A+
On the surface, Jefry Marte had a disappointing regular season, hitting .248/.313/.346 in 131 games for St. Lucie after spending the previous two years in Savannah.  On the other hand, the mitigating factors for Marte are his age – he turned 20 in June, and the league – the FSL hit .262/.331/.386.  Marte got off to a hot start in April (.321/.396/.524 – 5 2B, 4 HR), producing the most extra-base hits of any month in 2011 in his first try.  However, as the summer wore on, he wore down, hitting just .210/.263/.284 in the second half.

One reason for optimism about Marte’s offensive game: his 2011 strikeout rate of 16% was his lowest in his three years of full-season baseball, a full 6% lower than his 22% whiff rate in 2009 with Savannah.   A second reason for optimism: his strong Arizona Fall League performance, in which he had an equal number of walks and strikeouts (12 in 22 games) or 12.8% of plate appearances.  That kind of strike zone control is a very large step forward.

I saw him only very briefly in 2011, but I thought he was moving better at third base than when I saw him in 2010.   I should point out that he started playing first base in Arizona, and it was while playing first, that he broke his wrist.  There’s no good time to break a wrist, but the fall, when he should have a full three and a half months to heal the bone and strengthen the muscles before spring training seems like one of the less bad scenarios.  If you’d asked me in August, where Marte would rate on my list of Mets prospects, I’d tell you he would be way down from his pre-season rank at #31.  Now, I think he’s more “holding.”

A
Lets make this simple: Aderlin Rodriguez, who turns 20 today, has plus power.  His 17 homeruns were the most by a Gnat as a Mets affiliate (exceeding Sean Ratliff’s 15 in 2009), and the most by any Gnat since Luke Montz hit 19 in 2005.  He was just the fourth Gnat as a Mets affiliate (since 2007) to hit double-figures home runs.

Everything else in his game needs work.  He hit just .221/.265/.372 overall.  Sure, some of that was hurt by his .245 BABIP, but that BABIP is also a product of lot of weak contact, especially popups.

He committed 44 errors at third.  His arm, to my eyes is stronger than Marte’s.  His footwork was at least ast good.  However, his hands aren’t as good.  It’s very possible that he will have to slide across the diamond to first base eventually.

One strike. The Gnats were one strike away from the South Atlantic League Championship with a 9-8 lead in the top of the ninth inning Friday night. LHP Brandon Sage had a 1-2 count on the Grasshoppers’ leadoff man, Noah Perio with the tying run at third. The crowd was on their feet. Perio slapped the 1-2 through the left side to score the tying run. The ‘Hoppers eventually scored three runs in the 11th against Ronny Morla to capture game four and send the series to a winner-take-all game five.

The Gnats will host game five Saturday at 6:05 pm.

Here’s the sound of the game tying base hit:

09_16_Perio_Gametying_1B

Part of the shame of the Grasshoppers’ comeback is that it changed the story away from a remarkable Gnats’ comeback. Trailing 7-2 entering the bottom of the fourth inning, the Gnats erupted for seven runs, the first six against Grasshoppers’ starter Rett Varner to take a 9-7 lead. 3B Aderlin Rodriguez and LF Alonzo Harris each picked up RBI singles, but the big hit was a three-run triple from red-hot CF Darrell Ceciliani.

Here’s the sound on Ceciliani’s triple:

09_16_Ceciliani_3R_Triple

Why did the Grasshoppers have a big lead? Erik Goeddel, after five shutout innings in a deciding game three against Augusta got hit around Friday: 4 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 HR, 1 HP.

Rodriguez was 2-4 with a homer and was walked intentionally in the 10th inning with first base open. The long ball was his second of the four-game series.

The ‘Hoppers have won two games in this series, and in both,  the Gnats not only had a lead going to the ninth, but had a lead with two outs in the ninth.

The 24-year old Sage spent all of 2010 in the Savannah bullpen, making 40 appearances with a 3.07 ERA and an unremarkable 49 strikeouts against 12 walks in 58.2 innings pitched.  He began 2011 in St. Lucie, was promoted to Binghamton in early May and in nearly two months at AA ran a 7.84 ERA in 20.2 innings pitched with 18 strikeouts, 13 walks and four homers. He re-joined the Gnats after getting sent down from St. Lucie on August 7th.  Perhaps throwing the final pitch in a South Atlantic League Championship clincher would have offered him some small measure of personal redemption, but it was not to be Friday.

