We live in a sports world that is fascinated with listing things, and the listing of minor-league prospects is near the top of everyone’s favorites. With the newest prospect list to surface Frank Piliere, of fanhouse.com, has listed his Top 100 Prospects. Mets prospects on Piliere’s list include (with analysis):

Jennry Mejia (#23)-The Skinny: Mejia looks like of one of the most exciting pitching prospects the Mets have had in quite some time. He can reach the upper 90s with his fastball and has learned to pitch effectively and more frequently with his secondary pitches. The Mets will try to take it slow with this powerful young arm. We could see him in 2011.

Fernando Martinez (#33)-The Skinny: Martinez might be the victim of the high expectations of New York fans. It’s easy to forget that he is still just 21 years old. Did the Mets rush him? Maybe. Martinez still has the offensive tools to be an impact-type player, so the word here is patience.

Ike Davis (#58)-no analysis.

Let’s just say that everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but this list differs from popular opinions. It is what it is though, and it creates many topics of discussion. One thing I point out is, how in the world is Austin Jackson a better OF prospect than Fernando Martinez.

This morning, we’ll take a look at the major Mets transactions, both those that did happen like the Gary Matthews Jr. trade, and those that did not happen like the Bengie Molina signing, in the last week.

Gary Matthews Jr. and $21 million for Brian Stokes

My first reaction when I got my first email about Gary Matthews Jr. and the Mets was “you gotta be kidding me.”  It’s not a joke, but it’s not that bad.  The Mets are getting so much money back from Anaheim that they’ll only end up paying GMJ $1 million annually.  When the cost of a player is $1 million and Brian Stokes, it’s hard to make a mistake of major magnitude, or make your team much better.

Matthews has been worth -1.3 WAR to the Angels in the last three years.  His UZR numbers suggest that he been worth about -12 runs annually with a glove in his hand.  Apparently, the 35-year old Matthews is an easy player to project, both Chone and Marcel have him hitting about .245/.321/.374, a below average line, with CHONE projecting a -0.8 WAR.  His defense is extremely unlikely to get any better.  The 30-year old Stokes has not pitched as well as his 3.97 ERA in 2009 or his 3.51 ERA in 2008 suggest.  His FIP in ’08 was 4.24 and 4.63 in ’09.  He walked 38 and struck out just 45 in 2009 in 70.1 innings, alarming numbers on both counts.  Stokes has been worth almost exactly replacement level the last two years for the Mets, totalling -0.1.  It’s a fair question whether he was even going to break camp with the Mets.  Bill James, Chone and Marcel all project his as having an ERA of at least 4.40 in 2010, so once again, he’ll be a replacement level guy.

Gary Matthews was getting paid to be a star with the Angels, but played like a fourth or fifth outfielder.  That’s the role he belongs in on the Mets even when Carlos Beltran is rehabbing.  There’s every reason to expect the 28-year old Angel Pagan to outperform the elder newcomer, both at the plate and in the field.  Coming off a 2.8 WAR in season in 2009, CHONE sees Pagan slipping back to 1.5 this year, but at least he can play center field at a level that won’t drive pitchers to drink.  Splitting the difference between Chone and Marcel on Pagan at the plate gives something like .281/.337/.440.

Prospect Impact
I was looking forward to Fernando Martinez battling Pagan for playing time in spring training.  Apparently, the Mets weren’t.  Barring injury, this trade makes it very, very likely that Martinez will begin the season with a return engagement to Buffalo.  I still expect to see Martinez in the big leagues before summer gets too hot.  Either Pagan, who plays hard, will lose a battle with a wall, and GMJ will prove he (again) that he shouldn’t play everyday.  Or Jason Bay’s knee gets cranky.  Or Jeff Francouer strains a cheek muscle from smiling so much.  If Martinez is hitting at AAA, he will get a chance again.
Hey, Eddie Kunz, the Mets just traded a reliever.  Anytime the Mets shed a pitcher, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Jack Egbert, Tobi Stoner, Arturo Lopez, or Jay Marshall should have a little extra motivation to get their running in.

