#7 – Fernando Martinez
He’s an Astro now that the Mets have released him, in a decision I found perplexing at the time.  He would have fallen down the rankings, but remained in the top 20 on age, legacy of potential and in fact, underrated production at triple-A given his age.  Again, he showed above average power at AAA last year as measured by isolated slugging percentage.

#22 – Brad Emaus
The Mets gave him his chance out of spring training and he responded by hitting .162/.262/.162 in 42 plate appearances in 14 games in April before the team put him on waivers.  The Rockies traded minor leaguer Chris Malone to the Blue Jays for Emaus. Despite hitting .313/.389/.564 in 45 games for triple-A Colorado Springs, the Rockies were not interested in brining him up for another big league look and in fact might be interested in Justin Turner, reigniting the Mets’ thrilling 2011 open competition at second base.  (Correction: the Rockies traded Emaus to the Red Sox for a player to be named later or cash on January 11. He appears destined to be the Paw Sox starting 2B in the International League.)

#32 – Sean Ratliff
He’ll be 25 for Opening Day 2012 and is coming off a career threatening injury that including damage to his eye and eye socket.  When he last played, he combined to hit .298/.353/.505 with 21 homeruns over 130 games between A+ St. Lucie and AA Binghamton.

The bone has healed nicely, but his eye is not yet back to game ready.  He’s hoping it will be ready in time.

As he told Metsmerized online:

My vision has been steadily improving since my last surgery in late August, and is fairly close to hopefully being game ready by the time spring training ends.

Here is Ratliff explaining his surgery history:

I received an emergency laser repair for a giant retinal tear two days after my injury, which unfortunately did not hold. The Mets staff connected me with one of the premier retina hospitals in the nation, the Bascom-Palmer Eye Institute in Miami, where Dr. Harry Flynn performed my first major eye surgery. The recovery was 4-6 months with a follow up surgery at the completion of the recovery (from the first surgery), my final procedure in August. Now my recovery mainly consists of working with optometrists to find a custom contact lens that will bring my vision back to where it needs to be.

The bottom line is that at 25, he no longer has the upside of a regular, and the downside is that his vision doesn’t finish recovering to the point where he will ever play professional baseball again.  That stinks, but it’s a possibility.

#38 Robbie Shields
Injuries have robbed Robbie Shields of crucial development time.  He missed time in 2009 with Brooklyn, Tommy John Surgery cost him the first half of 2010, and then back pain cut his 2011 to just 80 games between Savannah and St. Lucie.  The bottom line is that he’ll be 24 in 2012 with just 20 games to his credit at the advanced-A level.

The Mets moved Shields from shortstop to second base because his range plays better on the right side of the diamond.  Add it all up, and he looks like organizational depth.

Each player’s name links back to his scouting report from last year.

#16 – Mark Cohoon
The command left-hander met his match in triple-A in 2011 after blowing through a-ball and double-A in 2010.  It wasn’t only that he ran an ERA of 6.11, but the manner in which he did it.  Batters collected 120 hits in 94.1 innings, and his K/BB was just 1.3 behind a K/9 of 4.9.  As wonderful a story as Cohoon has been, I just don’t see big league value here.

#21 – Manny Alvarez
After a great 2010, Debbie Downer was concerned that Alvarez was a “one-year wonder.”  She looks awfully prescient.  After 10 unimpressive innings between double-A and triple-A, Alvarez hurt his elbow in May and disappeared for the year.

#24 – Steven Matz
Matz, the Mets second-round pick in 2009, Matz missed the 2010 and 2011 seasons recovering from May 2010 Tommy John surgery.  Most pitchers bounce back fully from the TJ procedure, but remember that Matz was a prospect before the surgery, and would have needed considerable development time before he was potentially close to big league-ready.

It’s not only that I do not know how he’ll look when he comes back, he doesn’t either.

#25 – Josh Stinson
“But Toby, he made his Major League debut on September 2, 2011.  He had a good year.”  True, and false.

