Baseball America has their mid-season Report Card up written by Steve Popper.

He names SS Wilmer Flores as the system’s best player.  No surprise there.  Popper quotes Adam Wogan on Flores:

“Carlos Beltran played with him for St. Lucie during his rehab and he raved about his maturity as a hitter. He has the ability to put the barrel on the ball, and he’s done it with increased power. He’s got a great idea of the strike zone. He doesn’t chase pitches. He doesn’t swing and miss, but he hits it hard.”

Also, regarding Flores, Popper writes:

“Some observers even wondered if his struggles might have been due to boredom with the level.”

I on July 1 I wrote:

“This is also the same hitter who hit .175./.254/.246 in his final 126 AB in Savannah.  ….. Did the league figure him out?  Did he get tired?  Did his fatigue affect his mechanics?  Did he get bored?”

My comment was born out of conversation with watching Wilmer day in and day out, talking to him, with other professional scouts and talent evaluators who observed his body language.

Nice attribution.  Thanks, bud.

–Obviously, I cite Baseball America’s work around here all the time.  But when I do, I link to it and cite it.  Popper and BA did not.

Popper’s Biggest Leap Forward is 22-year old Josh Stinson.  Blah.  I wrote quickly about Stinson this morning.
There are only numbers you need to know: 81.2 IP, 31 BB, 53 K – 3.41 BB/9, 5.84 K/9, 1.7 K/BB.

There are disturbingly few candidates for the Great Leap Forward, but given that Lucas Duda’s hot streak probably came after BA went to press, Stinson’s CF, Kirk Nieuwenhuis or 3B, Eric Campbell, even injured, would have been a better picks.

The Biggest Disappointment, Brad Holt, was an easy call.

Wilmer Flores has made the weekly Baseball America, Prospect Hot Sheet, coming in at #2 overall behind super prospect Stephen Strasburg.  Why was Flores selected: .500/.583/.818 (11-for-22), 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 2-for-2 SB.  Here is some of the BA excerpt on Flores:

Yet he’s still just 18, still in the lowest level of full-season ball and still likely three-plus years from being able to make an impact at the major league level, so it’s important to be patient. But you can certainly be excited, since Flores looks like a prodigious hitting machine, and even the power is starting to come around with five home runs on the year. He’s still learning to work himself into good hitter’s counts (he has 10 walks, but three were intentional), but he’s such a talented hitter that it’s not an issue right now. Flores also made two throwing errors and a fielding error this week to bring his error total to eight, but nobody thinks he’s a future shortstop anyway; it’s the bat that makes him special.

Yesterday, Baseball America ran a series of prospect chats. Mets prospect, Ike Davis, was one of the invited players to chat with fans. Here are some of the more intriguing questions:

Josh (New Jersey): What are the pressures of playing in a big media market like New York?

Ike Davis: I’m looking forward to play in NY. The only way to play baseball is to have pressure on yourself and to expect to win everyday.

Zach (Wilton, CT): What are you trying to improve the most about your game heading into this year? Strikeouts, Hitting Lefties?

Ike Davis: I would say that hitting against lefties is what I am working most on.

mike (nyc): who would you say is the most talented player you have played with down in the minors?

Ike Davis: There are a lot of guys down here that are really talented but Jenry Mejia is probably the best player.

Let’s start by saying Ike Davis is the best 1st base prospect the Mets have had since ???? (insert any random name) Him getting invited to spring training is cool, but people who think he has a legit chance of making the team out of spring training need to tone down the excitement. Let the kid taste AAA pitching for at least a half of season, then we can reassess his status. Remember a couple of years ago, Mike Jacobs was anointed the Mets 1st baseman of the future. This year he couldn’t get a guaranteed ML deal. While I believe Davis will eventually be in Queens for a long time, maybe as soon as this year, let’s give him some time. Quoting Davis, “I would say that hitting against lefties is what I am working most on.” To read the rest of Davis’ chat click here

