This is another interesting group with Dillon Gee and Pedro Beato providing big league value right now.  Cory Vaughn was the Gnats’ most dangerous offensive player in the first half, but it’s a long way from the SAL to the big leagues and, as Darrell Ceciliani and Juan Urbina have found out, even further from the short-season levels to the bigs.

Part 5 on players ranked 16-20 is here.  Part 4 on players ranked 21-25 is here.  Part 3 on players ranked 26-30 is here.  Part 2 on players originally ranked 31-36 is here. Part 1 on players originally ranked 36-41 is here.   Each player’s name links back to his original scouting report from before the 2011 season.

#11 – Dillon Gee
What I thought: Actually, Dr. Pangloss, my optimistic friend said, “Gee won’t be any kind of star, but could well stick as a competent (and cheap) fourth or fifth starter.”
Reality: And by some measures, Gee has been even better than that.  Gee is third on the Mets’ pitching staff in WAR (1.0), trailing only Jon Niese (2.1) and Chris Capuano (1.0) and Capuano by fractions of a win.  Gee appears due for some regression as his .247 BABIP looks unsustainable.  Still, with an ERA of 3.76 and an xFIP of 4.19, he should be able to manage that slide.  His xFIP is fourth among the starters, behind Niese (3.32), Capuano (3.72) and R.A. Dickey (3.88).
Stock: UP.  He’s a big league starter and potentially a back-end guy on a playoff team.

#12 – CF Darrell Ceciliani

What I thought: The chops to play centerfield combined with some speed and hitting ability made Ceciliani one to watch.
Reality: The BABIP monster can be a merciless foe, huh?  His BABIP has dropped from .435 in the New York-Penn League in 2010 to .303 in Savannah, dragging his average down from .351 to .244.  Ceciliani, who turned 21 in June has essentially maintained his strikeout rate, while bumping his walk rate, which is nice.  Notice that the extra-base hit rate is down against tougher pitchers.
Stock: Down.

Basic

Advanced

#13 – RF Cory Vaughn
What I thought: Vaughn was described as having nice tools for right field and was coming off a record-setting performance with 14 homers for Brooklyn in 2010.
Reality: The 22-year-old Vaughn does have a big league body, and showed off a nice arm in right, and enough speed for center in a pinch. He had a more advanced approach than I expected, but less power.  Historic Grayson Stadium, the Gnats’ home park, robs hitters of homers and extra-base because it’s so big to the gaps.  However, I didn’t see a ton of loft in Vaughn’s swing.  All the same, he was the most dangerous hitter on a Gnats’ team that won the first half title, so I think at some point, pitchers in the South Atlantic League stopped giving him much to hit.
A combined 19 hit-by-pitches between Savannah and St. Lucie sustain his on-base percentage.  That’s fine, drawing HBP is a repeatable skill but it does expose Vaughn to some injury risk down the road.
It turns out Vaughn’s extra-base hit rate is a tick below the average for right fielders who collectively have extra-base hits in 8% of their plate appearances.
Stock: Holding until he shows more power.
Basic

Advanced

#14 – LHP Juan Urbina
What I thought: The scouting reports on the projectable lefty with big league bloodlines were nice.
Reality: He’s been hit very hard in five starts as an 18-year old in the Appalachian League.  Sure, he’s young, but he’s giving up a ton of hits and walking batters.   I read the numbers to suggest that he doesn’t have swing and miss stuff at all.  I don’t want to make too much of five starts, but it’s a concerning beginning.
Stock: Slipping.

Basic

Advanced

#15 – RHP Pedro Beato
What I thought: Beato would fit nicely into the Mets bullpen.
Reality: That happened.  His 0.2 WAR is third among Mets relievers behind K-Rod and Bobby Parnell, which is to say, he’s up to #2 now.  His 5.31 K/9 is strangely low given his fastball, but it’s worked for Beato.
Stock: Up.  He’s a big leaguer now.

AAA: @ Buffalo Bisons 8, Pawtucket Red Sox 1

Dillon Gee’s second outing was much better than his first as he picked up the first win by a Bisons’ starter Tuesday.  His line: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K.  Gee told Bisons.com: “I got them to hit my pitches tonight and luckily the defense did a great job… I felt a little bit more in control tonight; all my pitches were a little bit sharper tonight. I was locating better than I did last time, and again the run support definitely eases the game, I got to give credit to those guys.”