Stinson made his MLB debut on 9/2/11 at Washington.  In 13 big league innings, he gave up 10 runs on 14 hits with seven walks and eight strikeouts.  That’s not why I’m bailing on Stinson.  Nope, it’s the ordinary numbers at double-A and bad numbers at triple-A.  In 61.2 innings with Buffalo, he gave up 77 hits, walked 33 and fanned 32.  More walks than strikeouts at AAA.  No thanks.
With an average fastball at 93 mph, Stinson is a four-pitch guy with a slider, and seldom used curveball and changeup.

#26 – Brad Holt
It’s been a pretty dramatic fall from grace from Brad Holt who I had at #3, #7 and #26 in the system in the last three years.

In his third try at double-A, Holt put up his best ERA at the level, but his walk rate (5.5 BB/9; 13%) still was ugly.  He fanned 7.1 batters per nine (17.5%), which hardly portends greatness.  In fact, one of the remarkable things about Holt is how consistent his strikeout rate at double-A has been, from 18.2% in 2009, to 16% in 2010.

He doesn’t have a special pitch.  The fastball has lost velocity and sits around 92.

#29 – Kyle Allen
I essentially gave Allen a pass on a bad 2010 when he had issued one more walk than strikeout on the theory that he was having back problems.  The bad news: he repeated his 2010 walk rate of 11.8% to the decimal point in 2011.  More bad news: he gave up 131 hits in 106 innings pitched on his way to a 6.28 ERA.

#35 – Nick Carr
I just don’t know what to do with Nick Carr anymore.  He had his best season in the Florida State League in 2011 (2.40 ERA, 10.2 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 in 30 IP) in his FOURTH try at the league.

#39 – Jimmy Fuller
The little lefty missed the entire 2011 season with a shoulder injury.

#41 – Zach Dotson
GCL: 2 G, 1 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 5 BB, 3 WP.  The Mets spent $500,000 to sign their 14^th round pick in 2009.  So far, he’s a useful reminder that going over slot is no guarantee of success.

#11 – Dillon Gee

A year ago, Dr. Pangloss said, “Gee won’t be any kind of star, but could well stick as a competent (and cheap) fourth or fifth starter.”

Indeed, Gee pretty much was a bottom-end fifth starter. His 4.43 ERA nearly perfectly matched his 4.46 xFIP, and was slightly below his 4.65 FIP for a 84 ERA+.  In total, he put up a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.6 BRefWAR.  With basic rates of 6.39 K/9 and a 3.98 BB/9 or a 10% walk rate and a 16% strikeout rate, he is a back-end kind of starter.

#15 – Pedro Beato

Hi, I’m a middle reliever – 4.30 ERA, 4.64 xFIP and a -0.3 fWAR and -0.3 BRef WAR.  He fanned 5.2 batters/9 IP, walked 3.6 or in percentage terms fanned 13.8% and walked 9.5% of batters faced.

A year ago, Debbie Downer wrote, “His K/rate of 7.5 at AA was a little ordinary for my taste.”

Sure, mid-90s heat is great, but the fastball is better than the whole package now.  Beato will be fighting hard for the Mets’ last bullpen spot, and might well land back in Buffalo, now that he’s no longer subject to the Rule 5 roster restrictions, to refine his game to start 2012.

We’ll start with the three MLB graduates on the position side.

#9 – Lucas Duda

A year ago, I nominated Lucas Duda to be the Mets’ starting right fielder if  Carlos Beltran was injured on Opening Day.  As it turned out, that was unnecessary – Beltran was healthy and effective in the first half.  However, when he was called upon, Duda hit a solid .292/.370/.482 in 100 games.  Sure enough, his defense (-11.8) UZR ate away at his overall value, but he’s a valuable and cheap piece for the Mets moving forward.

#17 – Justin Turner

I thought Turner would make a strong platoon-partner with Daniel Murphy at second base.  That platoon never really materialized.  Once the Mets tired of the Brad Emaus experiment, Turner played second nearly every day in May while putting together a 325/.378/.458 month with eight doubles and yes, 20 RBI that made him an early media darling.

