Multiple beat writers announced that the Mets will send LHP Robert Carson, RHP Josh Stinson, C Kai Gronauer and 2B Jordanny Valdespin to the Arizona Fall League this year.  That’s a pretty inexperienced group with very, very little success at AA.

- I touched on the 20-year old Carson (1-6, 8.74) earlier on Tuesday.  Sure, he’s been sitting in the low 90s and touching 94, but the 20-year old has been getting torched regularly in AA.

- The 22-year old Stinson was Binghamton’s best starter in the season’s first half and left AA with a 9-3 record and a 4.24 ERA and 68 strikeouts against 50 walks in 110.1 IP.
Pre-All Star Break: 3.31 ERA in 26 games and eight starts, Post ASB: 6.91.  I talked to a few scouts about him and the general consensus was at best, an “eh.”    He’s made a pair of starts for Buffalo and his last was brilliant: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K.

- The 23-year old Gronauer was a South Atlantic League All-Star in a first half in which he hit .267/.349/.361 before his promotion to St. Lucie where he’s hit .333/.386/.425 in 33 games.  The German native has collected 15 doubles and four home runs in 83 games.  He works counts well, 27 BB against 53 K between the two levels and was one of Savannah’s most disciplined hitters in the first half.  I know a few SAL managers who were very impressed by Gronauer and his ability to handle a pitching staff and manage a game defensively.  The AFL will be an interesting test.

- The Mets promoted the 22-year old Valdespin from St. Lucie where he was hitting .289/.323/.437 in 65 games to AA Binghamton, where’s he’s hitting .244/.253/.317 in 20 games.  He’s a terrific athlete blessed with speed and some strength, but he’s still pretty raw.  At AA, he’s fanned 15 times and walked just once.  He simply must learn some plate discipline if every going to be an asset at the MLB level.  He’s stole 16 bases this year, but been caught 12 times.  Maturity has been an issue in the past; he was suspended for repeated offenses last year in Savannah.

Instructional League
The News-Press in Fort Myers reported that the Mets will move their fall instructional program to City of Palms Park in Fort Myers Florida, where they will share the facility with the Boston Red Sox.   The Twins also train in Fort Myers and the Tampa Bay Rays are in nearby Port Charlotte, so there will be enough competition to keep everyone entertained on the west coast of Florida this winter.  A Mets person also told me that they are still thinking about sending some guys to the Dominican complex.

The good guys over at Project Prospect have put together their list of the top five prospects in the Arizona Fall League.  Their list:

1. Stephen Strasburg
2. Buster Posey
3. Dustin Akley
4. Yonder Alonso
5. Josh Bell

HM: Domonic Brown, Starlin Castro, Mike Leake, Jenrry Mejia, Thomas Neal and Jose Tabata

I think the top three on that list are pretty much unassailable.
However, I was very surprised by Alonso at #4.  The 22 year-old broke his hamate bone this year, limiting him to 84 games, over which time he hit just nine homers.  In 49 games he hit .303/.383/.497 in the FSL and then .295/.372/.457 in 29 games in the AA Southern League.  In 23 games in the AFL, Alonso hit a pedestrian .267/.353/.395 with two homers, three doubles and a triple.  While he didn’t show much power, he did draw 12 walks against 15 strikeouts.

Davis, meanwhile, split his year nearly evenly between the FSL and AA, smacking 20 homers on his way to a .298/.386/.524 year.  In the AFL, Davis hit .341/.394/.565 with four homers and seven doubles.

Davis is a better defender.  Alonso showed more patience in the AFL, but drew only slightly more walks in AA.  Davis hit 20 HR to Alonso’s 9 in the regular season.  Wrist injuries badly sap a hitter’s power even after he’s returned to the lineup, so Alonso’s power potential will become much clearer in the coming season.

To rank Alonso this much ahead of Davis requires some combination of the following:
1. a belief in that Alonso will hit for much more power than he did in 2009
2. a belief that Davis’ tendency towards striking out will drag his entire offensive game down at higher levels.

Let’s take a look how some of the more interesting prospects are fairing in winter ball:

Hitters
VWL

Josh Thole is still on a torrid pace. He leads the league in OBP, and is 2nd in BA, and 4th in OPS.

AFL

The AFL came to a close this week. Reese Havens ended his AFL on a torrid 7-game hitting streak, hitting .444 (12-27), with 3 doubles,1 triple, and 2 HR’s. Ike Davis ended his AFL in the top 20 in BA, SLG, and OPS.
DWL

Its good to finally see Fernando Martinez back on the field. Staying healthy is the next step for him.

Update:
Reese Havens goes 3-4 with an opposite field HR today. He lead off the 9th inning with a single, and eventually scored the game winning run. His season totals now stand at .368/.478/.658/1.136 in 38 AB’s.

