@ Savannah Sand Gnats 3, Asheville Tourists 2

Bottom of the 13th, two outs and the bases empty for Aderlin Rodriguez who hit a screaming line drive of a home run over the left field wall for a game-winning homer.

It sounded like this:

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He’s up to 14 homers in a SAL season as a teenager.  That’s good.

However, everything else in his game needs work.  The 19-year old is hitting just  .216/.267/.356 for the season.  Even after playing hero on a 1-6 night Tuesday, Rodriguez is mired in a .164/.179/.236 August as part of a .203/.255/.324 second half in 48 games in Savannah.  It’s not that he’s striking out a ton, his 20% k/rate for the year is manageable.  He’s just hitting .243 on balls in play which is a combination of both too many pop-ups and some bad luck.  He also committed a pair of errors at third Tuesday, his 40th and 41st of the year.  His arm is strong enough for third, and once he has the ball he’s been fine, but he’s struggling catching the grounders and has visibly started to stop trusting his hands.

Other notes:

- Angel Cuan threw six innings or more for the 10th straight start, yielding just a run on four hits in six innings.  Working at 85-88 mph from the left side with a heavy dose of his curve and changeup, he’s up to fifth in the SAL in ERA (3.08).

- Chase Huchingson continues to be very good, while pitching relatively little.  The Mets have limited his innings dramatically, but the 6’5″ lefty with the 1.73 is too good for the SAL.  He faced seven batters Tuesday with the following results: 4 ground balls (including a Rodriguez error), two fly balls, and a strikeout.   Lefty relievers have succeeded in the big leagues with less stuff than Huchingson possesses.

- Tyler Matzek is a complete mess.  The Rockies’ first round pick in 2009, he flopped in the A+ California League this year, was demoted to the the SAL, where he was floundering, before taking a month off to go work with his amateur pitching coach.  His line Tuesday says it all: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 7 BB, 6 K.  I don’t have accurate gun readings, but the fastball was plus if not better.  He flashed a nasty slider. He gave up two just hits because Sand Gnats’ batters couldn’t hit him when he was in the zone.  However, he walked seven!  Seven.  He just hasn’t figured out how to throw strikes.  Will he ever?  I have no clue.  Still, the Rockies have $3.9 million reasons to figure out how to improve his control.

Ok, now that we’re past the trade deadline, it’s time to finish my midseason review of my pre-season Top 41 Mets prospects.  This will be the second-to-last installment.  Ideally, players 1-5 will run Tuesday.  Then Wednesday, we’ll take a look at the guys who at this point have likely hopped into the Top 41.

Part 6 on players ranked 11-15 is here.  Part 5 on players ranked 16-20 is here.  Part 4 on players ranked 21-25 is here.  Part 3 on players ranked 26-30 is here.  Part 2 on players originally ranked 31-36 is here. Part 1 on players originally ranked 36-41 is here.   Each player’s name links back to his original scouting report from before the 2011 season.

#6 – 2B Reese Havens
What I thought: Havens could be a future All-Star at second base for his power and patience.
Reality: He’s missed a lot of time again.  The 24-year old started the season a month and a half late, as he recovered from off-season surgery to shave down a rib, and then he missed nearly another month with a lower back strain which the Mets claim was unrelated.  It’s hard to judge Havens’ on-field performance separately from the time he’s missed.  Is he striking out in 28% of his AA plate appearances because his back was hurting, or because that’s now the player he is?  Same question about the drop in his extra-base hit rate?

For a while, it looked like Havens was the Mets best option to play second base in a post-Luis Castillo world.  Well, the team now has a glut of options over various time horizons including Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, Ruben Tejada and Havens’ own double-play partner, Jordany Valdepsin who Havens will have to compete against if he can ever stay healthy.
Stock:  Down
Basic

Advanced

#7 – RF Fernando Martinez
What I thought: I dropped Martinez from #2 to #7 because that seemed right.
Reality: Guess what?  He’s missed significant time to injury.  He’s walking a touch more than he did a year ago, but is hitting for less power in AAA and has been diagnosed with arthritis.  He’s stopped running completely (0 SB/0 Attempts) so it’s all about the bat at this point.
Stock: Down.
Basic

Advanced

#8 – 3B Aderlin Rodriguez
What I thought: The powerful Rodriguez was the highest-ceiling bat in the low minors for the Mets.
Reality: Rodriguez has shown power, but raised questions about other areas of his game.  The 13 homers are nothing to scoff at from a 19-year old in a huge ballpark as they’re the second-most by a Gnat, trailing only Sean Ratliff’s 15 dingers in 2009 since 2006.  Still Rodriguez has not made other adjustments and pops too many balls up.  In this respect a .252 BABIP is a product of 1. Bad luck, 2. A spacious ballpark, and 3. Too many pop-ups.

