Busy day today.   Here’s the plan:

1.  go to doctor’s office for a cast for my left arm for a broken radius.

2.  watch Stanford beat Oklahoma in the Sun bowl on TiVo.

3.  Attend a special NYE formal poker night (shirt and tie required, dresses for the ladies) at the home of my regular Thursday game. Win money.

4. Party like it’s 2010.

See you in the new year everybody!

Update:

1.  I have a radial head fracture, so with no displacement the recommended treatment is to skip the hard cast.

2. OU 31- Stanford 27. Bummer.

3. Fun.

4.  More fun.

Ted Berg defends  the Mets deal with Jason Bay, answering the attacks of Jeff Passan and Rob Neyer.

John Harper at the Daily News, in a typically meandering article likes the Bay signing, but complains that he can’t pitch.   It’s a common criticism.

At Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan,  who had argued that the Mets should sign Matt Holliday, writes “Anyway, the Mets still have Danny Murphy at first base, no starting catcher, and a big gap between their first starter and the rest of the rotation. If this is their last move, then they’ve wasted the money.”   Keith Law made the same point yesterday:  the Mets still have work to do before opening day 2010.

Amazin’ Avenue  is running a cool fan poll  to predict Jason Bay’s defense in left field. Go here to vote.   I voted.  The problem is not only projecting his defense in 2010, but in 2011, 2012, 2013 and perhaps in an option-vested 2014.

I got the following e-mail Wednesday:

the one area which i think you need to remember when comparing the two is the mental aspect. jason bay played in boston, one of the hardest media markets to play in. and he played there as a replacement to manny, a very hard act to follow. and succeeded. not only suceeded, but he was a goto individual for the media much like wright is. and on top of that he is supposedly an extremely strong clubhouse presence and locker room leader.

with the mets lacking media presence outside of wright (unless you count franceur) and a locker room leader, i think they wanted to go with the guy who they KNEW can handle the pressures of NY over holliday, who has played only in oakland, colorado and st louis. i think they were also scared off by holliday’s struggles being “the man” in oakland only returning to form in st louis where he can play 2nd fiddle to albert pujols. i think there are some serious questions about holliday’s ability under pressure.

I responded:

Thanks for the e-mail. I hope you have a very merry new year.

The mental argument doesn’t cut it for me.

You make a fair point re: Jason Bay’s ability to handle the Boston clubhouse, and the Boston media. That experience should be good preparation for the New York writers/fans him/savages.   That type of preparation could be a factor in choosing one player over another  if all else is equal. This is not one of those cases. Holliday has proven to be the superior player, and by a significant amount.

As far as Holliday is concerned by your own admission,  he succeeded in St. Louis playing a supporting role to Albert Pujols.   With the Mets, he would also have been asked to play a similar supporting role. Regardless of how good Holliday could have been, or Bay will be for the 2010 for the Mets, the team is only going to make the playoffs if David Wright finds his power and Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Johan Santana remain healthy.   Essentially, the Mets would be asking both left fielders to play complementary roles.

I have no questions about Holliday’s ability to play under pressure.   None. Zero. I’m not sure why you would either. Thrust into the middle of a pennant race with St. Louis this year,  Holliday hit .353/419/604.  Do you remember 2007?  Holliday hit .340/.405/.607, but more to the point got better later in the year when the Rockies made their extraordinary run to the playoffs.    He was better in the second half than in the first but was totally unconscious  (.365/.447/.788) in September when the Rockies won 12 of their final 13 games to make the playoffs.

Yesterday,  at fangraphs.com,  Mark Hulet posted his Mets top 10 prospect list on the heels of his draft analysis.

Hewlett’s list goes: goes

1. Fernando Martinez

2. Ike Davis

3. Jenrry Mejia

4.Wilmer Flores

5. Jon Niese

6. Brad Holt

7. Ruben Tejada

8. Josh Thole

9. Kirk Nieuwenhuis

10. Jeurys Familia

Writing for Baseball America, Adam Rubin,  had the same top four players.   However,  he put Mejia at number one, followed by the three position players, in order, Flores, Martinez, and Davis.

