Could this be the opportunity for Ike Davis to be the Mets starting 1st baseman? Not for now, at least. With the news coming down today that Mets starting 1st baseman Daniel Murphy has a grade 1 MCL sprain of his right knee, questions of who will be the opening day starter are floating around. Murphy is supposed to be sidelined for 2-6 weeks, although the injury is not considered too serious. Mets GM Omar Minaya says Mike Jacobs is the front-runner to start the season at 1st base. Minaya also says that a prolonged absence for Murphy could prompt the organization to bring back prospect Ike Davis from minor league camp, but he will start the season in AAA regardless. Frank Catalanotto, Chris Carter, and Jacobs have been battling in camp for the final bench spot, all have 1st base experience. Last season Jacobs, who was released by the Royals in December, struggled in 434 at-bats, hitting .229 with 19 homeruns and 61 RBI.

1st base candidates spring training stats:
Murphy- .196 (10-51) 2HR, 8RBI, 3BB, 9K .228OBP .314SLG
Jacobs- .194 (7-36) 2 2B, 2HR, 4RBI, 7BB, 7K .326OBP .417SLG
Carter- .407 (11-27) 2 2B, 4HR, 9RBI, 2BB, 3K .448OBP .926SLG
Catalanotto- .214 (6-28) 3 2B, 1 3B, 1HR, 7RBI, 3BB, 4K .324OBP .500SLG
Davis- .480 (12-25) 3 2B, 3 HR, 10RBI, 3BB, 8K .536OBP .960SLG

At least for the short term, Jacobs is the logical choice. Jacobs has the most experience, and is familiar with the NL East. Davis and Carter have clearly had the most impressive spring performances.  I believe that everyone in the organization realizes that Davis will be the long-term solution at 1st base. If Davis gets off to a good start, and Jacobs struggles, we could see Davis on the fast track to Queens. No one ever wants to see a guy injured, especially the hard working Murphy, but this maybe a blessing in disguise, opening the door to see Ike Davis in a Met uniform.

Working in the Game
At BA, Josh Leventhal does a nice piece on working for peanuts in minor league baseball.  The message: to hold a job, sell.  It’s simple. 

Waiver Work
Losing Chris Coste to the Nationals on waivers should not matter to the Mets’ 2010 record.  Similarly, Manny Acosta is extremely highly unlikely to be the difference between a playoff spot, and golf vacations for the Mets in October and pink slips in the front office.  All the same, adding a 28-year old middle reliever to provide depth is a worthwhile enough exercise and at the very least, he’ll help the Buffalo Bisons, where he’s been assigned, chase the president’s trophy in the International League. 

Spring Games
In AAA, Ike Davis (3-4, 2 2B) and Nick Evans (3-5, 3B) had big days against the Cardinals’ affiliate in a 9-9 tie.  Some guy named Yohan also threw. 
In A-Ball, the Gnats won again behind 3B Jefry Marte who had a double and a grand slam, and is having a monster spring.  Armando Rodriguez, who I’m eager to see in Savannah, settled in after a rocky first to hold the Cardinals to one run through four innings. 

Jonathan Mayo updates his “Mets’ 10 Prospects to watch in 2010.”  He drops Eddie Kunz, Jefry Marte and Bobby Parnell from last year’s list to replace them with Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Ruben Tejada and Josh Thole.  All reasonable stuff. 

I talked to Matt Cerrone about Wilmer Flores and Jordany Valdespin in a video feature for SNY.tv.  Once again, even if you don’t like what I have to say, enjoy the video of the youngsters. 

Joaquin Roca uses fancy organizational strategy jargon to point out that a baseball team’s manager and GM might not have the same goals and relates the decision-making process to Jenrry Mejia.  That’s not news, or at least, I don’t think it is.  The more interesting conversation happens in the comments section about making middle-managers think more strategically log-term. The obvious problem in the baseball context is that the middle-managers, the Managers themselves, 1. have little job security which produces 2. no incentive to think beyond the current contract and 3. little practice in long-term strategic planning. 

Bats/Throws: L/R

Height/Weight: 6’1”, 190 lbs

Acquired: 13^th Rd 2005

Born: 10/28/86 (Breese, IL)

2009 Rank: 16

Why Ranked Here: Josh Thole has hit, and done so prolifically wherever he’s played.

