On Saturday, Mets prospects Jefry Marte and Juan Lagares each homered and drove in two runs to lead the Peoria Javelinas to a 8-7 victory over the Scottsdale Scorpions.  Marte’s homerun, his first of the AFL season, broke an eighth inning tie.

Peoria hitting coach, Alonzo Powell (a former big league outfielder) had some good things to say about Marte and Lagares: (via MLB.com)

Powell on Marte:

He’s a young kid with a lot of potential with pretty good strength and good bat speed.  He got a 1-0 fastball up in the zone and he put a good swing on it to left-center field.  I see a kid that has got really good bat speed and gap-to-gap power. He just needs to be more confident.

In 8 games for Peoria Marte is hitting .259/.364/.407, HR, 7 RBI, 4 BB, 6 K (27 AB).

Powell on Lagares:

Juan came through with two strikes.  He got a fastball up in the zone, too, and hit it into the bullpen. He is a five-tool type of player and he plays a real good center field. He has a lot of potential.  We make sure we try to get him in there on Wednesdays and Saturdays. He’s done a good job and he’s been working hard.

Powell is referring to Lagares being on the Peoria taxi squad, which allows him to play two games per week.

Lagares has made the most of his opportunity so far, hitting .389/.421/.778, 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB, 3K in 4 games (18 AB) for Peoria.  What I am most impressed with is the fact that Lagares has been playing center-field and hitting third in the lineup, comprised of higher end prospects.

I got a chance to watch Lagares play in Binghamton this season, and I was impressed with his ability.  Here is my scouting report on Lagares.

The AFL is a whole week old, so lets check in on the kids in the desert.

Pitchers
RHP Taylor Whitenton: 0.00 ERA, 2 G, 3.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K
LHP Robert Carson: 3.38 ERA, 3 G, 5.1 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
RHP Erik Turgeon: 4.50 ERA, 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
RHP Collin McHugh: 13.50 ERA, 4 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Notes
Whitenton fanned three without walking a batter in two innings last Saturday. He’s whiffed five of the 14 batters he’s faced. It’s just 3.1 innings, but it’s a promising start.
Carson by contrast has fanned just two of the 24 batters he’s seen. With his velocity, he should be missing more bats.

Batters
C Juan Centeno: 1-for-8, 1 BB, 0 K
OF Juan Lagares: 5-for-14 (.357/.400/.643), 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K.
3B Jefry Marte: 6-for-20 (.300/.400/.350), 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
2B Wilfredo Tovar: 3-for-18 (.167/.250/.222), 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K

Notes
Lagares has played two of his three games in centerfield, and one in right. Also, two extra-base hits and a walk in his first three games, is a nice start.
Marte’s three walks in six games is a nice sign as well.

Yesterday, Juan Lagares and Jefry Marte made their Arizona Fall League debuts.  RF Lagares just continued his strong work from the regular season, when he hit a combined .349/.383/.500 between advanced-A and AA, going 2-6 with  two strikeouts.

3B Marte (pictured) was 1-for-3 with two walks, and a strikeout.  Marte was significantly better in the first half of the 2011 season when he hit .283/.357/.402 than in the second when he slipped to .210/.263/.284.  It’s not all batting average: his first half isolated slugging percentage was .119 while it slipped to .074 in the second half.  Also, he walked at a 9.4% clip in the first half and 5.6% in the second half.  He had eight multi-walk games in 2011, but just one in the second half.  What happened?  Can he regain his first-half form in the AFL?

You know, the way he hit in the first half moves him closer to double-A readiness than I thought.

Salt River Rafters 12, @ Peoria Javelinas (Mets and others) 9
Hey, look a box score with Mets farm hands. It shouldn’t make me that excited, but it does.
Anyway, this one comes has pitch-fx with velocity readings for pitchers.