At third, Rodriguez’s agility and arms have been a pleasant surprises.  However, his hands might force him off the position.

Stock: Down, but not by as much as you might think.  He’s still hitting for power.

Basic

Advanced

#9 – OF Lucas Duda
What I thought: Duda would have a chance to prove that his AAA slugging would play in the big leagues.
Reality: Carlos Beltran was better and healthier than I certainly thought was likely, but now Duda has a few months to play himself into a big league role.  By wOBA, which assigns value-per plate appearance, Duda has already been the 7^th most valuable Mets hitter, and the fourth-best under contract for 2012 once Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Scott Hairston have been removed.
Stock: Up.  Graduated.  He’s a big leaguer now!
Basic

Advanced

#10 – RHP Jeurys Familia
What I thought: I liked that Familia was a big guy who threw hard and had a good August in 2010.
Reality: The 21-year old Familia improved his delivery, and improved his fastball command and slider and graduated from the Florida State League in May after dominating the League through six starts.  Scouts were impressed, but all ranked him behind Matt Harvey.  In AA, despite striking out well over a batter an inning, his walk rate has climbed back up to dangerous territory 4 BB/9 IP, and he’s been susceptible to the home run ball, indicating trouble locating in the zone.
Stock: Up.

Basic

Advanced

Saturday: Savannah Sand Gnats 7, @ Greensboro Grasshoppers 1
Sunday: Savannah Sand Gnats 13, @ Greensboro Grasshoppers 1
The Gnats dropped their first two games in Greensboro Thursday and Friday, but came back to earn a split in style with two big wins over the weekend.

The team’s 13 runs scored on Sunday tied a season high.  The Gnats pounded out 15 hits and drew eight walks.

Stars of the weekend included:

LF Alonzo Harris who was 5-5 on Sunday with a pair of doubles, matching Savannah season highs in hits and doubles.  The 22-year old is up to .287/.343/.373 overall.  He’s driving the ball better, after a .056 isolated slugging in the first half, he’s up to .118 in the second half and is bopped along at .313/.346/.455 in July.  Harris tripled on Saturday, his fourth three-bagger in six games.

C Blake Forsythe, who turned 22 on Sunday, was 2-4 with a pair of doubles Saturday and 2-4 with a double on Sunday. He’s doubled in five straight games and has an extra-base hit in eight of his last nine games.  He just finished a .310/.443/.535 July in 20 games.  After a .113 isolated slugging percentage in the first half, he’s crushing at .195 iso in the second half.

3B Aderlin Rodriguez had three hits on Saturday and Sunday including a double Saturday and a homer and four RBI Sunday.  There are no such pretty splits for Rodriguez, his second-half OPS of .648 is virtually identical to his .653 first-half OPS.  Yet, the power is real, very real.  homer was his 13th.  That’s the second-most by a Gnat in a season since 2006.  That’s something.

Saturday, RHP Taylor Whitenton returned from a two and a half week break with a strained right forearm with three shutout innings with three strikeouts, and encouragingly, zero walks.  LHP reliever Adam Kolarek followed by holding Greensboro to one run in five innings with zero walks and seven strikeouts.

A+: Daytona Cubs 5, @ St. Lucie 3

Scott Moviel: 6 IP, 11 hits, 5 runs, 2 er, 5k

Wilmer Flores: 1-3, HBP, 2 errors (13 & 14)

Cory Vaughn: 1-4, 3k

Cesar Puello: 0-4, 2k

A: @ Savannah Sand Gnats 5, Lexington Legends 4

A three-run sixth gave the Gnats the lead and the eventual win.

A two-run single by Albert Cordero (1-3, 3RBI) was the big blow in the Gnats rally. Cordero (pictured) is hitting .333/.365/.449 in 18 July games.