As Mets fans know, Thole, who will be 23 in 2010, has an offensive game all about contact and controlling the strike zone.  He chokes up all the time, and treats every pitch as though he has two strikes on him already in the at-bat.  He’s struck out less than 10% of the time in each league he’s played in, including the big leagues, in the last two years.  That’s a pretty special rate – only nine MLB hitters who picked up enough AB to qualify for the batting title struck out less than 10% of the time.  While not striking out very much is laudable, it’s no guarantee of big league success.  Among the ten toughest hitters to strike out in 2009 were some very good offensive players, like Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia, Carlos Lee and Alberto Callaspo, some who produced at a rate closer to league average (as measured by wOBA) like Miguel Tejada and Yadier Molina, and some who were simply bad, including David Eckstein and Yuniesky Betancourt.

Contact is just one of the two pillars of Thole’s offensive game, joined with strong plate discipline.  He walked in almost 10% of his plate appearances in AA and almost 13.5% in Venezuela.

As impressive as Thole’s contact rate has been and his minor league walk rates were, there is a gaping hole his offensive game: power.  In his last 250 games played in America – in A+, AA, the AFL and MLB, Thole hit eight home runs.  His line drive stroke has produced doubles, over 25 each of his last two years, but Major League pitchers will challenge him over and over again if they don’t think he will beat them deep.

In addition to power, there are major questions about his defensive abilities behind the dish.  Thole did not begin catching full-time until the spring of 2008, and essentially had to learn the position from scratch.  Reviews of his work behind the dish this summer in Binghamton ranged from negative to scathing.  One classic quote from a rival manager who saw him repeatedly points out exactly what’s going on, “He can flat out hit, that’s the best thing I can say about his defense… He catches the ball ok.  He receives ok.” but “his arm’s not what you desire from a big league catcher.”  Thole is by all accounts a hard worker who has improved defensively, but his arm could simply always be a liability behind the plate.  The Mets were not ready to hand Thole the starting catcher’s job in camp based on concerns about his defense.

2009: In 2009, he hit .328/.395/.422 in 103 games in AA with Binghamton, .321/.356/.396 in 17 games with the Mets and then went down to Venezuela where he owned the Winter League to a .381/.470/.568 tune in 44 games before leaving early to prepare for Spring Training. He was second in both the Eastern league and the Venezuelan Winter league in batting average and led the VWL in OBP while placing third in the EL in the category.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Thole will put in the work to become passable, if never an above average catcher defensively, but that combined with his offensive gifts will make him a very valuable catcher and a two-time All-Star.

Debbie Downer Says: The Mets won’t trust Thole to catch everyday and he joins the exclusive ranks of the Back Up Catcher’s Club.

Projected 2010 Start: AAA Buffalo

MLB Arrival: Thole will spend most of 2011 as the Mets starting catcher, but it is an open question how much he gets to play with the big boys in 2010.  If Rod Barajas get injured or the Mets get tired of his sub .300 OBP, or the Mets fall out of contention, Thole could spend much of the second-half at Citi Field.

I talked to Matt Cerrone about Jefry Marte and Lucas Duda.  Even if you don’t like what I have to say, there’s cool video of both players in there.

Yesterday, I wrote my first game recap for the Savannah Sand Gnats.  A few highlights: Jefry Marte had a couple of knocks, including a double.
Juan Urbina, who’s not going to make the Gnats threw, and struggled with his command.  He hit 90 regularly times.  Apparently K-Rod is watching over Juan and his minor league buddies.

Bobby Ojeda thinks Jenrry Mejia belongs in the minors, not the bullpen.

I can’t tell if this article at NY Baseball Digest is satire or serious.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6’3”/175 lbs

Acquired: NDFA

Born: 8/6/91 (Valencia, VZ)

2009 Rank: 2

Why Ranked Here: Flores is blessed with excellent hand eye coordination, which helps him make lots and lots of contact at the plate.  A Mets official told me that for a teenager playing the SAL, his strikeout percentage was historically good, but unfortunately, I don’t have their full database at my disposal here.  He hit for power in 2008 in the Appalachian League with an extra-base hit in 9% of his PA, but that rate was nearly halved to 4.7% in 2009 as 17-year old in the SAL.  However his big body and room for growth and strength give hope that he will continue to add power as he ages and end up with above average big league power.

One problem for Flores is that he’s very unlikely to stay at shortstop. Already a below-average runner, he’s not going to get any faster and below average runners can’t cover the ground demanded of MLB SS.  His arm is strong enough to play third, but he’ll have to learn the footwork for the hot corner. How far down the defensive spectrum Flores eventually moves will have a lot to say about his long-term value.  The Mets were concerned about Flores’ shape and eating habits and made some changes to help the teen learn good habits that helped result in a much healthier and stronger ballplayer as the 2009 season progressed.

2009: Flores seemed to be figuring things out in June (.309/.340/.426/) and July (.282/.310/.364) before running out of gas in August (.188/.245/.198).

