TH: From reader UBE 13: How come Lagares over Puello and Nieuwenhuis [pictured at right], given that Lagares’s success is almost solely BABIP driven?

KG: Well, nobody is saying Lagares is going to hit .370. But he does have a better hit tool then Puello or Capt. Kirk, and that matters, and none of them is going to be a center fielder in the big leagues. Puello is still far more tools than reality, and his approach is a complete mess, while Nieuwenhuis is certainly the most likely to have a career, but the ceiling is questionable.

TH: As a follow-up from me, you wrote that Lagares could grow into 15-18 HR annually, while his career-high is nine from 2011. Nieuwenhuis has a couple of 15+ HR seasons to his credit in 2009 and 2010. Do you think Nieuwenhuis, who’s about a year and a half older, has come closer to maxing out his power development?

KG: I do. The thing about Nieuwenhuis is that he’s kind of a what you see is what you get type. There are so few weaknesses in his game, but no star-level tools either.

TH: Dave in Spain wants to know: Which prospect in this Top 20 has the best chance of shooting up the rankings this year? Who could drop off the radar completely?

Kevin: Well, first off, tell Dave that he is in friggin’ SPAIN, and has better things to do than worry about Mets prospects.

TH: like drink good spanish wine, and eat delish spanish cheese?

KG: Or just, you know, hang out in Spain.

KG: Akeel Morris has really great stuff and it all looks right and will a few refinements, I could see him moving up significantly next year. As far as the opposite goes, I realize he’s young, but at some point Wilmer Flores has to hit to the position he’s going to end up at.

TH: Good answers. I’ve been getting lots of Valdespin questions. You have him ranked as a 2B. I’ve never talked to anyone outside the Mets organization who thinks he can play shortstop. Have you?

Kevin: Not really. One of those frustrating types who has the athetlicism for the position, but just can’t play it.

TH: And because of this, and the fact that he has some strike zone control, I still have Reese Havens ahead of Valdespin. You went tools of Valdespin. Am I just being stubborn? How hard a decision was this for you, recognizing that they’re separated only by Jenrry Mejia’s surgically repaired UCL in your rankings?

KG: Havens is incredibly hard to rank, at least for me. What do you do with a player like that? Like I wrote, if he had been healthy throughout his career, he’s already be the Mets second baseman, and probably an established one. But here we are, and he misses 80 games a year. His career high is 97, and that’s three years ago now. What do we do with that?

TH: Hope he doesn’t develop arthritis like Fernando Martinez? Sorry, cheap Mets joke.

KG: Exactly. At some point it’s going to take it’s toll.

TH: The perfectgame wants to know: “Did you give C Albert Cordero any consideration for a spot at the back end of your Top 20? Cordero and LHP Josh Edgin, while neither a top prospect, are two of the guys I’m most interested in following this season. Any thoughts on either player?” I know Edgin was your sleeper

KG: Edgin was my sleeper, and I know the Mets think he can move quickly, and scouts agree. As for Cordero, he not only received consideration, he was the LAST cut from the list, so he’s No. 21.

TH: As long as we’re on guys who missed. I think I’m the highest on Aderlin Rodriguez of anyone still out there. I get the negatives: the batting average was iffy this year, he swings all the time, he struggles at third. Still, he has significantly more power than Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte, both of whom still land in your Top 20. How much did Rodriguez miss by?

Kevin: He would have been in the 20s. I just don’t think he’s anything more than a 1B, and 1B can’t have the kind of holes in their game that he does.

TH: So the implied logic is that you give Marte a better chance of staying at third than Rodriguez?

Kevin: and a batter chance to hit more than his weight.

TH: Ooof.

Kevin: Look, Aderlin has CRAZY raw power, but that’s it. Every other aspect of his game is a mess right now.

TH: Yeah. I think I’ve written nearly that exact sentence. I saw a lot of Aderlin in 2011.

KG: Sure, you know him as good as anyone. You’ve seen the mess and once ever eight days he hits a ball 430 feet.

TH: Pretty much. With lots of pop-ups in between. I guess for me, he has a plus, if not better, MLB tool. I’m not sure Marte does. And Aderlin’s arm is better.

Kevin: Marte is at 17, and that was a late surge. A couple of scouts in the Arizona Fall League had good things to say about him, at least offensively, so I put him up there, to the chagrin of our Cordero fan.

TH: Ha. Right.

TH: More from reader UBE13: Do you hold out any hope for Cory Vaughn?

KG: minor, tiny hope

TH: Ok, lets step back a moment from individual guys. Is there anything that made the Mets list particularly difficult from your perspective?

KG: Not really. They’re all hard, you know? I flip them all over the place and talk to a lot of people and I’m never 100% comfortable. But there was nothing specific to the Mets list.

me: Thank you!

