was supposedly not very far behind those guys.
Maybe a bit surprising still that Nieuwenhuis was 13th in the FSL, and still didn’t make the Mets top 10, but the A+ level won’t be quite as deep as AA, and at any rate it does show the Mets have some pretty good depth there.
Familia and Allen are really close for me actually. Familia has a little more power, but Allen has a better feel for a changeup. I couldn’t kill someone for ranking either one ahead of the other. And yes, my opinions are based on stats, things I’ve heard, and conversations with people in the game, both in and out of the Mets organization.