@ Greensboro Grasshoppers 5, Savannah Sand Gnats 4

This was one of the craziest games of the Gnats’ season, a wildly entertaining and ultimately very disappointing game one of the best-of-five South Atlantic League Championship Series.

The Gnats took a 4-3 lead to the bottom of the ninth with dependable closer Hamilton Bennett on the hill.  The Grasshoppers actually won the game twice, but only one counted.  The second time, came with the bases loaded and two outs.  After Bennett walked three, the Gnats turned to Ronny Morla to face 1B Mark Canha, who lined Morla’s first delivery into rightcenter field to score the winning runs.

The first time the ‘Hoppers won the game in the ninth?  Wit ha runner at first and two outs, RF Marcel Ozuna hit a two-run home run down the left field line.  The Greensboro players started rushing towards home plate to celebrate.  However, the 3B umpire ruled the ball foul. The ‘Hoppers manager, Andy Haines, went nuts, and I think rightfully so, and got himself ejected.  Video of the play clearly showed that the ball was fair, and it wasn’t particularly close.  That was a 2-2 pitch.  Bennett eventually walked Ozuna and then LF Christian Yelich (after a balk, it became a semi-intentional walk) to load the bases.

So, yeah the Gnats were one strike away from a 1-0 lead in the series.  And eight of the last nine teams to win game one have gone on to win the SAL Championship Series.

Four paragraphs in, and I haven’t mentioned the Gnats’ star of Monday?  For shame.  Blake Forsythe was 2-3 with a pair of home runs.  His opposite field eighth-inning shot gave the Gnats the 4-3 lead the bullpen squandered in the ninth. In the third inning, he tied the game at 2-2 with a shot to left.  If Forsythe had played his home games in Greensboro this year, he would have hit 20 bombs easily.

Alonzo Harris’ solo homer in the fourth, which was absolutely crushed, gave the Gnats a brief 3-2 lead.  The GreenJackets evened the game on their second homer of the night leading off the fifth against Angel Cuan.  Cuan also gave up a two-run shot to Ozuna in the first that put Greensboro in front 2-0 in the first.

It was a game where there could have been many more runs scored: each team left the bases loaded twice.  In fact, the Gnats had the bases loaded with one out twice, and did not get a run out of either opportunity.  To be fair, in the first with two outs and the bases loaded, 3B Aderlin Rodriguez was robbed of a three-run double on a diving catch in right by Ozuna.

Saturday: Savannah Sand Gnats 7, @ Greensboro Grasshoppers 1
Sunday: Savannah Sand Gnats 13, @ Greensboro Grasshoppers 1
The Gnats dropped their first two games in Greensboro Thursday and Friday, but came back to earn a split in style with two big wins over the weekend.

The team’s 13 runs scored on Sunday tied a season high.  The Gnats pounded out 15 hits and drew eight walks.

Stars of the weekend included:

LF Alonzo Harris who was 5-5 on Sunday with a pair of doubles, matching Savannah season highs in hits and doubles.  The 22-year old is up to .287/.343/.373 overall.  He’s driving the ball better, after a .056 isolated slugging in the first half, he’s up to .118 in the second half and is bopped along at .313/.346/.455 in July.  Harris tripled on Saturday, his fourth three-bagger in six games.

C Blake Forsythe, who turned 22 on Sunday, was 2-4 with a pair of doubles Saturday and 2-4 with a double on Sunday. He’s doubled in five straight games and has an extra-base hit in eight of his last nine games.  He just finished a .310/.443/.535 July in 20 games.  After a .113 isolated slugging percentage in the first half, he’s crushing at .195 iso in the second half.

3B Aderlin Rodriguez had three hits on Saturday and Sunday including a double Saturday and a homer and four RBI Sunday.  There are no such pretty splits for Rodriguez, his second-half OPS of .648 is virtually identical to his .653 first-half OPS.  Yet, the power is real, very real.  homer was his 13th.  That’s the second-most by a Gnat in a season since 2006.  That’s something.

Saturday, RHP Taylor Whitenton returned from a two and a half week break with a strained right forearm with three shutout innings with three strikeouts, and encouragingly, zero walks.  LHP reliever Adam Kolarek followed by holding Greensboro to one run in five innings with zero walks and seven strikeouts.

