AAA: @ Buffalo Bisons 12, Pawtucket Red Sox 4

We’ll start with Dillon Gee (13-7, 4.87): 6.2 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 3 HR.
I was watching this one not on SNY, but on MiLB.tv running the SNY feed.  MiLB.tv, because it’s encrypted with windows media, makes it just barely worth it on a mac, but I was disappointed there was no radar gun on Gee all night.   Generally he located well, with a fastball that the Buffalo broadcasters described as topping out at 91.  That, and the types of swings he was getting, suggests he wasn’t above 89-90 mph most of the night.  He used his changeup and curveball.  It’s tough to be too precise commenting on pitches while watching in a few inch-square box.  However, the curve, which he didn’t use that much, stuck out to me as an improved offering.

And then there were the three home runs.  When he made a mistake, it was up, and the Paw Sox crushed it.  Josh Reddick’s second home run was a bomb; it cleared Heron’s Landing in right field in Buffalo.
Here’s the pitch.  Fastball.  Up.

I didn’t see the third home run because the broadcast was gushing on a stumbling play made by Russ Adams at second base.

If you want to believe that Gee can help an MLB staff, I’m not here to convince you otherwise this morning, but:
- his ERA is pushing 5 in AAA
- and the home runs are a major concern.
— Hitters are better and more powerful at the MLB level. If AAA hitters are punching it over the wall with regularity, what happens against the best in the world?

LF Lucas Duda was 2-3 with a double, an RBI and two walks.  Adding his AA and AAA work, he’s sitting at .307/.394/.643 with 36 doubles and 23 homers.  Matt Eddy at Baseball America did a really good piece on Duda on Monday.  Duda explains that a broken wrist as a freshman in 2005, kept him from hitting for power in college:

“After that, it was tough to get to the inside pitch,” he said, “So that’s when my opposite-field hitting approach came into to play. I just wasn’t able to pull the inside pitch. I didn’t have the quickness inside.”

Now, though, he’s ripping everything:

“He doesn’t get cheated up there,” Columbus manager Mike Sarbaugh said. “But at the same time, he’s got a good swing, and he covers the plate.”

CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis was 1-5 with a double and 2 RBI and a strange error in center.
RF Russ Adams homered twice and drove home four.
SNY also showed the video of 2B Justin Turner hurting his knee on Sunday.  His looked like he lost his footing on the wet grass before tumbling and straining his knee – it didn’t look fun.

Dillon Gee set a new Bisons’ strikeout record last night.  Even so, despite a sparkling 4.2 K/BB I cannot make an argument based on Gee’s stats that he’s ready to be an asset to the Major League team.  Lets compare him the International League averages across a couple of key rate categories.

As the chart above makes plain, he strikes out more guys than the average AAA pitcher, walks fewer but gives up more home runs, and has a higher batting average against to go along with a higher BABIP against.  There could be some element of luck involved, but the Bisons have been trotting out a pretty solid defensive team behind him, so I read the numbers as suggesting that when batters do make contact against Gee, they’re hitting it harder relatively than they do against the average IL pitcher.

I don’t see much in Gee’s splits to tell me he’s ready now and wasn’t earlier.  Do you you?  Even in August, when he owns a pretty 26 strikeouts against four walks, he’s allowed 13 runs in 24.1 innings.

If his results at the AAA level are below average, what will happen against MLB competition?

If you believe that his home run rates are fluky and that the average (and average on balls in play) is the result of shaky defense, then you’ll look at all of this and say, “Oh, he should be starting at the back end of a big league rotation.”  I think we’ll see that in September, but I’m not convinced it’s going to go well.

Friday (Completed Saturday): @ Toledo Mud Hens 12, Buffalo Bisons 6
Saturday: @ Toledo Mud Hens 5, Buffalo Bisons 4
Sunday: @ Toledo Mud Hens 2, Buffalo Bisons 0

GEE and STONER Are What They Are
Coming off four strong starts that ranged between effective and excellent, Dillon Gee (9-6, 4.82) was ripped for six runs, all earned, on nine hits including two home runs, in four innings on Friday.
While Tobi Stoner has not had Gee’s brilliant starts, but he’s also avoided the worst of his blowups.  Saturday, Stoner (5-8, 5.67) gave up five runs on nine hits, including one home run, while walking one and fanning four in five innings.
ERA is hardly perfect, but the IL has averaged a 4.14 ERA this year.  Both Gee and Stoner are above that mark.  Neither is ready to help a MLB team.
Gee’s the more interesting of the two.  In his four July starts, Gee has 30 strikeouts against just two walks in 25.2 IP to go along with four home runs and a 4.21 ERA.