The Charelston RiverDogs took and early 7-0 lead after just an inning and a half.  The Gnats rallied to cut the lead to 7-6 in the fifth inning, but could not overcome the early defecit.

Gonzalez German took it on the chin in this start: 1 1/3 IP, 10 hits, 7 er, bb, k.

Darrell Ceciliani (2-4, 3B, RBI), Albert Cordero (3-4, 2B), and Aderlin Rodriguez (2-4, 2B, RBI) each had multi-hit games for the Gnats.

The Gnats snapped a five-game losing streak when Luis Nieves dropped down a squeeze with Blake Forsythe scoring the winning run in the bottom of the ninth.

Call me what you will, but I’m more interested in home runs than bunts.  In the fourth inning, Forsythe and 3B Aderlin Rodriguez hit back-to-back jacks.  It was the ninth of the year for the 22-year old Forsythe (.234/.336/.399). It was the 16th of the year for the 19-year old Rodriguez (.221/.267/.370).  The 16 home runs are the most ever by a Gnat during their run as a Mets affiliate, a relationship that began in the 2007 season.  It’s the most homeruns by any Savannah player since Luke Montz hit 19 in 2005.  The last time a Mets player hit as many as 16 homers in the South Atlantic League?  Mike Carp, as a 19-year old slugged 19 in just 89 games in 2005 for Hagerstown as part of a .249/.358/.476 campaign.  Carp, by the way, is hitting a healthy .299/.358/.483 for the Mariners.

One other thing to keep in mind about comparing Carp to Rodriguez.  Carp played his home games in Hagerstown with is essentially neutral (in a SAL context) for home runs, while Rodriguez has played his home games at Historic Grayson Stadium which is death on longballs, with a three-year weighted park multiplier for homers of 0.78!  In fact, Rodriguez has hit 11 of his 16 homers on the road.

Rodriguez has plenty to work on, but the power is real, and has a chance to be special.

The team with the best record in the League is suffering through a 2-5 road trip where its just not playing all that well.

However, 3B Aderlin Rodriguez (.217/.264/.360) was 1-4 with a home run, his 15th.  The 19-year old is now tied with Sean Ratliff for the most SAL home runs in a season in Savannah since the Gnats have been a Mets affiliate, a relationship that goes back to the 2007 season.  Of course, he’s hit 11 of his 15 bombs on the road.  The power alone makes him very interesting, but I suppose the Mets will have him repeat the SAL.

SS Wilfredo Tovar was 2-for-4, his third straight multi-hit game to push his August surge to .321/.394/.407 in 21 games.

Also of note for the true completist, Gonzalez Germen, who had been coming out of the bullpen in August started, while Ryan Fraser made his first relief appearance since June.  Germen and Fraser are one and two on the Gnats in terms of innings pitched, so the move was all about limiting their workloads.

Bottom of the 13th, two outs and the bases empty for Aderlin Rodriguez who hit a screaming line drive of a home run over the left field wall for a game-winning homer.

It sounded like this:

08_16_Aderlin_Rodriguez_GW_HR

He’s up to 14 homers in a SAL season as a teenager.  That’s good.

However, everything else in his game needs work.  The 19-year old is hitting just  .216/.267/.356 for the season.  Even after playing hero on a 1-6 night Tuesday, Rodriguez is mired in a .164/.179/.236 August as part of a .203/.255/.324 second half in 48 games in Savannah.  It’s not that he’s striking out a ton, his 20% k/rate for the year is manageable.  He’s just hitting .243 on balls in play which is a combination of both too many pop-ups and some bad luck.  He also committed a pair of errors at third Tuesday, his 40th and 41st of the year.  His arm is strong enough for third, and once he has the ball he’s been fine, but he’s struggling catching the grounders and has visibly started to stop trusting his hands.

Other notes:

- Angel Cuan threw six innings or more for the 10th straight start, yielding just a run on four hits in six innings.  Working at 85-88 mph from the left side with a heavy dose of his curve and changeup, he’s up to fifth in the SAL in ERA (3.08).

