Reaction from the baseball prospect experts regarding the Mets acquisition of Zack Wheeler has been uniformly positive.

ESPN.com’s Keith Law:

In acquiring pitching prospect Zack Wheeler from the San Francisco Giants for Carlos Beltran, theNew York Mets made out like bandits. …

Wheeler, who ranked No. 31 on my most recent prospect rankings, is an elite pitching prospect with a high ceiling. The right-hander will most likely be a solid No. 2 starter, but there is some chance he will be better than that because of the big fastball. He’ll touch 97 mph and sits 91-94 or better with an above-average curveball that has shown it can miss bats. He has a fringy changeup that’s a little too firm, and left-handed hitters are not impressed yet, as they’ve hit .292/.404/.487 against him this year. The fastball-breaking ball combo is top-notch, but between the changeup and a few other issues, Wheeler is high-risk as well as high-reward. His control is below average, with three starts this year in which he walked five or more batters, and he’ll have to show durability to match his frame, as he’s retired more than 18 batters just twice this year. You have to add an arm like that to your system any time you get the opportunity, but even as a fan of Wheeler’s I admit he’s no sure thing.

Baseball Prospectus

To their credit, the Mets had no designs on saving money by dealing Beltran, nor seemingly in acquiring depth. Rather, from the outside, their decision-making process revolved around finding the single best prospect that could, leading to the rare one-for-one deal, as Beltran is bound for the Bay Area in return for 2009 first-round pick Zack Wheeler. It’s easy to find dings in Wheeler, who has a 3.99 ERA in 16 starts for High-A San Jose, especially in his command and control and an arm slot that makes him susceptible to lefties, but he also has mid-90s heat, a sharp breaking ball, and one of those bodies that just looks like an All-Star starter. He has a front-of-the-rotation ceiling but hardly a good chance of reaching it, yet any pitcher with a non-zero chance of getting to that level is the kind of pitching prospect that everyone looks for—be it in trades, the draft, or through the international market.

…

There is such a thing as a pitching prospect, his name is Zack Wheeler, and while chances are good he’ll be a big leaguer, chances are poor that he’ll turn into a star. Nonetheless, he’s exactly what the Mets needed.

Baseball America

The sixth overall pick in 2009, Wheeler logged just 59 innings last season as he dealt with a cracked fingernail on his pitching hand—though he used the down time to iron out his pitching mechanics. A full recovery is evident in Wheeler’s performance this season. He ranks among the California League leaders in strikeout rate (10.0 per nine innings, fifth) and opponent average (.224, fourth). But while he’s given up just seven homers in 16 starts, he’s been too liberal with walks, handing out 4.8 per nine innings. Wheeler sits in the low- to mid-90s and can dial his plus fastball up to 96 mph with a quick, easy arm action. His curveball doesn’t always feature power or shape at this stage, and his changeup sometimes lacks finish, but he’s flashed plus with both pitches at various points. If Wheeler sharpens at least one of them to above-average status, he’s got front-of-the-rotation potential.

From Monday’s Ten-Pack over at Baseball Prospectus:

Jeurys Familia, RHP, Mets (Double-A Binghamton)
Few pitchers in baseball have done more for their stock this year than Familia, who entered the year as a big arm with plenty to figure out, and is suddenly among the best pitching prospects in the system. … last year despite mid-90s heat, many projected Familia as a reliever, but that’s no longer the case, … His stuff hasn’t taken a step forward (not that it needed to), but his control has improved by leaps and bounds; after walking 74 over 121 innings last year, he’s handed out just 11 complementary pizzas in 50 1/3. This season is critical in terms of defining his future role; six weeks in, he not only looks like a sure-fire starter, but an above-average one at that.

Your top three Mets pitching prospects are clearly Matt Harvey, Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia.   How you rank them is up to you.  Coming into the year, I had them at Mejia, Harvey and Familia.   Now?

Monday, at Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein wrote about SS Wilmer Flores:

Flores has never put up big numbers in the minors, but he is also one of those prospects who has always had the excuse of being young for his level, as he is spending his second year at High-A and doesn’t turn 20 until August. That being said, his scouting reports are beginning to be a concern. As a player without much patience or power, much of his value revolves around his ability to hit for average, and as his .284/.329/.328 line suggests, he is still not doing enough of it, especially for whatever position he ends up at. “He’s the worst shortstop I’ve ever seen… he couldn’t play shortstop on my son’s 10-year-old team,” said one scout who recently saw him in the Florida State League. “He obviously has some ability with the bat, but I don’t like the swing or the approach, and I’m not sure he’ll ever have much power,” he continued. “It’s a bad bat, a bad athlete, and after clocking him at 4.75 seconds to first base while running all-out on a double play, I think he probably has to play first base, so he better hit.”

