With the first half of the season in the books, I thought it would be good to get some perspective from Kevin Goldstein, of Baseball Prospectus.

Here is my conversation with KG:

MD: Wilmer Flores seems to have matured as a hitter a bit.  At 18, has he solidified himself as a premier hitting prospect?

KG: Premier?  That might be a bit strong.  The approach still needs work, the power is still developing, he’s still figuring out how to turn on balls, and he lacks a confident swing against lefties.  Those are all correctable and things that he has tons of time to figure out.  To be doing what he’s doing as a soon-to-be 19 year-old is very impressive.  But premier, at least to me, makes him an elite-level prospect, and I don’t think he’s that.  He can become that, certainly, but he’s not that yet.

MD: Flores has good hands and a plus throwing arm, with his lack of quickness and foot speed, do you eventually see him at 3rd base?

KG: I do think that’s the first place he’ll be tried once the Mets get him off shortstop, and I think he has a good, not great mind you, but good chance to stick there. Obviously, the hands and arm with help him there, but third base is not a natural switch like shortstop to second base is. Third base is a pure read and react position, and that’s an untested skill set for Flores. We can’t say if it will work or not because we haven’t seen it yet.

MD: Kirk Nieuwenhuis has shown he can hit. Can he be an average to above average everyday big league outfielder?

KG: That’s a question that a lot of scouts are asking these days. I do think he can be average to slightly above maybe if you think he can play center in the big leagues. If he can (and I don’t think he’ll ever be more than average defensively), then he can play every day. As a corner guy, I’m not sure it’s enough bat. I the best bet on him is an occasional starter/bench outfielder on a good team. That’s not an insult; I’m a big Capt. Kirk fan.

MD: Jeurys Familia, Kyle Allen, and Robert Carson have struggled with the transition to the FSL. What have reports shown to be the reasons for their struggles?

KG: With Familia, it’s pretty simple really, he’s just not throwing enough strikes. He’s walking guys, he’s uncorking wild pitches like it’s going out of style, he’s just all over the place, and then he’s overcompensating for it and taking things down a notch in order to throw strikes and that pretty much never works, so he’s a mess. Allen is in the same boat, where his command has regressed, so there are too many guys on base, and he’s yet to develop a second power pitch, as his slider is just a sweepy offering that doesn’t fool hitters at all. Carson has actually pitched much better of late, as his ERA is 3.22 in his last eight starts. (Edit: before Tuesday.) I would say he’s been pretty much as expected since the April problems. He’s doesn’t have any skills to be really excited about as much as he’s just good at the craft.

MD: Is there any reason to believe that Fernando Martinez can stay healthy for a full season?

KG: The evidence keeps piling up against his chances, doesn’t it? He obviously has the talent to keep getting chances, but it’s fantastically frustrating.

MD: Should the Mets just put Brad Holt in the bullpen, or does he still have an outside chance of being a starter long-term?

KG: Personally, I thought they should have put him in relief last year, so . . .

MD: Who have been the most disappointing and surprising prospects so far this season?

KG: I think you have to go with Ike Davis in some ways. He’s not a prospect anymore, but he started the year as one and he was so much better in 2009 than 2008, and he’s so much better now than he was last year. As far as guys still around, Reese Havens and Nieuwenhuis come to mind, just because they are proving it at Double-A, and that a huge step. One the downside, obviously Holt and Familia have been awful, leaving the Mets with a real shortage of power arms that are performing. Next year, hopefully Matt Harvey can change that.

MD: Who are some of the under-the-radar Mets prospects who are opening some eyes this season?

KG: I think lefty Mark Cohoon is one of those guys, but he definitely needs to move up and be tested further. There’s not a lot of stuff there, but he’s incredibly good at what he does, and just as importantly, he knows what he is. It’s a back-end rotation ceiling at best, but again, he has to get moving. My biggest sleeper might be Eric Campbell with Binghamton. Guy can really hit, and at 23, it’s not like he’s ridiculously old or anything.

MD: Can you give your thoughts on the handling of Jenrry Mejia. What are your concerns over his development as a starting pitcher, considering the extended use of him in the Mets bullpen? What were the benefits from him actually pitching in the big leagues this season?

