I wasn’t going to do this. Really. Blame my friend who asked the question whether I had a comprehensive list of Fernando Martinez’s maladies.

So here it is. Fernando Martinez’s gory injury history. Note that only twice in six seasons has he finished the season healthy.

For each of the major injuries I’ve included the major associated disabled list period and the number of games that covers. These underestimate the amount of time he’s lost to injury because often the Mets hesitated to put him on the disabled list, or he played through some kind of pain. This 2006 article, for example, notes that his first disabled list trip for his thumb with a strained ligament/deep bruise, was actually the third time he had missed time for the injury.

2006
Bone bruise/strained ligaments right thumb (5/10 – 6/7)  - missed 26 games
Right knee sprain (6/10 – 7/18) – 34 games
– played in 76 total games

2007
Right hand injury – broken hamate bone – missed 72 games
-       Did not appear in double-A after 6/23
-       Played three rehab games in GCL 7/29-8/16
– played in 63 total games

2008
Right hamstring strain – (5/15 – 6/27, 7/25-8/4) missed 54 games
played 9/1 – Last time he finished a season healthy
– played in 90 total games

2009
Right elbow strain (February – rest three weeks)
Knee surgery July 14 – Torn Meniscus.
-   Did not play again after July 3
– played in 74 total games

2010
Left hamstring strain (5/14 – 6/7) – missed 23 games
Right knee “soreness” (8/25 – end of season) – missed 15 games
Arthritis diagnosed – November
– played in 82 total games

2011
Right Hamstring Strain (4/13-4/23) – missed 10 games
Left Hip Flexor Strain (7/16-7/30) – missed 14 games
Left Wrist Strain (8/16- end of season) – missed 21 games
– played in 74 total games

As crazy as this sounds, I still think I’m missing some nicks along the way.  Tell me what I missed, and I’ll update as appropriate.

It’s easy to be negative about the prospect status of shortstop Wilmer Flores.  Matt touched on this at Metsblog, and Kevin Goldstein wrote about him at Prospectus.  Reasonably, Every prospect ranking so far has him ranked lower this year than last year.  He hit only .269/.309/.380 in 133 games in the Florida State League in 2011, and will have to move off of shortstop.  Goldstein pulled a more damning quote from an “evaluator”: “The tools don’t even profile for a corner, which is where people will think he’ll end up.”

But maybe everything is not lost.   If you can hit, they’ll find a place for your bat.

In the recently completed Venezuelan Winter League season, he hit safely in 14 of his final 15 games to pull his season line as a Bravo to .301/.382/.391 in 133 AB over 41 games.   On its surface that’s not far from his 2010 in the VWL when he hit .320/.365/.437 in 103 AB over 31 games.  Now look past the batting average.  Flores’ walk rate of 11.2% this year would easily have been his career-high in a minor league season.

Take a look at his walk, strikeout and extra-base hit rates for his last two seasons (including winter ball):

That 2011 VWL walk rate sure sticks out, doesn’t it?  On the other hand, it came at the expense of an increase in his strikeout rate to a still very manageable 17%.  This makes sense as a tradeoff for seeing more pitches.  Also, it’s nice to see a ballplayer doing something differently than he had previously.  It’s hard, if not impossible, to learn new things while doing the same old thing over and over again.

Where has the power gone?  Thats a really,  really good question.  Given his eventual move from shortstop, at some point, he’ll need to start driving the ball to be a really good prospect, or major leaguer.

Still one thing at a time, here, and the increased patience he showed in the Caribbean is a welcome development.

Yesterday, I asked what you wanted me to write about.  So today, I’ll answer some questions.

Sandygetsabminussofar asks:

Oakland recently dfa’d powell+miller, as a result of the gonzalez+cahill trades…any chance that the mets are interested in some cheap younger players with professional experience (rather than foolishly giving up something significant for a seth smith)? Also, with the understanding that every GM values every player differently, now that we have seen what gonzalez+latos got back for their teams, if niese could even come close to that, how can the mets not pull the trigger, if they are offered similar value?

The DFAs

We’ll answer the first part of the question first.  B-minus is referring to catcher Landon Powell and outfielder Jai Miller from the A’s.  Both players would be reasonable fits for the Mets on a minor league contract.  The Mets currently have 40 players on their 40-man roster, and I don’t see them dropping anyone for either player.

