Baseball America now has the results of their annual Best Tools Survey online.

In A-ball, BA named Matt Harvey as the Florida State League’s “Best Pitching Prospect.  Darin Gorski picked up some love as having the FSL’s “Best Changeup.”  Matt den Dekker was named the League’s “Best Defensive Outfielder.”

Gnats players were shut out in the South Atlantic League, but manager Ryan Ellis was named the League’s “Best Manager Prospect.”

The Mets came up empty in AAA too, but Ezequiel Carrera, who was part of the JJ Putz trade, was named the “Best Baserunner” and “Best Defensive Outfielder.”

Over at Baseball America, in his latest “Ask BA,” Jim Callis re-ranks his Mets Top 10.

Here’s Callis’ latest:

Assuming Nimmo signs as expected, I’d predict that the Mets would rank in the 11-15 range when we unveil our farm system rankings in the 2012 Prospect Handbook.

1. Zack Wheeler, rhp
Not an easy call, but I’m taking Wheeler over Harvey because he has a higher ceiling.
2. Matt Harvey, rhp
Tore up high Class A, has struggled in Double-A during his first pro season.
3. Brandon Nimmo, of
Highest pick ever from Wyoming (No. 13) was one of draft’s best athletes.
4. Jeurys Familia, rhp
Still throwing in mid-90s, has improved command after rough 2010 season.
5. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, of
Not fair to call him an overachiever when he keeps producing everywhere he goes.
6. Jennry Mejia, rhp
System’s No. 1 prospect entering 2011 had Tommy John surgery in May.
7. Cesar Puello, of
Having inconsistent year in high Class A, but still has five-tool potential.
8. Michael Fulmer, rhp
Fastball jumped to mid-90s, slider to mid-80s during high school senior year.
9. Jordany Valdespin, ss/2b
Enjoying breakout year with bat in Double-A, needs more defensive consistency.
10. Wilmer Flores, ss
Left field is best-case defensive scenario, and scouts are losing enthusiasm for his bat.

I wrote last week that I still have Harvey over Wheeler.  I’m not sure Wheeler’s ceiling is that much higher and Harvey has conquered advanced-A.  Wheeler has not.  Otherwise, it all seems like really reasonable stuff to me from Callis, who apparently likes Michael Fulmer a lot, which is nice.

Ok, gang, have at it.

Reaction from the baseball prospect experts regarding the Mets acquisition of Zack Wheeler has been uniformly positive.

ESPN.com’s Keith Law:

In acquiring pitching prospect Zack Wheeler from the San Francisco Giants for Carlos Beltran, theNew York Mets made out like bandits. …

Wheeler, who ranked No. 31 on my most recent prospect rankings, is an elite pitching prospect with a high ceiling. The right-hander will most likely be a solid No. 2 starter, but there is some chance he will be better than that because of the big fastball. He’ll touch 97 mph and sits 91-94 or better with an above-average curveball that has shown it can miss bats. He has a fringy changeup that’s a little too firm, and left-handed hitters are not impressed yet, as they’ve hit .292/.404/.487 against him this year. The fastball-breaking ball combo is top-notch, but between the changeup and a few other issues, Wheeler is high-risk as well as high-reward. His control is below average, with three starts this year in which he walked five or more batters, and he’ll have to show durability to match his frame, as he’s retired more than 18 batters just twice this year. You have to add an arm like that to your system any time you get the opportunity, but even as a fan of Wheeler’s I admit he’s no sure thing.

Baseball Prospectus

To their credit, the Mets had no designs on saving money by dealing Beltran, nor seemingly in acquiring depth. Rather, from the outside, their decision-making process revolved around finding the single best prospect that could, leading to the rare one-for-one deal, as Beltran is bound for the Bay Area in return for 2009 first-round pick Zack Wheeler. It’s easy to find dings in Wheeler, who has a 3.99 ERA in 16 starts for High-A San Jose, especially in his command and control and an arm slot that makes him susceptible to lefties, but he also has mid-90s heat, a sharp breaking ball, and one of those bodies that just looks like an All-Star starter. He has a front-of-the-rotation ceiling but hardly a good chance of reaching it, yet any pitcher with a non-zero chance of getting to that level is the kind of pitching prospect that everyone looks for—be it in trades, the draft, or through the international market.

…

There is such a thing as a pitching prospect, his name is Zack Wheeler, and while chances are good he’ll be a big leaguer, chances are poor that he’ll turn into a star. Nonetheless, he’s exactly what the Mets needed.

Baseball America

The sixth overall pick in 2009, Wheeler logged just 59 innings last season as he dealt with a cracked fingernail on his pitching hand—though he used the down time to iron out his pitching mechanics. A full recovery is evident in Wheeler’s performance this season. He ranks among the California League leaders in strikeout rate (10.0 per nine innings, fifth) and opponent average (.224, fourth). But while he’s given up just seven homers in 16 starts, he’s been too liberal with walks, handing out 4.8 per nine innings. Wheeler sits in the low- to mid-90s and can dial his plus fastball up to 96 mph with a quick, easy arm action. His curveball doesn’t always feature power or shape at this stage, and his changeup sometimes lacks finish, but he’s flashed plus with both pitches at various points. If Wheeler sharpens at least one of them to above-average status, he’s got front-of-the-rotation potential.