KG: I don’t agree with having him in the big league bullpen to start the season either, but I don’t have a big problem with it either. As far as his development goes, it was just 10 weeks, and he’s 20 years old, so it’s not like there was some huge delay or damage done or anything. In the end, I’m sure he learned a lot of lessons when it comes to pitching to big leaguers and now he can work on his secondary stuff without the added pressure of big league win and losses on the line. Sure, he would have been better served by starting the year in Double-A, but it’s not that big a deal, either.

At Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein has his list of the top 101 prospects in baseball up.  Four Mets made the cut.

48. Jenrry Mejia
80. Fernando Martinez
84. Wilmer Flores
87. Ike Davis

Mejia’s in a class with 1B Brett Wallace, RHP Arodys Vizcaino, OF Ben Revere, and RHP Simon Castro in front of him and CF Austin Jackson, 1B Logan Morrison, 1B Freddie Freeman and RHP Jarrod Parker in behind him.  It’s an interesting group in that all of the players have at least one superlative tool, but a major question mark about other areas of their games.  In his chat, Goldstein likens Wallace to Lyle Overbay.

Down in the 80s, there are some Martinez-ish guys with injury histories of their own like Hank Conger and Jason Knapp and some college guys like the A’s Grant Green, Davis, and Mike Moustakas (#79 technically, but close enough) and some real youngersters like Zach Wheeler and Wilmer Flores.

In his chat, he offered substantive answers to one Martinez question, and one overall Mets question:

Pat (MA): So Fernando Martinez is younger than Jared Mitchell and has performed in every level of the minors at a young age, whereas Mitchell has had just a hundred or so at-bats in A-Ball, and he’s 19 slots ahead of F-Mart? Huh?

Kevin Goldstein: Well, one is a pure CF and one isn’t — that’s a huge difference right there, no?

ssimon (Pelham, NY): KG – NY question: Would you rather have #4 overall (Montero) or the four Mets guys at #48, 80, 84, 87?

Kevin Goldstein: Great question. In general, you want the elite guy.

Kevin Goldstein, of Baseball Prospectus, published his Top 11 Mets Prospects. Here is the list with a few notes from Goldstein:

1. Jenrry Mejia-His heater sits at 93-95 mph, touches 98, and features heavy, hard sink.
2. Fernando Martinez-Martinez still shows star-level offensive potential. He’s a good outfielder with an above-average arm.
3. Wilmer Flores-Flores has big offensive potential. His bat speed ranks with anyone in the system.
4. Ike Davis-Davis has classic first-base tools, with a good feel of the strike zone and plus to plus-plus raw power.
5. Jon Niese-The most advanced pitching prospect in the system.
6. Brad Holt-He fills the strike zone with a 91-94 heater that touches 96 mph when he reaches back for more.
7. Kirk Nieuwenhuis-Nieuwenhuis is a big athlete with solid tools across the board.
8. Josh Thole-Thole is a pure contact hitter who slaps balls to all fields, is especially difficult to strike out.
9. Kyle Allen-He’s long and projectable, and he flashed a solid slider and changeup at various times last year.
10. Ruben Tejada-Tejada could be a second-division starting middle infielder or, at the very least, a nice utility player.
11. Reese Havens-He could be a low-average second baseman who makes up for it with walks and power.

Goldstein also adds 4 more:
12. Jeurys Familia-Familia had the best pure arm on an impressive staff at Low-A Savannah last year.
13. Cesar Puello-An athletic Dominican who has impressive tools.
14. Jefry Marte-Marte wasn’t ready for a full-season league, but he has the ability to move back up the list.
15. Juan Urbina-He’s a big bonus Venezuelan who has crazy upside, but he needs considerable refinement.

To read about Goldstein’s summary of the Mets’ farm system, as well as more detailed notes on these players, click here.

Tuesday, Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus held a prospect chat and took two Mets questions, one on Jenrry Mejia and one on Wilmer Flores.

Rhys (Near Shea): Jenrry Mejia‘s been torched in the AFL. Is he the Mets top pitching prospect?

Kevin Goldstein: He’s easily the Mets top pitching prospect, as the arm is really special, despite the fact
that on the mound, he’s often a bit of a spectacular mess.