The pitch-fx star of the day was Robert Carson who sat 92-95 with his fastball and hit 96 once. He threw 63% of his pitches for strikes (22 of 34). The velocity readings on his change-up (82-86) and slider (81-91) seem a little inconsistent, so I wonder if 1. he really was that erratic, or 2. pitch-fx was misclassifying his pitches. Carson: 1.1, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Taylor Whitenton was 90-92 and touched 93 once. By my count, he threw eight change-ups in the 78-79 mph range. Of the eight, five were balls, two were strikes and one produced a single. He threw one pitch that pitch-fx calls a slider. Half of his 34 pitches were strikes. His line: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K.

Collin McHugh sat 89-91, touched 92, and showed five pitches: a curveball, a slider, a cutter and a change-up. His line: 2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 0 K. Of the five hits he allowed, two were on fastballs, two on change-ups and one on a curveball.

Erik Turgeon sat 89-91, touched 92 once ance gave up on a run on a hit.

Wilfredo Tovar played second and was 0-4.

The Arizona Fall League begins play today.  The AFL, which is usually a finishing school for top prospects, runs through the Thursday before Thanksgiving and usually tilts heavily towards the hitters.   This year, the Mets kids will play as Peoria Javelinas under Manager Pedro Lopez.  Lopez has risen a level a year from Brooklyn in 2009, to Savannah in 2010 and then St. Lucie in 2011.

The Mets in the AFL:

LHP Robert Carson
RHP Collin McHugh
RHP Taylor Whitenton
RHP Erik Turgeon
C Juan Centeno
2B Wilfredo Tovar
3B Jefry Marte
OF Juan Lagares
I covered the initial assignments in two parts here in August, discussing McHugh and Lagares here and Carson, Whitenton, Marte and Centeno here.

The news today is the substitutions. SS/2B Wilfredo Tovar has taken the spot that was originally supposed to belong to Reese Havens. Adam Rubin reports that Havens, who lost 20 pounds during the 2011 season, and dealt with a back problem after off-season surgery to shave down his rib, will use the time to bulk back up and take care of his back. That’s fine, as long as he’s healthy for Opening Day 2012 in either AA or AAA a few weeks in the Fall League aren’t a big deal.

Tovar is a brilliant defender whose value is maximized at shortstop. The little guy, who turned 20 in August, hit .251/.318/.318 in Savannah in 2011, but was better in the second half when he became more disciplined at the plate as part of a .265/.346/.341 line in 66 games. Something else to like in the second half: 28 walks against 25 strikeouts. For the year, he was the third-toughest player in the SAL to strikeout (10.43 TPA/SO). Slick defense, contact and some on-base skills are a nice skillset for a middle infield prospect, just ask Ruben Tejada. Tovar, who’s listed at 5’10″, 160 has even less pop than Tejada, but that’s not what his game is all about.

Also, Turgeon replaced RHP Brandon Moore in the Javelinas’ bullpen. Moore is ineligible to play in the AFL after earning a 50-game suspension, which by definition is his second, for a “drug of abuse.”

The Arizona Fall League finished up its season over the weekend so it’s time to examine what happened out in the desert for Mets farmhands.

Keep the League environment in mind. This is an offensive friendly league where the ball carries well, and the infields are hard and fast.  The AFL hit .283/.357/.431 and scored 12 runs per game in 2010.  By contrast, the National League hit .255/.324/.399 and scored 4.3 runs per game.  The AFL had a .330 BABIP, the NL .299.
The level of play in the AFL is inconsistent: there are guys who will play in the big leagues, and be impact players in short order, and there are guys who will be below average players in AA.

I’ll get to the pitchers later today.