Giants Resign Bengie Molina for 1 yr/$4.5 million

I actually would have been ok had the Mets signed Molina for this deal, but the Mets were absolutely dead-on to not guarantee a second year.  Holding firm for a player who’s just not good, was the right play.  Molina is below average both offensively and defensively, but plays a lot at a difficult position and derives what little value his has from his durability.  The only reason Molina ran a positive WAR the last two years was the strength of the stat’s positional and replacement level adjustments.
I love that he told the New York Post “I don’t understand why they didn’t want to commit to another year, with my numbers and my experience and things like that.”  Well, gee Bengie, maybe the most germane numbers were your OBPs the last three years, in order: .298, .322, .285.  Those numbers stink.  Maybe where he saw experience the Mets saw a dude who would turn 36 in July.

Prospect Impact
Buy Josh Thole stock.  I firmly believe that a platoon of Thole and either Henry Blanco, Chris Coste or Omir Santos would outperform a Molina.  A Thole Blanco pairing is most palatable because of Blanco’s defensive abilities.  Blanco can pick up some extra innings defensively late in games or perhaps against running teams.

Joel Pineiro Signs with the Angels for 2 yrs/ $16 million

As with the Molina signing, these numbers seem fair, but I’m pleased that Pineiro is working elsewhere.  Pineiro’s 2009 was so much markedly better than the rest of career that it’s fair to wonder if his new success is sustainable.  His 4.8 WAR was easily his career best, surpassing his 3.8 WAR with the Mariners in 2003.  Here’s the amazing part: in the intervening five years, he accumulated 6.2 WAR total.  Those who thought that signing Pineiro will properly argue that he was a different and better pitcher in ’09.  He threw his fastball 71% of the team, easily a career high and that it was a worth 23.1 runs above average versus twenty runs below average in ’08 and at least 10 runs below average in every year since ’08.  The better sinker helped Pineiro to a career-high 60.5% groundball rate, where he’d never passed 50% in his seven MLB season.
One problem with Pineiro and the Mets is that the team employs Luis Castillo at second, and is considering bringing back Carlos Delgado to play first.  If these two guys lined up on the rightside of the Mets infield, Pineiro would have a right to file a worker’s comp claim.
The second is that he could turn back into the 04-08 version of himself at any time.

Prospect Impact
Jon Niese, how’s that throwing program coming along?  I firmly believe that Niese has a chance to be a hero for the 2010 Mets.  Nelson Figueroa could be helpful too.  Dillon Gee or Tobi Stoner should be pleased as well.

Good detective work by Mike Harrington, as Friday the Buffalo Bisons announced that they will host the 2012 AAA All-Star Game.

A little history:

The first ever Triple-A All-Star game was also played in Buffalo, NY on July 13, 1988. That game was played before a sellout crowd of 19,500 at then-Pilot Field as the American League affiliates defeated the National League affiliated All-Stars, 2-1.

Earlier this week, the Buffalo Bisons sent out a press release to announce that the team would “Make a Major Event Announcement” at Friday’s Hot Stove Luncheon.  The Luncheon, which is now sold out, will feature Mets GM Omar Minaya and former Bisons manager, and Mets Minor League Field Coordinator Terry Collins.

The Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington thinks he knows what the announcement will be.  Harrington puts the following pieces together 1.  International League Commissioner Randy Mobley will be in town,  2. 2012 will be Coca-Coca Field’s 25th anniversary  and 3. the IL is scheduled to host the 2012 AAA All-Star game after Salt Lake and the PCL take their turn in 2011 to surmise  that the Bisons will announce that they are hosting the 2012 AAA All-Star Game.  From here, it looks like a real good guess and Harrington really does a good job taking the pulse of things like this.

The actual announcement should come between 12:30 and 1 PM on Bisons.com.

Fernando Martinez and Nelson Figueroa each played key roles in the Leones del Escogido’s 13-4 win over the Gigantes del Cibao in game three of DWL Championship, which Gigantes leads 2-1. I believe the championship series is best-of-nine.

Martinez was 5-6 with a double, a three-run homer and five RBI.  Martinez hit his homerun off 24-year old Charlis Burdie a White Sox farmhand who spent most of the year in the South Atlantic League, before a promotion to the Carlina League.

In nine playoff games, Martinez is hitting .345/.333/.621.  Four of his ten hits have gone for extra bases, but he’s still looking for his first walk, which combined with one sacrifice fly lowers his OBP below his AVG.  Don’t forget, Martinez, coming off of knee surgery, struggled in 14 games in the DWL regular season, hitting a paltry hit .191/.264/.213 in 47 AB.