Wednesday’s line is a good example: 3 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 3 K leaving his AFL ERA at a swollen 12.56.  On the other hand, according to Gameday, his four-seam fastball was 94-96 with some 97s for good measure. More Mejia later.

Trevor127 (NYC): Kevin, What did scouts have to say about Wilmer Flores this year? Is there a concern about the power if he has to move from shortstop?

Kevin Goldstein: There’s just no way he’s a shortstop in the end, so it’s not an if, it’s a when. Still very talented for his age, so don’t get too crazy.

Both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America held chats on Friday with a fair amount of Mets content.  We’ll start with BP, and Kevin Goldstein because it opens up a wider range of issues and no one does it better than KG.

brian (Brooklyn NY): Are you a believer in Josh Thole? He cant be worse than Schneider and Santos, right?

Kevin Goldstein: If that’s your litmus test in me believing in him, then yet. Not a great defender, but can hit. Best comp I’ve heard from a scout is Darrin Fletcher.

I believe that the “yet” should be a “yes,” in a chat-induced typo.  I’ve already posted about Thole yesterday, so we’re not going to go over this again, but he should see some big league action in September.

Carl (Buffalo, NY): When do you see Ruben Tejada making an impact in the majors and what kind of impact do you see him making?

Kevin Goldstein: Ruben Tejada is going to be a big leaguer, but not an impact one. For me, he’s kind of a future Enrique Wilson kind of player.

I thought this answer was a little flip, so I responded:

Toby (www.metsminorleagueblog.com): re: Tejada & Enrique Wilson Don’t you have to acknowledge that Tejada’s hitting .285/.350/.366 at age 19 is more impressive than anything in Wilson’s MiLB track record? Wilson was in the Appy League at 19 and didn’t reach AA until age 22 when he hit .304/.346/.390. I’m not arguing that Tejada will be a star, because he lacks power, but I think you’re a little light on him.

Kevin Goldstein: First off, NOBODY covers the Mets system in depth as well as Toby. Second, I think you are taking the comp far too literally. I’m saying Tejada is the kind of guy who could be an occasional starter, mostly utility guys who last for around a decade, that’s all.

I get where Goldstein is going: Tejada’s going to be a big leaguer, but never an impact guy, but I think that’s Tejada’s low-end outcome given what he’s down at AA at his age going .282/.346/.363 in 122 games with 33 walks and 55 strikeouts in 443 AB.

Wilson played more than 100 games in a MLB season once, when played 113 games for Cleveland in 1999 at age 25 where he hit .262/.310/.352 .  But lets move away from Enrique Wilson, to find a better comp for Tejada.

How does Tejada compare to the Mets current utility middle-infield type, Anderson Hernandez?  Hernandez spent his age-19 season in the FSL where he hit .259/.310/.339 for Lakeland, striking out 102 times and walking 33 times in 410 AB over 123 G in 2002.  He didn’t reach reach AA until his age 21 season, two years older than Tejada, when he hit .274/.326/.376 in 101 games for Erie with 89 K and 26 walks.   The thing distinguishing Hernandez and Tejada at the plate is Tejada’s superior batting eye and many fewer strikeouts.  In 2008, in the the FSL, Tejada fanned just 77 times in 131 games and earned 41 walks in 497 AB in 131 games.  At a younger age, he was swinging and missing far less ofter than Hernandez, while walking more.  So, Tejada has been better than Hernandez at the same level at a younger age.

On Tejada’s PECOTA projections page at Prospectus, his second-best comp is Joaquin Arias, the player to be named later in the Yankees-Rangers trade of Alfonso Soriano for Alex Rodriguez. I know Arias’s game well, he was with the Stockton Ports in 2004, when I broadcast for the team.  In 2004, at age 19, Arias hit .300/.344/.396 in 500 AB over 123 games  with just 53 strikeouts against 31 walks.  That year, Arias engaged in a one-man crusade against the idea that there was no such thing as clutch hitting, when he hit something like .500 with the bases loaded, and had a big day on the penultimate day of the season going 2-2 with a double, a homer and 5 RBI to reach the .300 plateau before leaving the game, but we digress.  He was more physical than Tejada but moved more mechanically to Tejada’s fluididity.  In any case, Arias’s advanced-A numbers at age 19, look a lot like Tejada’s AA numbers at age 19  even down to the same number of doubles (19 for Arias and 20 for Tejada).  The problem with the comparison is that when Arias moved up to AA Frisco at age 20 in 2005, he walked roughly never in a .315/.335/.423 season with 17 walks against 46 K in 499 AB over 120 games.  He would never walk 30 times in a season again.  So, again, the problem is that Arias didn’t walk as much as Tejada and was a year older, by the time he hit AA.