In addition to Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas, who are on the 40-man, the Mets will bring a cast of thousands (or at least three) of Lucas May, Vinny Rottino and now Rob Johnson to spring training competing to be a backup catcher with the losers enjoying the sights and sounds of Buffalo and the Eastern League.  Johnson lest you forget is a career .197/.275/.297 hitter.  Ben Lindbergh skewers the Johnson, who also performs poorly in BP’s catcher receiving and framing metrics, noting that, “any exposure to Johnson can be hazardous.”  Powell will be 30 in 2012 and has hit a whopping .207/.284/.328 in 406 MLB PA.  He’s listed at 6’3″ 265, and has always been, ahem, big, which has limited his agility behind the plate and his defensive ability.  Again, just not worth a 40-man roster spot at this point.

Miller, a natural centerfielder, who can play all three outfield positions, is a little more interesting.  He’ll be 27 in 2012, and has bopped .271/.351/.516 over parts of four triple-A seasons.  He’s walked in a healthy 9% of his plate appearances, but with 550 strikeouts in 423 games, has whiffed in 27.5% of his AAA plate appearances.  MLB pitchers have exploited these hacktastic tendencies to hold him to a .235/.288/.368 line, but that’s just 73 PA.  He’s probably on his way to becoming a AAA legend, Valentino Pascucci-style.

The Niese Comps

Yes, if Niese could produce a return similar to either Mat Latos or Gio Gonzalez, of course, the Mets would be interested in trading him.  Here’s the thing: the other two pitchers are better than Niese.

Lets compare:

……………………2010-11 WAR               2010-11 ERA+ (weighted by IP)

Niese                       4.6                                        89
Latos                      7.2                                       113
Gonzalez                 6.7                                        128

You can argue whether you’d prefer Latos or Gonzalez, but Niese is clearly the third-best pitcher of the trio, and its a fairly significant gap.  Dave Cameron also argues here that Gonzalez, if he can cut his walk rate, offers even more upside as well, but expecting a drop in his walk rate is a stretch.

Tug wants to know:

A follow up to SandyB-, what’s your take on the prospect quality the Nats gave up for Gio? Can you suggest what a comparable package from the Mets might have been? Not in favor of making such a trade, but curious. thanks.

The A’s received four players, RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Brad Peacock, C-r Derek Norris and LHP Tom Milone.

At BP, Kevin Goldstein praised the return the A’s received as lacking “one elite prospect, [but] they received a trio of four-star level players and a usable extra arm.”

The Mets don’t have a catcher of the caliber of Norris.  Lets get that out of the way.  He’s a patient and powerful catcher, who’s produced at AA.

Cole is a high-upside a-ball arm, Peacock is a likely mid-rotation piece and Milone could be a swing-man.

The Mets equivalent package is something like Matt Harvey or Jeurys Familia, Zack Wheeler, Cesear Puello and then Darin Gorski or Collin McHugh.  Frankly, I think the Nationals package is better.

Tucked away in Matt’s post about the Mets getting tied into the rumors of teams involved in the Gio Gonzalez from the A’s is this note:

I’ve heard from more than one person that the Mets have had substantive talks about Niese with the Jays, who have also been mentioned repeatedly in rumors involving Gonzalez. The people I’ve talked with say the Mets like Jays C Travis d’Arnaud, as do many other teams.

Gio Gonzalez is obviously the headiner here for most people with ERAs of 3.23 and 3.12 the last two years and with 200 IP to his credit fWAR of 3.2 and 3.5 for Oakland.  By contrast, Niese’ ERA has been above 4 for the Mets each of the last two years and his combined fWAR in the last two seasons is 4.6. Gonzalez is better, but not by a huge amount.

I’m not sure how it would happen, but if the Mets could sneak into this deal as part of a three-way deal and end up with C Travis D’Arnaud, that would be quite a coup.  D’Arnaud has a chance to be a star.  In 2011, at age 22, he hit .311/.371/.542 with 33 doubles and 21 home runs for AA Eastern League Champion New Hampshire and won the league’s MVP award.  In the EL, he was fifth in batting average, fourth in homers, fifth in extra-base hits, second in slugging percentage and fifth in total bases. Baseball America named him the EL’s second best prospect and reported that his defense has improved.

