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Thole
On Thursday, while Mets fans and Americans across the country were watching lousy NFL football and eating delicious food, Josh Thole was in Venezuela, doing the same thing he’s been doing for going on two years now: hitting. The 23-year old Thole was 2-5 on Thanksgiving with a pair of doubles, giving him doubles in three straight games*. He homered on Friday and had three more hits Saturday to briefly push his batting average over .400. An 0-4 Sunday dropped Thole down to .391/.488/.571 133 AB over 39 games.
He leads the VWL in AVG and OBP, is second in doubles, is fifth in slugging and is the second toughest player to strikeout in the league. As a whole, its an offense friendly league which is hitting .287/.364/.428, but Thole is just raking down there. Thole owns 13 2B, 1 3B, and 3 HR and 24 walks against 13 strikeouts. Just think about this: he has more extra-base hits than strikeouts.
Reviews of Thole’s defense this summer were not good, but the results appear better this winter. He’s been tested in Venezuela, where opponents’ 38 stolen base attempts are the most against any catcher. Thole has thrown out 11 runners, a 29%. By contrast, the rocket-armed Henry Blanco, has nailed 62% (16 of 26) would-be basestealers. In terms of receiving, Thole has not been charged with a single passed ball. Also, Caracas’ pitching staff has been charged with 23 wild pitches, the second-fewest in the league, but this is a staff with good control; it also leads the league in fewest walks.
Thole’s fine winter comes after an impressive summer in which he made his Major League debut on September 3rd with a 2-5 performance. In 17 games in the season’s final month, he hit .321/.356/.396 at the big league level with four walks and five strikeouts in 53 AB. Thole earned his September call-up by hitting .328/.395/.422 at AA Binghamton in 103 games.
The Market
Take a look at the scary list of the free agent catchers.
| Age | EQA | Type | AB | G | |
| Rod Barajas | 34 | .230 | B | 429 | 125 |
| Yorvit Torrealba | 31 | .257 | B | 213 | 64 |
| Bengie Molina | 35 | .252 | A | 491 | 132 |
| Miguel Olivo | 31 | .261 | B | 390 | 114 |
| Henry Blanco | 38 | .264 | NR | 204 | 67 |
| Ramon Castro | 34 | .267 – NYM; .219 CHI | NR | 165 | 57 |
| Gregg Zaun | 37 | .261 – BAL; .269 TB | B | 262 | 90 |
| Brian Schneider | 33 | .231 | NR | 170 | 59 |
| Jason Kendall | 35 | .243 | B | 452 | 134 |
| Josh Bard | 31 | .233 | NR | 274 | 90 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 38 | .231 | B | 98 | 28 |
| Omir Santos | 28 | .249 | 281 | 96 | |
| Josh Thole | 23 | .284 | 53 | 17 |
Age is a player’s age on Opening Day 2010. EQA is one of Baseball Prospectus’ advanced production metrics were .260 is the league average. Type is the Elias category for each player.
The Mets have been linked most closely to Rod Barajas, Yorvit Torrealba and Bengie Molina, all of whom are over 30, and underwhelming at best the plate.
Barajas hit .226/.258/.403 with 19 homers and 19 doubles for Toronto. The 19 HR were two off a career-high he set in 2005 with Texas. He’s an OBP sink.
Molina hit .265/.285/.442 and set a new career high with twenty homers to go along with 25 doubles in San Francisco. Molina has been consistent, hitting between 15-20 HR each year for the last five. He walked 13 times in 2009. Yes, 13. Thole has drawn twice that number in one month in Venezuela. At his MLB rates, Thole would equal that number in less than two months. Molina is not an OBP sink. He’s a black hole. Also, Molina is a type A free agent so the Mets would have to give up their second round draft pick for the privilege of paying Molina to kill rallies.
Torrealba hit .291/.351/.380 for Colorado in a backup role.
Pass
Do you see a significant offensive upgrade over a Thole/Santos tandem? I don’t. The Mets must spend their money on positions, notably 1B and LF, where the market provides an appreciable upgrade over the players they ran out on the field in 2009. Catcher simply does not offer serious improvement opportunities in the same way.
*I originally referred to Thole as being 24 on Opening Day 2010. Thanks to an eagle-eyed reader for catching my brain fart.
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Hopefully someone of more interest becomes available through the non-tender group, otherwise they’ll be going into most games next year with a 7-8-9 that will have on OBP of .270-.280
I just don’t see then handing over a veteran pitching staff to Thole to start the year. But they need to be smart and not put too much money into someone who might be replaced by Thole in July.
While I agree with you its hard to just hand it over to Thole, your more handing it over to Santos and Thole spelling him 2 or 3 days a week. And handing it over to Santos with his limited big league experience scares me. Not so much with Thole. Of all the catchers available the only one guy I would look at is Miguel Olivio. He’s one of the younger catcher and his numbers are in line with league average, and he offers a little pop.
Realistically none of these guys are a serious upgrade, and will cost a boat load of money while Thole and Santos are/will be league minimum.
So as I’ve stated over on MetsBlog, my off-season interests start and end with LF and SP. Where you can completely upgrade and transform this team in the off-season. The mets have anywhere from 30-40 million easily to spend. I think the last places it should be spent is on catcher. Unless Joe Mauer becomes available.
Molina is terrible. I would look at Kelly Shoppach as a trade target/non-tendered target. Doumit is also interesting [as a trade target], although he supposedly he isn’t a very good defensive catcher. But in terms of those free agents listed, my best bet would be going with Zaun for 1 year.
No way do I keep Thole up to play 2-3 times a week.
This kid is a solid prospect, he can develop into a solid defensive catcher that can hit for average and get on base. BUT, he won’t do that if he isn’t playing.
Unless this team wants to start Thole 4-5 times a week, send him down to AAA and let him play every day. He is 24 and still has room for improvement. But he won’t improve if he doesn’t play.
Send him down, let him get better defensively, and maybe in 2011 or 2012 he is your starting catcher.
I agree and i’m not a scout but i dont understand how this kid can hit like this and not be considered a solid prospect. For the past few years, Mets fans have been told that our best catching prospect is Pena and i’m sorry i look at his stat line and i’m not impressed one bit.
Now i’m not going to be a homer and say he will be the next Joe Mauer, but his numbers offensively arent far off at all. If he’s even half the player i’ll take it. This kid just hits and hits and gets on base. I don’t care if he hits maybe 5-10 homeruns a year as long as he hits the way he hits. I say dont trade any of these farm pieces, sign a lackey, holliday or who ever else and let the next set of players develop the right way.
They need to Stop rushing these kids
Your right on the money… He’s not going to have the power of Joe Mauer. But he hits, hits consistently, has great gap power. He will hit a Ton of XBH’s and realistically from a catcher if you hit .300 with a near.400 OBP your better then 90% of the starting catchers in MLB.
His defense will be some concern, but as we’ve all seen with guys like Piazza, Posoda and the like of them. If your offensively good enough to help the ball club, they will start you even with some defensive liabilities.
Apparently the Mets are close to re-signing Cora to a 1 year deal worth $2M with a vesting option.
Ugh…. I can only hope its not true or the money is wrong.. Cora isn’t worth $2M, and hes certainly not worth a vesting option.