The bad news?  His OPS peaked at .962 on May 20 when he was hitting .364/.417/.545, and it was more or less all downhill from there, permanently dropping below the .800 mark on June 4 and the .750 mark a few days later.  He flirted with a .700 OPS the rest of the way, finishing at .690 as part of a .260/.334/.356 campaign.  From May 21 through the final day of the regular season, he hit .245/.322/.329.

MLB second basemen hit .260/.320/.389 in 2011, so taking Turner’s season as a whole, he produced above average on-base skills, but below average power for the position.

Turner fared poorly by the defensive metrics as well, with BIS’s defensive runs saved putting him at -11 runs for the season and UZR at -10.

Combine average-ish offensive production with below average defense, with the ability to back up shortstop, and he looks like a bench piece or, perhaps a trade chip moving forward, rather than a long term answer at second.

#20 – Ruben Tejada

Ruben Tejada posted the fifth-best fWAR among Mets’ position players in 2011 at 1.8 behind Jose Reyes (6.2), Carlos Beltran (3.4), Daniel Murphy (3.2) and David Wright (1.9).  At 96 games played, Tejada played the fewest games as a Met, of any member of that quintet.

Ultimate Zone Rating putting Tejada 1.1 runs to the good, or about 11 runs, while Defensive runs saved has him a run below average at shortstop.  Call it a wash, and say he played something around average shortstop.

Bottom line, a .360 on-base percentage with average defense at short is very valuable.  Now, if he could only slug his on-base percentage, the Mets would really have something.  At 22, he should get a little stronger, and could well continue to develop offensively.

It’s a pretty stunning fall from grace for Martinez, who was not just a consensus Top 100 prospect in baseball, but ranked in the top 30 by Baseball America for three years running from 2007 to 2009.  The bottom line has been that he’s been injured every single season of his professional career (here’s the nasty history), and hasn’t hit that much when he has been on the field.  In his first 145 MLB PA, he’s hit .183/.250/.290.

However, over three seasons in AAA, his age 20, 21, and 22 years he’s hit .265/.326/.465.  That’s a .200 isolated slugging percentage if you’re playing along at home.  The International League average was .140.  So even while playing as one of the youngest players in the IL, he was producing (when he played) above average power.  Sure, it hadn’t translated to the big leagues yet, and it might never.

I just find this whole little episode stunning. Giving up Martinez for nothing just seems odd. Surely Martinez was worth something, like a live arm or two, on the trade market. Moreover, there is still slack on the Mets 40-man roster. This feels a little bit like the Omar Minaya days when the Mets often seemed out of line with the way teams valued assets (hello, 4 years and $25 million for Luis Castillo).  The Astros, and as the rumor goes, at least five teams were interested in Martinez, and the Mets got nothing.

Who was the top prospect like Martinez where a team just gave up at this point when the player still had an option remaining? I’m drawing a blank.  Anyone?

Further Reading

Ted wrote about some of the disappointment of Martinez’s exit.  I’m not crazy about the idea of Fernando Martinez, “Organizational Metaphor,” but it’s a fun read.

TH: From reader UBE 13: How come Lagares over Puello and Nieuwenhuis [pictured at right], given that Lagares’s success is almost solely BABIP driven?

KG: Well, nobody is saying Lagares is going to hit .370. But he does have a better hit tool then Puello or Capt. Kirk, and that matters, and none of them is going to be a center fielder in the big leagues. Puello is still far more tools than reality, and his approach is a complete mess, while Nieuwenhuis is certainly the most likely to have a career, but the ceiling is questionable.

TH: As a follow-up from me, you wrote that Lagares could grow into 15-18 HR annually, while his career-high is nine from 2011. Nieuwenhuis has a couple of 15+ HR seasons to his credit in 2009 and 2010. Do you think Nieuwenhuis, who’s about a year and a half older, has come closer to maxing out his power development?

KG: I do. The thing about Nieuwenhuis is that he’s kind of a what you see is what you get type. There are so few weaknesses in his game, but no star-level tools either.

TH: Dave in Spain wants to know: Which prospect in this Top 20 has the best chance of shooting up the rankings this year? Who could drop off the radar completely?