Dr. Pangloss Says: He’s going to hit.  So, lets say he sticks at third base and he becomes an All-Star with the bat there.

Debbie Downer Says: He lands at 1B and doesn’t hit for enough power to be an impact guy over there.

Projected 2010 Start: Savannah

MLB Arrival: September 2013

The Mets have been so impressed by 20-year old Jenrry Mejia in Spring Training that they are planning to make him a middle reliever to begin the season in the bullpen.  But how impressive has Mejia’s spring actually been?

Mejia has faced 40 unique hitters over 43 plate appearances in spring training.

Here are their AB by level in ’09:

On Monday and Tuesday, the Mets wanted to test Mejia to see if he could work in back-to-back games as he might if he were in the Major League Bullpen. Prior to Monday, here’s the breakdown of AB by level from ’09:

Let me make that point clear in case the previous two tables didn’t. On Monday, the Mets prepared their top pitching prospect to become a reliever primarily on his performance in 35 Spring Training plate appearances against players who had 8,830 at bats in the minor leagues in 2009 and 3,897 in the big leagues!  The Mets decided Mejia was ready for a big league bullpen based largely on his performance against AA caliber batters.

Yes, Mejia’s fastball is electric. His power changeup and curveball are tantalizing.   But, prior to Monday, when he was facing one of his final tests of his bullpen mettle, he had faced exactly SIX batters who had 300 or more MLB AB in ’09. Six. Anything can happen over six AB.  As decision-making processes go, isn’t this the equivalent of going to the beach in Far Rockaway, wading knee deep into the ocean, and deciding that since you not only didn’t die, but feel good, you’re going to swim to Spain?

Mejia has seen something which approximates an MLB lineup once.  Against Atlanta, he set down Yunel Escobar, Matt Diaz and Nate McLouth in order.  For the complete-ists, on March 8, he retired Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla in consecutive AB, but two batters at the beginning of spring training does not a lineup, or even an inning, make.

It’s true that Mejia has handled the more advanced hitters who have faced him.  Players who saw any MLB time in ’09 are a combined 1-for-22 (.045) against Mejia with seven strikeouts, a walk and ten ground ball outs.  MLB regulars, generously defined as those who had 300 or more AB, are a collective 0-for-10 against Mejia with just one strikeout.  The “real” big leaguers might not have the bat speed to hurt Mejia yet, but at least like the minor leaguers and fringe guys, they can still put a bat on his stuff.

Want a good reason not to take any of this too seriously?  The players who didn’t play a day in the big leagues in ’09 are hitting .316 (6 H/19 AB) against Mejia this spring.

What does this all mean?  Nothing really, and I think that’s the point.   Mejia’s early success came against players who are unlikely to be in the big leagues on Opening Day.  He’s set down the few legitimate Major Leaguers he’s seen.  He’ll probably face another 15 or so hitters before camp ends, which is another truly meaningless sample.  That the Mets are willing to put Mejia in the MLB bullpen on this performance says more about the team’s decision-making process than anything else.

And around the web, the national guys started nailing the Mets on Wednesday.

At ESPN.com Keith Law is blunt in his discussion about the Mets plan to move Mejia to the ‘pen:

“I hate it. He’s a raw, high-upside arm with the weapons to be a  starter in the long term, if he’s given time to improve his command and consistency on his change and curve. Instead they’re cutting off that upside for a quick fix in the pen. By the way, promoting prospects who aren’t ready is a hallmark of GMs in fear for their jobs.“

Baseball America’s Jim Callis made the same point in his ESPN Chat:

Peter (NY)

Jim, What is your opinion on how the Mets are handling Meija’s development? If he has a chance to be a legitimate top of the rotation pitcher, arent they hurting his development by rushing him to the majors and developing him as a late inning 1 or 2 pitch reliever?

Jim Callis

(2:10 PM)

The Mets’ front office is in win-now/save-our-jobs mode. I would have sent him to Double-A as a starter to begin the season.

There’s an interesting point here about the divergence between the Mets fans and decision-makers on this one.  Fans, at least judging by what I read, are on the whole opposed to putting Mejia in the ‘pen to start the year.  Fans have a longterm relationship with the Mets.  Most grew up Mets fans and will be Mets fans after 2010, in 2011, 2012 and beyond.  The Mets decision-makers, operating on essentially a one-year win-or-else mandate from ownership rationally cannot afford that long time horizon that Mets fans enjoy.  Strange, but true.

**If any readers are interested in playing with this data further, email me.  I have all of this lovely information in a handy spreadsheet with each player’s OPS by level that I didn’t even discuss in this post.**