 

First the news that Flores isn’t going to play shortstop in the Major Leagues: not news.

And yes, he could play SS on your son’s little league team, and he would be damn good at it.  The quote sounds good, it’s entertaining, but it’s exaggerated for emphasis.  (Duh.)

The news that Flores isn’t really fast: also not news.

The news here, and really the only news here, is that this scout doesn’t like Flores’ ability to hit.  This is interesting, and deserves further elucidation.

As for the fallacy of using April numbers to suggest that a guy hasn’t going to hit, or isn’t going to hit, well after two more hits Monday night, Flores, still at age 19, is up to .297/.337/.338.

Last year, Flores did not draw a single walk, nor did he strike out for the first week of the South Atlantic League season.  As he became more comfortable, he started drawing a few walks and finished April with 11 extra-base hits in his final 13 games in the month.

I made this point repeatedly last year, after Flores’ late April-early May surge with Savannah, he slowed down considerably.  On May 16, 2010, he was hitting .364/.418/.589 in 151 AB.  In his next 126 SAL at bats, through the All-Star Game on June 21, he hit .175/.254/.246.  It was at this point that he was promoted to St. Lucie where he finished up in the FSL and hit .300/.324/.415 with 18 doubles (good), and nine walks (not enough) in the final 67 games of 2010.

Playing most of the year as an 18-year old in 2010, Flores hit 36 doubles between the SAL and the FSL.  That’s pretty impressive.

Just last week, Friday, I think, I talked to a scout about Flores and Cesar Puello.  I asked him if he had to pick one, which player would he choose.  He hemmed and hawed, noting that Flores, was for him the safer pick.  Wilmer he thought, was going to hit.  The issue the scout noted, was that he might not have a position.

The vast majority of scouts I’ve talked to (and it’s been a pretty considerable number) think Flores will hit some.  They have all been concerned about his potential position.  This really is a big issue moving forward.

The worst example of a guy who had to move off shortstop: Joel Guzman, who Ben Badler recently ranked as one of the greatest prospect disappointments ($) ever.  Keep this in mind too.  Miguel Cabrera, who’s been listed elsewhere as Flores’ best case comparable hit .274/.333/.421 as a 19-year old in the Florida State League in 2002 as a 19-year old.  (The next season, at age 20, he crushed AA pitching at a .365/.429/.609 rate for 69 games before his MLB debut.)  The fact that I could reference one of the game’s great hitters and a complete bust of a prospect in the same paragraph without too much of a stretch again should point out the huge variance in outcomes around a 19-year old player.

I am not suggesting that Flores will turn into Miguel Cabrera on the field, but walking away from a 19-year old bat, or saying that he’s not going to hit for power because of a slow month of April in the FSL, doesn’t make much sense.  Flores isn’t a can’t miss prospect because there’s no such thing as a can’t miss prospect.

The point is, if you liked Flores before Monday, you should still like him. If you were more concerned about his future power potential and a corresponding move down the defensive spectrum, well, you should still be concerned.

Fernando Martinez
Fernando Martinez was 0-3 yesterday, but he did impress our own Mike Diaz, who tweeted:

Fernando Martinez just showed us something beautiful in that AB vs the LHP. Patience, patience, and bat speed. #stayhealthykid #Mets

Adam Foster of Project Prospect also tweeted about Martinez’s potential:

As a 1B, I think he has 30+ HR potential and could put up a wOBA around .360 RT @MeanyMikey: Any projections for F-Mart?

It’s worth next to nothing, but Martinez has been productive in his 20 plate appearances this spring, going 7-for-17 (.412) with two doubles, and a home run.  I think more importantly than a few base hits, or even some power, is that he’s drawn three walks and fanned four times.  That’s a very nice piece of strike zone control.
I also pointed out that he needs a better nickname than F-Mart, which just sounds boring and cheap.

Rushing the Kids
Good job by Rob Castellano at Amazin’ Avenue for picking up on a really good piece of Baseball Prospectus research about how teams promote their young players.
Here’s the takehome: for the period of 2005-2009 Mets’ position players had the fewest Minor League AB and their pitchers had the fewest IP, by a lot.  The average WARP generated by all Mets in their first two seasons in this five year sample was second from the bottom, better only than the Mariners.
Sure, injuries at the big league level play a part, but other players on other teams get injured.  The Mets just didn’t have the organizational depth to cover for those injuries, and they rushed guys to the big leagues before they were ready to contribute.
It’s pretty damning stuff about the prior regime.