Kevin: no problem

TH: Lets start at the top. How close was Harvey [pictured at right] and Wheeler at #1 for you, and should Mets fans worry about the difference?

KG: They really shouldn’t. My Top 101 isn’t out yet, but I can tell you that the two are a whopping five slots apart. I went back and forth on them plenty of times and if I did this again in four weeks, maybe Wheeler would be one. They really are that close.

TH: Ok. Same theme. I’ve got Jeurys Familia ahead of Wheeler because 1. he’s had success at AA and 2. throws more consistently harder. Looks like you took Wheeler’s upside. How far apart in some prospect-y world do you have Familia?

KG: Pretty far between Wheeler and Familia for me — hold on one sec. So Familia is good, but what’s good? It’s a fastball that’s arguably better than Harvey or Wheeler, but the secondary stuff is not as good, and with the delivery and the arm soreness, you have to wonder if he’s not just a reliever in the end. It’s at least in the back of your mind, and that matters.

TH: Fair. How much did Jenrry Mejia’s TJ surgery affect his prospect ranking?

KG: It has to play a role, just in the sense that even though the recovery rate for that is fantastic, it’s not 100% and that kind of thing, like Familia, creates questions about future role. Not every pitcher is designed to throw 200 innings a year. In fact, few are.

TH:  I like this question, from reader Sylvan: Is there anyone outside of your top 20 who struck you as having especially high upside (but, presumably, too far from the majors to earn a spot on the list)?

KG: How about Domingo Tapia, just as a highly projectable righty with upside.

TH: Yup. How about a ceiling and then a “most realistic” outcome for Darin Gorski?

KG: That’s a helluva start.

TH:  ?

KG: I’m kind of laughing because ceiling is No. 4 or 5 starter and that might be the most realistic outcome too. That or a middle reliever.
TH: Chris Schwinden snuck onto the back of your Top 20 list. Really a fifth starter? I figured he’d be a 27th man on the roster, bouncing between AAA and the big leagues.

Kevin: Possibly a fifth starter, and close enough that I was comfortable putting him there.

Five-Star Prospects
1. Matt Harvey, RHP
2. Zack Wheeler, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
3. Jeurys Familia, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Brandon Nimmo, OF
5. Juan Lagares, OF
6. Jordany Valdespin, 2B
7. Jenrry Mejia, RHP
8. Reese Havens, 2B
9. Cesar Puello, OF
10. Michael Fulmer, RHP
11. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF

His overall comments:

System In 20 Words Or Less: With improvement coming via all three areas—draft, trades, international—the Mets are finally moving in the right direction.

Summary: It’s easy to look at the Mets system and see a pitching staff of the future. As for where the runs are going to come from, that’s still a bit of a mystery.

Kevin has agreed to do a Q & A about this list, so fire off questions in the comments section.

Here’s a money quote:

We can safely say that the youngest 20 percent of high school hitters in any particular year will return, on average, about double what the oldest 20 percent of high school hitters will.

And translating it to specific picks:

The data from 1965 to 1996 suggested that a player drafted #100 overall could be expected to perform as well as a player one year older who was drafted #24 overall. But from 1997 to 2003, the impact of age was so great that the 17-year-old player drafted #100 was as valuable as the 18-year-old player drafted #13 overall.

There’s an obvious Mets implication for Brandon Nimmo and Philip Evans, which we’ll explore next.

Q: Thank you for the chat: Any word on Juan Urbina this year? He’s giving up an awful lot of HR’s so far..

KG: Talked to a scout who saw his last start. Up to 93, some feel for the secondary stuff. He’s very raw, but there’s real talent there.

Q: What kind of ceiling/reasonable future can we expect from Familia?

KG: Bullpen arm, but a damn good one.

Q: Do the Mets have any closer candidates on their farm?

KG: Familia.

Q: is Wilmer Flores still a prospect?

KG: Barely.

ESPN.com’s Keith Law:

In acquiring pitching prospect Zack Wheeler from the San Francisco Giants for Carlos Beltran, theNew York Mets made out like bandits. …

Wheeler, who ranked No. 31 on my most recent prospect rankings, is an elite pitching prospect with a high ceiling. The right-hander will most likely be a solid No. 2 starter, but there is some chance he will be better than that because of the big fastball. He’ll touch 97 mph and sits 91-94 or better with an above-average curveball that has shown it can miss bats. He has a fringy changeup that’s a little too firm, and left-handed hitters are not impressed yet, as they’ve hit .292/.404/.487 against him this year. The fastball-breaking ball combo is top-notch, but between the changeup and a few other issues, Wheeler is high-risk as well as high-reward. His control is below average, with three starts this year in which he walked five or more batters, and he’ll have to show durability to match his frame, as he’s retired more than 18 batters just twice this year. You have to add an arm like that to your system any time you get the opportunity, but even as a fan of Wheeler’s I admit he’s no sure thing.

