The chart below compares the Mets Prospect Rankings produced by the major national authorities on things prospecty – Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and Minorleagueball.com.

2008 Prospect Rankings Compared

Analysis:

1. All three authors agree that Fernando Martinez and Wilmer Flores are the best two prospects.   Sickels ranks Flores first, while the other two have Martinez #1.

2. Brad Holt and Jon Niese are the two best pitching prospects on all three lists.

3. Jenry Mejia is the third best pitching prospect and seventh overall on all three lists.

4. All three authors rank Jefry Marte and Reese Havens as the next two position player prospects after Flores and Martinez.  However, different authors rank these two in different orders and in different positions relative to  the rest of the top 10 with Goldstein highest on Marte and Sickels highest on Havens.

5. Bobby Parnell and Eddie Kunz were both consensus Top 10 guys.

Please note that Adam Rubin only ranked 10 Mets officially although he described both Ike Davis and Scott Moviel as being close to the Top 10 in his chat at BA. Similarly, Kevin Goldstein at BP only went to 11, but in an interview he did for this site, he said that Evans was in the #15 range for him.

TH: Josh Thole hit a little and reached base a lot in the FSL and AFL.  My guess is that you’ll say that questions about his defensive ability prevented him from cracking the top 11.  True?

KG: and the fact that he just doesn’t have much juice in his swing.

KG: It’s hard to rank catchers with defensive issues.  They have to be good enough offensively to start, because it’s hard to find backups who aren’t defensively oriented.

TH: Important point.

KG: Yeah, every once in a while I make sense.

TH: I know you’ve only gone through 1/3 of the big league teams, but if you had to take a guess, where would the Mets system rank if you were ranking 1-30?

KG: My gut says somewhere in the middle, maybe a bit below because of depth issues.

TH: That sounds about right, from my myopic view of the baseball world.  Thanks a million for your time

KG: Anytime, and good to see you in Vegas.

TH: Yeah, you too.  Ok, I lied.  I have one more set of questions.  You got 5 more min?

KG: Yup

KG: For you the world, though you are delaying my video game time, as Aquanaut’s Holiday arrived today from Hong Kong.

TH: Oh, well then for your own good, I’ll keep you!

KG: My thumbs thank you.

TH: Dillon Gee.  Ceiling?  Mid range outcome?

KG: Ceiling? solid 4-5 at best, midrange; middle relief.

TH: Awesome.  Thanks again.

KG: You got it.

Following his the release of his list of the Mets Top 11 Prospect List at Baseball Prospectus, I chatted with prospect guru Kevin Goldstein.   Please read his piece first, as our talk is meant as an auxiliary to his posted work.  Our conversation largely focused on those players who were included on his list, although we also covered some of the near misses.  To keep the comment section clean, I’ve cut the interview into six pieces, each focused on a particular player or issue.

TH: Lets do a general question or two first.  Does ranking the Mets system pose any particular challenges versus other systems?

KG: Well, you do have the issue of the top talents are so young, especially Marte and Flores. Obviously, they had great scouting reports coming up as amateurs, and they lived up to, if not exceeded expectations in their pro debut, but there is still a lot of unknowns with them.  Even with a guy like F-mart, you’re always trying to keep the age in mind with reference to what he’s done and what the scouts are telling you.

Then you have additional challenges with the 08 draft guys as Havens was playing hurt and Davis was so highly regarded and then just tanked on such a huge level, so how do I balance six years of amateur info on Davis with what he did (or did not) do in Brooklyn.

TH: Those were the exact challenges I was thinking about.  So you brought up Davis, and we have to talk about him.  He’s one of two guys in your top 11 that I have ranked outside my top 11.  I happily acknowledge his power, but I saw him just look like a mess in Brooklyn this summer.  Is your ranking of him based in large part on his longer amateur pedigree?

KG: Sure.  I have six years of amateur info to go on, and then I have what just happened.  That certainly shouldn’t be discounted, but still, we can’t act like what we saw at ASU was some kind of fluke that is now discounted by 200 something pro at-bats.  Concerned? sure.  Ready to write him off? Hardly.

KG: can I add to that?

TH: Please

KG: I think what we saw was realistically the first time Ike Davis has ever struggled on a baseball field in his life, and players react very differently to it and some bounce back quicker than others from it.

TH: I absolutely agree that his struggles had a feedback loop associated with them and built on themselves.  Does that raise makeup questions for you?

KG: That’s tough.  Makeup is a funny thing, and I don’t want to just say Davis has bad makeup, but like you say,  the struggled got to him, and one scout I talked to mentioned how incredibly frustrated he looked at the plate, like he was just saying, “what could go wrong next?”  The unanswered question for me isn’t what happened, it’s what he learns from it and what adjustments he makes.