Lets zero in on Martinez vs. Davis.  Keep in mind both Martinez and Davis play positions where they are expected to hit for average and power to be viable major-league contributors.   In 2009, Davis played in 114 games, Martinez has never surpassed 86 in the minor-league season. In 2009, Davis hit 20 home runs, Martinez, who hit nine, has never surpassed 10 in a season.  Davis posted both higher strikeout and walk rates and Martinez in 2009.   Martinez might own a little more bat speed, but Davis owns the better recent results.  Davis will be 23 on opening Day 2010, while Martinez will still be 21.

The other major discrepancy between the two lists is that Rubin has Reese Havens at number seven, two spots ahead of Ruben Tejada at number nine. Havens did not make Hulet’s top 10

1. How did Mike Francesca break the Jason Bay to the Mets story on his Tuesday program after teasing it Monday? How did all of the writers both on the Mets beat and on the national beat miss it?

2. More importantly what does the signing do for the Mets?
An Upgrade

Immediately, the 31-year-old Bay will improve the Mets left field position.  In 699 plate appearances in 2009, Mets LF hit .276/.352/.421 with 35 2B, 9 3B and just 12 HR. In 2009 for Boston, Bay hit .267/.384/.537 with 29 2B and a career-high 36 home runs. Bay’s ability to get on base and hit for power will be welcome additions to the Mets lineup.

However, Mets pitchers, should reasonably fear Bay’s work in right field at Citi Field. Bay’s Ultimate Zone Rating in 2009 was -13. By UZR’s calculations, he has cost his team at least 10 runs afield every year since 2007, and the only year in which he has been a positive contributor defensively was 2006. Clay Davenport’s system also rates Bay as a below average defender. Moreover, he’s likely to become a worse defender as he ages.
Value vs. Holliday

The Mets have reportedly signed Bay for $66 million over four years ($16.5 million annually) with an “easy” vesting option for the fifth year that will push the deal’s total value to roughly $80 million. As Dave Studeman points out, Bay fit the Mets need for both a left fielder and a power hitter. To me, the Mets’ needs, and market considerations, render the analysis here at Fangraphs which calls the signing a “significant overpay” based on a market value of $3.5 million per WAR, a little limited. The Mets needed a left fielder who hits for power.  They needed a player who can help them make a run at the Phillies.

The question for me is whether the money they spent on Bay would have been better spent on Matt Holliday. Following Bay’s signing, ESPN reported that Holliday’s agent, Scott Boras, is now asking teams for roughly $18 million dollars annually, or $1.5 more than the Mets are paying Bay.

If the ESPN report is accurate, the Mets will be paying nearly top dollar for the second best player on the market, for a similar contract length.  That’s not good. To recap here are Bay and Holliday’s WAR valuations since 2005:

Holiday has been the better player, by a significant amount every year since 2007.   What reasonable explanation is there to think that Bay, who is a year and a half older, will be better moving forward?

Offense Only

Keith Law argues that Fenway’s Green monster makes Bay appear worse defensively than he actually is. However, he ranked as a below average defender even before he reached Boston.   By contrast, among LF with more than 600 innings, Holliday was the seventh best defender this past season and has been consistently above average.

Even if you accept Law’s argument, that fielding statistics generated in left field at Fenway Park are invalid, Holliday still outperforms Bay when examining only the two players’ offensive contributions. Take a look at the following table which examines the two by VORP, which is measured in runs not wins, and considers only a player’s offense, for the last four years:

To Yank or Not?

Is the signing entirely explained by the fact that the Mets are enamored of Jason Bay’s pull approach?   Hittracker.com,  has the scatter plots of the true ending distances for all of Jason Bay and Matt Holliday’s 2009 homeruns. The scatterplot for Bay comes first.   All  but five of Bay’s homeruns were hit to the left of straightaway center field,  and most were pulled towards the left-field corner.

Matt Holliday’s scatter chart follows.   Unlike Bay, Holliday uses the whole field to hit his home runs.

Here   are all of the home runs hit at Citi Field in 2009:

Citi Field looks like  it would cost both ballplayers some long balls.  Primarily, it would cost Bay on balls hit into the left-field corner and it would cost Holliday on balls to right center.   Is this a significant enough reason to prefer Bay over Holliday?   Not for me it’s not.