Original post:

Reese Havens continues his hot hitting, falling a homerun short of the cycle Wednesday, leading Surprise to a 11-9 win over Peoria. Havens is currently riding a 6-game hitting streak, where he is hitting, .391 (9-23) with 2 doubles, a triple, and a homerun. He has raised his AFL totals to .324/.439/.559/.998.

Havens tells Robert Emrich, in a MLB.com report, that he has tried to stick to his routine and to continue to work.

As Toby reported, Havens is on the taxi squad, meaning he plays games only on Wed and Sat. Thats a tough thing to do, but Havens has seemed to get comfortable as the season moves along.

Also, in an ESPN.com chat, Baseball America’s Jim Callis took my question concerning Havens and Ike Davis.

Mike (MO):2011 Mets INF…..Wright, Reyes, Havens, Davis… Am i crazy or is that realistic?

Jim Callis(2:46 PM):Realistic.

Havens is known for his grittiness and hard work, but he also has the talent to back that up. That is a great foundation to build on. Staying healthy for a full season is the next obstacle for Havens to hurdle.

After a fully managerially focused morning, lets take a look at one of Tim Teufel’s likely charges with the 2010 Binghamton Mets, 23 year-old SS-2B Reese Havens.

Havens is in Arizona Fall League, but as a member of the taxi squad for the Surprise Rafters, is only eligible to play twice a week, on Wednesday and Saturday.  I saw him play one game and take a few BPs and two infields.  Havens admitted that the unusual playing schedule forced him to adjust, “That’s been a little different out here just trying to find a routine that works for me just playing two days a week,” he said before a Tuesday game.

As for the transition to second, Havens has played only a handful of games at the position, and unsurprisingly admitted that he’s still “getting used to it.  It’s just something you need to get a bunch of reps.   I’m just trying to get comfortable over there.”  He did not have to turn a double play at game speed in the game I saw him play, but pointed to the new angle to the second base bag as his biggest challenge at his new home, “Probably the biggest difference is the footwork around the bag.”

How about his range?  He was tested three times last Wednesday.  In the first inning, he stabbed a sharp liner down and to his right on a complete reaction play that would have been right at home at third base.  The subsequent batter, Jays 1B David Cooper bounced a ball up the middle.  Havens, after a few steps, dove, and was in a position to make the play, but the ball took a tricky hop,  kicking at the last second, bounding out of his glove into center field.  That was pretty much the only action for Havens until the ninth inning when Mesa SS Jose Iglesias bounced a ball up the middle past a diving Havens for the game winning single in the bottom of the ninth.  It would have taken extraordinary range for Havens to have made that play near the second-base bag.  So, I came away thinking that Havens will make an adequate second baseman.

It’s absolutely impossible for me to judge a player in such a limited viewing, but there were things to like, and things to give one pause.  In the prior category, Havens was patient and worked at bats.  Since a three-strikeout day in his first game, in which he said, he was, “late on everything,” he’s walked six times and fanned four in his subsequent seven games.  His leg kick is minimal.  His swing is short in back.  He drives very well off his front leg.  However, in the latter category, I didn’t see as much power as I was expecting, but I saw less of Havens than I wanted.  In the game I saw, he squared up one ball on a clean single into center.  In BP, he did not drive the ball with as much authority.   Perhaps he was trying to feel out his timing for one of his two starts in a week.  He has more than solid power numbers (19 2B and 14 HR) in 97 games in the Florida State League and he just his his first AFL HR Saturday in a game in which he also walked three times.

Havens also pointed out that he’s made a small mechanical tweak in his swing.  “I’m pretty much the same stance-wise, just moved my hands up a little bit.   My hands were down a little bit and I kinda had a tough time getting on that high fastball.  I’m a lefty, I like the ball down like most lefties do.  I moved my hands up, just to try to get in that comfort zone,” he explained.

The AFL numbers, in a tiny sample size, in an offensive environment, mean little for Havens.  However, the game film validates, to some degree, the power he showed in St. Lucie, and his approach was plenty patient.   Add a few more singles to his batting average in the FSL (where he struck out just 73 times against 55 walks in 97 games) and his .247/.361/.422 line would look a lot better.   I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Havens hitting .280/.380/.450 by July of next year for AA Binghamton.

Havens, who missed chunks of time in both 2008 and 2009 with injuries to his elbow, groin and hamstring, knows that to produce next year, he’ll need to be healthy.  Or as he put it, “the key to putting up numbers is staying in the lineup.”

Thursday, Jenrry Mejia earned his first win since June 1, back when he was with St. Lucie.  He was charged with five runs, four earned, in 3.2 innings, but two of those runs were bequeathed to RHP Josh Stinson, who was very hittable and allowed both to cross the plate.   At the request of Dan Warthen, Mejia used his two-seam fastball much more than in previous outings.