Gee’s strong start, coupled with the Mets rainout Tuesday, had the beat writers speculating on Twitter that Gee would get the nod for the Mets in Atlanta Sunday.

“Those guys” included 1B Nick Evans who was 2-4 with a homer and 3B Zach Lutz who was 2-4 with a double and a jack.  With three doubles and a homer in five games, Lutz is hitting .300/.333/.600.  SS Ruben Tejada was 1-4 and now has a hit in five of the first six of the Bisons games.

AA: @ Erie Sea Wolves (DET) 7, Binghamton Mets 6
The B-Mets committed four errors in this one, and the last one was the costliest as reliever Johnny Lujan’s errant throw to second base wound up in center field and allowed the winning run to score in the bottom of the ninth.
The B-Mets bats had to deal with Tigers top prospect Jacob Turner. The top two spots in the order, SS Jordany Valdespin (2-4, 2 RBI) and 2B Josh Satin (3-5, R)  were up to the challenge, accounting for half of the B-Mets 10 hits.

Josh Stinson was ok: 6 IP, 8 H, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 5 go/5 ao.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6’1”/195

Acquired: 21^st rd 2007 (U Texas at Arlington)

Born: 4/28/86 (Cleborne, TX)

2010 Rank: #22

Why Ranked Here: Gee climbed 11 spots over his ranking last year, by staying healthy and having a very fine season for AAA Buffalo that landed him in the big leagues in September.  At this point, Gee’s big league readiness outweighs the potential of others beneath him.  However, he lands outside the Top 10, because I don’t see a big ceiling here.

The signings of Chris Young and Chris Capuano more or less denied Gee a chance to break Spring Training as the Mets’ fifth starter.  However, assuming that he’s healthy, a return to the big leagues is a matter of when, not if.  Teams always need more than five starters.  Some need seven or eight in a year.

Gee works off a fastball that averages 89 mph.  That’s a tick below average from a right-hander, but it plays up because he locates well.  He’s worked to add a curveball to his arsenal to go along with his slider and changeup.  In his big league starts, he threw his changeup almost 17% of the time, his slider 15.5% and his curve 8%.  The changeup grades out the best of the breaking balls, with the slider second.

With 33 innings of 2.15 ERA baseball, Gee has already given the Mets more Major League value than the team will reap from all but a few players on this list. Citi Field’s spacious dimensions should help Gee who is very much a fly-ball pitcher.

2010: In 2010, he led the International League and set a new Buffalo Bisons’ single-season record with 165 strikeouts.  He was second in the IL, behind Rays prospect Jeremy Hellickson, with 9.20 K/9.  Gee was durable too, tying for the IL lead with 28 starts. He attacks the strike zone too, walking only 2.3 batters per nine.  He also led the league in home runs allowed (23) on his way to a pedestrian 4.96 ERA.

The Mets rewarded Gee with a look in September and, because baseball is a funny game, his Major League ERA was lower than his minor league ERA even though his peripherals regressed.  In 33 big league innings, he fanned 17 (4.6 K/9) and walked 15 (4.1 BB/9) while his ERA dropped to a sparkling 2.18 thanks in part to a .232 BABIP.

No pitcher could put up a 2.13 ERA in the big leagues over a full season with a K/BB ratio of 17/15.  On the other hand, Gee has a minor league track record full of strikes.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Gee won’t be any kind of star, but could well stick as a competent (and cheap) fourth or fifth starter.

Debbie Downer Says: Meh.  Do back-end guys win pennants?

Projected 2011 Start: AAA Buffalo

MLB Arrival: September 2010.  Ok, cheating.  He’ll be back soon.