In his discussion of minor league MVPs at Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein also lavished high praise on D’Arnaud:

There are legitimate knocks against him, including an impatient approach, a need to improve his throwing mechanics, and a tendency to get hurt, but d’Arnaud is nearly universally seen as one of the top three catching prospects in the game.

Originally a first round pick of the Philadelphia Phillies in 2007, D’Arnaud was part of the package the Phillies sent Toronto, along with Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor for Roy Halladay.  A back injury held him back in 2010.

If the Mets can pull a D’Arnaud-centered package for Jon Niese, I whole-heartedly approve.  And of course, this is all rumor-mongering, so there’s probably nothing here.

Lets talk about the guys who could be squatting behind the plate for the Mets in 2011, when Josh Thole isn’t.

At Amazin’ Avenue, Chris McShane runs through the free agent options.  Note the defense table carefully.  Of the remaining free agents, only two were above average in Framing Runs, Blocking Runs and Denfensive runs for the last four years: Ronny Paulino and Ivan Rodriguez.  No, that doesn’t address the game-calling issue, but I do think Paulino is taking an unfair amount of heat for his defensive shortcomings.

Ted Berg introduced the Mets world to Lucas May, focusing on his L/R splits and his apparent, consistent, repeated ability to hit left-handed pitching.  Then there’s Mike Nickeas, who doesn’t hit at all, but plays good defense.

The Mets also signed Vinny Rottino this winter.  It wasn’t a sexy signing, but the 31-year old might earn a roster spot with his versatility.  He played 39 games behind the plate for the New Orleans Zephyrs, the Marlins AAA team this past year and 66 in left field.  Oh, and he hit .304/.374/.443 in the worst environment for hitters in the PCL.  Notably, he also crushed lefties, going .353/.394/.454 against them in 119 AB in 2011.  This wasn’t a one-year fluke either.  He bopped .323/.428/.511 in 133 AB vs. lefties in AA in 2010.

On the minor league side, the pipeline is barely dripping.  The Mets’ top catching prospect in my humble opinion is Albert Cordero, and he played 2011 in Savannah, putting him years away from the big leagues.  I touched on the important guys who played catcher in the full-season leagues here, in the short-season leagues here and ranked them here.

If I were to place a bet, I would bet against the Mets signing another catcher to a Major League contract before Opening Day 2012.  I think they’ll wing it with Thole, and the combination of Nickeas, May and Rottino.

Ok, so there’s no pipeline.  This was just a cheap excuse to use the word pipeline in a post, which I’ve now done repeatedly.

There used to be a club/music venue in Hawaii, on Oahu called the Pipeline, which apparently has closed.  That’s sad.  I saw Mos Def there in 2007.  Anyway, the vowels were pronounced as though they belonged to a traditional Hawaiian word, so it sounded something like Pipi – lin-ay.  It’s a much cooler way to say the word than in standard English.

Today is the deadline for the Mets to tender an offer to their remaining arbitration eligible players, including Mike Pelfrey, Manny Acosta, Ronny Paulino and newly acquired Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez.  The very, very safe money is on the Mets tendering contracts to Pelfrey, Acosta, Torres and Ramirez.  Paulino is the question mark.  According to Metsblog, it is now “likely” that he won’t be tendered a contract.  This is a mistake.

If the Mets do not plan on going outside the organization for another catching option, they should retain Paulino.  It’s actually not really a tough call.  As Adam Rubin put it, at ESPNNY,  ”a team source said at the winter meetings in Dallas last week that the organization had all but resolved to stay internal with its major league catching for 2012 because the free agents had warts as well and the preference was to concentrate the available dollars on bullpen spending.”

For all the concerns about his game-calling, he still beats up lefties.  He hit .289/.363/.389 vs. lefties in 2011, which is below his career-level of .330/.385/.475 in 634 PA.    There isn’t a lot to go on for Josh Thole, but in 84 PA vs. MLB lefties, he’s hit a measly .162/.253/.216.  We run into nasty small splits in his minor league career (he had just 30 AB vs. lefties in AAA, but hit just .233/.361/.367 against him).  Moving back to his last full minor league season of 2009, he hit .328/.391/.388 vs. lefties in 116 AB as compared to .328/.396/.437 in 268 AB vs. righties.

Coming off a year when he made $1.35 million, Paulino should be in line for some kind of raise, perhaps even up to $1.5 million.  That seems reasonable enough.

