Baseball America’s Matt Eddy is chatting about the magazine’s Top 10 Mets prospects today at 1:30.  Also, the magazine released their online version of the scouting reports for the players in the Top 10.

Baseball America has their list of Top 10 Mets Prospects out, but it won’t go online for a few more days.

The list is:

1. Zack Wheeler, rhp
2. Matt Harvey, rhp
3. Brandon Nimmo, of
4. Jeurys Familia, rhp
5. Cesar Puello, of
6. Jenrry Mejia, rhp
7. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, of
8. Michael Fulmer, rhp
9. Reese Havens, 2b
10. Wilmer Flores, ss

It seems like a really bad piece of business for Baseball America to scoop their own website with the print edition, so blogs like this one and this one get it online first, but what do I know?

Baseball America named Jeurys Familia as the #13 prospect in the Eastern League for 2011.

John Manuel explained the ranking:

Familia toned down his delivery from his phrenetic motion he showed prior to 2011, and that allowed him to throw more quality strikes with one of the EL’s most explosive fastballs. His loose, whippy arm helps him sit at 92-96 mph with hard life down in the zone.

His curveball has improved, and while it has slurvy shape, it has late break at times and gives him another swing-and-miss pitch. His changeup is too firm but is a decent third pitch that plays up thanks to his premium fastball. His youth and inexperience show up most with his erratic defense and difficulties holding runners.

 

In his chat, he also explained why Matt Harvey did not make the Eastern League Top 20:

Harvey did pitch enough to qualify, and he’s in that 21-25 group. The guys I talked to who saw him in the EL thought his stuff was inconsistent and his inexperience showed a bit in terms of setting up hitters and pitch sequence, but he didn’t miss by much. On a top 100, I’d imagine he’d go ahead of Kyle McPherson, for example. In McPherson’s favor, he has a better changeup and actually threw a bit harder than Harvey, but he’s also older. McPherson was better in the league, that swayed me to give him the 20th spot. People in the league definitely liked Familia better because of his loose arm and better fastball. But Harvey’s upside remains very high.

Kyle McPherson, a Pirates’ RHP was the #20 prospect in the League.  I’m confused again about what these League rankings mean if Harvey would outrank McPherson on a Top 100, but not in the Eastern League rankings.  The League rankings mix overall prospect status with performance in the league in a way that seems to be applied differently by different writers.

Baseball America released their Florida State League Top 20 Prospects on Monday, and Matt Harvey landed at #2 and Wilmer Flores at #20 as selected by Jim Shonerd.

Shonerd quotes a scout on Harvey:

“Physical. Held his velocity. All the stuff was projectable, too.”

and then runs through his arsenal:

Harvey has some deception in his delivery and generates good downhill angle on his fastball, which sits at 91-94 mph and reaches as high as 98. The heater also shows sinking action down in the zone and he can command it to both sides of the plate. He features a pair of power breaking balls in a 12-to-6 curveball and a slider that touches 87 mph, though the latter’s bite can get inconsistent.

Harvey’s changeup is the least effective of his offerings, though it does feature some fading action.

Shonerd on Flores:

“…his hitting skills still impressed league observers. He has an advanced feel for hitting for his age, making consistent contact, using the whole field and improving his pitch recognition as the season went on. As he fills out and gets stronger, he could become a 20-homer threat.
…
Flores’ bat will have to carry him because his speed and athleticism are below-average and not conducive to playing shortstop at higher levels. He throws well enough to play third base, but some scouts think he lacks infield actions and eventually will have to move to an outfield corner or first base.

I have Cesar Puello ahead of Wilmer Flores, and it’s not surprising that Shonerd answered a question in his chat about Puello, who apparently was close to the top 21.

Ben (Leland Grove): How did scouts evaluate Cesar Puello's season overall?
Jim Shonerd: Puello would’ve been in the 21-23 range. He definitely has tools, but he still struggles to recognize breaking pitches and the Mets have been trying to take away a hook in his swing. He hit some monster HRs and showed he has the speed for center field at least for now. He started the year in right and moved to center after Matt den Dekker was promoted, and he has the arm to fit in right if that’s where he needs to be.