If Mets fans want to think wildly optimistically, how about Asdrubal Cabrera? A gifted defensive shortstop in the Mariners chain, Cabrera rose rapidly through the upper minors age 19 and then bounced around for two years before establishing himself as a regular at 22 and blossoming into a borderline star at age 23 in 2009.  At age 19, Cabrera began the year in the Midwest Leage where he hit .318/.407/.474 in 51 games, showing fine plate discipline with 30 walks and 32 K.  Promoted to the advanced-A California League, Cabrera hit .284/.325/.418 with 15 walks and 47 K in 225 AB over 55 games.  The Mariners moved him up to AAA Tacoma to finish that season and had him begin the 2006 season at the same level at age 20 where he hit .236/.323/.360 with 24 BB and 51 K in 203 AB over 60 games.  After the Indians stole him for Eduardo Perez, they assigned him to their AAA affiliate in Buffalo where he didn’t hit much.

However, give the Indians credit.  In 2007, they sent the 22 year old Cabrera back down to AA where he exploded for 8 HR as part of a .310/.383/.454 line in 96 games with Akron.  He finished up with 45 games in the big leagues at age 21 hitting a solid .283/.354/.421.  Cabrera held his own in the bigsas a 22-year old last year hitting .259/.346/.366 before becoming one of baseball’s better hitting middle infielders at .313/.363/.447 in 2009.  One of the differences between his 08 and his 09 was his BABIP which rose from .316 to .374 with a more modest uptick in his linedrive rate from 20.9% to 22.2%.

By the way, according to minorleaguesplits.com, Tejada has increased his LD% every year, reaching 14% this year.

Or for another wildly optimistic comp, how about Robinson Cano, who hit .280/.341/.366 in his first exposure to AA at age 20.  I’ll throw this out as non-sensical.  Cano had already shown real game power by belting 14 HR in the SAL at age 19.

On the less whimsical side Jose Lopez, who owns a  1.5 WAR in ’09, played in AA at age 19 as well, hitting .258/.303/.403 for AA San Antonio in ’03.  In 538 AB, Lopez didn’t strike out much (56 whiffs) and rarely walked (27).

So, where does this leave Tejada?  Pretty much where we started.  His plate discipline is very unusual for a player of his age at AA: no other player in our brief look at middle infielders at AA walked as much as Tejada.  However, because his power is so minimal, he will need to maintain that discipline.  Moreover, as we’ve seen in these few examples, power really does develop later than other skills.

He’s looking like a big leaguer, but his ultimate value is a wide open question.  He’s performed better at a younger age than some players who have been among the better offensive second basemen this year, while sharing similarities with guys like Arias who have never held a big league job.  On the positive end, Tejada hold up well in comparison to Asdrubal Cabrera.   Even in Cabrera’s case, he needed nearly two full years in the upper minors at age 20 and 21, before realizing value in the big leagues.

So use this as a note of caution on Tejada’s timetable as well.  Let him go to the AFL this year.  Let him start 2010 in AAA.  His own performance and development will indicate much more fully what he can become.  I’m also looking forward to what PECOTA and the other projection systems come up with for Tejada this winter.

fjm(anuel) (ny): Speaking of the tough life of a first base prospect, can Ike Davis hit enough to be a mid-order big league hitter?

Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s borderline. He’s definitely looking good of late, but future stud? Not so sure.

brian (brooklyn): Is Kirk Nieuwenhuis any kind of a prospect?

Kevin Goldstein: Capt. Kirk (he’s a Met for those not familiar) is one of the hottest hitters in the Florida State League, and yes, he’s at least some kind of prospect.