Kevin: Well, first off, tell Dave that he is in friggin’ SPAIN, and has better things to do than worry about Mets prospects.

TH: like drink good spanish wine, and eat delish spanish cheese?

KG: Or just, you know, hang out in Spain.

KG: Akeel Morris has really great stuff and it all looks right and will a few refinements, I could see him moving up significantly next year. As far as the opposite goes, I realize he’s young, but at some point Wilmer Flores has to hit to the position he’s going to end up at.

TH: Good answers. I’ve been getting lots of Valdespin questions. You have him ranked as a 2B. I’ve never talked to anyone outside the Mets organization who thinks he can play shortstop. Have you?

Kevin: Not really. One of those frustrating types who has the athetlicism for the position, but just can’t play it.

TH: And because of this, and the fact that he has some strike zone control, I still have Reese Havens ahead of Valdespin. You went tools of Valdespin. Am I just being stubborn? How hard a decision was this for you, recognizing that they’re separated only by Jenrry Mejia’s surgically repaired UCL in your rankings?

KG: Havens is incredibly hard to rank, at least for me. What do you do with a player like that? Like I wrote, if he had been healthy throughout his career, he’s already be the Mets second baseman, and probably an established one. But here we are, and he misses 80 games a year. His career high is 97, and that’s three years ago now. What do we do with that?

TH: Hope he doesn’t develop arthritis like Fernando Martinez? Sorry, cheap Mets joke.

KG: Exactly. At some point it’s going to take it’s toll.

TH: The perfectgame wants to know: “Did you give C Albert Cordero any consideration for a spot at the back end of your Top 20? Cordero and LHP Josh Edgin, while neither a top prospect, are two of the guys I’m most interested in following this season. Any thoughts on either player?” I know Edgin was your sleeper

KG: Edgin was my sleeper, and I know the Mets think he can move quickly, and scouts agree. As for Cordero, he not only received consideration, he was the LAST cut from the list, so he’s No. 21.

TH: As long as we’re on guys who missed. I think I’m the highest on Aderlin Rodriguez of anyone still out there. I get the negatives: the batting average was iffy this year, he swings all the time, he struggles at third. Still, he has significantly more power than Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte, both of whom still land in your Top 20. How much did Rodriguez miss by?

Kevin: He would have been in the 20s. I just don’t think he’s anything more than a 1B, and 1B can’t have the kind of holes in their game that he does.

TH: So the implied logic is that you give Marte a better chance of staying at third than Rodriguez?

Kevin: and a batter chance to hit more than his weight.

TH: Ooof.

Kevin: Look, Aderlin has CRAZY raw power, but that’s it. Every other aspect of his game is a mess right now.

TH: Yeah. I think I’ve written nearly that exact sentence. I saw a lot of Aderlin in 2011.

KG: Sure, you know him as good as anyone. You’ve seen the mess and once ever eight days he hits a ball 430 feet.

TH: Pretty much. With lots of pop-ups in between. I guess for me, he has a plus, if not better, MLB tool. I’m not sure Marte does. And Aderlin’s arm is better.

Kevin: Marte is at 17, and that was a late surge. A couple of scouts in the Arizona Fall League had good things to say about him, at least offensively, so I put him up there, to the chagrin of our Cordero fan.

TH: Ha. Right.

TH: More from reader UBE13: Do you hold out any hope for Cory Vaughn?

KG: minor, tiny hope

TH: Ok, lets step back a moment from individual guys. Is there anything that made the Mets list particularly difficult from your perspective?

KG: Not really. They’re all hard, you know? I flip them all over the place and talk to a lot of people and I’m never 100% comfortable. But there was nothing specific to the Mets list.

me: Thank you!

Kevin: no problem

TH: Lets start at the top. How close was Harvey [pictured at right] and Wheeler at #1 for you, and should Mets fans worry about the difference?

KG: They really shouldn’t. My Top 101 isn’t out yet, but I can tell you that the two are a whopping five slots apart. I went back and forth on them plenty of times and if I did this again in four weeks, maybe Wheeler would be one. They really are that close.