@ Savannah Sand Gnats 2, Lexington Legends 0

In an 11 AM start, on a drizzly, warm day, LHP Angel Cuan allowed just one hit, that on a bunt on the wet grass in six innings of work fanning nine without issuing a walk.  There’s no magic to Cuan (9-1, 3.02), he throws lots of strikes with all three of his pitches and lets South Atlantic League hitters get themselves out.  I think, however, that his command, the ability to throw good strikes, has gotten a little better.  His last three starts: 1.50 ERA, 18 IP, 10 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 14 K.

Alonzo Harris (.273/.335/.339) tripled to deep center to drive home the Gnats’ first run.

We’re not on air for day games, so I hopped over to the other side of the pressbox to do PA for this one.  I do PA for college games and other events at the ballpark in the early spring fairly regularly, but I think it was the first time I’ve done PA for a minor league game since 2004.   It was fun in its way.

@ Savannah Sand Gnats 3, West Virginia Power 1

In a one-run game in the eighth, Alonzo Harris‘ inside-the-park home run added a nice insurance run for the Gnats.  All inside the park home runs are a combination of skill and fortuitous bounce and this one was no different.  Harris lofted a fly-ball to the leftfield corner and took off.  The Power leftfielder, Andy Vasquez jumped at the wall, but fell down.  The ball ricocheted off the wall back towards the infield.  Power SS Andrew Maggi almost made a sensational play, racing out to get the ball, fielding and firing a no-look strike off his back foot to the plate just a few moments too late to get the very speedy Harris.

Harris was 2-for-3 and drove home the Gnats’ first two runs of the night with a flared single down the right field line.  Now 21, Harris is hitting .271/.333/.322.  Last year with the Gnats he drew 20 walks in 105 games, this year, he’s drawn 19 in 67, well ahead of last year’s pace.  It’s a real and important improvement.  Also, believe it or not, his .271 batting average (yes, I know it’s a limited stat) leads the Gnats.  However, his power has disappeared though.  Last year, he had a .118 isolated slugging percentage while in 2011 it’s .051.  Can he add some of his pop back in to his more mature approach?

It certainly didn’t feel like Yohan Almonte had his good command early, but he fought through it against a soft West Virginia lineup to put up one of his better starts of the year: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.

Listen to the inside the park HR:

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The Games

- Dillon Gee threw five shutout innings for Buffalo in a 13-3 win Sunday. 3B Zach Lutz was 2-4 with a bomb while OF Kirk Niuewenhuis, who tripled, and INF Justin Turner were each 2-4.
I think this Bisons offense could be very, very good to start the year.
- The A-Ball split a pair of games this weekend winning Saturday by an 11-7 count and falling 3-2 Sunday.  Erik Goeddel started Sunday, it sure looks like he’ll be in the Savannah rotation to start the year.  Javier Rodriguez, who also seems destined for Savannah, was 3-3 with a double on Saturday.
Robbie Shields had multiple hits both days, playing short on Sunday after DHing Saturday.  The Mets have an interesting problem with Shields will be 23 on Opening Day.  Advanced-A seems like the right level for him, but Wilmer Flores is in front of him, and slated to play every at St. Lucie.

New Position for Zo
Alonzo Harris, who played 105 games at 2B for Savannah in 2010 said on his new twitter feed that he’s heading to the outfield.  ‘Zo hit just .224/.270/.342 for Savannah last year.

Blake Forsythe Interview

At Amazin’ Avenue, Rob Castellano caught up with 2010′s third-rounder Blake Forsythe who hit .238/.310/.396 in 30 games in Brooklyn with 41 strikeouts and 11 walks.
His best answer about his struggles in pro ball a year ago:

It helped me learn a lot of things about myself and about how the game is played at this level. … I put more work in it this offseason, I had a good offseason. I think I’m more prepared this year and I’m just looking forward to the season.

So I’ve slacked really hard on my position-by-position review of the Mets farm system.  Well, that and the team went out and hired a new General Manager and reshaped the entire front office, which is kind of a big deal.  I’m using these to start lining up my thinking for my overall rankings.  I want to finish the infield with shortstops and third baseman this week and finish the series the week after.

So, today we move on to second base.  Second base was a black hole for the Mets in 2010. By Fangraphs’ WAR, the team’s -0.4 WAR was the second-worst in all of baseball, ahead of only the Cleveland Indians.  The Mets’ keystoners combined on a .269 wOBA, making their offensive contribution dead last in all of baseball.   Since the Mets derived so little value from secondbase in 2010, it should be the easiest place to improve in 2011.