Moving Forward

Which player would age better over the life of his contract?   Entering 2009, PECOTA,  showed Holliday holding his value longer than Bay.

The Organization

What does the Bay signing tell us about how the Mets view the future of prospects Ike Davis and Fernando Martinez?   Probably not much. On the other hand, it indicates that the team realizes that it can not count on Jeff Francoeur repeating his Mets half of the 2009 season.  Martinez, who will be 21 to start 2010, now looks headed for Buffalo, where he will try to  stay healthy for the first time in a full season. Should  Francouer return to his  below replacement level struggles that marked his time before the Mets, and Martinez is hitting in AAA,  he will return for his second chance in the big leagues. Also likely, Ike Davis will join Fernando Martinez to start 2010 at Buffalo. Unless the Mets add a first baseman, Davis has a chance to hit his way into the New York lineup during the 2010 season.

Long-term,  the presence of both Davis and Martinez potentially limits the Mets options with Bay. In theory, the Mets could move Bay to firstbase at the end of his contract to mitigate his poor defense in left field. However, Mets fans expect Davis to be the Mets starting first baseman by 2011 or even by late 2010. Davis’s potential ascendance would keep Bay in the outfield. On the other hand, Davis who played in the outfield for the US team at the baseball World Cup this fall, could potentially move to the outfield to accommodate Bay.  Shifting players in this manner hardly seems like the recipe for replicating the strong team defense which helped carry the Mets in 2007 and 2008.

Conclusion

I have been a fan of Jason Bay for a long time. However, he was not the best leftfielder on the market this winter,  that honor belonged to Matt Holliday.   As it now stands, Holliday appears to be poised to make more money than Bay, both on a per anum basis  and on the lifetime of the contract.

The Mets got their left fielder. He gives the team a better chance to win in 2010. Even so, I think the team picked the wrong leftfielder.

So the Mets signed 35-year-old knuckleballer RA Dickey this week and I’m thrilled. Why? Well, it has little to do with his 4.62 ERA in 64.1 IP with the Minnesota Twins in 2009 or his career 5.43 MLB ERA.

First, I like watching knuckleball pitchers.  When the knuckler actually works, it’s super-fun to see hitters look silly chasing it.

Secondly, RA Dickey is responsible for one of my favorite interviews of all time.  I talked to him after he beat the Iowa Cubs, the team I was working for, in game one of a doubleheader back in 2007.   Interviewing opposing players can be tough, but I learned a whole bunch from Dickey about how a knuckleball pitcher views the world in three minutes.

For example, he explained that he liked throwing in Des Moines, because it was a good place for his knuckleball “based on the climate, the conditions, the wind,” at waterfront Principal Park.  He elaborated, “This is a good place for it: there’s a gentle breeze, there’s enough humidity for the seams – the lack of rotation – to grab onto … We just came from New Orleans where the humidity’s so thick that it’s tough for the ball to do much.”

Just listen to the full interview:

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Third, Dickey has no ulnar collateral ligament, the “Tommy John” piece of the elbow.  That’s cool too.

The Dominican Winter League regular season ended this week, and in 14 games for the Leones del Escogido, Fernando Martinez hit .191/.264/.213 in 47 AB.  It was the first game action for Martinez since he had surgery on torn cartilage in his right knee in July.  It’s important not to make too big a deal of 47 lousy at-bats, but they certainly weren’t very productive.  Martinez had but one extra-base hit, a double, walked four times and fanned 13 times. 

Of course, whether or not Martinez will go to spring training with a chance to earn a big league job depends entirely on whether the Mets sign Jason Bay, Matt Holiday (I’m still hoping), or some other veteran corner bat. 

I was looking over players’ performance in winter-ball, and noticed that Tobi Stoner has not thrown for his Leones del Escogido since November 29th.  His final outing, in which he gave up seven runs, was his worst as a Lion, and it would appear that his DWL season ended early.

He ended the season with a 3.10 ERA in 52.1 IP over nine starts, with 31 strikeouts and 15 walks.  In each of his stops this year, Stoner struck out fewer than six batters per nine innings while in 2009, the NL average was 7.1 K/9. 

Did I miss something?  Anyone know why he has not pitched in the last month?