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This morning, we’ll take a look at the major Mets transactions, both those that did happen like the Gary Matthews Jr. trade, and those that did not happen like the Bengie Molina signing, in the last week.
Gary Matthews Jr. and $21 million for Brian Stokes
My first reaction when I got my first email about Gary Matthews Jr. and the Mets was “you gotta be kidding me.” It’s not a joke, but it’s not that bad. The Mets are getting so much money back from Anaheim that they’ll only end up paying GMJ $1 million annually. When the cost of a player is $1 million and Brian Stokes, it’s hard to make a mistake of major magnitude, or make your team much better.
Matthews has been worth -1.3 WAR to the Angels in the last three years. His UZR numbers suggest that he been worth about -12 runs annually with a glove in his hand. Apparently, the 35-year old Matthews is an easy player to project, both Chone and Marcel have him hitting about .245/.321/.374, a below average line, with CHONE projecting a -0.8 WAR. His defense is extremely unlikely to get any better. The 30-year old Stokes has not pitched as well as his 3.97 ERA in 2009 or his 3.51 ERA in 2008 suggest. His FIP in ‘08 was 4.24 and 4.63 in ‘09. He walked 38 and struck out just 45 in 2009 in 70.1 innings, alarming numbers on both counts. Stokes has been worth almost exactly replacement level the last two years for the Mets, totalling -0.1. It’s a fair question whether he was even going to break camp with the Mets. Bill James, Chone and Marcel all project his as having an ERA of at least 4.40 in 2010, so once again, he’ll be a replacement level guy.
Gary Matthews was getting paid to be a star with the Angels, but played like a fourth or fifth outfielder. That’s the role he belongs in on the Mets even when Carlos Beltran is rehabbing. There’s every reason to expect the 28-year old Angel Pagan to outperform the elder newcomer, both at the plate and in the field. Coming off a 2.8 WAR in season in 2009, CHONE sees Pagan slipping back to 1.5 this year, but at least he can play center field at a level that won’t drive pitchers to drink. Splitting the difference between Chone and Marcel on Pagan at the plate gives something like .281/.337/.440.
Prospect Impact
I was looking forward to Fernando Martinez battling Pagan for playing time in spring training. Apparently, the Mets weren’t. Barring injury, this trade makes it very, very likely that Martinez will begin the season with a return engagement to Buffalo. I still expect to see Martinez in the big leagues before summer gets too hot. Either Pagan, who plays hard, will lose a battle with a wall, and GMJ will prove he (again) that he shouldn’t play everyday. Or Jason Bay’s knee gets cranky. Or Jeff Francouer strains a cheek muscle from smiling so much. If Martinez is hitting at AAA, he will get a chance again.
Hey, Eddie Kunz, the Mets just traded a reliever. Anytime the Mets shed a pitcher, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Jack Egbert, Tobi Stoner, Arturo Lopez, or Jay Marshall should have a little extra motivation to get their running in.
Giants Resign Bengie Molina for 1 yr/$4.5 million
I actually would have been ok had the Mets signed Molina for this deal, but the Mets were absolutely dead-on to not guarantee a second year. Holding firm for a player who’s just not good, was the right play. Molina is below average both offensively and defensively, but plays a lot at a difficult position and derives what little value his has from his durability. The only reason Molina ran a positive WAR the last two years was the strength of the stat’s positional and replacement level adjustments.
I love that he told the New York Post “I don’t understand why they didn’t want to commit to another year, with my numbers and my experience and things like that.” Well, gee Bengie, maybe the most germane numbers were your OBPs the last three years, in order: .298, .322, .285. Those numbers stink. Maybe where he saw experience the Mets saw a dude who would turn 36 in July.
Prospect Impact
Buy Josh Thole stock. I firmly believe that a platoon of Thole and either Henry Blanco, Chris Coste or Omir Santos would outperform a Molina. A Thole Blanco pairing is most palatable because of Blanco’s defensive abilities. Blanco can pick up some extra innings defensively late in games or perhaps against running teams.
Joel Pineiro Signs with the Angels for 2 yrs/ $16 million
As with the Molina signing, these numbers seem fair, but I’m pleased that Pineiro is working elsewhere. Pineiro’s 2009 was so much markedly better than the rest of career that it’s fair to wonder if his new success is sustainable. His 4.8 WAR was easily his career best, surpassing his 3.8 WAR with the Mariners in 2003. Here’s the amazing part: in the intervening five years, he accumulated 6.2 WAR total. Those who thought that signing Pineiro will properly argue that he was a different and better pitcher in ‘09. He threw his fastball 71% of the team, easily a career high and that it was a worth 23.1 runs above average versus twenty runs below average in ‘08 and at least 10 runs below average in every year since ‘08. The better sinker helped Pineiro to a career-high 60.5% groundball rate, where he’d never passed 50% in his seven MLB season.