Is Ruben Tejada, who turned 21 four days before Halloween, the solution?  In 2010, while hitting .213/.305/.282, he was certainly part of the problem.  Did you realize that he hit .296/.377/.352 against lefthanders in 61 PA and an anemic .185/.282/.259 against righthanders in 194 PA?  In 2009, his OPS was 69 points better against lefties than righties in AA and in AAA it rose to 80 points before it exploded in the big leagues.  Also, while many Mets fans had understandably tuned out in September, Tejada hit .281/.354/.439 while playing everyday for the first time.  His BABIP was a healthy .321 and while his line drive rate nearly matched his other full big league months, his flyball rate of 53.8% was his highest of any major league month, while his ground ball rate of 27% was below 39% for the first time in a MLB month.  Is this all small sample size noise, or did Tejada really make an aggressive adjustment in September that helped him hit the ball in the air more?  Are more flyballs even desirable for a hitter like Tejada?
How about defensively?  In tiny samples, UZR thought Tejada’s defense was slightly above average at shortstop and below average at second.  That just doesn’t make sense.  I think Tejada can be an average or better defender at second, but it won’t matter if he can’t hit a little.  On that score, he’s young enough to continue to improve.  He’ll never be a star, but a cheap adequate second baseman would be a massive improvement for the Mets.  I don’t see Tejada providing that in 2011 yet.

What else?
Oh, Justin Turner. He’ll be 26 two days before Thanksgiving, but he hit .316/.374/.487 in 443 plate appearances in AAA.  Turner, who Baltimore Orioles waived back in May, earned Baseball America’s #27 ranking in the Orioles’ system after the 2008 season.  Per BA at that time, he’s a “below average runner,”  with “adequate” range which plays up thanks to strong instincts.   Like Tejada, Turner showed significant platoon splits this year: his OPS of 1.037 against leftiest was significantly better than his .845 against righties in AAA this year.  While Tejada might be the slicker defender, Turner at the present time, is a better hitter than Tejada who hit .280/.329/.344 in 65 games in AAA.

Moving down to AA, we find the best second base prospect in the system, at least, when he’s playing: Reese Havens.  In 18 games with the B-Mets, Havens, who turned 24 in October, hit an impressive .338/.400/.662.  Then he hurt his oblique and didn’t play again in 2010.  The Mets insist that he’ll be healthy and ready to go for spring training for 2011.  Havens has missed significant time in each of his three professional seasons, so before any fan gets excited and starts penciling him in to the big league lineup with just 68 at-bats above a-ball, lets see him play a healthy half-season first.  Still, with patience, power and enough range, Havens offers something to dream on.  As a left-handed hitter, Havens hits righties better than lefties so perhaps down the line, he and Tejada could find some sort of platoon that might provide pop and defense.

Josh Satin, began the year in St. Lucie where he hit .316/.406/.459 in 58 games, and he led the B-Mets in games played at second with 37.  He also played 34 games at first and five at third at AA.  He sprayed line drives around the field at a .308/.395/.472 rate in AA and has followed that up by hitting .417 in ten games in the AFL.  Satin’s batting average probably brings him a little more attention than he deserves.  After all, he’ll turn 26 two days before Christmas, so he’s always been old for the league, and is not considered a strong defender at second.  His power is limited, so his offensive game is all about contact and plate discipline.

Jordany Valdespin (pictured in 2009) finished the year in AA, forcing Satin to first, which should be some indication about which player the Mets value more highly.  Valdespin is three years to the day younger than Satin, and a far superior athlete.  He hit well enough in advanced a (.289/.323/.437) while walking never (8 times in 65 games) before struggling at .232/.243/.304 for a month in AA where he walked twice in 28 games.  Without impact power, any power with a walk once every two weeks will not be a productive big leaguer.  He left the Arizona Fall League early with a strained forearm after hitting .355/.395/.543 with 4 walks in 19 games

Speedy Alonzo Harris hit .224/.270/.342 for Savannah in 2010 as a 20-year old with 90 strikeouts in 105 games.  Not only did he not improve as the year went on, his numbers actually got worse, culminating in a .167/.220/.296 performance in 15 games in August before he was sidelined with a hamstring injury.  He has excellent range on pop ups into the shallow outfield and is willing to dive and give up his body defensively to make up for ordinary hands.  He might well be ticketed for a return to Savannah.