In Monday’s edition of Baseball Prospectus’ Future Shock, Kevin Goldstein lists 10 minor leaguers (five pitchers and five hitters) whose season stat lines were a bit misleading.  Basically its a list of prospects who are not as good as their numbers would indicate.  This is not a good list to be on.  Two Mets prospects made the list: Dillon Gee and Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

Frankly I was not shocked to see Gee on the list, but I was a little surprised to see Nieuwenhuis appear on this list.  Here are Goldstein’s comments on Gee and Nieuwenhuis:

Gee:

He struck out 165 in 161 innings—leading the International League in that category—and then posted a 2.18 ERA in five MLB appearances. Mets fans want to view him as a rotation answer. Here’s the good part: he can throw up to five pitches. Here’s the bad part: none of them (maybe his changeup) can miss bats consistently at the major-league level. In 33 IP with the Mets, he K’d only 17. Look at that stat more than the ERA; he’s a fifth starter in all likelihood.

Goldstein’s comments are eerily similar to Toby’s from last week.  Gee had success in his brief stint with the Mets, but his overall #’s would indicate he was more lucky than good.  Turn those numbers into a full season, and it won’t be pretty.

Nieuwenhuis:

Nieuwenhuis can hit and has gap-to-average power. The issue is more a matter of context. Evaluated as a center fielder (his current position), Nieuwenhuis is a potential above-average starter. The bad news is that his defensive reviews are marginal, as for many talent evaluators, he lacks the speed and instincts to stay up the middle. He might lack the run production ability to become an everyday corner outfielder in the bigs, though.

So, with the bat, he has the “potential to be an above average starter” in centerfield, but the concerns are on the defensive end.  Obviously his ability to stay in CF, is the key to his long-term value.  If moved to a corner spot, I believe his ability to hit lefties and to make enough contact are the big issues for him moving forward.

I wanted to change the tone of the entire Dillon Gee discussion.  It’s pretty remarkable at all that as a 21st round draft pick in 2007, he’s put himself in the conversation for a starting rotation job in 2011.  Twenty-first round picks are not supposed to be big leaguers.

Gee is the only player from the 21st round in 2007 to reach the Major Leagues with the team that drafted him.  The only other Major Leaguer: the White Sox Chris Sale.  The Rockies took a gamble on Sale with the eighth pick of the 21st round but he did not sign.  Instead, he went to Florida Gulf Coast University and transformed himself into a first round pick of the White Sox this summer.   After 10.1 innings in the minors, he was dropped directly in the Sox bullpen where he’s been very good.

Ten players, including Sale, did not sign with the team that drafted them.  Of the 20 players who signed, 11 were out of affiliated baseball in 2010.  Only seven of the 30 picks in the round had made it to AA by 2010.  Only one other player, the Yankees infielder Justin Synder has played at AAA for the team who drafted him in ’07; he had a whopping six at bats at triple-A this summer.

So, whatever Gee turns into, whether it’s a fifth starter, middle reliever, or less, the Mets scouting and player development folks can already pat themselves on the back and smile and nod for already deriving more value from the 21st round of the 2007 draft than every other team in baseball.

The complete 21st round of the 2007 draft follows below the jump.

(more…)

“H.W.” practically screams at me:

You have not written anything about Gee over his last two starts against what you would call  ”real” major league lineups!  The best era logged in first 4 mlb starts by a Mets pitcher since 1995 and you don’t have anything to say??  Why??  You owe this kid an apology for your lack of being a prognosticator!!  You need to look beyond the stat line.  Go back and look at the film of him being a pitcher.  Keeping the mlb bats guessing by not throwing what they would normally look for even in a hitters count.  Plus, he sets them up.  He undisputedly (sic), has had successin 4 quality starts at the mlb level.  So, suck up your pride and tell
everyone you were wrong when you said it would be ugly or you didn’t believe it would go well.

