On this Martin Luther King Day, I spent a little time reminiscing about my visit to  the National Civil Rights Museum in Memphis in the summer of 2007.  If you’ve never been, and find yourself in Memphis, it’s an absolute must.

The Museum has two buildings, the first includes the wing in the Lorraine motel where Martin Luther King Jr. was staying before he was assassinated, and second is built around the building across the street from which James Earl Ray fired the fatal shots.  The rooms where King and Ray stayed and the bathroom from which Ray shot have been reconstructed.  A visitor can look across to street to see what Ray saw.  A concrete slab marks the spot on the Lorraine’s balcony stained by King’s blood. It was very moving, jarring almost.

It’s amazing to me how much of Dr. King’s wisdom still rings true.

Thinking about the recent tragedy in Haiti?  Dr. King wasn’t specifically, when he declared, “Life’s most persistent and urgent question is, ‘What are you doing for others?’ but he could have been.

Scared anew by the foiled terrorist attack on a plane bound for Detroit on Christmas day?  Dr. King reminds us how to treat our foes.

“Have we not come to such an impasse in the modern world that we must love our enemies – or else? The chain reaction of evil – hate begetting hate, wars producing more wars – must be broken, or else we shall be plunged into the dark abyss of annihilation.”

If you’re looking for more, this is a nice archive of some of Dr. King’s quotes.

Carlos Beltran’s statement Thursday, as reported by Matt Cerrone:

“I am totally surprised by the reaction to my recent knee surgery.  Any accusations that I ignored or defied the team’s wishes are simply false.  I also spoke to Omar Minaya about the surgery on Tuesday.  He did not ask me to wait, or to get another doctor’s opinion.  He just wished me well. No one from team raised any issue until Wednesday, after I was already in surgery.  I do not know what else I could have done. The most important thing here is that the surgery was a total success and I expect to be back on the field playing the game I love sooner rather than later.”

Why didn’t Omar Minaya talk to reporters instead of John Ricco? Why didn’t Jerry Manuel know anything?  Or John Ricco.  Why does this feel like a really bad beginning to 2010? Why did the Mets choose to pick a public fight with Beltran, their best position player and Boras in the first place?

Enough.  Lets go back to prospect-dom.

The Sports Illustrated headline for the story by Jon Heyman reads, “Mets CF Beltran undergoes minor knee surgery.” The problem is for Beltran and the Mets there is no such thing as minor surgery.

The Mets entire official statement, released just before 10 PM ET Wednesday night reads:

Mets centerfielder Carlos Beltran had worsening of osteoarthritis of the right knee during the offseason.  He had not been experiencing pain following the conclusion of the season and into his early offseason conditioning. The symptoms returned to the point where pre-spring training conditioning became too painful.

He elected to undergo arthroscopic clean out of the arthritic area of his knee by Beltran’s personal physician Dr. Richard Steadman today in Colorado.  He is anticipated to return to baseball activities in 12 weeks.

Emphasis added.

If the language of the last sentence is correct, and Beltran won’t return to baseball activities for 12 weeks, he should be expected to miss most of April.  Twelve weeks from today is Thursday, April 8, when the Mets are scheduled to play the Florida Marlins in the third game of the regular season. Lets say Beltran returns to baseball activities then, and starts chasing flyballs and swinging in the cage.  He would be at least a few weeks out from actually suiting up for the Mets.  Even if Beltran recovers quickly, he’d still likely miss of April.  Considering that this is now a recurring problem, it would behoove the Mets and Beltran to be patient and ensure a full recovery to avoid a repeat incidence.

The AP story extensively quotes Beltran’s agent Scott Boras, but no Mets official.   There apparently is some question about whether Dr. David Altcheck, the Mets team doctor had the authority to green-light the surgery.

Boras, as quoted by the AP:

“Since the beginning of November, he was feeling discomfort and pain,” Boras said. “They found some fragments in there that had to be removed.”

That’s not damning, but this Jerry Manuel quote as transcribed by Marty Noble is:

Manager Jerry Manuel, contacted at his home in Sacramento, said he had learned of not only the surgery but of the need for it Wednesday night. “I’m sitting down now with a pen and pad, trying to figure some things out,” he said. Manuel intends to speak with Beltran and Minaya soon.

Were Beltran and Boras too secretive?  Should the Mets be entitled to know if one of their stars, one who missed half the 2009 season, has been in pain for the last two months?  Under normal circumstances, players are responsible for getting themselves in shape for spring training.  I would hardly expect that Beltran emails his workout regimen to Manuel on a daily basis.  However, the Mets plans for 2010, and actions thus far in the off-season clearly revolved around Beltran.  If something’s wrong, doesn’t he owe it to the team to communicate that?

On the other hand, I can construct a scenario where Boras and Beltran followed the best medical advice at the time, but under this scenario, the Mets should have known what was going on.  Upon feeling pain in November, Beltran goes to see Dr. Steadman.  Dr. Steadman advises against surgery, with the hope that the knee will recover on its own.  A similar consultation goes down in December.  In January, with Beltran failing to hearl, or still in pain, Steadman advises he undergo surgery.   However, Boras’ statement only indicates that Beltran had had discomfort since November, not that he saw a doctor at that time.  There are at least two problems here:  1.  If Beltran had a knee problem in November and didn’t tell anyone, and 2. did go to the doctor and didn’t tell the Mets.  Both 1 and 2 should be patently unacceptable.