Baseball America recently handed out Draft Report Card grades for all MLB teams from 2005-2008. According to BA’s Jim Callis, the grades are solely on the quality of the draftees signed, and not on the number of picks added/lost through free-agent compensation, the amount of money spent, whom the players may have been traded for or unsigned players who became prominent.
The grading scale is:
A=4
B=3
C=2
D=1
F=0
+=.5

Here are the NL East grades:

The only thing I can think of for Mets fans is EPIC FAIL… The Mets ranked 25th out of 30 overall and 14th out of 16 in the NL. The issue of not drafting overslot has contributed to this poor showing, but this is a direct reflection on the scouting and player development departments. Have the Mets had good prospects, yes. Have the Mets developed some lower profile prospects, yes. So it is not a total disaster.

The fact that we are last in the NL East in this particular area, is telling to the state of the farm system and the state of the current Mets 40-man roster. Only Jose Reyes, David Wright, Jon Niese, Daniel Murphy, Mike Pelfrey, Bobby Parnell, Josh Thole, Eddie Kunz, Tobi Stoner, Shawn Bowman, Fernando Martinez, and Nick Evans have been either drafted or signed originally by the Mets organization (Angel Pagan was drafted by the Mets, but was then sold to the Cubs in 2006 where he later was called up). That is 12 out of 40 (30%), of which only Reyes, Wright, Murphy, Pelfrey, and Parnell have been major contributors. That would be 5 out of 40 (12.5%). This is a major reason for the annual need to sign high profile free agents, the lack of developing ML caliber players within the farm system. With that being said, I believe the current state of the farm is not as bad as it may seem. With Mejia, Martinez, Davis, Holt, Flores, Thole, Niese, Havens, and others, the farm is progressing, albeit slowly, but progressing nonetheless.

Baseball America is taking a look back at the NL Top 10s for the decade. They have ranked each teams top 10 prospects from the Top 10s of the last decade, as well as the best and worst draft pick of the decade. There is also a yearly organization chart, that shows BA’s annual minor league talent rankings. The players ranked are only those currently in MLB, so no current minor leaguers. They group the teams by division, so here are the NL East teams.

The best draft pick was David Wright 2002 supplemental 1st round.
the worst draft pick was Phillip Humber 2004 1st round.

The Mets Top 10 Prospects (peak rank in parenthesis):

1. David Wright (2)
2. Jose Reyes (1)
3. Scott Kazmir (1)
4. Aaron Heilman (1)
5. Brian Bannister (9)
6. Mike Pelfrey (1)
7. Mike Jacobs (4)
8. Kaz Matsui (1)
9. Matt Lindstrom (10)
10. Carlos Gomez (3)

Yearly BA minor league talent rankings:

2000- 22nd
2001- 20th
2002- 27th
2003- 13th
2004- 10th
2005- 19th
2006- 28th
2007- 13th
2008- 28th
2009- 17th

To think that Heilman and Matsui were #1 prospects in this organization is painful. I am surprised not to see Lastings Milledge in the list. Some of these players were traded for studs (Jacobs and Gomez), but the rest of them (Kazmir, Heilman, Bannister, Matsui, and Lindstrom) were traded for duds. So far only Wright, Reyes, and Kazmir have been all stars. The others have all been average major-leaguers. Compared to the other NL East teams, the Mets list is more impressive than only the Nationals. With the information given, during this past decade, the Braves, Marlins, and Phillies are well ahead of the Mets in their scouting and player development departments.

Baseball America has picked the best NL prospects, by position, that did not make their respective team’s Top 10 list. Kirk Nieuwenhuis makes the team as the left-fielder. This is the 7th annual edition of the NL all-non Top 10 team. For what its worth, last year Ike Davis made this same list. What a difference a year makes..

To read the entire list click here.