TH: Ok. Same theme. I’ve got Jeurys Familia ahead of Wheeler because 1. he’s had success at AA and 2. throws more consistently harder. Looks like you took Wheeler’s upside. How far apart in some prospect-y world do you have Familia?

KG: Pretty far between Wheeler and Familia for me — hold on one sec. So Familia is good, but what’s good? It’s a fastball that’s arguably better than Harvey or Wheeler, but the secondary stuff is not as good, and with the delivery and the arm soreness, you have to wonder if he’s not just a reliever in the end. It’s at least in the back of your mind, and that matters.

TH: Fair. How much did Jenrry Mejia’s TJ surgery affect his prospect ranking?

KG: It has to play a role, just in the sense that even though the recovery rate for that is fantastic, it’s not 100% and that kind of thing, like Familia, creates questions about future role. Not every pitcher is designed to throw 200 innings a year. In fact, few are.

TH:  I like this question, from reader Sylvan: Is there anyone outside of your top 20 who struck you as having especially high upside (but, presumably, too far from the majors to earn a spot on the list)?

KG: How about Domingo Tapia, just as a highly projectable righty with upside.

TH: Yup. How about a ceiling and then a “most realistic” outcome for Darin Gorski?

KG: That’s a helluva start.

TH:  ?

KG: I’m kind of laughing because ceiling is No. 4 or 5 starter and that might be the most realistic outcome too. That or a middle reliever.
TH: Chris Schwinden snuck onto the back of your Top 20 list. Really a fifth starter? I figured he’d be a 27th man on the roster, bouncing between AAA and the big leagues.

Kevin: Possibly a fifth starter, and close enough that I was comfortable putting him there.

So here it is. Fernando Martinez’s gory injury history. Note that only twice in six seasons has he finished the season healthy.

For each of the major injuries I’ve included the major associated disabled list period and the number of games that covers. These underestimate the amount of time he’s lost to injury because often the Mets hesitated to put him on the disabled list, or he played through some kind of pain. This 2006 article, for example, notes that his first disabled list trip for his thumb with a strained ligament/deep bruise, was actually the third time he had missed time for the injury.

2006
Bone bruise/strained ligaments right thumb (5/10 – 6/7)  - missed 26 games
Right knee sprain (6/10 – 7/18) – 34 games
– played in 76 total games

2007
Right hand injury – broken hamate bone – missed 72 games
-       Did not appear in double-A after 6/23
-       Played three rehab games in GCL 7/29-8/16
– played in 63 total games

2008
Right hamstring strain – (5/15 – 6/27, 7/25-8/4) missed 54 games
played 9/1 – Last time he finished a season healthy
– played in 90 total games

2009
Right elbow strain (February – rest three weeks)
Knee surgery July 14 – Torn Meniscus.
-   Did not play again after July 3
– played in 74 total games

2010
Left hamstring strain (5/14 – 6/7) – missed 23 games
Right knee “soreness” (8/25 – end of season) – missed 15 games
Arthritis diagnosed – November
– played in 82 total games

2011
Right Hamstring Strain (4/13-4/23) – missed 10 games
Left Hip Flexor Strain (7/16-7/30) – missed 14 games
Left Wrist Strain (8/16- end of season) – missed 21 games
– played in 74 total games

As crazy as this sounds, I still think I’m missing some nicks along the way.  Tell me what I missed, and I’ll update as appropriate.

But maybe everything is not lost.   If you can hit, they’ll find a place for your bat.

In the recently completed Venezuelan Winter League season, he hit safely in 14 of his final 15 games to pull his season line as a Bravo to .301/.382/.391 in 133 AB over 41 games.   On its surface that’s not far from his 2010 in the VWL when he hit .320/.365/.437 in 103 AB over 31 games.  Now look past the batting average.  Flores’ walk rate of 11.2% this year would easily have been his career-high in a minor league season.

Take a look at his walk, strikeout and extra-base hit rates for his last two seasons (including winter ball):

That 2011 VWL walk rate sure sticks out, doesn’t it?  On the other hand, it came at the expense of an increase in his strikeout rate to a still very manageable 17%.  This makes sense as a tradeoff for seeing more pitches.  Also, it’s nice to see a ballplayer doing something differently than he had previously.  It’s hard, if not impossible, to learn new things while doing the same old thing over and over again.