Today, Baseball America revealed its Mid-season Top 50 prospect list. Matt Harvey cracked the list at #30.

Considering that Harvey was not even ranked in BA’s 2011 Top 100 list in February, this is a huge leap for him.

So far this season, Harvey is 8-4 with a 3.35 ERA between High-A St. Lucie and AA-Binghamton. In 88 2/3 innings of work, Harvey has given up 87 hits while walking 28 and striking out 106.

Jenrry Mejia (#44), Wilmer Flores (#59), and Cesar Puello (#77) failed to make the list after being ranked in BA’s pre-season Top 100 list.

Last week, Baseball America ranked Jordany Valdespin at #7 on their weekly Hot Sheet and wrote:

Scouts never questioned Valdespin’s raw tools, but they cautioned that the young middle infielder’s game required a lot of refinement. Playing shortstop every day at Double-A may have afforded Valdespin that extra incentive he needed to mature. He’s swiped 16 bases in 19 tries on the year, and in June he’s turned on the power (five homers, .733 slugging) and tuned down the strikeouts (11 percent of at-bats). His performance may prove to be a statistical blip, but the Mets have to be happy with what they’ve seen lately.

It’s 100% true that two and a half hot weeks may be a blip.  Or they may not be.

On the other hand, I just don’t buy that playing short stop gave Valdespin the “incentive” to mature.  The incentive to be a better hitter would be in place whether he was playing second, short or catcher.  Minor league ballplayers always have an incentive to improve.  They’re getting lousy paychecks in small towns.  You don’t think they see the big leagues in the distance?   If we’re talking about a major offensive improvement with Valdespin, and a surprising power surge, we should be talking about hitting mechanics and an improved approach.

“Needed a lot of refinement,” is a gentle turn of phrase that’s vague here and borders on code.  It could be a catch-all for his both his on-field and off-field behavior.  1. On the field, it’s fair.  In the past, Valdespin was fairly undisciplined at the plate, expanding his zone regularly.  I saw him carelessly muff plays in the field.  2. Off the field, it’s fair too.   Remember, the Mets basically suspended him for the better part of June and July in 2009.  Was BA describing both sets of issues in five words or less?  If so, well played, although few might interpret that phrase as carefully or fully as I have here.

A scout described Valdespin’s game to me recently as “flashy.”  His 15 errors in 55 games are significant and point to the scout’s complaint, that he does not make all of the routine plays.  He needed in Baseball America’s word to be more “refined.”  Is he there yet?  His error totals and his walk rate say no, but it’s a process, and he’s clearly well along in that process.

At Baseball America, Matt Eddy talks to new Mets Minor League Pitching Coordinator Rick Tomlin to put together an interesting piece on the Mets new pitching philosophy and the hard-throwing prospects in the AA rotation, Jeurys Familia, Brad Holt and Robert Carson.

Tomlin summarizes the new pitching philosophy as emphasizing:
1. Fastball command
2. Remove Clutter from pitcher’s minds
3. Eliminate vagueness.  Communicate better.  As teachers have an answer for “why?”

For Familia, it’s about Mechanics
The organization made two changes to his delivery, 1. encouraging him to be more athletic and less mechanical, and 2. more upright, rather than crouched.

Tomlin:

“We wanted him to have the ability to use his athleticism, to be natural and not be so inhibited…The biggest thing we did was we stood him up tall. He’s a big, strong, tall guy (listed at 6-foot-3, 185 pounds), but last year he had a bit of a crouch in his delivery. He was bent over, so we concentrated on getting his arm on a better path. He really bought into what we were trying to do…Before, Familia would crouch over a bit and the path of his arm would get wide and swing away from his body. Now he’s standing taller and he’s got his arm on a better plane.”

One specific improvement is that by standing taller, Familia’s changeup has improved.  Tomlin again:

“He’s staying taller than before, so he no longer comes around the side of his (circle) changeup. The switch enables him to get his arm up through the ball on all three of his pitches.”

How good has Familia’s stuff been in the zone?  Minor leaguers can’t hit it as his 34 hits allowed in 55.1 innings attest.

For Holt, it’s Mental
For Holt, whatever progress he’s made, and I’m a little skeptical that it’s real, has been mental, not physical.  Tomlin:

“The stuff is there. The ability is there. With some guys, their mechanics need to be straightened out. …. And for some (like Holt), it’s all about how they handle the mental side of pitching.”

Holt has walked 18 batters in his last 11.1 IP, and sent 6 wild pitches to the backstop.  He walked eight in four innings in his last start against New Hampshire, his fourth start against the Fisher Cats among his eight outings.

 
For Carson, it’s both
Apparently Carson needs to learn to command the whole strike zone:

“We wanted to get him using both sides of the plate,” Tomlin said. “In the past he was a little more one-side-of-the-plate dominant (to his glove side). We like to see our pitchers use both sides of the plate, and now he believes he can do that. Now the emphasis will be on the changeup and not being afraid to use it.

For what it’s worth, left-handers are hitting .265/.342/.353 against Carson in 34 AB and righties are bopping .294/.359/.452 against him in 126 AB.

For me, Familia is significantly ahead of  both Holt and Carson.