Did Mark Ingram deserve to win the Heisman trophy Saturday night?  The best answer I can come up with, is “not really, but it’s clear why the voters picked him.”

Lets compare Ingram to Toby Gerhart, the two running backs in the Heisman field, in the closest Heisman voting in history.  It wasn’t just that Ingram’s 28 point margin over Gerhart was the closest in history, but both Colt McCoy and Ndamukong Suh received more third and fourth place votes than anyone in history.

Gerhart led the FBS in yards on the ground.  However, Ingram, who was the Tide’s third-leading receiver, was more active in the passing game, leaving the two backs withing twenty yards in total yards gained from the line of scrimmage.  Both backs accounted for just over a third of their team’s total offensive production.
Gerhart’s real advantage over Ingram in the touchdown category.  Gerhart led the FBS in touchdowns, while Ingram was 15th.  Gerhart  set a new Pac-10 single-season record for scores, beating out OJ Simpson, Marcus Allen, Reggie Bush (the last RB to win a Heisman before Ingram) and everyone else.  Is that touchdown advantage enough to argue that Gerhart deserved the hardware?  As a fantasy football player, all too familiar with the fluky nature of individual toughdowns in a season, I say no.  However, Gerhart’s touchdown advantage should count for something.

Did Ingram produce against a tougher schedule?  Maybe, but not really.  An Alabama booster ran the numbers and realized that on average, Gerhart faced tougher run defenses both overall, and in conference. According to the Sagarin rankings, Alabama played the 12th hardest schedule, while Stanford played the 23rd.  Remarkably, ‘Bama was 7-0 versus the top 30.  Sagarin ranks the SEC as the toughest conference in teh NCAA, followed immediately and closely by the Pac-10.  Football Outsiders, which factors in the quality of a team’s opponent, has Stanford’s rushing offense ranked 8th, and Alabama’s 23rd.  Based on drive efficiency, Stanford is 2nd to Alabama’s 7th.

Did Ingram’s production count more because he played for an undefeated national championship contender rather than a four-loss Stanford team?  In the voter’s minds, clearly.

The major difference between the two running backs was simply national exposure.  Alabama had nine egames on national TV (1 on ABC, 2 on ESPN, and 6 on CBS) including the most hyped game of the college season, the SEC championship against #1 Florida.  Stanford by contrast appeared on national tv four times, twice on ABC and twice on Versus, hardly a college football hotspot.  Breaking down the voting by region, Gerhard and Ingram won their home regions handily, the Far West and the South decisively.  However, the extra tv time allowed Ingram to build up a lead in the Mid-Atlantic (35 points) and Southwest (34 points).  Kudos to the Southwest, for being the only region where Ndamukong Suh lead the voting.

One other note about the voters and early voting.  The Heisman committee does a laudable job working to ensure geographic balance among its members.   There were 870 ballots this year.  Inexplicably, 11 were turned in with two weeks to go in the college football season, and 89 were turned in before the season’s final week.  Yes, it’s a tradition that voters can vote early on the Heisman.  However, in this digital age, where voting is conducted instantly online, all 100 of the voters who voted early should lose their votes.  Seriously.  Those voters can’t be bothered to wait until all of the data is in on all of their players they’re voting on?  It’s simple.  Ingram won not because he was appreciably better than Gerhart, McCoy, Suh or Tebow, but rather because he plays very well on the best team, which has huge national exposure.  This is a version of the same argument that baseball has every fall.  Should the MVP awards actually go to the best players or those whose teams made the playoffs?  While the BBWAA got it right this year, with Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols, college football did not.

As much as I was rooting for Gerhart, unlike the other four finalists, Ndamukong Suh was clearly the best player at his position.  He should have been the first pure defensive player to win the trophy.

Gerhart led the NCAA FBS in rushing yards, but Ingram, who was the Crimson Tide’s third-leading receiver, was more involved in Alabama’s passing game, so the two are very close in total yards from scrimmage.
Gerhart’s real advantage was in finding the end zone.  He led the FBS in touchdowns, and set a new Pac-10 single-season record for touchdowns in a season.  In a conference whose alumni include OJ Simpson, Marcus Allen

Baseball America is taking a look back at the NL Top 10s for the decade. They have ranked each teams top 10 prospects from the Top 10s of the last decade, as well as the best and worst draft pick of the decade. There is also a yearly organization chart, that shows BA’s annual minor league talent rankings. The players ranked are only those currently in MLB, so no current minor leaguers. They group the teams by division, so here are the NL East teams.

The best draft pick was David Wright 2002 supplemental 1st round.
the worst draft pick was Phillip Humber 2004 1st round.