Where has the power gone?  Thats a really,  really good question.  Given his eventual move from shortstop, at some point, he’ll need to start driving the ball to be a really good prospect, or major leaguer.

Still one thing at a time, here, and the increased patience he showed in the Caribbean is a welcome development.

Sandygetsabminussofar asks:

Oakland recently dfa’d powell+miller, as a result of the gonzalez+cahill trades…any chance that the mets are interested in some cheap younger players with professional experience (rather than foolishly giving up something significant for a seth smith)? Also, with the understanding that every GM values every player differently, now that we have seen what gonzalez+latos got back for their teams, if niese could even come close to that, how can the mets not pull the trigger, if they are offered similar value?

The DFAs

We’ll answer the first part of the question first.  B-minus is referring to catcher Landon Powell and outfielder Jai Miller from the A’s.  Both players would be reasonable fits for the Mets on a minor league contract.  The Mets currently have 40 players on their 40-man roster, and I don’t see them dropping anyone for either player.

In addition to Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas, who are on the 40-man, the Mets will bring a cast of thousands (or at least three) of Lucas May, Vinny Rottino and now Rob Johnson to spring training competing to be a backup catcher with the losers enjoying the sights and sounds of Buffalo and the Eastern League.  Johnson lest you forget is a career .197/.275/.297 hitter.  Ben Lindbergh skewers the Johnson, who also performs poorly in BP’s catcher receiving and framing metrics, noting that, “any exposure to Johnson can be hazardous.”  Powell will be 30 in 2012 and has hit a whopping .207/.284/.328 in 406 MLB PA.  He’s listed at 6’3″ 265, and has always been, ahem, big, which has limited his agility behind the plate and his defensive ability.  Again, just not worth a 40-man roster spot at this point.

Miller, a natural centerfielder, who can play all three outfield positions, is a little more interesting.  He’ll be 27 in 2012, and has bopped .271/.351/.516 over parts of four triple-A seasons.  He’s walked in a healthy 9% of his plate appearances, but with 550 strikeouts in 423 games, has whiffed in 27.5% of his AAA plate appearances.  MLB pitchers have exploited these hacktastic tendencies to hold him to a .235/.288/.368 line, but that’s just 73 PA.  He’s probably on his way to becoming a AAA legend, Valentino Pascucci-style.

The Niese Comps

Yes, if Niese could produce a return similar to either Mat Latos or Gio Gonzalez, of course, the Mets would be interested in trading him.  Here’s the thing: the other two pitchers are better than Niese.

Lets compare:

……………………2010-11 WAR               2010-11 ERA+ (weighted by IP)

Niese                       4.6                                        89
Latos                      7.2                                       113
Gonzalez                 6.7                                        128

You can argue whether you’d prefer Latos or Gonzalez, but Niese is clearly the third-best pitcher of the trio, and its a fairly significant gap.  Dave Cameron also argues here that Gonzalez, if he can cut his walk rate, offers even more upside as well, but expecting a drop in his walk rate is a stretch.

Tug wants to know:

A follow up to SandyB-, what’s your take on the prospect quality the Nats gave up for Gio? Can you suggest what a comparable package from the Mets might have been? Not in favor of making such a trade, but curious. thanks.

The A’s received four players, RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Brad Peacock, C-r Derek Norris and LHP Tom Milone.

At BP, Kevin Goldstein praised the return the A’s received as lacking “one elite prospect, [but] they received a trio of four-star level players and a usable extra arm.”

The Mets don’t have a catcher of the caliber of Norris.  Lets get that out of the way.  He’s a patient and powerful catcher, who’s produced at AA.

Cole is a high-upside a-ball arm, Peacock is a likely mid-rotation piece and Milone could be a swing-man.

The Mets equivalent package is something like Matt Harvey or Jeurys Familia, Zack Wheeler, Cesear Puello and then Darin Gorski or Collin McHugh.  Frankly, I think the Nationals package is better.