Baseball Prospectus

To their credit, the Mets had no designs on saving money by dealing Beltran, nor seemingly in acquiring depth. Rather, from the outside, their decision-making process revolved around finding the single best prospect that could, leading to the rare one-for-one deal, as Beltran is bound for the Bay Area in return for 2009 first-round pick Zack Wheeler. It’s easy to find dings in Wheeler, who has a 3.99 ERA in 16 starts for High-A San Jose, especially in his command and control and an arm slot that makes him susceptible to lefties, but he also has mid-90s heat, a sharp breaking ball, and one of those bodies that just looks like an All-Star starter. He has a front-of-the-rotation ceiling but hardly a good chance of reaching it, yet any pitcher with a non-zero chance of getting to that level is the kind of pitching prospect that everyone looks for—be it in trades, the draft, or through the international market.

…

There is such a thing as a pitching prospect, his name is Zack Wheeler, and while chances are good he’ll be a big leaguer, chances are poor that he’ll turn into a star. Nonetheless, he’s exactly what the Mets needed.

Baseball America

The sixth overall pick in 2009, Wheeler logged just 59 innings last season as he dealt with a cracked fingernail on his pitching hand—though he used the down time to iron out his pitching mechanics. A full recovery is evident in Wheeler’s performance this season. He ranks among the California League leaders in strikeout rate (10.0 per nine innings, fifth) and opponent average (.224, fourth). But while he’s given up just seven homers in 16 starts, he’s been too liberal with walks, handing out 4.8 per nine innings. Wheeler sits in the low- to mid-90s and can dial his plus fastball up to 96 mph with a quick, easy arm action. His curveball doesn’t always feature power or shape at this stage, and his changeup sometimes lacks finish, but he’s flashed plus with both pitches at various points. If Wheeler sharpens at least one of them to above-average status, he’s got front-of-the-rotation potential.

Jeurys Familia, RHP, Mets (Double-A Binghamton)
Few pitchers in baseball have done more for their stock this year than Familia, who entered the year as a big arm with plenty to figure out, and is suddenly among the best pitching prospects in the system. … last year despite mid-90s heat, many projected Familia as a reliever, but that’s no longer the case, … His stuff hasn’t taken a step forward (not that it needed to), but his control has improved by leaps and bounds; after walking 74 over 121 innings last year, he’s handed out just 11 complementary pizzas in 50 1/3. This season is critical in terms of defining his future role; six weeks in, he not only looks like a sure-fire starter, but an above-average one at that.

Your top three Mets pitching prospects are clearly Matt Harvey, Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia.   How you rank them is up to you.  Coming into the year, I had them at Mejia, Harvey and Familia.   Now?

Flores has never put up big numbers in the minors, but he is also one of those prospects who has always had the excuse of being young for his level, as he is spending his second year at High-A and doesn’t turn 20 until August. That being said, his scouting reports are beginning to be a concern. As a player without much patience or power, much of his value revolves around his ability to hit for average, and as his .284/.329/.328 line suggests, he is still not doing enough of it, especially for whatever position he ends up at. “He’s the worst shortstop I’ve ever seen… he couldn’t play shortstop on my son’s 10-year-old team,” said one scout who recently saw him in the Florida State League. “He obviously has some ability with the bat, but I don’t like the swing or the approach, and I’m not sure he’ll ever have much power,” he continued. “It’s a bad bat, a bad athlete, and after clocking him at 4.75 seconds to first base while running all-out on a double play, I think he probably has to play first base, so he better hit.”

 

First the news that Flores isn’t going to play shortstop in the Major Leagues: not news.

And yes, he could play SS on your son’s little league team, and he would be damn good at it.  The quote sounds good, it’s entertaining, but it’s exaggerated for emphasis.  (Duh.)

The news that Flores isn’t really fast: also not news.

The news here, and really the only news here, is that this scout doesn’t like Flores’ ability to hit.  This is interesting, and deserves further elucidation.

As for the fallacy of using April numbers to suggest that a guy hasn’t going to hit, or isn’t going to hit, well after two more hits Monday night, Flores, still at age 19, is up to .297/.337/.338.

Last year, Flores did not draw a single walk, nor did he strike out for the first week of the South Atlantic League season.  As he became more comfortable, he started drawing a few walks and finished April with 11 extra-base hits in his final 13 games in the month.

I made this point repeatedly last year, after Flores’ late April-early May surge with Savannah, he slowed down considerably.  On May 16, 2010, he was hitting .364/.418/.589 in 151 AB.  In his next 126 SAL at bats, through the All-Star Game on June 21, he hit .175/.254/.246.  It was at this point that he was promoted to St. Lucie where he finished up in the FSL and hit .300/.324/.415 with 18 doubles (good), and nine walks (not enough) in the final 67 games of 2010.