Lucas Duda is Slowing Down
Despite going 0-4 in Friday and Sunday’s game, the big LF pounded out a double and a home run on Saturday.  He’s at .291/.355/.638 in 34 games in AAA and .189/.268/.432 in his last ten.

Hits Scarce for F-Mart
Despite a home run Saturday, his 10th, Fernando Martinez has just three hits, including a double and a home run in his last ten games while walking once and fanning 12 times for a .176/.200/.471 line.  He’s at .244/.303/.442 overall at age 21.  He’s still extraordinarily young for the league, but at some point, he actually has to start producing.

Slump
The Bisons have lost five games in a row.

The Bisons play a day game today at noon so I’ll be listening to Ben Wagner and friends in the office.

AAA: @ Buffalo Bisons 2, Gwinnett Braves 1
As Walt Clyde Frazier might say, if he broadcast baseball, Dillon Gee is wheelin and dealin’ again.  His Sunday line: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K.
Gee in July: 21.2 IP, 14 H, 2.49 ERA, 7 R, 2 HR, 2 BB, 25 K.  This impressive run comes on the back of an rough June (7.12 ERA, 41 H, 5 HR, 30.1 IP).  With Gee pitching like this, how many more ugly starts will the Mets endure from Hisanori Takahashi before giving Gee a shot?
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AA: @ New Hampshire Fisher Cats 6, Binghamton Mets 2
A third inning grand slam against Mark Cohoon was too much for the B-Mets to overcome in this one.  Cohoon (1-2, 7.03) gave up six runs, all earned on six hits while walking one and fanning seven.
LF Sean Ratliff (.352/.393/.648 – 30 games) pounded out two doubles in five trips.
CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis (.302/.343/.536) drilled his 15th home run of the year and struck out three times.  He’s tied for sixth in the EL in homers and leads the league in doubles all while hitting leadoff all year.

#20 3B Richard Lucas

Why Ranked Here: I liked Lucas’ strength and ability to use the whole field at the plate.  I thought he had a chance to stay at third.

What Happened: The Mets skipped the 21-year old Lucas, coming off a good year in Kingsport, and a so-so few weeks in the NYP, over Savannah (where Jefry Marte was holding down the hot corner) to St. Lucie, where’s he’s struggled.  He just hasn’t made enough contact in the FSL.  However, his ten home runs are good enough for fifth in the League, so he’s hit for some power.  Now, can he make more contact in the second half?

Stock: Down.

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#21 RHP Eduardo Aldama

Why Ranked Here: He’s flashed a solid average to plus fastball in the Appalachian League last year and the year before in the GCL.

What Happened: The 20-year old has made four appearances in the GCL.  Perhaps he was injured, I’ll have to find out.

Stock: Down.

(Note to self: this was a major over-ranking.)

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#22 RHP Dillon Gee

Why Ranked Here: Coming into the year, he was a command and control RHP with a chance to find a big league roster spot.

What Happened: The 24-year old has been all over the place at AAA this year, mixing five outings with one or zero earned runs allowed with six in which he’s allowed five or more earned runs.  He’s striking out nearly a batter an inning, but he’s allowing over a hit an inning, and 1.5 HR/9 which illustrates how hittable he’s been when he’s  in the strike zone.  His changeup is his best off-speed pitch along with a fastball that’s mostly upper 80s, below average for a RHP.

Stock: Down.

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#23 LHP Robert Carson

Why Ranked Here: I liked that Carson is a big, loose-limbed LHP with a plus fastball.

What Happened: Like the whole St. Lucie rotation, the 21-year old Carson got off to dreadful start.  In April, he owned a 7.07 ERA.  He fought his way through May and June with a K/BB of 1.9 (42/22) and an ERA of 3.94.  In his most recent two starts in July, however, he’s allowed just three earned runs in 13 innings for a 2.08 ERA with 12 strikeouts against two walks.  Has he turned the corner?  The Mets think so.

Here’s Mets Pitching Coordinator Rick Waits discussing Carson:

He’s a completely different pitcher than when he was here last year.  He’s more powerful and keeping that good fastball into the seventh and eighth innings.  I saw him throw 94 in the eighth inning the other night [editor: 6/28].  His slider is much improved.  He’s starting to understand how important it is to throw the fastball to both sides of the plate.  He has a tendency to want to cut the fastball in [to righties].  … He’s commanding his fastball better to both sides of the plate.

Stock: Holding.  A few more starts like his last two, and it’ll be up and he’ll finish the year in Binghamton.  I’m pretty dogmatic in demanding the following two numberical indicators from prospects in advanced-A:   a K/9 of 9 and a K/BB of at least 2.5.  If Carson can do that for a month, I’ll believe.

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#24 3B Aderlin Rodriguez

Why Ranked Here: He was a big bodied international signee with a big bonus  ($600K) and plus bat speed with serious power potential.