The Mets Top 10 Prospects (peak rank in parenthesis):

1. David Wright (2)
2. Jose Reyes (1)
3. Scott Kazmir (1)
4. Aaron Heilman (1)
5. Brian Bannister (9)
6. Mike Pelfrey (1)
7. Mike Jacobs (4)
8. Kaz Matsui (1)
9. Matt Lindstrom (10)
10. Carlos Gomez (3)

Yearly BA minor league talent rankings:

2000- 22nd
2001- 20th
2002- 27th
2003- 13th
2004- 10th
2005- 19th
2006- 28th
2007- 13th
2008- 28th
2009- 17th

To think that Heilman and Matsui were #1 prospects in this organization is painful. I am surprised not to see Lastings Milledge in the list. Some of these players were traded for studs (Jacobs and Gomez), but the rest of them (Kazmir, Heilman, Bannister, Matsui, and Lindstrom) were traded for duds. So far only Wright, Reyes, and Kazmir have been all stars. The others have all been average major-leaguers. Compared to the other NL East teams, the Mets list is more impressive than only the Nationals. With the information given, during this past decade, the Braves, Marlins, and Phillies are well ahead of the Mets in their scouting and player development departments.

The Rule 5 draft went down Thursday.  The Mets did not select and keep any players in the Major Leauge phase.  Remember, any player drafted in the MLB phase must be kept on his new team’s active roster all year or else the drafting team must offer him back to his original squad.  Last year, the Mets drafted Darren O’Day from the Angels last year, but Texas grabbed him when the Mets DFAd him in April. O’Day was worth 1.4 WAR with Texas, landing him a spot in the top 30 in relief pitcher value in a year in which his K/BB ratio was above 3 (56 K/18 BB) and he compiled a 1.84 ERA in 68 games.

Instead, with the #7 pick, the Mets drafted Phillies’ RHP Carlos Monasterios and immediately sent him to the Dodgers for cash.  Monasterios has pitched exactly 7.1 innings above A-ball where in 2009 he had a very impress K/BB ratio of 3 (71 K, 27 BB, 82 IP) for Clearwater. There are no roster requirements with regard to players drafted in the minor league phases.  In Venezuela this winter, he is 7-2 with a 3.52 EA in 10 appearances.  Monasterios was the Phillies’ “prize” from the awful Bobby Abreu trade with the Yankees on July 30, 2006. 
I’d wager the trade conversation went something like this:
Ned Colletti: Hey, O are you guys gonna use your pick in the Rule 5 draft?
Omar: Doubt it.  The catchers there aren’t old enough, you know what I’m sayin? 
Ned: How about I pay you $500,000 to make a pick for me?
Omar: Nice.  That’s 2/3 of a Henry Blanco, you know what I’m saying?  That’s a good deal.   

What’s up with A Pakistan News reporting, in broken English, on this trade? 

So that took care of the Mets in the Major League portion.  Then, the Rule 5 draft moves to the minor league phase.  In this case, there are no roster restrictions for the drafting team.  With a player picked in the AAA phase,  his new team is under no obligation to avoid assigning him to AA or any other level.  The Mets appear to have targeted warm bodies who can survive in a AA bullpen in the minor league secion of the draft 
With their first pick in the AAA phase, the Mets picked John Lujan from the Chicago White Sox.  Lujan, a 6’1″, 200 lb right-hander was 3-5 with a 4.45 ERA win his second year with the AA-Southern League’s Birmingham Barons in 2009.  Lujan, who will be 25 in May 2010, struck out 51 K with 28 walks in 58.2 innings in 37 IP out of the Barons bullpen.  I regard him as minor league bullpen depth. 

With their second pick in the AAA phase, the Mets picked 1B Marshall Hubbard from the Mariners.  Hubbard, who will be 27 in April of 2010, has spent the last four seasons in AA, the last three with the West Tenn Diamond Jaxx culminating in a .271/.380/.434 line with 29 doubles and 14 homers in 447 AB over 129 G.  He, like Lujan before him, is merely minor leauge depth. 

The Mets were one of just three teams, joining the Nationals and Rangers to add at least a third player in the AAA phase, but the Mets were the only team to add four players, the final two from the Padres.  With their third pick they drafted RHP Rolando Valdez.  Valdez, who will be 24 at the beginning of January appeared in 17 games out of the AA San Antonio Missions’ bullpen in 2009 where he struck out 28 and walked 12 in 32.1 IP.  Valdez sports an 8.31 ERA in 19.1 IP over nine games with Obregon in the MPL, Mexico’s winter league.  With the 21st and final pick of the AAA portion, the Mets went after LHP Orlando Lara who has pitched in Mexico for most of the last three seasons and has never pitched above advanced-A in a stateside league.  In 2009, with the Diablos Rojos del Mexico he owned a 5.03 ERA in 18 games with 31 strikeouts, 21 walks and 60 hits in 48.1.  Both Valdez and Lara appear to offer little behind bodies to man the Binghamton, or perhaps the Buffalo bullpen. 
The Mets drafted RHP Johan Figuereo from the Nationals with their pick in the AA portion of the draft.  Figueroa, a converted OF, has spent the last two season with the Vermont Lake Monsters in the New York Penn League.  In those two years, he’s fanned 78 and walked 24 in 62.1 IP.  He’ll be 24 in March, but that strikeout rate is intriguing at least. 