TH: Sure.  I’d be willing to bet that by this time next year, we’ll all have a very good idea about what Davis will be.  Either he hits in A-ball or he doesn’t.

KG: Absolutely

For a New York Penn League team, this is an unusually interesting bunch of hard throwers.  Of course, in so many ways, the Cyclones are not an average Short Season team.

James (Jim) Fuller

L/L – 5’10” 180 lbs – 21^st Rd ’08 S. Connecticut State – b. 6/11/87

The little lefty who can dial it up to 92 mph looks like he could be a real late round find for the Mets. A starter during a fine college career, Fuller has a four pitch arsenal. He had some arm troubles that limited him early in his Cyclones career but the former Owl finished the season healthy and was untouchable all the way along.

Fuller earned first team All-America honors from the NCBWA, a pair of 2^nd team recognitions, and two regional pitcher of the year honors for his collegiate work after leading the country with 145 strikeouts.

Likely ’09 start: St. Lucie bullpen

Roy Merritt

L/L – 6’0” 170 lbs – drafted 29^th rd 2007 (Southern U.)– b. 9/22/85

Merritt had a rough start to the year in the Florida State League in 2008 after skipping two levels from the Appy League in 2007. He settled down to become a key piece of the Brooklyn bullpen. As a left-handed sidearmer, he is something of a novelty and perhaps a future LOOGY. His fastball lived in the high 80s and his slider spun across the zone.

He finished off 2008 by holding his own in Hawaii Winter Baseball.

Likely ’09 start: St. Lucie bullpen

Wendy Rosa

R/R – 6’0” 170 lbs – NDFA – b. 8/26/86

In his fourth professional season, after spending ‘05 and ‘06 in the DSL and ‘07 in the GCL, Rosa threw well out of the Brooklyn bullpen in ‘08. And for the fourth year in a row, Rosa struck out more than a batter an inning with a BB/9 above six.

That’s pretty much it. Rosa throws his fastball his fastball 92-93 mph from a delivery with some jerkiness and deception, but has had trouble throwing strikes consistently. His second pitch is a curveball in the 77-80 mph range. Rosa, who had no significant platoon split in 2008, is a middle-reliever now and forever. The simple question for Rosa as he moves up the ladder is whether he will throw enough strikes.

Yury Santana

R/R – 6’1” 170 lbs – NDFA 5/12/03 – b. 8/15/82

Santana, who turned 26 in August, was an infielder for his first three professional seasons, but after hitting .207 for his career, he moved to the mound in 2006. He had just 24.1 IP entering 2008 so he’s still learning on the hill. On the other hand, 2008 was clearly his best in three tries as a pitcher even while his velocity varied night to night.

A two pitch guy out of the bullpen, Santana will be a middle reliever as he moves up the chain. One night I saw him, his fastball was 90-91, while the next night it was 88-89. The slider was ok, but hardly special.

Likely ’09 start: St. Lucie bullpen

R/R – 6’1” 185 lbs – 25^th Rd ’08 (UConn)– b. 3/25/87

I saw Turgeon twice, and he was effective both times. His fastball is an average MLB pitch, in the 90-92 mph range. He mixed in a curveball and a changeup, which at 80 mph had decent separation from his heater.

At best, he’ll grow up to be a middle relief option in a few years.

Likely ’09 start: Savannah or St. Lucie bullpen

Brad Holt

R/R – 6’4” 195 – 1s ’08 (UNC Wilmington) – b. 10/13/86

This one’s simple: for me, Brad Holt is the best pitching prospect in the Mets system. Holt has a perfect pitcher’s frame and uses it to generate a plus fastball (93-95 mph) that he has learned to locate. His breaking ball made significant progress over the summer as he tightened up a slurvy offering from college into a sharp curveball. The pitch is still inconsistent, but Holt’s progress leaves room for optimism. Holt almost never threw his changeup in the NYP because he didn’t need it. If he’s going to develop into a top of the line starter, that pitch must at least become usable.

In 2008, Holt became the 4^th Cyclone to lead league in ERA joining luminaries such as LHP Ross Peeples 1.34 (2001), RHP Bobby Parnell 1.73 (2005) and RHP Dylan Owen 1.49 (200 07).

Likely ’09 Start: St. Lucie rotation

Jenry Mejia

R/R – 6’0” 165 – NDFA – b. 10/11/89

Hey, look, over there, it’s a 95 mph fastball from an 18 year old. Yeah, that’s kinda a big deal. Mejia, who was 93-95 when I saw him responded well after the Mets promoted him from the GCL to the NYP. His second pitch is a firm changeup in the 87-89 mph range, while his curveball (75-76 mph) was his third offering. The Mets were impressed not just by his physical gifts, but by his mental acumen and the ease with which he adapted to and thrived in new competitive situations. His delivery has some effort in it prompting standard concerns about durability and command.