The Hitters
Kai Gronauer
6’1″ 205 – C – 11/28/86
The question: How would the German born catcher, who turns 24 in a month, respond to his first taste of advanced pitching after a 2010 season in which he split between the two a-ball levels with a .291/.359/.379 line?  Light on power, but long on approach, could he hang against more age-appropriate competition?
Verdict: Incomplete.
Gronauer hit .222/.286/.333 with three doubles, four walks, and five strikouts over  45 AB in 13 games over two months.  So that’s about a week and a half’s worth of playing time in a full-time role.  If you’re looking for positives, note that he controlled the strike zone well.  Also, his BABIP of .250 was fluky low after BABIPs of .383 in advanced-A St. Lucie and .299 in A Savannah.
Next Step: Barring a Spring Training surprise, Gronauer should break camp as AA – Binghamton’s everyday catcher.

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Kirk Nieuwenhuis
6’3″, 210 lbs – OF – 8/7/87
The question: After failing to land a job in a Caribbean League, how would he follow up a strong season at AA, and a weak final month at AAA?  With a big fall, could he put himself in the organization’s big league plans for 2011?
The Verdict: Mildly disappointing. Nieuwenhuis continued to strike out at a high rate (24%), but the power disappeared.  This wasn’t a BABIP problem: his .344 was slightly higher than the AFL average, and higher than at any other stop in his last two years.  However, playing the best hitting environment of his career, his extra-base hit percentage dropped to its lowest rate of any of his stops in the last two years. Yeah, it’s only 90 at-bats, and yes, it’s only 90 at-bats. Still, fans hoping for Nieuwenhuis to play a big role early in 2011, need to temper their enthusiasm.
Next Step: Back to AAA to begin 2011.

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Josh Satin
6’2″, 200 lbs – 2B – 12/23/84
The question: Can he keep hitting?
The verdict: Affirmative, but nearly irrelevant.  He had 41 AB in the AFL – that’s worth a shade over a week in a season.  That just doesn’t mean much at all.  There’s a pattern here though.  Look at the final columns on this table.  His superficially impressive batting lines have been bolstered by unsustainable BABIPs and strong walk rates.  The walk rates I believe.  The BABIP will come back down.  Note also, that he’s been striking out in over 20% of his plate appearances, and almost 30% of the time in the AFL.
Next step: AAA utility man at age 26 in 2011.

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Jordany Valdespin
6’0″, 174 lbs – 2B – 12/23/87
The question: Will Valdespin ever learn to draw a walk, get on base and be a top of the order threat?
The Verdict: Tentative yes. His walk rate of 5% was better than at either advanced-A or double-AA in 2010.  He still has room to improve in the area.  And yes, it was only 76 AB.  Again, as with Satin above, even in a league with a high BABIP, Valdespin’s was elevated above any sustainable level.  No, he’s never going to run a BABIP of .413 over a full season ever again.  His AFL season ended with a forearm strain.  The Mets added him to the 40-man roster so, he’s definitely on the organizational radar moving forward and could make his Major League debut as soon as the end of 2011.
Next Step: AA 2B.  Assuming Reese Havens and Jordany Valdespin are both healthy coming out of Spring Training in 2011, and that’s a dangerous assumption given Havens’ track record, the Mets will have a very interesting decision to make.

Satin Graduates
Josh Satin had graduated from the Arizona Fall League’s Taxi Squad to the varsity.  Taxi squad players are only allowed to play on Wednesdays and Saturdays.  However, Jordanny Valdespin strained his forearm, so the Mesa Solar Sox needed a second baseman.  In nine games, Satin is hitting a robust .438/.526/.594 with two doubles, a home run, five walks and 12 strikeouts in 32 AB.  How unsustainable is that line? He’s running a .684 BABIP.  Satin, who will be 26 two days before Christmas, hit .308/.395/.472 and looks destined for a 2B/utility role at AAA in 2011.

STS on Armando Rodriguez
Mike Newman of Scouting the Sally.com writes up a scouting report on RHP Armando Rodriguez. Mike is not a fan, concluding:

“I just don’t know how I can possibly project 90-92 MPH with fringe breaking stuff as a future big leaguer.  In trying to run the big league scenarios for a pitcher with his arsenal through my head, I just don’t see where he fits into a major league pitching staff.