More Nieu-y from BA:

From JJ Cooper at Baseball America:

Lance (Memphis): With his strong finish to the season and his combination of power and speed, Nieuwenhuis seems to be making a case to be among the Mets top 10 prospects. Where do you think he ranks among Mets prospects?

J.J. Cooper: He’s got to be in the discussion. He’s among the Mets minor league leaders in HRs and SBs and has shown that he could handle skipping low Class A. He just turned 22, so it’s good that he did skip low A from a developmental standpoint. As far as having a combination of speed, power and an ability to hit, Nieuwenhuis ranks among the better Mets prospects. One aside with this. In looking up where Nieuwenhuis ranked in the Mets organization in multiple categories, it jumps out that no one in the Mets system has more than 18 stolen bases this year, which is pretty shocking for the team that always used to have an Esix Snead, Wayne Lydon or Angel Pagan bouncing around.

As I wrote about this morning, Kirk Nieuwenhuis is in the midst of the best run for a Mets minor league hitter all year.

This afternoon, Baseball America put him at #2 on their Prospect Hot Sheet:

Sorry Kirk, but we just blew the lid off your stealth campaign in the Florida State League. Only a five-homer showing by Brett Wallace in Triple-A stood in the way of a No. 1 ranking. Batting .259/.346/.441 with 15 homers, 27 doubles, 64 RBIs and 16 steals (in 20 attempts), Nieuwenhuis leads the FSL in home runs, extra-base hits (46) and runs scored (81).

By the way, both BP and BA recognized former Mets today as well.

BA dropped Deolis Guerra onto the Hot Sheet at #11.

Also, at Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein wrote about Maikel Cleto who threw 3 scoreless innings with six strikeouts for low-A Clinton last night.

Going from the Mets to the Mariners in the complicated J.J. Putz trade completed last winter, Cleto begin the year on Seattle’s Double-A roster, only he wasn’t actually with the team, as the 20-year-old Domincan’s problems with getting a visa in order to return to the States turned into a nearly four-month affair. Still shaking the rust off, Cleto is one of the harder throwers in the minors, often getting into the mid-to-upper 90s with his fastball, but he still needs to work on his secondary stuff and command.

At his Minor League Update, Kevin Goldstein at BP wrote about Darrell Ceciliani today:

Darrell Ceciliani, OF, Mets (Rookie-Level Kingsport)
Thursday’s stats: 4-for-5, 2 R, RBI, K, CS
A fourth-round pick this year out of a small community college in Washington, Ceciliani is a excellent athlete with plus speed, gap power who needs less time adjusting to pro ball as his college team played with wood bats. He just turned 19 last month, is 14-for-30 in his last seven games and .301/.393/.452 overall in 20 pro games, and scouts are taking notice.

Baseball America put B-Mets 1B Ike Davis at #13 on this week’s Prospect Hot Sheet.

Why He’s Here: .385/.467/.692 (10-for-26), 2 HR, 2 2B, 6 RBIs, 6 R, 4 BB, 4 SO
The Scoop: Davis has clubbed more home runs this season (12) and compiled a higher slugging percentage (.486) than any of the other four first-round first basemen from the ’08 draft. That’s a group that includes Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak, David Cooper and Allan Dykstra. To be fair, Smoak began the year in Double-A and has moved up to Triple-A, unlike Davis who started in high Class A, but then Smoak has enjoyed much friendlier hitting environments along the way.

Baseball America shows some love for Wilmer Flores:

You won’t find low Class A Savannah SS Wilmer Flores‘ (Mets) names among the South Atlantic League leaders, not with the way he started. But the 17-year-old Venezuelan batted .391/.444/.565 (9-for-23) on the week, with a home run, a double, six runs scored and five RBIs. His season has been trending up, as he’s now hit .300 or better in both July and August—a combined 53-for-173 (.306)—and has raised his season line to .286/.325/.368 through 85 games. While Flores possesses very little speed and hasn’t hit for a ton of game power, his bat control remains impressive. He’s got just 42 whiffs on the year, and since July he’s fanned in just 10 percent of his at-bats