One problem with Pineiro and the Mets is that the team employs Luis Castillo at second, and is considering bringing back Carlos Delgado to play first. If these two guys lined up on the rightside of the Mets infield, Pineiro would have a right to file a worker’s comp claim.
The second is that he could turn back into the 04-08 version of himself at any time.
Prospect Impact
Jon Niese, how’s that throwing program coming along? I firmly believe that Niese has a chance to be a hero for the 2010 Mets. Nelson Figueroa could be helpful too. Dillon Gee or Tobi Stoner should be pleased as well.
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“His 4.8 WAR was easily his career best, surpassing his 3.8 WAR with the Mariners in 2003. Here’s the amazing part: in the intervening five years, he accumulated 6.2 WAR total. Those who thought that signing Pineiro will properly argue that he was a different and better pitcher in ‘09. He threw his fastball 71% of the team, easily a career high and that it was a worth 23.1 runs above average versus twenty runs below average in ‘08 and at least 10 runs below average in every year since ‘08. The better sinker helped Pineiro to a career-high 60.5% groundball rate, where he’d never passed 50% in his seven MLB season.”
I disagree on Pineiro. It’s been shown via PitchFX what he’s doing is indeed significantly different than in previous years (Throwing the 2 seam sinker rather than a 4-seam fastball most of the time). This indicates his improvement is not a fluke.
Now as explained on fangraphs, his performance will drop; his walk rate and even HR rate (for a sinkerballer) was amazingly low, and this should increase a bit. But odds are he would still be a 3 WAR pitcher, which IMO would be worth 8Mil/year.
Unlike Molina, where the money would be going to a guy not much better than what they already have, its not like Pineiro would block anyone (no offense to Niese, but he could still be our 5th starter and well….injuries to starters are so frequent these days….) They should have strongly gone after the guy. But they fail.
I think what Toby said about pienerio was right on. He got the contract he deserved. But he’s glad to see another team saddled with him. His one year wonder is just too much to bank on, especially with a multi-year deal in a rotation that is already saddled with question marks. This is not a rotation that could have dealt with Pienerio reverting back to his pre-Duncan days.
Josh,
I agree that the pitch fx evidence makes it clear that Pineiro is a different pitcher now. He’s still a gamble. If he’s a 3 WAR guy at $8 mil annually, he’s a bargain. He also has little history of performing at that level, and no history of repeating it.
I suppose there’s an argument to be made here, given Tuesday’s developments, with the Mets missing on Sheets and Garland, that the Mets should have been more aggressive with Pineiro to buttress a rotation that needs another arm, because fact is, successful teams often start with six starters. I think the context of the later signings, and the dollar amounts, argues more strongly for the pursuit of Pineiro.
How bout an analysis of Orlando Hudson vs Luis Castillo and an answer to this question…
is singing Hudson for 1 year at 6 million and releasing castillo a good idea?
No one else is willing to even give Hudson 4 mil, so 6 would not be a good idea…
re: GMJ for Stokes – Eh, its still not a good trade. A better use of resources would have been dumping Stokes for a minor league body and signing Randy Winn for 1 year/$2M. The best news out of this trade is that Stokes is gone and GMJ has a shot at being released when/if Beltran returns.
re: Molina – Glad the Mets did not sign him. Is he acceptable for 1 year/$4.5M? Sure, but obviously he had no intention of coming to NY unless he received a 2nd guaranteed year, which he is not worth.
re: Pineiro – For that price hes a bargain, IMO. Also I don’t think the Castillo excuse works — Skip Schumaker was just as terrible defensively last year. I don’t see them signing Delgado and I believe Murphy can be at least average at 1B.
re: Niese – I’m all for saving the $5-6M you would pay Jon Garland or Jarrod Washburn and just stick Niese in the rotation; he can pretty much give you what they give you, if not more, for close to league minimum. But I much prefer to sign a high-upside starter like Ben Sheets with Jon Niese as the extra starter awaiting for a roto spot to eventually open up.
Absolutely agree. There’s no way GMJ is better than Randy Winn at this point in their careers.
how about taking the 2 mil they invested in GMJ and ‘over’ paying 1 mil more for Piniero or Garland, signing someone like Sullivan and keeping Stokes at minimum pay.