- Chase Huchingson continues to be very good, while pitching relatively little.  The Mets have limited his innings dramatically, but the 6’5″ lefty with the 1.73 is too good for the SAL.  He faced seven batters Tuesday with the following results: 4 ground balls (including a Rodriguez error), two fly balls, and a strikeout.   Lefty relievers have succeeded in the big leagues with less stuff than Huchingson possesses.

- Tyler Matzek is a complete mess.  The Rockies’ first round pick in 2009, he flopped in the A+ California League this year, was demoted to the the SAL, where he was floundering, before taking a month off to go work with his amateur pitching coach.  His line Tuesday says it all: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 7 BB, 6 K.  I don’t have accurate gun readings, but the fastball was plus if not better.  He flashed a nasty slider. He gave up two just hits because Sand Gnats’ batters couldn’t hit him when he was in the zone.  However, he walked seven!  Seven.  He just hasn’t figured out how to throw strikes.  Will he ever?  I have no clue.  Still, the Rockies have $3.9 million reasons to figure out how to improve his control.

Part 6 on players ranked 11-15 is here.  Part 5 on players ranked 16-20 is here.  Part 4 on players ranked 21-25 is here.  Part 3 on players ranked 26-30 is here.  Part 2 on players originally ranked 31-36 is here. Part 1 on players originally ranked 36-41 is here.   Each player’s name links back to his original scouting report from before the 2011 season.

#6 – 2B Reese Havens
What I thought: Havens could be a future All-Star at second base for his power and patience.
Reality: He’s missed a lot of time again.  The 24-year old started the season a month and a half late, as he recovered from off-season surgery to shave down a rib, and then he missed nearly another month with a lower back strain which the Mets claim was unrelated.  It’s hard to judge Havens’ on-field performance separately from the time he’s missed.  Is he striking out in 28% of his AA plate appearances because his back was hurting, or because that’s now the player he is?  Same question about the drop in his extra-base hit rate?

For a while, it looked like Havens was the Mets best option to play second base in a post-Luis Castillo world.  Well, the team now has a glut of options over various time horizons including Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, Ruben Tejada and Havens’ own double-play partner, Jordany Valdepsin who Havens will have to compete against if he can ever stay healthy.
Stock:  Down
Basic

Advanced

#7 – RF Fernando Martinez
What I thought: I dropped Martinez from #2 to #7 because that seemed right.
Reality: Guess what?  He’s missed significant time to injury.  He’s walking a touch more than he did a year ago, but is hitting for less power in AAA and has been diagnosed with arthritis.  He’s stopped running completely (0 SB/0 Attempts) so it’s all about the bat at this point.
Stock: Down.
Basic

Advanced

#8 – 3B Aderlin Rodriguez
What I thought: The powerful Rodriguez was the highest-ceiling bat in the low minors for the Mets.
Reality: Rodriguez has shown power, but raised questions about other areas of his game.  The 13 homers are nothing to scoff at from a 19-year old in a huge ballpark as they’re the second-most by a Gnat, trailing only Sean Ratliff’s 15 dingers in 2009 since 2006.  Still Rodriguez has not made other adjustments and pops too many balls up.  In this respect a .252 BABIP is a product of 1. Bad luck, 2. A spacious ballpark, and 3. Too many pop-ups.

At third, Rodriguez’s agility and arms have been a pleasant surprises.  However, his hands might force him off the position.

Stock: Down, but not by as much as you might think.  He’s still hitting for power.

Basic

Advanced

#9 – OF Lucas Duda
What I thought: Duda would have a chance to prove that his AAA slugging would play in the big leagues.
Reality: Carlos Beltran was better and healthier than I certainly thought was likely, but now Duda has a few months to play himself into a big league role.  By wOBA, which assigns value-per plate appearance, Duda has already been the 7^th most valuable Mets hitter, and the fourth-best under contract for 2012 once Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Scott Hairston have been removed.
Stock: Up.  Graduated.  He’s a big leaguer now!
Basic

Advanced

#10 – RHP Jeurys Familia
What I thought: I liked that Familia was a big guy who threw hard and had a good August in 2010.
Reality: The 21-year old Familia improved his delivery, and improved his fastball command and slider and graduated from the Florida State League in May after dominating the League through six starts.  Scouts were impressed, but all ranked him behind Matt Harvey.  In AA, despite striking out well over a batter an inning, his walk rate has climbed back up to dangerous territory 4 BB/9 IP, and he’s been susceptible to the home run ball, indicating trouble locating in the zone.
Stock: Up.

