Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6’3”/180

Acquired: NDFA 8/6/07

Born: 8/6/91 (Valencia, VZ)

2010 Rank: 6

Why Ranked Here: Wilmer Flores can hit.  He can hit because he has special hands.

He could put the fat part of the bat on nearly anything a-ball pitchers threw him.  For example, he did not draw a single walk or strike out in the first week of the South Atlantic League season.  He was simply swinging at fastballs and turning them into base hits.  As he became more comfortable, he started taking more pitches, and in turn, picking some to drive.  Even as he became more selective, he still rarely struck out: fanning in 12% of his plate appearances in the SAL and 14% in the Florida State League.

He’ll be just 19 to start the 2011 season and will hit for more power as his body and approach mature.

The reason Flores slots in at number three on this list is that projecting his eventual value is difficult because of questions around his defense.  We’ll start with the good: those great hands that he uses to hit?  Well, he takes them to the field with him too where they are soft and dependable.  He has an above average arm for a shortstop.  With his big frame, he doesn’t need to crowhop to get plenty on his delivery.  However, that size creates the problem.  He’s worked hard to improve his mobility, but is a well below average runner and won’t get any faster as he ages.  How many below average runners play shortstop everyday in the big leagues?   One?  Zero? I can’t recall talking to a single person outside the Mets organization who thinks he’ll play shortstop in the big leagues (and I bugged a lot of scouts who came through Savannah in 2010 on this).

So where does he go from shortstop?  Third base is the next logical destination.  His size, hands and arm would be good fits there.  However, third base is all about reactions, and footwork, not Flores’ strenghth.  I’m not saying he can’t do it; he probably could play the position, but I’ve never seen him try it.  If he has to move from third, the outfield is not a good option because he won’t have great range, and then moving him all the way down the defensive spectrum to first would raise the offensive requirements for him so dramatically as to take a major bite out of his value.

Point is, none of this matters, yet.  He’s 19.  I believe in the bat. 

2010: As an 18-year old, Flores was the most consistently dangerous hitter on the Gnats team that won the 2010 First-Half Championship in the South Atlantic League.

It’s mindblowing to me, looking over the numbers that he had a 37/23 K/BB ratio in 66 games.  After playing in the SAL All-Star Game, Flores was promoted to advanced-A St. Lucie where he continued to make contact like it was his job, hitting safely in 16 of his first 17 games.  Actually, it was his job.  However, in the FSL, while hitting .300 as a teenager, his walk rate dipped to an anemic 3.1% after a reasonably healthy 7.5% in Savannah.

Dr. Pangloss Says: He becomes an All-Star 3B

Debbie Downer Says: He becomes a contact oriented/high OBP 1B.  For a guy this young, that’s a huge floor.

Projected 2011 Start: St. Lucie

MLB Arrival: 2012 (cup of coffee).  Seriously in 2013. **

(Amended.)