CF Ezequiel Carrera – L/L – 5’10” 180 lbs – NDFA ’05 – b. 6/11/87

Ezequiel Carrera skipped from the GCL in 2007 to the top of the St. Lucie batting order in 2008. He has a plus big league tool: top flight speed. He uses his blazing speed to good effect in all phases of his game. While he struggles to take the right routes on balls over his head or in the gaps, he can outrun his own initial hesitation to cover a lot of ground in center. When he yanks a ball down the rightfield line, like Jose Reyes, he’s more likely to land at third than second.

Carrera shows some developing plate discipline, but will need to become even more patient to profile as a true top of the order threat.

Likely ’09 start: AA

Lucas Duda – L/R – 6’4” 225 lbs – 7^th Rd 2007 – b. 2/3/86

This is real simple: hitting .263/.358/.398 is not enough for a 22-year old in the FSL who wants to be considered a top prospect.

Likely 2009 Start: AA

Ruben Tejada – R/R – 5’11” 160 lbs – NDFA ’06 – b. 10/27/89

Tejada had absolutely no business playing every day in the FSL. In 2007, Tejada hit .283/.401/.367 in 32 G in the GCL and won the Sterling Award in the VSL where he hit .364/.434/.423. Tejada should have played for the Brooklyn Cyclones in 2008.

When I first got to St. Lucie, I was worried I’d have trouble picking out the players I wanted to watch. Identifying Tejada was easy. He was the little dude picking every ball at shortstop. That’s Tejada’s greatest strength: his excellent hands. He has more than enough arm for SS, but it’s an average arm, not a cannon. He showed good range moving to his left, but some hesitation smooth working to his backhand. His manager, Tim Teuffel was pleased with Tejada’s progress.

Tejada is off to a good start in HWB.

Likely 2009 Start: A+. Tejada should repeat the FSL and earn his way up to Binghamton.

Jordan Abruzzo –S/R – 6’2” 220 lbs – 13^th rd ’07 – b. 8/2/24

Abruzzo hit his way out of Savannah and into the middle of the St. Lucie batting order in the first two months of 2008. So the Mets rewarded him by sending him down two levels from St. Lucie to Brooklyn on July12th. Abruzzo is a free-swinger with some pop from each side. The combination of his receiving abilities and modest power will keep him in baseball for the foreseeable future. He profiles as an org guy or, if he’s lucky, a backup catcher somewhere along the line.

Abruzzo will have a chance to improve his stock slightly in HWB this fall.

Likely 2009 Start: AA

Josh Thole – L/R – 6’2” 205 lbs – 13^th rd ’05 – b. 10/28/86

Josh Thole knows the difference between a strike and a ball. For the third time in four years as a professional, Josh Thole had more walks than strikeouts. In 2008, he started to convert those pitch capabilities abilities into a nascent ability to drive the ball. His 25 doubles and five homers each exceeded his total from his first three seasons (23 and 2, respectively) and 591 professional Abs.

The left-handed hitting Thole actually had an OPS 11 points higher against left-handed pitchers than against righties.

So, that kind of production, from a catcher – good contact skills, with burgeoning pop - makes Thole a really good prospect right? Not so fast. Can he handle catcher? Thole led FSL catchers with a .994 fielding percentage, and was fifth in the league among qualified backstops (a short list) by throwing out 22.5% of baserunners. In less than 20 innings of observation, I did not focus enough on Thole’s defense behind the dish to have strong opinions on his capabilities. JJ Cooper at BA recently wrote of Thole, “there are few who liked his work at catcher.”

I’ll add here that there are questions about nearly all young catchers’ abilities behind the plate. A young shortstop or centerfielder can blow a scout away with speed, hands, and arm. Catchers by contrast can show the tools – arm, footwork, transfer – but at no other position on the diamond, is there as much to learn to become an MLB caliber defender. For example, catchers must learn to handle pitchers, read batters swings, read pitches, refine their blocking mechanics, refine their footwork, smooth out the transfer from glove to hand.

The Mets are challenging Thole by sending him to the Arizona Fall League. I look forward to reports on his progress, and specifically his defense from the desert. I might or might not make a trip to AZ myself.

Likely 2009 Start: AA

The Mets Florida State League team finished with a league worst 53-81 record. However, the good news in terms of wins and losses is that after a dreadful 19-50 first half, the club improved to go 34-31 in the second half, finishing 5.5 games behind the first place Daytona Cubs.

The Mets started the season as poorly as a team possibly could – by losing its first six games. Before April was out, the Mets had lost 11 in a row on their way to a 5-21 opening month. May, which featured a 12 game skid, was not much kinder, as the team finished the month 7-22.

As a team, the Mets lived near the bottom of the league statistical record boards in most categories. The team ERA of 4.43 was the worst in the league by over a third of a run. The Mets did walk just 389 batters, second fewest on the circuit. However, all of those strikes came at a cost, the staff gave up the second most homers (107), and struck out the second fewest (902) of any of the league’s units. The team scored 517 runs (3.7 r/g), second worst in the league and was in the bottom third of the league in AVG, OBP, SLG, HR, 2B, BB, and SB.

LHP Adam Bostick – L/L – 6’1” 233 lbs – Acquired in trade w/ FLA w/ Jason Vargas for H. Owens & M Lindstrom – b. 3/17/83

Bostick’s season was cut short by micro-fracture surgery on his knee in May. In April, he was 2-1 in April with a 3.86 ERA but was 0-1 with a 10.67 ERA in May. The primary difference was that in May batters hit .354 against him versus .223 in April.