Aderlin Rodriguez finished the night at 0-4, and is now hitting .200/.270/.327 in 30 games since the All-Star break.

Chase Huchingson (W(6-2) 2 IP, 2h, K) and Ronny Morla (SV (8), 2 IP, h,K) combined for four scoreless innings of relief.

@ Savannah Sand Gnats 3, West Virginia Power 2

The Gnats scored the winning run in the bottom of the ninth, but that’s not what I want to write about here.

Nope.  Facing Jameson Taillon, the Pirates’ top prospect, and one of the best RHP pitching prospects in baseball, 3B Aderlin Rodriguez (pictured) turned around a 94 mph 3-1 fastball in the bottom of the fourth inning for a two-run home run.  He just crushed it, smashing it a little to the right of the straightaway center, clearing a 16′ wall as well. I’d estimate it traveled roughly 425 feet.  Importantly, he did it off fellow 19-year old Taillon, with whom he shares a birthday.  I’m going to write about Taillon in a separate post, but for now, know this: Taillon is the single best pitching prospect I’ve seen in the South Atlantic League this year, and one of the top three from the last two years.  I said on air that Aderlin’s swing was the single-best by a Sand Gnat this year.  A few hours later, I stand by that.

The home run was Aderlin’s 12 of the year.

Blake Forsythe had a nice night too, going 3-4 with a double.

Angel Cuan, Tailon’s polar opposite was solid again: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K.  Taillon is a big, hard-throwing righty.  Cuan is a little lefty. However, he threw strikes, lots of them, like 85% strikes.

Listen to Aderlin’s homer:

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A+: St. Lucie Mets 6, @ Lakeland Flying Tigers 5

Darin Gorski moves to 9-0 on the season with probably his worst outing of the season (6 IP, 7 hits, 4 er, bb, 6 k, 2 HR).

Cory Vaughn (1-3, HR (3), 3RBI, HBP) hit a 3-run homerun in the top of the sixth to give St. Lucie a 5-4 lead. In 17 games for St. Lucie, Vaughn is hitting .333/.433/.561 and a 5bb/9K ratio.

Vaughn only hit 4 homeruns in 68 games (245 AB) for Savannah. Is this just a hot 2 1/2 weeks or did Historic Grayson Stadium zap Vaughn of his power?

Josh Egdin picked up his 3rd save, allowing a run on two hits in the ninth.

A: Game 1- @ Lexington Legends 2, Savannah Sand Gnats 0

    Game 2- Savannah Sand Gnats 7, @ Lexington Legends 3

Gnats Game 1 starter Taylor Whitendon took a 1-hit shutout into the bottom of the 7th inning. (Note: minor league DH are 7-inning games) In the bottom of the 7th Whitendon gave up a leadoff single then a two-run walk-off homerun, Gnats lose 2-0. Whitendon allowed a first inning single up until the killer 7th inning

In Game 2, Aderlin Rodriguez‘s (1-3, HR, 5 RBI) 7th inning opposite field grand slam gave the Gnats a commanding 7-0 lead. It was Rodriguez’s team leading 11th home run of the season. For the season Rodriguez is hitting .225/.278/.377

A+

Saturday: Game 1- Tampa Yankees 3, @ St. Lucie Mets 1

               Game 2- @ St. Lucie Mets 6, Tampa Yankees 5 12 innings

Sunday: @ St. Lucie Mets 6, Tampa Yankees 5 10 innings

Juan Lagares 4-12, HR, 4 RBI, 2 SB

Cory Vaughn 4-13, double, RBI

On Sunday, Josh Egdin allowed his first earned run since his promotion to St. Lucie. Egdin blew the save opportunity, but St. Lucie rallied to win in the bottom of the 10th.

Vaughn drove in the game winning run in Saturday’s 12 inning affair with a HBP.

On Sunday, Pedro Zapata gave St. Lucie it’s second straight walk-off win, with a RBI single in the 10th.

A

Saturday: Greensboro Grasshoppers 5, @ Savannah Sand Gnats 0

Sunday: Greensboro Grasshoppers 3, @ Savannah Sand Gnats 1

The Gnats offense managed just one run over the weekend. Aderlin Rodriguez provided the lone Gnats run with his team leading 10th homerun of the season on Sunday.

Ryan Fraser 7 IP, 4 hits, 1 run, 0 er, 2 bb, 5 k (Sunday).