Couple things here.
1. Four starts is a really silly way to do analysis, but I’ll bite.  And no, I won’t be apologizing.
2. As Matt wrote yesterday: “Gee is the first pitcher to make his major-league debut for the Mets and post an ERA of 2.00 or lower over his first four starts with the club since Robert Person posted an identical record and ERA in his first four starts in the majors, spanning the 1995 and 1996 seasons.”
3. To be blunt, Robert Person was not a very good pitcher.  He was a back end guy who had his moments and lasted parts of eight seasons in the big leagues with a career record of 51-42 with a 4.64 ERA, 4.82 FIP and 5.69 FIP.  The point is, anyone, even rookies, even rookies who don’t project to be stars, can have a few good starts in a row.
4. On December 20, 1996, the Mets made one of their best trades in team history, shipping Person to the Toronto Blue Jays for John Olerud and cash.  He pitched two years with the Blue Jays before they shipped him to the Phillies.  He had his best season as a Philly in 2000 when he made 28 starts and set career bests with 8.5 K/9, 3.63 ERA (minimum 20 IP), and 3.5 WAR.  He ok in 2001 putting up a 1.8 WAR and a 4.19 ERA in 33 starts with the Phillies but nothing special.  After 11.2 innings and a 7.71 ERA with the Red Sox in 2003, Person was out of baseball.
5. As for Gee himself, yes, he’s been better than I expected.  Really, no one could have expected him to put up a 2.00 ERA with six runs allowed total in his first 27 Major League innings.  And here’s the important point, he has not pitched as well as his 2.00 ERA might suggest.  His peripherals just don’t support anything close to this level of performance.  He has a FIP of 4.28 and an XFIP of 5.04.  He’s walked 12 and struck out 15.  His BABIP is .207.  His LOB% is 88.2%.
If you’re new around here, what do all of those numbers mean?
—-FIP is Fangraphs Fielding Independent Pitching that adjusts for park and league and is scaled to look like ERA.  It includes only walks, home runs, HBP and strikeouts.
—-Since home run rates are a function of flyball rates, XFIP uses fly-ball rate, which is more stable year-to-year instead of pure home run rate, which fluctuates.  In Gee’s case, he has a HR/FB% of 5.9% instead of the league average of 10.6%.  In AAA this year, Gee’s HR/FB% was 12.4% (per minorleaguesplits.com).  When his HR/FB% regresses back toward normal, his ERA will rise back towards his FIP and his xFIP.
— BABIP usually rests around .300.  Gee’s is .207.  That too will rise.
— LOB% averages 72% and all but the most elite pitchers, who allow the fewest baserunners, show little ability to control LOB%.  This too will normalize.
6. So lets say that Citi Field’s spacious dimensions help Dillon Gee keep his HR/FB% a little bit both below his AAA rate and below normal and allow him to outperform his xFIP consistently.  We’re looking at a guy who should have an ERA around 4.50.
7. The bottom line.  Depending on what else happens this off-season, Dillon Gee will most likely go to Spring Training with a shot to win a job at the back of the Mets big league rotation.  He could turn into back end starter, which is essentially the pitcher his peripherals say he is now, but I don’t think he’ll be better than that.
8.  So no, no apologies from me.

By the end of Friday, maybe even today, we’ll take a look at all of the players who won Sterling Awards as their Met’s team’s MVP this season.

We’ll start at the top, where Dillon Gee, was named the Sterling Award Winner for AAA Buffalo.  How bitter sweet an award must that be?  This is the “Hey, man, you were really good, but not good enough to get a call-up before September” award.

Gee, who’s been outstanding his two big league starts finished AAA with a much more ordinary 4.96, but set a new Bisons’ single-season record with 165 strikeouts.  He missed the final half of the 2009 season with shoulder problems, rehabbed instead of turning to surgery, and returned strong in 2010.  He was durable,  tying for the International League in starts (28)  and finishing third in innings pitched (162.2), while leading the circuit in strikeouts.  His K/9 of 9.20 was second in the IL behind only Tampa’s Jeremy Hellickson.  He was also was second in HR allowed (23) and led the league in HBP (13).  Leading any minor league, but especially AAA in counting stats is a slightly dubious honor, the player was good enough to succeed at the level without moving up.

I think I’ve written about Gee a lot recently.  Earlier this week, I pointed out that pitchers’ with Gee’s velocity around 90 mph, have a wide range, but even among those who make enough starts to qualify for the league leaderboard, it’s a below average group.  Towards the end of his AAA season, I expressed concern and more concern about Gee’s home run rate.  For me, in the minors its that I think think that Gee will give up home runs at exactly the same rate as he did in AAA.  It’s that if he is giving up that much solid contact to AAA hitters, he’ll also give up more hard-hit balls when facing MLB hitters, who are even better.

I’m looking forward to seeing Gee pitch more this month.  I think he has a chance to stick at the back end of a big league rotation, but as a 21st round draft pick, he’s overcome some major odds just to reach the big leagues.