Two other tangentially points:

1. even though BPro has added a whole bunch of new writers recently, I’ve found that my consumption of BPro material is way, way down from my 2007 peak.  Anyone else?

2. I wrote an article for the 2010 Amazin’ Avenue Annual on the Mets propensity to rush prospects under the leadership of Omar Minaya and Tony Bernazard.

Chicken and Waffles and the Next Great Ballpark Food
CNBC.com and the Savannah Sand Gnats are running a promo to vote on the next great culinary addition to Historic Grayson Stadium for the 2011 season.
You can go vote here.
I voted for the stadium style Chicken and waffles for the meal and the grilled smores panini with nutella for desert.

Kevin Goldstein has his list of the 101 Top Prospects in baseball up today at Baseball Prospectus.  It’s free and he’s doing a chat this afternoon.

He’s got Jenrry Mejia at #45, Matt Harvey at #75 and Wilmer Flores at #98.

For the record, here are the three guys above and below each young Met.

Messin’ with Mejia
42. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Diamondbacks
43. Drew Pomeranz, RHP, Indians
44. Nick Franklin, SS, Mariners
45. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Mets
46. Billy Hamilton, 2B/SS, Reds
47. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs
48. Casey Kelly, RHP, Padres

Hangin’ with Harvey
72. Kenley Jansen, RHP, Dodgers
73. Jake McGee, LHP, Rays
74. Michael Choice, OF, Athletics
75. Matt Harvey, RHP, Mets
76. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Royals
77. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Royals
78. Jurickson Profar, SS, Rangers

Flores’ Friends
95. A.J. Cole, RHP, Nationals
96. Guillermo Pimentel, OF, Mariners
97. Jaff Decker, OF, Padres
98. Wilmer Flores, SS, Mets
99. Trayvon Robinson, OF, Dodgers
100. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Red Sox
101. Donavan Tate, OF, Padres

The prospect rankings are coming fast and furious this time of year.  Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has his up and it’s free today, so definitely go read it.

Five-Star Prospects

1. Jenrry Mejia, RHP

Four-Star Prospects

2. Matt Harvey, RHP

Three-Star Prospects

3. Wilmer Flores, SS

4. Cesar Puello, OF

5. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF

6. Reese Havens, 2B

7. Fernando Martinez, OF

8. Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B

9. Cory Vaughn, OF

Two-Star Prospects

10. Lucas Duda, 1B/OF

11. Darrell Ceciliani, OF

Note that he only has two pitchers in the Top 11.  However, the next seven guys from 12-18 are all pitchers.

Of guys in Baseball America’s Top 10 list, only Brad Holt is excluded here to make room for Cory Vaughn and Darrell Ceciliani, a decision I agree with whole-heartedly.

In Monday’s edition of Baseball Prospectus’ Future Shock, Kevin Goldstein lists 10 minor leaguers (five pitchers and five hitters) whose season stat lines were a bit misleading.  Basically its a list of prospects who are not as good as their numbers would indicate.  This is not a good list to be on.  Two Mets prospects made the list: Dillon Gee and Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

Frankly I was not shocked to see Gee on the list, but I was a little surprised to see Nieuwenhuis appear on this list.  Here are Goldstein’s comments on Gee and Nieuwenhuis:

Gee:

He struck out 165 in 161 innings—leading the International League in that category—and then posted a 2.18 ERA in five MLB appearances. Mets fans want to view him as a rotation answer. Here’s the good part: he can throw up to five pitches. Here’s the bad part: none of them (maybe his changeup) can miss bats consistently at the major-league level. In 33 IP with the Mets, he K’d only 17. Look at that stat more than the ERA; he’s a fifth starter in all likelihood.

Goldstein’s comments are eerily similar to Toby’s from last week.  Gee had success in his brief stint with the Mets, but his overall #’s would indicate he was more lucky than good.  Turn those numbers into a full season, and it won’t be pretty.

Nieuwenhuis:

Nieuwenhuis can hit and has gap-to-average power. The issue is more a matter of context. Evaluated as a center fielder (his current position), Nieuwenhuis is a potential above-average starter. The bad news is that his defensive reviews are marginal, as for many talent evaluators, he lacks the speed and instincts to stay up the middle. He might lack the run production ability to become an everyday corner outfielder in the bigs, though.

So, with the bat, he has the “potential to be an above average starter” in centerfield, but the concerns are on the defensive end.  Obviously his ability to stay in CF, is the key to his long-term value.  If moved to a corner spot, I believe his ability to hit lefties and to make enough contact are the big issues for him moving forward.