Here is the excerpt on Nieuwenhuis, written by BA’s Jim Callis:

Kirk Nieuwenhuis, lf, Mets: The first NAIA player selected in the 2008 draft (third round), Nieuwenhuis led the high Class A Florida State League in extra-base hits (56) and slugging (.467) in his first full pro season. There’s some question as to whether he can make consistent contact against better pitching, but he improved his pitch recognition and discipline over the course of 2009. A potential 20-20 player, he can play either outfield corner and fill in in center.

After an outstanding first full pro season, its good to see Nieuwenhuis get some recognition. His second half surge propelled him to a AA call-up, and legitimate prospect status. He has tools: speed, power, and a plus defender. He has to work on cutting down his strikeouts, but with his new approach, detailed here by Toby Hyde, Nieuwenhuis made significant improvements in the 2nd half of the season. A kid from a small school with a lot of upside is a great story. Not only does he have the talent, he is known a hard worker. Nieuwenhuis should start 2010 in AA Binghamton.

Baseball America has posted its AFL Top 10 prospect list. The Mets are the only team with 2 players on the list.

1. Stephen Strasburg – RHP – Nationals
2. Buster Posey- C -  Giants
3. Dominic Brown – RF -  Phillies
4. Dustin Ackley – OF – Mariners
5. Josh Bell – 3B -Orioles
6. Jenrry Mejia – RHP – Mets
7. Freddie Freeman – 1B – Braves
8. Yonder Alonso – 1B – Reds
9. Starlin Castro – SS – Cubs
10. Ike Davis – 1B – Mets

TH: The Braves would have had two players in the Top 10, except Jason Heyward did not accumulate enough at-bats to join Freddie Freeman on the list.

Here are excerpts from the reports on Mejia and Davis, written by BA’s Ben Badler:

Jenrry Mejia, rhp, Mets

The results weren’t pretty….But Mejia showed one of the league’s strongest arms with a 90-96 mph fastball that touched 98. His fastball at times has excellent cutting life, and at other times he’ll put sink on it to generate an abundance of ground balls.

TH: In certain starts Mejia emphasized the two-seam fastball relative to the four-seamer to produce groundballs.

Mejia still needs to bring his secondary pitches up to par, but each one flashes potential. His most advanced offspeed pitch is his changeup, which he throws with good arm speed and has good depth at times. His curveball comes and goes, though it flashes quick break at 78-82 mph.

TH: Yup, the secondary stuff needs work.  Experience and repetitions keys.  The fastball is special, as is the groundball rate, which according to firstinning.com and @adamwfoster was 60% in the AFL.  Video of Mejia getting batters to ground out, is below, with Ruben Tejada playing shortstop behind him.

Ike Davis, 1b, Mets

… the 2008 first-round pick still draws mixed reviews. Davis has the raw power to hit 25-30 home runs annually, though he has a somewhat unorthodox swing, starting his stance with a high hand setup then dropping his hands before he hits. He crushes righthanded pitching but still needs to show he can hit enough against lefties. Davis has below-average speed, but he moves well around first base and has a strong arm.

Davis out hit both Alonso and Freeman, who are ranked ahead of him during the regular season as well as in the AFL. You probably would get those three grouped together in most lists. Seems to me that most scouts are not as sold on Davis as they are on the other two. To quote Toby, who wrote about Alonso vs. Davis recently:

To rank Alonso this much ahead of Davis requires some combination of the following:
1. a belief in that Alonso will hit for much more power than he did in 2009
2. a belief that Davis’ tendency towards striking out will drag his entire offensive game down at higher levels.

I think that scouts are not entirely sold on Davis, due to his unusual loading of his hands.. His hands start in a normal behind the ear position, but when loading his hands to his hitting position, he drops them considerably. This will be a problem with high fastballs, but if he continues to square ball up and lay off the high fastball, there should be no concern with his mechanics. With another solid season, Davis could be in Citifield come Sept-2010.

TH: Freeman’s two years younger than Davis.

Video showing Davis’ hand path is below.  There are freeze frames to illustrate Davis’ hand path.