Down in Brooklyn, J.B. Brown, the Mets’ 14th round pick out of the University of the Pacific hit .308/.347/.453 for the Cyclones as a 21-year old.  He doesn’t have much in the way of secondary skills (power or speed) but he makes contact.

In Kingsport, Ray Van Gurp hit .271/.340/.376 as a 21-year old.  That’s old for the league.

So, if I had to rank Mets second base prospects, now I’d go something like:

• Reese Havens
• Ruben Tejada (for overall value, including as an MLB utility guy who can backup SS)
• Justin Turner
• Jordany Valdespin
• Alonzo Harris
• Josh Satin
• J.B. Brown

Note: 1. Robbie Shields and Wilfredo Tovar both could play second, but we’ll discuss them when I get to the Mets’ shortstops later this week.
2. Valdespin is rule 5 eligible this year if the Mets don’t place him on the 40-man roster.  I would not spend a roster spot on him yet, so there is some chance some other team likes the spring in his step, and he won’t be with the Mets organization in 2011.

AAA Buffalo Bisons
Saturday: @ Pawtucket Red Sox 6, Buffalo Bisons 4
Sunday: @ Pawtucket Red Sox 3, Buffalo Bisons 1

After two doubles on Saturday, Lucas Duda had his 11-game hitting streak snapped by Sunday’s 0-4 in which he played first after playing mostly LF for Buffalo.  Lest you forget, the 24-year old Duda is hitting .318/.389/.657 in 53 games in AAA.  His left/right splits remain almost amazing: .361/.427/.744 vs. RHP and .235/.316/.485 vs. LHP.  Those numbers point to something he does well – smack righties – and something that he doesn’t – hit lefties.
After consecutive 0-4 games Saturday and Sunday, Kirk Nieuwenhuis is hitting .275/.370/.450 in his first ten games at AAA.
The Bisons enter Monday three games behind Louisville in the IL Wild Card Hunt.
Saturday, Michael Antonini (1-1, 4.50): 6 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

AA Binghamton Mets
Saturday: @ Binghamton Mets 11, Reading Phillies 9
Sunday: PPD by Rain
Why wins are dumb, part eight million and one: Robert Carson: W, 5 IP, 11 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
Sean Ratliff (.335/.372/.620) was 3-5 with three singles.  That seems like a rare line for him; 33 of his 74 hits in AA have been doubles or homers.
3B Josh Satin (.325/.417/.485) was 2-4 with a home run.  He’s 25, but he just keeps hitting.  He’s a second baseman by trade, but can play a little first and third, which helps.
2B Jordany Valdespin was 0-1 before departing early.

A+ St. Lucie Mets
Saturday: @ Palm Beach Cardinals 3, St. Lucie Mets 2
Sunday: @ Port Charlotte Stone Crabs 8, St. Lucie Mets 7

Both recently promoted members of the Savannah bullpen, Erik Turgeon (Saturday) and Michael Powers (Sunday) gave up runs in the the opponents’ final turn at bat this weekend to take losses.
Saturday, Brad Holt: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 5 BB, 5 K.  That’s now 37 walks and 41 strikeouts in 49.1 innings in St. Lucie for Holt.  Last year in 43.1 innings, it was 13 walks against 54 strikeouts.
Sunday, DH Eric Campbell was 3-4 with a double in his seventh rehab game with St. Lucie.  He played LF Saturday.  Sunday was his first multi-hit affair and first with an extra-base hit. Wrist injuries are supposed to sap guys’ power.  How about broken fingers?  Bat control?

A – Savannah Sand Gnats
Saturday: @ Savannah Sand Gnats 8, Kannapolis Intimidators 2
Sunday: PPD by Rain.

This was a pretty complete game from the Gnats.
DH Robbie Shields (.267/.276/.407 – 20 games) was 2-5 with a line drive of a home run in the first inning that cleared the wall in left in a hurry.
2B Alonzo Harris (.236/.279/.363) had one of his better games of the year, going 3-5 with two doubles and a home run from the leadoff spot.
Taylor Whitenton (7-6, 4.00) struck out 11 in five innings shutout innings in which he gave up only one hit.  He relied heavily on his fastball, mostly up and out of the zone with two strikes.