Add his playoff work to his regular season and his line is .250/.289/.368 in 76 AB.

Figueroa meanwhile held Gigantes to one run on six hits in 6.2 innings with six strikeouts.

Ideally the Mets would loved to pencil in Fernando Martinez as the replacement for the injured Carlos Beltran this upcoming season. Ideally the Mets would have loved to have played Fernando Martinez everyday in the meaningless second half of last season. Ideally the Mets would love Fernando Martinez to just stay healthy for one entire season. Oh if we lived in a perfect world.

To say the short career of the 21-year old Martinez has been rocky thus far is an understatement. He missed time in 2006 with a bone bruise in his hand and a knee sprain; in 2007 with a broken hamate bone in his right hand; in 2008 with recurring trouble with his right hamstring; and in 2009 his season ended in July with right knee surgery. This is not the script Omar Minaya was hoping for after signing Martinez to a $1.4M signing bonus in 2005.

With all of that being said, we have to remember Martinez is just 21, and despite his injuries, his bat still makes him an elite OF prospect. We have to understand he played in High A at 17, AA at 18, AAA and MLB at the age of 20. That is a remarkable ascension for a kid learning to play the game of baseball and dealing with a number of injuries. Martinez oozes the word “potential”. His plus power and raw hitting ability are the reasons for optimism and hope for the Mets organization. While his injuries have been the main storyline of his career, swings like this make fans, the front office, coaches, and scouts remember what Fernando Martinez can become.

For fans who have ridden off Martinez, let’s compare the minor-league careers #’s of Martinez and, the highly touted Phillies prospect, Dominic Brown:

Brown is one year older than Martinez, and still has not taken a single swing in AAA, much less the big leagues. Last season Brown played in the Florida State league at the age of 20, the same league Martinez played in as a 17 year old. Their career #’s are eerily similar. Brown is considered a top 20 overall prospect in the minor-leagues.

There are still scouts who view Martinez as an elite OF prospect, projectprospect.com’s Adam Foster says Martinez is “comfortably” a top 25 overall prospect, and there are probably some scouts who are starting to doubt if he will ever live up to the hype. Does Martinez deserve the skepticism, yes, he has showed glimpses of greatness, but injuries have slowed down his development. Injury prone is a label that will follow Martinez until he proves his skeptics otherwise.

Here’s another taste of what Martinez can do. Let’s hope for Mets fans, that 2010 will be the year Martinez stays healthy and turns potential into reality.

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come this year, as Martinez goes 5-6 with a double, a 2-run homerun, and 5 rbi’s, to lead Escogido to a Dominican Winter League playoff win over Gigantes 13-4.

I meant to link this last week, but forgot.  So anyway, Mike Newman of Scoutingthesally.com and Adam Foster of Project Prospect did a joint chat together.  Their answers included opinions about Jon Niese, Francisco Pena, Alonzo Harris and the Mets system in general, but I wanted to excerpt from their Jenrry Mejia Q&A:

[Comment From MikeMike: ] Was Jenrry Mejia a max effort pitcher in the AFL and do you think he can become a frontline starter.

….

8:45

Adam Foster: He has max-effort arm action. His windup is really calm, then he fires through. That makes him really deceptive and some guys pull off his kind of delivery as starters. But I don’t think he will. He’s arm action is inconsistent. That’s why he has trouble throwing strikes. He’s someone who has probably gotten more hype than he deserves this offseason. The raw stuff is there, but I don’t see a frontline starter. Tuesday January 12, 2010 8:45 Adam Foster

8:45	Mike Newman: Durability seems to be the biggest issue with Mejia.   You obviously give a player of his talent every opportunity to stick in the rotation, but I believe he will wind up a closer long term based on conversations I’ve had with people who have some ties to the Mets organization.

Adam really nails this one. Mejia’s so nice and easy at the start of his motion that hitters are caught off-balance by his heat.  And his arm action has been inconsistent.

I don’t buy Mike’s point about durability being Mejia’s biggest issue.  Mejia had a finger problem this year in his second full season, but has had two largely healthy seasons in the US in ’08 and’09.  For me, his biggest issues remain: repeating his delivery, improving his command and developing his off-speed stuff.  That’s a pretty serious list, and I think illustrates Adam’s point that Mejia has received an awful lot of hype this off-season.

You can pre-order Project Prospect’s Digital Prospect Guide here.