Mejia was pleased with his performance relative to his other AFL outings, “I pitched better today,” he said.  He explained that the difference was mechanical, “Before, I had no extension.  I wanted to throw hard.  Now I wanted to throw more strikes, I felt more comfortable today.”  Mejia threw strikes with 58% (33 of 57) of his pitches Thursday, approaching the MLB average of 61%.

His fastball which sat 93-95 mph is a real weapon.  He can cut it, or not.  His two-seamer had life at 92-93 mph as well.  However, he still struggles to throw strikes with his hard curveball (78-80 mph).  According to Brooks Baseball, he only found the zone on two of his six hooks Thursday.

The video below is classic Mejia, after falling behind, he throws two fastballs with filthy movement, misses with a curve, and then finishes off Lorenzo Cain with the heat.

The other thing Mejia did well Thursday was induce groundballs.  I’ve got some video of Mejia keeping SS Ruben Tejada busy. We’ll talk more about Mejia next week as well.

Finally, after the game I sat down with Mejia for almost 15 minutes.  We talked – in English and I was blown away.  He was comfortable expressing himself.  Last summer in Brooklyn, he needed pitching coach Hector Berrios to translate for him in interviews.  The progress Mejia has made with the language speaks to his drive and first-class intelligence.

Alongside top prospects Ike Davis, Jenrry Mejia and Ike Davis, the Mets also sent unheralded 21-year old RHP Josh Stinson to the Arizona Fall League.  After winning the 2006 Sterling Award for the Gulf Coast League, Stinson put up a pair of unremarkable seasons in ’07 and ’08 for Savannah.  However, moved to the bullpen fulltime in 2009, the sturdily built 6’4” Stinson flourished.

He was 2-2 in 42.1 IP with Savannah with 49 strikeouts against just ten walks with the Gnats, an impressive k/rate of 10.4 with a K/BB of 4.9.  In St. Lucie, he was 3-1 with six saves with a 1.98 ERA.  His strikeout rate declined slightly down to 8.7 k/9 while his walk rate jumped to 4.7 BB/9.

Stinson, credits former GCL Mets Pitching Coach Rob Ellis for teaching him a new trick, that made all the difference:

“Last year in Hawaii, Rob Ellis, me and him got together and worked on a slider.  I definitely think that’s one of the biggest things that helped me this year.  I’ve been able to have my curveball and my slider.  I felt like the slider was a better putaway pitch, because you’ve got the velocity and I throw a throw a two-seam and it looks the same except the other way.”

In truth, it was more a return to the offering for Stinson who had scrapped the slider after it failed to deliver results for him in 2007.

“I had a curve and slider in my first year in Savannah in ’07 as a starter, but my slider was more like a slurve and it was the same speed as my curveball so it was just different paths.  …. Towards the end of the year, I just stopped throwing it.  I was just fastball, sinker, curveball and change up.  To heck with this slurve.  But then last year, I was out in Hawaii and me and Rob were messing around one day, and I throwing in the outfield and was trying to throw the slider.  And he was like, “you’re doing it all wrong.  You’re doing it this way (demonstrates snapping the wrist, as though delivering a curveball) instead of just staying through it and changing your grip.  So he showed me the grip he used.  I started throwing it the second or third week out there, and really liked it.  … It’s just finger staying through the ball.  The way I used to do was to try to get on the side and it would sweep.  It’s sharper and it’s harder.  Now my slider’s like 83, 84.    … That was a big thing with Rob, ‘don’t baby it.  Throw it like your fastball with just a different finger pressure at the release.’”

Of course, Stinson also points to an increased familiarity with his role in 2009 for his solid season.

“It was kinda getting used to the bullpen.  Last year, I was back and forth, back and forth.  You don’t have to save it for five or six innings; you just go out there for one or two and blow all you got.  As a reliever… it’s a lot of adrenaline.  I enjoyed throwing more often.  As a starter, if you have a bad start, you gotta wait five days to get back out there, as a reliever, you might throw the next day.

Outside of baseball, Stinson gets his rush hunting.

“I hunt, when that deer walks out, it gets going a little bit, but you gotta control it because if it gets going too much, you won’t be able to see out of that scope.  You gotta control your breathing.  Your heart’s going to be going anyway.    I way I’ve always done it when I’ve shot is take a deep breath in, and then right as I’m about to shoot, I exhale so there’s no movement.  … and then boom.”

Stinson had trouble locating his fastball and offspeed offerings Monday in the desert.  As you can see in the video below, both the slider and the fastball at 91 mph have good movement, but so much that they were out of the zone.  If he’s ever going to be a major league reliever, his control simply has to improve.

It would not be at all surprising if the Mets had him break spring training with AA-Binghamton, where his ability to throw strikes will be tested by more advanced hitters.

Look for more video of Ike Davis, Reese Havens, Jenrry Mejia and Scott Moviel coming very soon.  -T