Basic

Advanced

The team’s 13 runs scored on Sunday tied a season high.  The Gnats pounded out 15 hits and drew eight walks.

Stars of the weekend included:

LF Alonzo Harris who was 5-5 on Sunday with a pair of doubles, matching Savannah season highs in hits and doubles.  The 22-year old is up to .287/.343/.373 overall.  He’s driving the ball better, after a .056 isolated slugging in the first half, he’s up to .118 in the second half and is bopped along at .313/.346/.455 in July.  Harris tripled on Saturday, his fourth three-bagger in six games.

C Blake Forsythe, who turned 22 on Sunday, was 2-4 with a pair of doubles Saturday and 2-4 with a double on Sunday. He’s doubled in five straight games and has an extra-base hit in eight of his last nine games.  He just finished a .310/.443/.535 July in 20 games.  After a .113 isolated slugging percentage in the first half, he’s crushing at .195 iso in the second half.

3B Aderlin Rodriguez had three hits on Saturday and Sunday including a double Saturday and a homer and four RBI Sunday.  There are no such pretty splits for Rodriguez, his second-half OPS of .648 is virtually identical to his .653 first-half OPS.  Yet, the power is real, very real.  homer was his 13th.  That’s the second-most by a Gnat in a season since 2006.  That’s something.

Saturday, RHP Taylor Whitenton returned from a two and a half week break with a strained right forearm with three shutout innings with three strikeouts, and encouragingly, zero walks.  LHP reliever Adam Kolarek followed by holding Greensboro to one run in five innings with zero walks and seven strikeouts.

Scott Moviel: 6 IP, 11 hits, 5 runs, 2 er, 5k

Wilmer Flores: 1-3, HBP, 2 errors (13 & 14)

Cory Vaughn: 1-4, 3k

Cesar Puello: 0-4, 2k

A: @ Savannah Sand Gnats 5, Lexington Legends 4

A three-run sixth gave the Gnats the lead and the eventual win.

A two-run single by Albert Cordero (1-3, 3RBI) was the big blow in the Gnats rally. Cordero (pictured) is hitting .333/.365/.449 in 18 July games.

Aderlin Rodriguez finished the night at 0-4, and is now hitting .200/.270/.327 in 30 games since the All-Star break.

Chase Huchingson (W(6-2) 2 IP, 2h, K) and Ronny Morla (SV (8), 2 IP, h,K) combined for four scoreless innings of relief.

The Gnats scored the winning run in the bottom of the ninth, but that’s not what I want to write about here.

Nope.  Facing Jameson Taillon, the Pirates’ top prospect, and one of the best RHP pitching prospects in baseball, 3B Aderlin Rodriguez (pictured) turned around a 94 mph 3-1 fastball in the bottom of the fourth inning for a two-run home run.  He just crushed it, smashing it a little to the right of the straightaway center, clearing a 16′ wall as well. I’d estimate it traveled roughly 425 feet.  Importantly, he did it off fellow 19-year old Taillon, with whom he shares a birthday.  I’m going to write about Taillon in a separate post, but for now, know this: Taillon is the single best pitching prospect I’ve seen in the South Atlantic League this year, and one of the top three from the last two years.  I said on air that Aderlin’s swing was the single-best by a Sand Gnat this year.  A few hours later, I stand by that.

The home run was Aderlin’s 12 of the year.

Blake Forsythe had a nice night too, going 3-4 with a double.

Angel Cuan, Tailon’s polar opposite was solid again: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K.  Taillon is a big, hard-throwing righty.  Cuan is a little lefty. However, he threw strikes, lots of them, like 85% strikes.

Listen to Aderlin’s homer:

07_21_Aderlin_Rodriguez_HR