These League rankings are funny business with their playing time minimums.  For example, a guy who like Jeurys Familia, who just blows through the FSL, won’t pitch enough innings at the level to qualify for the list.  Also, I think that the League rankings are supposed to factor in the players’ performance at other levels so really these are the lists of the best overall prospects in the FSL who meet BA’s playing time requirement.

One other funny note from the chat: Shonerd, while knocking Darin Gorski, dishes out significant praise.

Frank (Chicago): Is Darin Gorski someone to keep an eye on? Is he someone who is considered to be not as good as his numbers?
Jim Shonerd: St. Lucie lefty Darin Gorski was the FSL’s pitcher of the year and its ERA leader, but yeah, his prospect status doesn’t match up with his 11-3, 2.08 mark. He pitches at 90-91 mph with his fastball and throws strikes, but his breaking ball will limit him.

Gorski was not 90-91 in 2010, but sat mostly 87-88, touching 90. Also, 90-91 is more than enough for a lefty.  Incidentally, the FSL top 20 list has but one LHP, Detroit’s Drew Smylym who, according to Shonerd “tops out at 92 mph but he mostly pitches at 87-89 with some slight tailing action.”

So I missed that BA released their New-York Penn League Top 20 Prospects Rankings last Sunday.  Seriously?  Sunday.  Anyway, Danny Muno, coming off a .355/.466/.514 season with 23 doubles, 43 walks and 39 strikeouts slotted in at #18.

Aaron Fitt wrote in part:

“He has some of the best knowledge of the strike zone I’ve ever seen from a young kid,” Brooklyn manager Rich Donnelly said. “His bat is going to play and his OBP is ridiculous. He’s been a winner his whole life. He’s a tough kid and I just like him.”

Muno lacks the range to be an everyday shortstop in the big leagues, but he has good infield actions and instincts to go along with a solid arm. He has a chance to be a regular at second base or a versatile utilityman who can fill in all over the infield. He has slightly above-average speed and good baserunning instincts.

In his chat, Fitt also praised Cory Mazzoni:

“While we’re talking Mets, Cory Mazzoni also was very impressive in his brief NY-P stint (he also did not qualify for this list). He was 93-96 with a plus slider. Exciting arm.”

My understanding was that by the end of the year in St. Lucie, he mostly working in the 92-93 range with a little 94.  Still perhaps he was throwing harder earlier in Brooklyn, or can dial it up for short relief appearances (he was limited to one-inning outings with the Cyclones).  Either way, Fitt’s right, very interesting arm.

No Gnats made the SAL Top 20 Prospects.

Baseball America is into their league-by-league top 20 lists and has named Mets RHP Rafael Montero the #20 prospect in the GCL.

Ben Badler wrote this about Montero:

Montero’s best pitch is his fastball, which sits at 90-93 mph and touches 95 with late hop, making it tough for hitters to pick up. His fastball plays up because his command of the pitch was so advanced for Rookie ball. He’ll need to improve his secondary pitches, a fringy changeup and a below-average breaking ball, though he throws them both for strikes.

Montero’s interesting in that he signed late by international standards – he’ll be 21 in October – but he blew through four levels in the system this year.

Basic

Advanced

Given that he threw 71 innings total in 2011, a full season in the rotation in Savannah would give him ~120, and a 50 inning bump.  That’s a little high.  Even so, at 21, he’d be the right age for the SAL.

Writing at Baseball America, Steve Popper names Jordany Valdespin the Mets’ “Best Player,” Matt Harvey as the team’s “Best Pitcher,” and Matt den Dekker as one to “Keep An Eye On.”

The mildly funny part? Valdespin was not honored by the Mets as part of the team’s Sterling Awards.  Here’s Mets Director of Minor League Operations Adam Wogan on Valdespin:

“He’s athletic enough to play shortstop.  He’s working on becoming more consistent there and in all phases of the game. He also showed that the hand-eye coordination and bat speed are translating into performance.”

Rob Steingall at SNY’s Why Guys got all excited about den Dekker.  It’s nice to get excited about den Dekker, but before pencilling him right into your Mets centerfield fantasies, realize that he hit .235/.312/.426 for AA-Binghamton with 91 strikeouts in 72 games, fanning in 29% of his AA plate appearances in the season in which he turned 24.  So, whether or not you think the Mets should tender an offer to Angel Pagan for 2012, Matt den Dekker has almost nothing to do with the decision.