Don’t forget that Beltran hit the Mets DL on June 22nd, when the team was 34-33.  When he returned on September 8, the team was 62-75.  Of course, Jose Reyes, Johan Santana, Carlos Delgado and David Wright missed time in the interim when the Mets were 28-42, but Beltran was gone the whole time.

Maybe the only good news that comes out of this is that the Mets will be so busy answering Beltran questions that they’ll forget to sign Bengie Molina.

Baseball America recently handed out Draft Report Card grades for all MLB teams from 2005-2008. According to BA’s Jim Callis, the grades are solely on the quality of the draftees signed, and not on the number of picks added/lost through free-agent compensation, the amount of money spent, whom the players may have been traded for or unsigned players who became prominent.
The grading scale is:
A=4
B=3
C=2
D=1
F=0
+=.5

Here are the NL East grades:

The only thing I can think of for Mets fans is EPIC FAIL… The Mets ranked 25th out of 30 overall and 14th out of 16 in the NL. The issue of not drafting overslot has contributed to this poor showing, but this is a direct reflection on the scouting and player development departments. Have the Mets had good prospects, yes. Have the Mets developed some lower profile prospects, yes. So it is not a total disaster.

The fact that we are last in the NL East in this particular area, is telling to the state of the farm system and the state of the current Mets 40-man roster. Only Jose Reyes, David Wright, Jon Niese, Daniel Murphy, Mike Pelfrey, Bobby Parnell, Josh Thole, Eddie Kunz, Tobi Stoner, Shawn Bowman, Fernando Martinez, and Nick Evans have been either drafted or signed originally by the Mets organization (Angel Pagan was drafted by the Mets, but was then sold to the Cubs in 2006 where he later was called up). That is 12 out of 40 (30%), of which only Reyes, Wright, Murphy, Pelfrey, and Parnell have been major contributors. That would be 5 out of 40 (12.5%). This is a major reason for the annual need to sign high profile free agents, the lack of developing ML caliber players within the farm system. With that being said, I believe the current state of the farm is not as bad as it may seem. With Mejia, Martinez, Davis, Holt, Flores, Thole, Niese, Havens, and others, the farm is progressing, albeit slowly, but progressing nonetheless.

The guy on the right did steroids?  Really?

He’s still a Hall-of-Famer.  He was before Monday, and remains so now.

Part of prospect ranking time for me, is not just reviewing and analyzing the players, but instead also taking the opportunity to test my own assumptions. One of the things I want to be especially careful about this year, is adjusting a player’s performance by the league’s offensive levels in addition to a player’s own age. Also, I hadn’t seen a chart on the Internet for the average offense of level for each minor league. So, here it is for each league in which the Mets have an affiliate.

I had seen it written and accepted as a baseball truism that batting average on balls in play (BABIP) declines up the ladder towards the big leagues, because 1. The players are better defensively and 2. Fields are better. So, does BABIP drop as players move up the ladder? Not much. It is true, that the MLB BABIP is lower than any minor league level except the GCL.  On the other hand, the batting average on balls in play is essentially identical for three of the four full season leagues where the Mets have an affiliate, the AAA International League, the double-A Eastern League, and the Advanced-A Florida State League. Only the South Atlantic league, and the offense friendly Appalachian league standout as having similar (.313 BABIP) high marks.

The area where the trend is clearest, is in homerun rate. Take a look at the picture on the right. Each level, from rookie ball to the big leagues, hits home runs at a higher rate than the level beneath it, with one exception-the Appalachian League. The explanation for this is simple, older players inhabit the higher level leagues and older players are stronger and more experienced at picking pitches to drive.

A few other things that I think are interesting. Big leaguers strike out less than minor leaguers, despite facing the best pitchers in the world. The only hitters that struck out less than big-league hitters in 2009 were double-A Eastern league hitters, who are also the only ones to draw walks at a higher rate. Does this lend credence to the argument that AA is better preparation for the big leagues than AAA?

John Sickels has his Mets Top Twenty prospects up at his www.minorleagueball.com site.

1) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade B+
2) Wilmer Flores, SS, Grade B+
3) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+
4) Ike Davis, 1B, Grade B
5) Jon Niese, LHP, Grade B
6) Reese Havens, SS, Grade B-

7) Kyle Allen, RHP, Grade B-

Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade B-
9) Brad Holt, RHP, Grade C+
10) Ruben Tejada, INF, Grade C+
11) Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, Grade C+
12) Eric Niesen, LHP, Grade C+
13) Jefry Marte, 3B, Grade C+
14) Cesar Puello, OF, Grade C
15) Josh Thole, C, Grade C
16) Juan Urbina, LHP, Grade C
17) Steve Matz, LHP, Grade C
18) Brent Rustich, RHP, Grade C
19) Tobi Stoner, RHP, Grade C
20) Dillon Gee, RHP, Grade C

He writes that he thinks people will be “surprised” by his ranking for both Allen and Familia. I am, but only mildly.

I am more surprised by Josh Thole at #15.