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The good guys over at Project Prospect have put together their list of the top five prospects in the Arizona Fall League. Their list:
1. Stephen Strasburg
2. Buster Posey
3. Dustin Akley
4. Yonder Alonso
5. Josh Bell
HM: Domonic Brown, Starlin Castro, Mike Leake, Jenrry Mejia, Thomas Neal and Jose Tabata
I think the top three on that list are pretty much unassailable.
However, I was very surprised by Alonso at #4. The 22 year-old broke his hamate bone this year, limiting him to 84 games, over which time he hit just nine homers. In 49 games he hit .303/.383/.497 in the FSL and then .295/.372/.457 in 29 games in the AA Southern League. In 23 games in the AFL, Alonso hit a pedestrian .267/.353/.395 with two homers, three doubles and a triple. While he didn’t show much power, he did draw 12 walks against 15 strikeouts.
Davis, meanwhile, split his year nearly evenly between the FSL and AA, smacking 20 homers on his way to a .298/.386/.524 year. In the AFL, Davis hit .341/.394/.565 with four homers and seven doubles.
Davis is a better defender. Alonso showed more patience in the AFL, but drew only slightly more walks in AA. Davis hit 20 HR to Alonso’s 9 in the regular season. Wrist injuries badly sap a hitter’s power even after he’s returned to the lineup, so Alonso’s power potential will become much clearer in the coming season.
To rank Alonso this much ahead of Davis requires some combination of the following:
1. a belief in that Alonso will hit for much more power than he did in 2009
2. a belief that Davis’ tendency towards striking out will drag his entire offensive game down at higher levels.
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Thanks for the link Toby. We’ll have to make sure to meet up the next time we’re both at the AFL.
You laid out the debate well. I do think Alonso is going to hit for a lot more power next season. And contact is a concern with Davis — it’s tough to be a good contact hitter when you’re at tall as he is.
For what it’s worth, I put together a list of 10 guys who we strongly considered but didn’t list as honorable mentions and Ike Davis was one of them.
Yeah, contact isn’t really Davis’ thing, both from that height and with that funky swing. I don’t think I saw Alonso in game action in the AFL, but he’s supposed to be shorter to the ball. Do you have video to confirm it?
Yeah, we got a lot of Alonso — saw the Saguaros play seven times this month. He has a beautiful swing. We’re releasing a digital prospect guide this offseason — a pdf with video on many of the game’s top 300 prospects. We’ll have video of him in it.
It’s not a right of passage thing with Alonso and Davis. I really liked Davis coming out of college. And I still think he’s a very good prospect. But you’ll struggle to find an objective evaluator who has seen him and Alonso play and doesn’t prefer Alonso.
Storen does have impressive stuff. I liked the movement on his fastball and his ability to pitch inside with it. He’s a guy who could move through the minors quickly. But there are a lot of potential regulars who we didn’t have as HMs, and I can’t see putting him ahead of any of them.
Having seen all of those guys in the FSL, I’d say that Alonso’s swing and approach was actually more similar to Havens than Davis. He had tremendous plate discipline, a quick stroke, and great bat speed. Except he’s also a bigger stronger kid than Havens and could have something like 25-30 HR power. And, he’s shown much more ability to hit for average.
Now Davis is an even bigger kid, who might end up with even more natural power than Alonso, but that won’t translate into more in game power if he’s not making as much contact.
The thing that’s encouraging for Davis so far though is that despite the SO, he’s been able to hit for both average and power. If he continues to adjust to better pitching, and improves against breaking stuff, and you see those SO rates continue to fall with more experience, it might get to where Davis could project as the better player. But for now Alonso is still the safer bet.
Davis right now has a somewhat long swing. He gets away with it because he also has strong hands and adjusts very well with that top hand once underway. Alonso seems to be able to wait a bit longer on the pitch before committing.
I’m surprised that Drew Storen did not at least get an honorable mention.
C’mon Toby – You know how this works.
Yonder was the 7th overall pick. He was widely regarded as one of the top hitters in college. He works out with Alex Rodriguez. Cuban kid.
I mean sometimes the right of passage is not the same for everyone.