The internal option is 29-year old Mike Nickeas.  The same guy who hit .189/.246/.264 in 53 AB over 21 games in the big leagues last year.  The same guy who hit .214/.286/.304 in 168 AB for AAA Buffalo with a slightly less depressing .240/.273/.360 in 50 AB vs. lefties in AAA.  Sorry, that’s not an MLB hitter, not even as a backup catcher.  A converted infielder, he’s acquired a nice defensive reputation.  Paulino will be available for roughly one million more dollars and would actually provide some offensive value.

The external options are unappealing.  The 31-year old Kelly Shoppach?  Dude’s hit under .200 each of the last two years, most recently putting together a .176/.268/.339 line in Tampa last year and .241/.344/.444 vs. lefties.  So, yeah, that’ll play.  But again, he’s an external option.  Also, Shoppach made $3 million last year, so it stands to reason he’ll be looking for a similar amount this time around.

40-year old Ivan Rodriguez? Pass.  39-year old Jason Varitek?  Pass.

Paulino will be cheap, and will still hit lefties.  Nickeas will be cheaper (by about a million dollars) but might not hit at all.  Is his defense that much better?  I struggle to imagine so.  The Mets would be wise to bring back Paulino as Thole’s platoon partner.

The 2011 version of baseball’s Rule Five Draft has quietly come and gone sneaking around the shadows of the Angels’ $325+ spending spree Thursday morning on Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson.  The Mets did not add a player in the MLB phase or either of the two minor league phases of the draft.  Instead, they lost two hard-throwing relievers with control problems and an organizational depth type for catcher.

The Mets did not have space to add a player to the MLB 40-man roster.  Once they add Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco, they’ll be up to 41 players, so they’ll need to trade or designate someone to free up a spot already.  Thus, any player they would have added would have had to have been clearly better than someone on the 25-man roster.

Rhiner Cruz
With the first pick in the MLB phase of the draft, the Astros scooped up Mets hard-throwing reliever Rhiner Cruz.  In 36 appearances out of the double-A Binghamton bullpen in 2011, Cruz owned a 4.14 ERA in 58.2 innings.  His biggest problem: walks, 39 of ‘em for a 6.0 BB/9.  He was tough to hit (just 43 hits or 6.6 H/9) and missed bats (51 or 7.8 K/9).  Cruz was sitting 94-96 mph with his fastball and touching 97 this summer according to Mike Diaz.

With the Gigantes del Cibao in the DWL this year, Cruz has shown all of the same features: few hits, lots of walks and some strikeouts.  He’s put up a 1.29 ERA in 14 innings with five hits, two runs, NINE walks and 14 strikeouts. If you’re playing along at home, that’s a 5.8 BB/9, for a league that plays at a level somewhere in the range of double-A this time of year.  Cruz has been working with an Astros minor league coach, Rick Aponte in the DWL.  Astros interim GM Dave Gottfried told Baseball America that Cruz has “a very good arm, an above-average arm, and the breaking ball has improved this winter with Rick working with him.”

Also, he doesn’t throw strikes.

Luis Rojas
In the triple-A Phase, the San Francisco Giants added Cruz Jr.: hard-throwing RHP Luis Rojas. Like Cruz, he throws hard, sitting in the 94-95 range regularly. Like Cruz, he has little idea where it’s going. Unlike Cruz, he will not be subject to any roster restrictions so the Giants can do whatever they’d like with him when it comes to assigning him to a team. The 22-year old Rojas ran a 4.87 ERA in 44.1 innings out of the Savannah bullpen in 2011 with 45 hits, 32 walks against 26 strikeouts. That’s 9.1 H/9, 6.5 BB/9 and just 5.3 K/9. He’s listed at 5’10″ and sports a nice looking boiler for a guy his age.

There were nights when Savannah Pitching Coach Glenn Abbott told me that Rojas looked so good he thought he could get out big league hitters with his stuff.  However, those nights were too infrequent.  More regularly, he struggled to locate his fastball.  Some outings he wouldn’t throw his breaking ball at all, while other times, he’d throw it, but just miss with it.

Hector Alvarez
Also in the triple-A phase, Toronto grabbed C Hector Alvarez from the Mets. Who? You might ask. Alvarez is a 20-year C who hit .229/.326/.289 in 27 games in the GCL in 2011.
I’m not sure why Alvarez was Rule 5 eligible. His statistical record picks up in 2008, but perhaps he signed a 2007 contract.