The Mets lost their only player in the AA phase, when San Diego picked RHP Hayden Beard.  Beard has not appeared in a professional game in the US since 2006 when he put together a 5.34 ERA and 19 strikeouts against 17 walks in 30.1 IP as a 21-year old in the GCL.  Huh???

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today , the Mets have signed the 25-year old, minor-league free-agent RHP Clint Everts. Nightengale states that 15 clubs were pursuing Everts’ services.

Everts, 6′ 2″ 170lb, was the 5th overall selection of the Montreal Expos. According to Baseball America, Everts was the #1 prospect for the Expos in 2003 and 2004, the #4 Nationals prospect in 2005, and the #3 prospect in 2006.

After Tommy John surgery in September of 2004, Everts development was pushed back. Everts struggled as a SP in 2006 (6.00 ERA), and in 2007(4.81 ERA) he started to make his transition to the bullpen. The former high school teammate of one Scott Kazmir, Everts had a solid 2009 out of the bullpen. At A/AA/AAA Everts was 8-1, 1.65 ERA, 60IP, 26BB, 68 K, .228BA, 1.25WHIP. He may have seemed to find his niche in the bullpen.

Here is a link of a good article written this summer on Everts by, pennlive.com.

In a BA chat, Aaron Fitt answered a question about Everts:

Michael Stern (Rochester NY): Any hope still for Clint Everts? He seemed to pitch very well this year. Is his stuff still good enough to make it? He’s still only 25. Any chance?

Aaron Fitt: Everts actually had a nice bounce back year — I do think there’s hope for him as a big league bullpen guy. His fastball velocity was back up into the 89-92 range this year, his plus curveball is back, and he still has that good changeup. But he’s a six-year free agent, and I have a feeling his shot at the big leagues will come in another organization.

Hopefully Omar Minaya, whom originally drafted Everts, can find lightning in a bottle with Everts. At 25, there is still some upside there, and with 15 other clubs pursuing him, at least we know there was demand for him.

Photo courtesty of nationals.scout.com

Update:
This is the article, from El Universo in Venezuela, to confirm Onley’s report.

The President of the Leones de Caracas, Luis Avila, is quoted saying,” It’s a shame, but we came to a mutual decision, because he (Thole) wants to rest in December, and although he could have stayed with us until the 4th of January, he would have to leave to the United States the 8th to then return on the 11th. It was a very complicated itinerary where it was going to wear a lot on him and that is not our intention. What’s good in all of this, is that he is willing to come back next season.”

Thanks to metsblog.com for the link.

Original Post:
Buster Olney has reported, in his daily blog, that Josh Thole has decided not to return to play for the Leones de Caracas of the Venezuelan league. Onley stated that Thole wants to start prepping himself to fight for a job with the Mets in the spring. In 44 games for Caracas, Thole hit .380 (59-155), 16 doubles, 2 triples, 3 homeruns, and 28 RBI’s, while walking 25 times and striking out only 13 times. He ended his season ranking 2nd in BA (.380), 1st in OBP (.470), 4th in SLG. (.568), and 1st in OPS. (1.038).

Its obvious that Thole was not challenged offensively in Venezuela. What Thole needs to work on is defense, defense, defense, and I might add defense. His bat has sustained him as a prospect, and now his defensive skills need to catch up (no pun intended). It looks like the Mets will sign a veteran C, so that would likely mean Thole will start 2010 in AAA to fine tune his defensive skills, but Thole can make decisions harder by having an outstanding spring training.

The Mets have signed AAA slugger Mike Hessman to a minor league deal.  Hessman, who will be 32 on Opening Day 2010, has hit 311 minor league homeruns including seasons of 28, 24, 31, 34 and 23  for the Toledo Mud Hens in 2005-2009.  However, his overall batting line in 2009 was just .217/.324/.442 in 466 AB over 131 games this past season.  While he’s not really a viable MLBer, or anything close, as Christina Kahrl put it at Baseball Prospectus, “his Mighty Casey act has some entertainment value at Triple-A”He

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