Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6’4”/200lbs

Acquired: Supplemental 1^st Rd ’08 , 33^rd Overall (UNC Wilmington)

Born: 10/13/86 (Albemarle, NC)

2009 Rank: 3

Why Ranked Here: Holt drops four spots because he simply didn’t pitch that well in AA.  He stays in the top 10 because he has a great pitcher’s frame and had shown a plus-plus fastball in the past although it lost a little life in ’09.  Beyond the results, his velocity dipped from 94-95 in the NYP in ’08 to 92-93 when I saw him in Binghamton in early July.  To be fair, at that time, Holt was coming off an injury to his right ankle, but if he wasn’t fully healthy, he should not have been pitching.  (Where have we heard this before Mets fans?) Without his bigger velocity, he could no longer work up in the zone with his heater, and batters hurt him when he tried.  His curveball had made some progress, but was still a below average MLB offering.  His changeup also remained below average.

Holt survived, and thrived at the lower levels on his velocity.  However, to have success at AA and eventually the big leagues as a starter, Holt must learn to work hitters better.  He simply did not throw his secondary offerings enough to keep even AA hitters off-balance.  However, when he used the pitches in unpredictable sequences, that is, not on 0-2, or not doubling up on an offering, he was much more effective, offering some modest hope for the future.

2009: Holt’s ’09 got off to an awful start, when he allowed nine runs in 3.2 innings on Opening Night in the FSL, but was absolutely dominant over the next two months in advanced-A.  In his next eight starts at the level, he allowed just seven more runs, fanning 49 and walking just 9 for a brilliant K/BB of 5.4 in his next 39.2 innings.

Holt’s AA time began well enough on June 5^th when he held Connecticut to two hits over 6.1 innings. However, he tweaked his right, push ankle while away from the park after that first start and was not effective at AA for the rest of the year. After ten more starts in which he struggled from late June to the middle of August, the Mets shut Holt down because his ankle was once again causing problems.  He wasn’t particularly unlucky, he was just getting hit hard: his BABIP was a reasonable .297, but his groundball percentage was an anemic 37.3%.  To my eyes, his conditioning also took  a hit from the injury.

Dr. Pangloss Says: #3 starter

Debbie Downer Says: If Holt’s heater doesn’t pick back up this spring, he’s just another middle reliever.

Projected 2010 Start: Binghamton Rotation, with Buffalo a possibility too

MLB Arrival: Holt clearly pitched his way out of the Mets plans for the 2010 season, so will need a strong 2010 to catapult himself back into the  mix in 2011 or even 2012.

At Amazin’ Avenue Sam Page has written the definitive piece on the Jenrry Mejia to the bullpen frenzy combining both analysis of the baseball and the media coverage.  Go read the thing.  Report back in a few.

Our good friend Big Baby is properly critical of Jerry Manuel for his comment that he “would like to see [Mejia] stay with the hard stuff.  He has enough.  If he can command that [cutter], he has enough.”  As Sagiv makes plain in his usually delicate language, the point of spring training to actually work on developing pitches. Maybe Manuel is being sloppy linguistically, but the quote still makes little sense.

On Tuesday’s SNY broadcast, Gary Cohen off-handedly remarked that Mejia’s early success, based on a hot fastball, reminded him of Bobby Parnell a year ago.  Parnell’s effectiveness diminished over the course of the year before his disastrous turn starting.  Is this really the path for Mejia?

Through it all, Mejia continued to pitch well – better than I’ve ever seen him before.  He worked in the mid-90s on Tuesday and even flashed a real strong breaking ball.  Barring an injury, or some other roster weirdness, I would place money that he’ll head north with the big boys.

I wonder, if to some degree, the fantastic news about Jose Reyes’ return helps make the case for Mejia as a Met.  Lets be realistic.  Without Reyes and Beltran in the lineup for at least April, the Mets were not a playoff team.  Putting Mejia in the ‘pen for a 75-80 win team was sheer folly.  Reyes’ earlier return bumps up the Mets playoff chances by a fairly significant amount because of the massive upgrade a healthy Reyes provides over Alex Cora or Ruben Tejada.

If the Mets are thinking like a playoff team, every win and every run is indeed valuable.  And yet, how many runs is Mejia worth in the bullpen?  Ten, maybe fifteen?  This is one win, maybe a little more.  Divisions and playoff berths, as Mets fans know, have been decided on such margins.