RHP Brian Stokes – R/R – 6’1” 210 lbs – trade for cash w/ TB 11/07 –9/7/79

Pulled off the Tampa Bay Rays scrap heap by the Mets, Stokes provided some effective innings for the New York bullpen, after serving as a starter in New Orleans. Note, however, that he was more than a little homer prone in the bigs.

Stokes is now 29. He’s no building block, of a franchise or a bullpen, but he served as a nice cheap piece in 2008. Stokes is unlikely to improve upon his 2008 work moving forward.

Brandon Knight – L/R – 6’0” 195 lbs – MiLB FA ’08 – b. 10/1/75

First Major league appearance sine 2002? First MLB start? First MLB win? Pitching your team to a spot in the medal round at the Olympics. Winning bronze in Beijing? Yeah, it was a pretty good 2008 for Brandon Knight. And remember, he almost quit playing for coaching.

Could he recapture the magic as a 33-year old to become a swingman again in 2009?

Carlos Muniz – R/R – 6’1” 190 – — 13^th rd ’03 LBSU – b. 3/12/81

Muniz didn’t allow a run for the first month of the season, until his 12^th appearance as a Zephyr. During this span, I was lucky enough to run into a few of Muniz’s friends in the parking lot before a Mets-Dodgers game in LA. Muniz is a middle reliever, if that, but nothing more.

Willie Collazo – L/L – 5’9” 170 – signed as MiLB FA 3/1/06 – b. 11/7/79

Collazo is a short lefty with a short fastball whose best pitch is a changeup. He’s fearless and will attack both lefties and righties with his heater, his change or his slider. If the Mets did not see fit to give Collazo a look in 2008, do you see it happening some other time?

Now that I’m not watching Mets games every night, I can return to my end-of-season recaps.  We resume by taking a look at some of the guys who pitched in New Orleans in 2008.

LHP Jon Niese – L/L – 6’4” 215 lbs – 7^th Rd ’05 – b. 10/27/86

Niese had a very good season. His increased attention to his own physical conditioning paid big dividends.

At this point, Mets fans have seen Niese live a few times. They’ve seen the big curveball. They’ve seen the fringy 88-91 mph fastball that loses life as the game wears on. The changeup that at times was good – hey, Mike Cameron swung through it. Niese says he learned a cutter. Planning around young pitchers is tough, just ask the Yankees, or Mets fans about generation K, but the most likely scenario is that Niese will go to spring training in 09 with a chance to win a rotation job.

Eddie Kunz – R/R – 6’6” 265 – 2^nd rd ’07 – 4/8/86

Kunz did not acquit himself well in either AAA or the big leagues in 2008. However, he reached the big leagues with just 76.2 innings split between SSA Brooklyn, the Arizona Fall League, AA and AAA.

There are some things to like about Kunz. He’s big. He’s a great quote. Most importantly, he throws a nasty, nasty sinker at 94 or 95 mph from a low ¾ arm slot. It’s a plus MLB sinker. His slider can be tough on righties.

There are some things not to like about Kunz. With some violence in his delivery, scouts are concerned about whether he’ll ever have good command. Kunz low armslot is a liability against lefties against whom he doesn’t have a second offering. He is uncomfortable throwing his slider to lefties. In college, he used a changeup to lefties, but the Mets had him focus on his sinker/slider combo early in his professional career.

Kunz really is not far from helping in an MLB bullpen. His ceiling is up to him. If he can find a way to neutralize lefties – through the development of his slider, a return to his changeup, or the addition of a splitter – he could eventually grow into a closers role.

Bobby Parnell – R/R – 6’4” 200 lbs – 9^th rd ’05 – b 9/8/84

Parnell didn’t exactly dominate AA or AAA as a starter, but the Mets, short on arms, brought up the young flamethrower and tossed him in the bullpen. And it looks like that’s where his future lies. Parnell can hit 95 mph, giving him plus velocity, his only plus offering. Neither his changup nor his slider was an average big league pitch when I saw him live in New Britain in his final AA start. The velocity alone isn’t enough to be a successful MLB reliever, but it’s a good start.

LF Chris Aguila – R/R – 5’11” 200 – MiLB FA – 2/23/79

AAA: .295/.378/.560 20 2B, 2 3B, 29 HR, 53 BB, 102 K, 13/17 K – 420 AB, 116 G

Like Pascucci, Aguila will be 30 heading to spring training 2009, and like Pascucci, there’s no guarantee he’ll do so as a Met.

BP’s translated EQA suggests that Aguila would provide something like MLB average production, had he played in the big leagues all year.

OF/1B Valentino Pascucci – R/R – 6’6” 260 – MiLB FA 08 – 11/17/78

AAA: .290/.410/.553 23 2B, 27 HR, 77 BB, 109 K – 396 AB, 114 G

The Mets brought Pascucci in to AAA on April 30 and the big guy did exactly what he always does: hit for power, walk a lot, and crush lefties while waiting for another big league opportunity. Pascucci picked up his last big league AB in 2004 with Montreal.

BP’s translated EQA suggests that Pascucci would put up an MLB EQA of .280 in the big leagues against a .260 average on the strength of a .244/.351/.460 batting line. Would any team take a gamble on that?

He’ll be 30 heading to spring training 2009. Will he go hoping for an MLB shot or will he head off to Japan to some guaranteed cash? Tough choice.

CF Jesus Feliciano – L/L – 6’0” 174 – MiLB FA – 6/6/79

AAA: .308/.366/.383 21 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 41 BB, 57 K, 12/26 SB

He can play an ok centefield, but it’s not a special center, but doesn’t have enough secondary skills, power or discipline, to be a productive big leaguer.