I wrote about Mejia at length and posted video here.

Likely ’09 start: 50/50 Savannah/St. Lucie Rotation

R/R – 6’3” 190 lbs – 22^nd Rd ’08 (Fresno Pacific) – b. 9/22/86

Schwinden had a very nice professional debut. However, add in those unearned runs to his earned runs, and his ERA jumps by over a full point to a still impressive, but less eye-popping 3.03. I saw him for two unspectacular innings on a night when he was overshadowed by Brad Holt. He located his 88-90 mph fastball to succeed.

As a 22^nd round draftee, Schwinden will be forced to prove himself one level at a time.

Likely ’09 start: Savannah

R/R – 6’5” 230 lbs – 13^th Rd ’08 (Illinois) – b. 8/3/86

By any statistical marker, Scott Shaw had a tremendous professional debut in 2008. He was fourth in the NYP in strikeouts, issued very few walks, and had an ERA below three.

Shaw accomplished this primarily by commanding his fastball. In July, I saw Shaw pitching 87-90, mostly at 88-89, with more 87s as his pitch count rose and he tired. His secondary pitches included a hard curveball around 77 mph and a changeup in the low-to-mid 80s. He used both pitches very infrequently in the outings I saw. Because his fastball command was so strong, he didn’t need to go to his secondary pitches much against rookie ball hitters.

Likely ’09 start: St. Lucie

2B Josh Satin

– R/R – 6’2” 200 lbs – drafted 6^th rd 2008 – b. 12/23/84

Satin was second on Cyclones, behind Lutz, on the Brooklyn offense with an .812 OPS in his 45 games in 2008. If he had had enough AB to qualify, he would have tied for 15^th best in the league. The former All-American at Cal can hit. I missed Satin when I saw the Cyclones in 2008. He will start 2009 as a 24-year old.

Likely ’09 start: A+

– L/R – 6’1” 195 lbs – drafted 1^st rd (22^nd overall) 2008 – b. 10/20/86

Havens professional debut in 2008 was lost to a series of injuries. He sat at the beginning of the season with elbow troubles before leg problems sidelined him at season’s end. When he was healthy, Havens impressed scouts with power and his approach at the plate, adjusting and succeeding in a variety of situations.

Likely ’09 Start: A+

SS Wilmer Flores – I will write about Flores, the best Mets infield prospect, more extensively in the Kingsport Mets season wrap in the coming days.

SS Juan Lagares – I wrote about Juan Lagares’ year in which he played 46 games with Savannah and 19 with Brooklyn in the Savannah season wrap here.

3B – R/R – 6’1” 220 lbs – drafted 5^th rd 2007– b. 6/3/86

Lutz, who missed the entire 2007 season with an injury suffered on Opening Night, showed power, patience and contact ability in 2008. Scouts loved his swing. One described an MLB caliber bat where even his outs were hit hard. However, injuries struck Lutz again, ending his season early on July 18^th. Beginning 2009 as a 22-year old with 74 professional AB in two years trying to make a full-season club is a difficult way to forge a big league career.

Likely ’09 Start: 65/35% Savannah/St. Lucie

Eric Campbell 2008

3B/LF – R/R – 6’03” 225 lbs – 8^th Rd ’08 – b. 4/9/87

The Mets drafted Eric Campbell in the 8^th round out of Boston College in June. A natural thirdbaseman, Campbell made his first starts in leftfield in the games I saw. He was athletic enough to handle the position despite looking at times as though he was learning on the fly. A scout from a rival team offered high praise when he complained that he wanted his team to draft Campbell.

Likely ’09 start: A+

1B– L/L – 6’4” 215 lbs – 1^st rd ’08 (19^th overall) – b. 3/22/87

Ike Davis’ professional debut simply was not what he or the Mets could have hoped for. The Mets paid the former ASU standout $1.57 million to sign and might have expected a smooth transition to professional baseball for former Yankee Ron Davis’ son.

Davis began his Brooklyn tenure with a 15-game hitting streak which concluded with him hitting .292/.288/.385 since he did not draw a single walk in his first two weeks in professional baseball. During July, Davis was lunging after pitches and rolling over those he did make contact with. By August, he calmed down enough to draw more walks (15) than strikeouts (12) in 22 games. However, power never came alongside the patience. Although scouts were impressed by his plus raw power in batting practice, Davis, who was homerless, rarely took it to games.

A fine defender at first and a former college pitcher with more than enough arm for an outfield corner, it won’t matter unless Davis starts to turn his power potential into game production.

Likely ’09 Start: A+