Longterm implications aside, there could be more immediate payoffs to sending Mejia down to the minors to start.  Lets assume that the Mets will need to go seven starters deep, because every team does so.  Everyone loves Mejia.  What happens in July or earlier when the Mets need a starter and Mejia is a one inning specialist?  Would you rather it have been Mejia, refining his craft in Binghamton or Buffalo or Tobi Stoner or Dillon Gee or this season’s Lance Broadway or Livan Hernandez?  How about for the next six starts?  Yeah.  So again, even in 2010, Mejia’s greater impact could well be in the rotation?

That Davis Kid
The Mets sent Ike Davis back to Minor League Camp Tuesday, but his quote, as transcribed by David Waldstein is on point:

“To know I’m not that far behind is pretty comforting,” he said. “You
can see the goal in sight. I’m not there yet, but to see it is a pretty
cool feeling.”

Davis should man first for what’s shaping up to be a very solid Bisons squad.

Bats/Throws: L/R

Height/Weight: 6’3”/210 lbs

Acquired: 3^rd Rd 2008 (Azusa Pacific)

Born: 8/7/87 (Ripon, CA)

2009 Rank: 23

Why Ranked Here: Nieuwenhuis has a big league body, defensive chops in center and a well-rounded offensive game with some speed, patience and power.   Much of his development in 2009 had to do with becoming more comfortable pulling the ball.  In the early going, Nieuwenhuis began the season with St. Lucie with good opposite field power, but had trouble when pitchers worked him inside.  By August, he was punishing them for coming inside to him, turning outs into basehits.  Nieuwenhuis playd CF and RF for Brooklyn in ’08, but patrolled CF exclusively for St. Lucie in ’09. He has the speed and range to handle center now, but if he fills out as he ages, he will be forced to the corner.

2009: Kirk Nieuwenhuis was in the midst of a solid, but unspectacular campaign in the Florida State League in 2009 as July came to a close.  Then, in the weeks leading up to his 22^nd birthday in the first week of August, he ripped off a 15-game hitting streak.  That led into a sensational August when he was one of the hottest hitters in all of the minor leagues raking to a .345/.406/.647 line with six homers in 27 games.  In August, 21 of his 40 hits went for extra bases.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Niewenhuis stays in CF, and makes a few All-Star games.

Debbie Downer Says: With a K-rate above 20% in both the NYP and FSL, Nieuwenhuis won’t ever hit more than .270 in the big leagues.  If he can’t play center everyday, he’s nothing more than a fourth OF.

Projected 2010 Start: Binghamton CF, looking to prove that his extraordinary conclusion to the ’09 season was no fluke.

MLB Arrival: 2011

Nieuwenhuis photo courtesy Jim Donten

Joe Posnanski does a Poz-style post comparing prospect lists.  He doesn’t actually mention the Mets by name, at all, but he uses the Nationals relatively gentle handling of Stephen Strasburg as compared with the Indians “abuse” of a 17-year-old Bob Feller to argue for a more aggressive handling of prospects.  And Mets fans groaned.

Bob Feller debuted over 73 years ago, on July 19, 1936.  It’s just a different game.  I’m not suggesting Feller wouldn’t be awesome today, but the game on the field is pretty different, no?
I love reading Posnanski, but sometimes his stuff just goes on and on, usually in a good way, but how in the world does one process all of this information now?

My favorite part of this Ted Berg post is not that he’s coming to hang out in Savannah, although I am excited for that too, but that he goes all free-association with the word Houston to link to Beck.  My man-crush on Beck predates my being a man.  Easily.

If this Chocolate Strawberry rap from 1987 doesn’t make you smile, you might actually not be human, or a Mets fan.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6’3”/190 lbs

Acquired: NDFA

Born: 10/10/89 (Santo Domingo, DR)

2009 Rank: 27

Why Ranked Here: Fastball and build.  At the end of the ’09 season, Familia was sitting  in the low 90s with his fastball, up a few ticks from ’08 and by spring training 2010, he was 92-94, touching 96.  That, my friends, is plus velocity.  Combine that plus velocity with some movement from his big frame, and you have the makings of a very nice pitching prospect.  Familia’s breaking ball is a power slurve in the lowers 80s that he must continue to refine and his changeup is his distant third pitch.  He started using a two-seamer in ’09 as well, although it too, was a below average offering.

2009: Familia’s 2.69 ERA was third in the SAL, and his 1.16 WHIP was fourth.  Moreover, his improvement over the course of the season i is reflected in his strikeout numbers: before the All-Star break he fanned 6.51 batters per nine innings, but that jumped all the way to 8.38 whiffs per nine in his final 10 starts of the year.