What Happened: Three weeks into the Appy League season and he’s slugging .658 with seven home runs as an 18 year old.    That will play.

Stock: UP.  Way UP.

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#25 CF Darrell Cecilini

Why Ranked Here: The Mets loved Ceciliani’s plus speed, average or better arm and gap power.

What Happened: He’s had a monster first three weeks for Brooklyn in the New York Penn League at age 19, which is actually a little young for the league.  Early evidence that he’s adapting: he didn’t draw a walk in his first 11 games, but drew seven in his next 12.

Stock: UP.  UP.

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#26 2B Alonzo Harris

Why Ranked Here: He showed power and speed from second base last year as a 19-year old in Kingsport. His raw agility gives him above average range at second, but his hands are the weak link in his defensive game.

What Happened: He’s still fast and he still has some pop in his bat, but his .236/.279/.359 line is very disappointing.  He just swings at everything.  The Mets have worked with him on his approach, and now it comes down to Harris putting it into a game, not just some nights, but every at bat, every night.

Stock: Down

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#27 3B Zach Lutz

Why Ranked Here: Lutz hits when he’s healthy, but he hasn’t been able to stay healthy.

What Happened: Lutz, who turned 24 in June, got off to a great start, hitting .307/.447/.600 in April before slowing down to .196/.317/.353.  He was placed on the AA DL with a left foot fracture on May 25.

Stock: Down.

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#28 LHP Zach Dotson

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Why Ranked Here: Physical lefties with potentially plus fastballs are valuable.

What Happened: Dotson hurt his elbow last summer, and while he did not have surgery, had to spend the whole winter rehabbing and missed all of spring training.  He also missed most of extended spring training, so he’s thrown less than most guys one year out of high school.

His third start was much better than his previous two.

Mets pitching coordinator Rick Waits discussed Dotson last week:

“He’s got a really good arm.  He’s gonna be in the 90s.   He’s got a sharp slider right now, it’s just his delivery isn’t consistent right now.  Right now, he’s just learning how to repeat his delivery.  It’s not a matter of arm strength and it’s not a matter of stuff.”

Stock: Up – he’s throwing well and and he’s  healthy.

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#29 RHP Brant Rustich

Why Ranked Here: I liked that he’s a power pitcher with plus fastball ball and a potentially good slider even though he’s never stayed healthy.  I thought he might shoot up the ranks if he ever stayed healthy.

What Happened: He’s making progress from the stress fracture in his Humerus that ended his 2009 season.

Stock: Down, pending his return to the hill.

- DNP

Bisons’ RHP Dillon Gee enterted last night’s game against Durham having surrendered only 2 runs in his first 18 innings this season. Many, including myself, were calling for his promotion. However last night he came down to earth, allowing 8 hits and 5 runs over 4.2 innings. Here’s what Gee had to say, as quoted by the Buffalo News:

“You never want to be due for one of those [bad starts], but it’s just that I wasn’t making good pitches. And when you make bad pitches in tough situations like that when you have guys on base, you’re going to get hurt. That’s no matter where you’re playing. It’s just one of those things.”

After that performance he’s now 3–0 with a 2.78 ERA in four starts with the Herd, having struck out 22 in 22 innings against just three walks… It’ll be interesting to see how Dillon deals with adversity and bounces back from this, knowing full well the Mets are keeping a close eye on him…

Mets’ starter John Maine was forced to leave Friday night’s 5-2 win against the Braves in the fourth inning due to pain in his left elbow. According to the NY Daily News, he feels he’ll be able to make his next start and even claimed that despite the injury it’s the best he has felt in a long time.

Bottom line is that Maine simply isn’t producing and is rarely hitting 90 mph on the gun with his fastball — so it’s time for Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya to explore other options while the organization tries to figure out what is going on with his velocity… Rather than dipping into the pen (Fernando Nieve, Raul Valdes, or Hisanori Takahashi) for an answer, the organization needs to take a solid look at Bisons right-hander Dillon Gee.

Critics will say he doesn’t throw hard enough, but he has rebounded phenomenally from a shoulder injury that shut him down for the year last May. He’s 3-0 and has allowed just 2 runs with Buffalo in 18 innings… Dillon mixes his pitches extremely well and displays excellent control, similar to that of Rick Reed…

The organization would be best served to leave their bullpen as is currently constructed, including Jenrry Mejia, rather than tinkering with the current alignment and removing an effective lefty out of the pen in Takahashi… plus keep in mind you would be adding to a rotation that already has three southpaws… Gee last pitched on Thursday against Rochester, which lines up rather perfectly with a potential call up and start against the Dodgers on Wednesday evening inside Citi Field…