Playing most of the year as an 18-year old in 2010, Flores hit 36 doubles between the SAL and the FSL.  That’s pretty impressive.

Just last week, Friday, I think, I talked to a scout about Flores and Cesar Puello.  I asked him if he had to pick one, which player would he choose.  He hemmed and hawed, noting that Flores, was for him the safer pick.  Wilmer he thought, was going to hit.  The issue the scout noted, was that he might not have a position.

The vast majority of scouts I’ve talked to (and it’s been a pretty considerable number) think Flores will hit some.  They have all been concerned about his potential position.  This really is a big issue moving forward.

The worst example of a guy who had to move off shortstop: Joel Guzman, who Ben Badler recently ranked as one of the greatest prospect disappointments ($) ever.  Keep this in mind too.  Miguel Cabrera, who’s been listed elsewhere as Flores’ best case comparable hit .274/.333/.421 as a 19-year old in the Florida State League in 2002 as a 19-year old.  (The next season, at age 20, he crushed AA pitching at a .365/.429/.609 rate for 69 games before his MLB debut.)  The fact that I could reference one of the game’s great hitters and a complete bust of a prospect in the same paragraph without too much of a stretch again should point out the huge variance in outcomes around a 19-year old player.

I am not suggesting that Flores will turn into Miguel Cabrera on the field, but walking away from a 19-year old bat, or saying that he’s not going to hit for power because of a slow month of April in the FSL, doesn’t make much sense.  Flores isn’t a can’t miss prospect because there’s no such thing as a can’t miss prospect.

The point is, if you liked Flores before Monday, you should still like him. If you were more concerned about his future power potential and a corresponding move down the defensive spectrum, well, you should still be concerned.

Fernando Martinez just showed us something beautiful in that AB vs the LHP. Patience, patience, and bat speed. #stayhealthykid #Mets

Adam Foster of Project Prospect also tweeted about Martinez’s potential:

As a 1B, I think he has 30+ HR potential and could put up a wOBA around .360 RT @MeanyMikey: Any projections for F-Mart?

It’s worth next to nothing, but Martinez has been productive in his 20 plate appearances this spring, going 7-for-17 (.412) with two doubles, and a home run.  I think more importantly than a few base hits, or even some power, is that he’s drawn three walks and fanned four times.  That’s a very nice piece of strike zone control.
I also pointed out that he needs a better nickname than F-Mart, which just sounds boring and cheap.

Rushing the Kids
Good job by Rob Castellano at Amazin’ Avenue for picking up on a really good piece of Baseball Prospectus research about how teams promote their young players.
Here’s the takehome: for the period of 2005-2009 Mets’ position players had the fewest Minor League AB and their pitchers had the fewest IP, by a lot.  The average WARP generated by all Mets in their first two seasons in this five year sample was second from the bottom, better only than the Mariners.
Sure, injuries at the big league level play a part, but other players on other teams get injured.  The Mets just didn’t have the organizational depth to cover for those injuries, and they rushed guys to the big leagues before they were ready to contribute.
It’s pretty damning stuff about the prior regime.

Two other tangentially points:

1. even though BPro has added a whole bunch of new writers recently, I’ve found that my consumption of BPro material is way, way down from my 2007 peak.  Anyone else?

2. I wrote an article for the 2010 Amazin’ Avenue Annual on the Mets propensity to rush prospects under the leadership of Omar Minaya and Tony Bernazard.

Chicken and Waffles and the Next Great Ballpark Food
CNBC.com and the Savannah Sand Gnats are running a promo to vote on the next great culinary addition to Historic Grayson Stadium for the 2011 season.
You can go vote here.
I voted for the stadium style Chicken and waffles for the meal and the grilled smores panini with nutella for desert.

He’s got Jenrry Mejia at #45, Matt Harvey at #75 and Wilmer Flores at #98.

For the record, here are the three guys above and below each young Met.

Messin’ with Mejia
42. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Diamondbacks
43. Drew Pomeranz, RHP, Indians
44. Nick Franklin, SS, Mariners
45. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Mets
46. Billy Hamilton, 2B/SS, Reds
47. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs
48. Casey Kelly, RHP, Padres

Hangin’ with Harvey
72. Kenley Jansen, RHP, Dodgers
73. Jake McGee, LHP, Rays
74. Michael Choice, OF, Athletics
75. Matt Harvey, RHP, Mets
76. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Royals
77. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Royals
78. Jurickson Profar, SS, Rangers

Flores’ Friends
95. A.J. Cole, RHP, Nationals
96. Guillermo Pimentel, OF, Mariners
97. Jaff Decker, OF, Padres
98. Wilmer Flores, SS, Mets
99. Trayvon Robinson, OF, Dodgers
100. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Red Sox
101. Donavan Tate, OF, Padres