Dr. Pangloss Says: #3 starter or bullpen beast

Debbie Downer Says: Generic middle reliever unless he figures out a second or third pitch

Projected 2010 Start: St. Lucie Rotation

MLB Arrival: September 2011, or 2012

#10 Reese Havens

Bats/Throws: L/R

Height/Weight: 6’1”/195 lbs

Acquired: 1^st rd 08 (South Carolina)

Born: 10/20/86 (Sullivan Island, SC)

2009 Rank: 6

Why Ranked Here: Havens has the chance to be an above average offensive force at second base.  Havens’ 14 homers led all Mets infielders in 2009 and were good enough for sixth in the FSL, where hitting for power is very difficult.  Havens entered pro ball with a funky swing he had adopted in college where his hands started very low.  He’s given that up for a much simpler swing that has really started to work well for him.  In the video below of his swings from the Arizona Fall League, note how short he has become to the ball.  With his strong forearms, when he squares a ball up, it goes.  Havens also improved his strike zone control in 2009, walking in almost 13% of his plate appearances, while cutting his strikeout rate under 20%.  In the Arizona Fall League, the Mets began playing Reese Havens at second base where his range and arm have a chance to be above average.

2009: Havens finished 2009 with the same batting average (.247) as he had in the NYP the year before, thus, he was the same player.  Ok, that’s a dirty lie.  However, for the second straight season, injuries limited his playing time, as a hamstring injury cost Havens much of June and helped hold him to 97 games played.  It all seemed to come together for Havens in August when he hit .282/.386/.473 with 5 HR.  He finished up the year with a scorching end to the AFL season.

Dr. Pangloss Says: The median number of HR hit by 2B of NL teams last year was 11.5.  Havens has above average power for the position which, combined with his plate discipline will make him an above average contributor at the Keystone.

Debbie Downer Says: The Injury Bug continues to bite Havens and he never finds the fields enough to hold a starting job in the big leagues.  Or his strikeout rate balloons at the upper levels, killing his batting average.

Projected 2010 Start: Binghamton 2B

MLB Arrival: 2011

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 5’11”/165

Acquired: NDFA (7/11/06)

Born: 9/1/89 (Veraguas, Panama)

2009 Rank: 19

Why Ranked Here: Tejada moves up eight spots because he was one of the most pleasant surprises in the Mets system in 2009, more than holding his own in AA at age 19.  Now 20, he’s on the cusp of his MLB debut thanks to Jose Reyes’ thyroid problem.  For Tejada, that’s great, but for the Mets, that’s not.

Tejada made nice adjustments over the course of 2009, eliminating a sizable leg kick (seen in the accompanying picture) that he used to trigger his swing.  By the time he reached the Arizona Fall League in November, his swing was simpler with a much smaller leg kick that looked more like a plant.  He’s stayed with a similar approach this spring.  Given that his offensive game is predicated on contact, any change that allows him to wait longer on a pitch is a good thing.

Despite a strong season at AA, there are still questions about Tejada’s offensive game.  He’s not very strong, and generates very little power.  Tejada hit just five HR in’09, with an extra base hit in just 5.79 % of his plate appearances in AA, which was up from an anemic 4.5% the previous year in the Florida State League.  Moreover, his approach is focused more on putting the ball in play, rather than working deep counts.  As a result, he walked in only 6.7% of his plate appearances at AA.  To be a major force at the plate, he’ll need either to hit for more power with added strength coming as he ages, or a few more walks, or more likely, a little of both.

The saving grace for Tejada is that even if his offensive game doesn’t grow dramatically, he will still have value as a fine defensive shortstop.  Just as has been the case throughout his professional career, Tejada plays a strong shortstop currently with average range and an average arm.  He’s more comfortable going to his left up the middle than he is going into the hole for a backhand.

The ability to play shortstop is absolutely central to Tejada’s value as a prospect.  In 2009 alone, Rafael Fural, Elvis Andrus, Ryan Theriot, Jimmy Rollins, Alexei Ramirez and Stephen Drew were all worth between 2.2 and 3.0 WAR despite below average offensive production on the strength of playing average or better defense at short.

I wrote last week that Tejada should be the Mets starting shortstop while Reyes recuperates.  That really doesn’t move Tejada around on this list.  He’ll make a little contact, but nearly guarantees the Mets below average offensive production, just better than Alex Cora.

2009: Tejada made lots of contact, striking out in fewer than 11% of his plate appearances against older players.

Dr. Pangloss Says: As suggested by reader “Big Baby”: Placido Polanco

Debbie Downer Says: Anderson Hernandez-type

Projected 2010 Start: MLB

MLB Arrival: April, 2010